Ukranian Crisis

[Feanor]

Update.

The "counter-terrorist" operation in Donetsk is resuming. Details of the operation have been leaked by an un-named SBU source, and will include special units because the regular military and MVD have proven unreliable. SpetzNaz units from the SBU and MVD, with borrowed helos and armored vehicles will be used to sweep towns and cities, while the National Guard will provide security.

Government forces have already retaken Svyatogorsk, in northern Donbass.

http://www.voicesevas.ru/news/yugo-vostok/obratnyi-otschyot-vtorzhenie-na-yugo-vos.html
Силовые Ñтруктуры возобновили антитеррориÑтичеÑкую операцию в Донецкой облаÑти
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÌÂÄ Óêðàèíû îò÷èòàëîñü î ïåðâîì óñïåõå âîçîáíîâëåííîé ñèëîâîé îïåðàöèè - îñâîáîæäåíèè Ñâÿòîãîðñêà îò ñåïàðàòèñòîâ

Right Sector is also moving their HQ into Dnepropetrovsk to concentrate their efforts against the pro-Russian forces.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: "Áàíäåðîâñêàÿ àðìèÿ íàêîíåö ïåðåñåêëà Äíåïð": "Ïðàâûé ñåêòîð" åäåò íà þãî-âîñòîê Óêðàèíû "íàâîäèòü ïîðÿäîê"

In the 93rd Mech Bde in Ukraine reservists have revolted. They're being held against their will after being called for "10 days" of training. They've lost their jobs too.

Ðа Украине в 93 отдельной механизированной бригаде пгт. ЧеркаÑÑкое произошел бунт резервиÑтов

In the video you can see the armed men trying to get the unarmed reservists back into their tents. Not all the reservists have even been issued uniforms. You can hear multiple warning shots, but nobody seems impressed.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwQIC37VVuI"]21.04.2014 Вынужденный бунт - YouTube[/nomedia]
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQZnJ8ZinpA"]21.04.2014 Вынужденный бунт чаÑÑ‚ÑŒ 2 - YouTube[/nomedia]

The Dnepropetrovsk airborne brigade is also in nearly the same condition. Yes the same 25th Bde that surrendered weapons and vehicles to the rebels, and has refused orders multiple times in the last few months. Again the mutiny is by crowds of reservists who are being held against their will.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6_ZyZYzUKw"]Призывники ДнепропетровÑкой воздушно-деÑантной бригады на грани бунта - YouTube[/nomedia]

This is a phone conversation with a drafted reservists, who's saying that they were told they were called up for 10 days, now they're being told they will have to serve indefinitely. He mentions the mutiny, the bad conditions, and asks his friend to communicate it to journalists and the public.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7TGWQexGPY"]25-Ñ Ð±Ñ€Ð¸Ð³Ð°Ð´Ð° ВДВ в ДнепропетровÑкой облаÑти. Звонил знакомый Ñержант, мобилизованный на 10 дней - YouTube[/nomedia]

This is a social media site where families and friends of the draftees post information and videos.

https://vk.com/public69556460

Photos from the funeral of the killed militia members and civilians in Slavyansk.

tutuskania:

A western journalist has been detained in Slavyansk.

tutuskania:

Coal miners in Donbass are up in protest. They're demanding higher pay, while the Ukrainian government intends to cut mining subsidies which will shut down said mines entirely.

http://vz.ru/economy/2014/4/23/683565.html

Due to a lack of funds and planes, private planes are being used for border control in Ukraine.

Ðа Украине из-за нехватки ÑредÑтв Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð¾Ñ…Ñ€Ð°Ð½Ñ‹ границы привлекли чаÑÑе Ñамолеты

Subsidized plane tickets to Crimea will become available shortly from Moscow.

*

Lavrov (Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs) has confirmed that Russia has deployed additional troops to the Ukrainian border. They're there in response to the crisis in Ukraine.

Сергей Лавров подтвердил, что Ð*оÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð½Ð°Ð¿Ñ€Ð°Ð²Ð¸Ð»Ð° на роÑÑийÑко-украинÑкую границу дополнительные войÑка

The EU suddenly suggested that use of force in Eastern Ukraine is a bad idea.

http://vz.ru/world/2014/4/23/683588.html

 

[Twain]

I've yet to see an AK-103 in Ukraine. And iirc the RPG thing was debunked on militaryphotos. It's an RPG -26 from the Soviet days.

Think about it, if you're sending your SpN units to Ukraine, why would you give them identifiably Russian weapons? Especially when Ukrainian SBU and MVD arsenals are open, and army weapon convoys are being looted.

Why did Putin send them into crimea with readily identifiable russian weapons? Because he doesn't care about public opinion outside Russia and only a little inside Russia. He knows the west isn't going to interven militarily because the Europeans don't want war and they have to lead the way for any military intervention to have even a remote chance of success.

As to the Ak-103, There are lots of reports of Ak-103s being sighted

Tote und Verletzte in Ost-Ukraine

"Recordings from the city showed a mixed picture. The armed separatists who had on Saturday stormed the public buildings were equipped strikingly professional and uniform. Many of them had assault rifles of the type AK-103, which are used by Russian special forces."

And more here:

"Two Russian radio hosts were conducting live interviews with a female reporter in the occupied building of the Donetsk Oblast Administration. She mentions that the commander is standing next to her and may consent to an interview. He comes to the microphone and introduces himself as “Paramonov, Pavel Vladimorivich. When asked if he is from Donetsk, he answers: “Of course not, I am a resident of the city of Efremov of Tula oblast” (Tula is a Russian province). When asked what he is doing in Donetsk, he answers: “I am helping a brotherly nation to defend its rights.”


The flustered radio hosts understood that a catastrophe had occurred. They quickly interrupted the Russian commander, told him to give the mike back to the reporter, with the excuse that the commander must be very busy, so we must stop the interview."

You Tube Shatters Russian Lies About Troops In Ukraine: Putin Denies Truth To Obama - Forbes

Quite a bit more at the link above.

and quite a few pictures here from multiple locations if you look around the website.
Armed Russian Soldiers in Slovyans

The evidence just keeps growing and while it's quite easy to come up with plausible deniability for any one account, I think Occam's razor clearly suggest the most likely conclusion when you consider the large amount of evidence of Russian troops being present. I'm sure it's in relatively small numbers so far but that could change easily.

 

[Feanor]

Why did Putin send them into crimea with readily identifiable russian weapons? Because he doesn't care about public opinion outside Russia and only a little inside Russia. He knows the west isn't going to interven militarily because the Europeans don't want war and they have to lead the way for any military intervention to have even a remote chance of success.

Nonsense. In Crimea there was a clear intent to demonstrate to the locals and to Russians that it was the Russian military at work. Professional Russian observers (like Mokrushin, and CAST) quickly identified (immediately) Russian troops in Crimea as Russian troops. Mokrushin in particular, who had recently visited the Black Sea Fleet Marines Bde identified them positively as Russian military BSF Marines in less then 24 hours after they appeared. In this case no such identifiable equipment or personnel are present.

In Crimea the denials of Russian presence were aimed at foreign press and diplomatic circles intended to confuse and distort the picture long enough to stall a western response. In this case if Russian SpN teams are indeed active, they'd have to stay invisible permanently, keeping the locals in the limelight. This would mean no identifiable equipment. If Putin didn't care, there would be Russian troop columns in Eastern Ukraine, not a few SpN teams.

As to the Ak-103, There are lots of reports of Ak-103s being sighted

Sure. I've seen lots of reports too. Just no rifles.

Here's an AK-103 next to an AK-74M. Now tell me what the differences are (visually!!!) and then show me the photos where you see AK-103s in Eastern Ukraine...

http://content.foto.my.mail.ru/mail/photoshooter/683/h-684.jpg

And if you had bothered to even check wikipedia....

"The AK-103 assault rifle is a derivative of the AK-74M chambered for the 7.62×39mm M43 round"

AK-103 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So do tell... how did these reports identify the AK-103? Measured the bore? Stopped the militia and checked the caliber of their ammo? Took down serial numbers, and matched them against production records?

The evidence just keeps growing and while it's quite easy to come up with plausible deniability for any one account, I think Occam's razor clearly suggest the most likely conclusion when you consider the large amount of evidence of Russian troops being present. I'm sure it's in relatively small numbers so far but that could change easily.

I've gone through mountains of photos, and have posted links to a lot of them here. I don't see anything that looks like Russian military. I see plenty of militia that look like they're professionals (here and there) but the overall actions of the militia have been less then impressive. I don't see anything that isn't accounted by the well established facts that current and ex-MVD soldiers, as well as veterans of Ukrainian Armed Forces are in the militia. Please present me with actual evidence, not conclusions made by other people.

Again none of this means that Russian GRU isn't there. But to positively claim they are we need some serious proof, not internet conspiracy theories.

EDIT: Here's the militaryphotos post dealing with the RPGs. Just like I thought they came from the RPG truck that was looted by locals. Come on, I even posted that in this thread earlier.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forum...Videos*-ONLY&p=7139366&viewfull=1#post7139366

 

[stojo]

Right Sector is also moving their HQ into Dnepropetrovsk to concentrate their efforts against the pro-Russian forces.
[/url]

The same thing as in fromer Yugoslavia.

Mobilization in early 1991. failed (conscript turnout in large cities, for instance Belgrade, was as low as 10% of the planned number), available regular units where utterly incompetent and unreliable (entire army bases where surrendered to separatists, together with the equipment in some cases, even the commander of YPA Air Force, general Anton Tus switched sides, which reminds in great deal of the recent defection of Denys Berezovsky, head of Ukrainian navy).

Hampered by these problems YPA had to turn to extreme right wing radicals, and paramilitary groups, which where the only forces that seemed willing to fight (as it appeares, this is exactly the case with Right Sector, and Ukrainian government).

Although some of these paramilitary groups proved themselves, to a certain extent,in combat missions, their primary activity turned out to be that of looting, arbitrary actions against civilian population and, eventually, committing war crimes on a massive scale.

To make things worse, the very fact that these paramilitaries became important part of Serbian war effort, gave them substantial political leverage, which they used to cover for their criminal activities.

The situation in Ukraine is strikingly similar to this. Government can not rely on its regular forces, so they seem to tolerate provocative actions of Right Sector in the East, which might be extremely dangerous in the long run.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Ukrainian forces stormed a rebel checkpoint north of Slavyansk. 5 unarmed locals are reported dead, the number of wounded is unclear. The Ukrainian forces then retreated, after armed reinforcements came to the checkpoint. A government helicopter was fired on, but sustained minimal damage, and landed safely.

u_96:

Ukrainian sources claim the operation was halted after Russian troop movements near the border. Noteworthy is that the Russian Minister of Defense stated that new "exercises" had begun in response to the Ukrainian counter-terrorist operation.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñïåöîïåðàöèÿ â Ñëàâÿíñêå ïðèîñòàíîâëåíà èç-çà íà÷àâøèõñÿ ó÷åíèé ðîññèéñêîé àðìèè, ñîîáùèëè ÑÌÈ
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ТолÑтый намек

Video of the operation from the Ukrainian side. It looks like one Ukrainian service member was wounded. The forces used look like SBU and MVD SpetzNaz units.

u_96:
u_96:

Another Right Sector activist was captured in Slavyansk. He claims his mission was to photograph the checkpoint.

Colonel Cassad -

It also looks like one more checkpoint was attacked by government troops. Total casualties are claimed at 7 dead, 10 heavily wounded, and up to 30 lightly wounded. There is unconfirmed info of government troops firing on civilian vehicles. So the checkpoints attacked were the Kombikorm checkpoint and the Kharkov-Rostov Highway checkpoint.

Colonel Cassad -
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð² СлавÑнÑке

However the mayor of Slavyansk confirmed 1 dead, and called the rest rumors. Given how messy and confusing things are, I'd wait on a total casualty count.

tutuskania:

In response to the attack, it looks like the rebels armored vehicles are moving forward. Here's a few photos of another checkpoint near Slavyansk.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bl_Md3dIgAA7KO6.jpg
http://im.kommersant.ru/Issues.photo/CORP/2014/04/24/KMO_088197_179492_1_t218_180240.jpg
http://im.kommersant.ru/Issues.photo/CORP/2014/04/24/KMO_088197_179493_1_t218_180311.jpg

In Artemovsk there may have been an attempt to seize an arsenal at a local military unit, but the attempt failed, and there are lots of government troops in the city. Even tanks were sighted.

Colonel Cassad -

Unreliable sources claim that Russian "peacekeepers" are already inside Ukraine.

Добрый Ñыровар - Только что инфа прошла'

According to more reliable sources, Russian troops are moving into position right across the border from Ukraine. Ukrainian forces claim that their own military units are being blocked by locals.

Colonel Cassad -

Here's a video of Russian military vehicles moving in Novoshahtinsk, 10kms from the Ukrainian border. Interestingly enough, the border here is with Donbass. In other words if these troops move across, they won't be meeting government forces, they will immediately be in militia controlled territory.

In the video you can see K1Sh1 based command vehicles, Ural and Kamaz trucks, BTR-80s, BTR-82As, Nona-SVK. Russian troop movements are clearly hasty and improvised. Notive that the military vehicles are interspersed with civilian traffic. This is not safe, nor is it normal practice. Regularly military convoys are separated from civilian traffic by a VAI police escort.

It looks to me like a piece of a Motor-Rifles Btln, and an Arty Battery. Maybe a Battalion Tactical Group.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WnHDc3tWU8#t=27"]ÐовошахтинÑк (Ð’Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ñ‚ÐµÑ…Ð½Ð¸ÐºÐ°) - YouTube[/nomedia]
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4b8zYOhXzg"]24.04.14 ÐовошахтинÑк. Ð’Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ñ‚ÐµÑ…Ð½Ð¸ÐºÐ° - YouTube[/nomedia]

The leader of Donetsk rebels has declared that they will not participate in the presidential election, and will hold their own referendum.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðóêîâîäñòâî äîíåöêèõ ñåïàðàòèñòîâ îòêàçàëîñü îò ó÷àñòèÿ â ïðåçèäåíòñêèõ âûáîðàõ è ãîòîâèò ðåôåðåíäóì

Meanwhile Russian compared the situation in Ukraine with the situation in Georgia, with Lavrov citing defense of Russian citizens as a possible reason for intervention if the Kiev government continues its aggression against its own citizens.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ëàâðîâ ñðàâíèë Äîíáàññ ñ Þæíîé Îñåòèåé è íàçâàë óñëîâèå ââîäà âîéñê íà Óêðàèíó

Also Right Sector has announced they will recruit their members into a new unit, battalion Donbass, to fight the separatists.

http://i-korotchenko.livejournal.com/865961.html

 

[Feanor]

That post got really messy, so I'll summarize what I think happened. The defense of Slavyansk is organized in the following manner. There are 8-10 checkpoints around the city, at all major roads. These checkpoints are manned by 5-30 unarmed locals who stop vehicles and personnel, check papers, and in some cases search them. In the city center armed militia are at the MVD building, the SBU building, and the city administration. They also send out mobile patrols/rapid response teams. There are multiple barricades inside the city, some manned by unarmed locals, some unmanned.

When the government forces attacked, they came from the north (Svyatogorsk direction) and hit two checkpoints. They hit the Rostov-Kharkov Highway checkpoint, and the Kombikorm checkpoint. It appears that they began firing at the checkpoint without positively identifying armed militia, killing the unarmed people there. It looks like they hit the Highway checkpoint first, because an armed militia patrol near Kombikorm moved towards the Highway checkpoint in response to sounds of gunfire and reports of government troops. This patrol came under fire somewhere between the two checkpoints by government forces. It may or may not have made it through to the Highway checkpoint.

Another armed militia group came from the city center towards the Highway checkpoint where it engaged the government troops (possibly together with the other patrol, but maybe not). At this point government troops retreated. At the Kombikorm checkpoint government troops retreated on their own.

It would be easy to conclude that the rebels fought off the government troops, but I don't think that's true. I think the decision came down to cease the counter-terrorist operation due to Russian military movements near the border. This caused government forces to retreat without engaging the rebels further.

 

[Twain]

Feanor here is a poll you were asking for about ukranian opinions

http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2014%20April%2024%20Survey%20of%20Residents%20of%20Ukraine%2C%20April%203-12%2C%202014.pdf


The short and sweet story, even eastern ukranians are overwhelmingly opposed to russian intervention and even a plurality in the east oppose ukranian federation. Like I said, the people causing trouble in the east are a vocal, motivated minority.

 

[Feanor]

Feanor here is a poll you were asking for about ukranian opinions

http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2014%20April%2024%20Survey%20of%20Residents%20of%20Ukraine%2C%20April%203-12%2C%202014.pdf


The short and sweet story, even eastern ukranians are overwhelmingly opposed to russian intervention and even a plurality in the east oppose ukranian federation. Like I said, the people causing trouble in the east are a vocal, motivated minority.

It's an interesting poll, and has a lot of info. But at the end are three little stamps that make me wonder.

USAID, IRI, and The Gallup Organization. US backed media sources and pro-democracy organizations funded by the US. If a Russian government backed NGO was funding anti-government political activity in the US it wouldn't be called supporting democracy, it would be called some very bad names. These organization have engaged in that kind of activity in the FSU states quite actively. So while that doesn't mean this poll is a lie, or should even be discounted, I'm going to take it with a grain of salt.

 

[Twain]

It's an interesting poll, and has a lot of info. But at the end are three little stamps that make me wonder.

USAID, IRI, and The Gallup Organization. US backed media sources and pro-democracy organizations funded by the US. If a Russian government backed NGO was funding anti-government political activity in the US it wouldn't be called supporting democracy, it would be called some very bad names. These organization have engaged in that kind of activity in the FSU states quite actively. So while that doesn't mean this poll is a lie, or should even be discounted, I'm going to take it with a grain of salt.

I was expecting that type of reply. While USAID and IRI are definitely western biased, gallup most certainly is not. Gallup's long term business relies on accurate, unbiased results no matter what. It relies on it's reputation for accuracy and neutrality otherwise no one would trust them and they would suffer business losses because of it. Now having said that, USAID and IRI paid for the poll, if it had shown results that were not favorable, USAID and IRI simply would not have published it. The fact that they did publish it in no way detracts from the accuracy of the poll. This isn't russia, gallup does not cook the results to satisfy their clients. If the clients don't like the results, they simply don't release them. You might want to google Gallup and do some research before you criticize the results.

 

[gf0012-aust]

The short and sweet story, even eastern ukranians are overwhelmingly opposed to russian intervention and even a plurality in the east oppose ukranian federation. Like I said, the people causing trouble in the east are a vocal, motivated minority.

that's consistent with "trusted" intel coming back

 

[Feanor]

I was expecting that type of reply. While USAID and IRI are definitely western biased, gallup most certainly is not. Gallup's long term business relies on accurate, unbiased results no matter what. It relies on it's reputation for accuracy and neutrality otherwise no one would trust them and they would suffer business losses because of it. Now having said that, USAID and IRI paid for the poll, if it had shown results that were not favorable, USAID and IRI simply would not have published it. The fact that they did publish it in no way detracts from the accuracy of the poll. This isn't russia, gallup does not cook the results to satisfy their clients. If the clients don't like the results, they simply don't release them. You might want to google Gallup and do some research before you criticize the results.

You may be right though, I still have my suspicions. That having been said the crux of this conflict, like I already mentioned, is not separatism or even so much pro-Russian sentiment, as it is anti-Kiev sentiment. These people are not so much enamored with Russia as they are sick and tired of their own oligarchs who remain the same, no matter who's in office.

What I do know is that the anti-Maydan protests in the east were huge, and the pro-Maydan rallies tiny, and frequently carried out by "imported" activists from out of the region. What I also know is that the counter-terrorist operation was halted by human shields of civilians disarming the soldiers. None of this indicates a tiny minority. And let's keep in mind, you can have a perfectly honest poll produce whatever results you want, by asking the questions the right way, and by asking the right questions.

As for federalization, lets not forget the protesters didn't propose it. Russia did. Most of them don't know what it would entail, and certainly don't trust the government to stick to any verbal or written promises. Why would they be for it? Federalization is a good way for Russia to weaken the central government of Ukraine, and guarantee gridlock on things like decisions to join the EU at the expense of Eastern Ukrainian manufacturing. Is it a good way to protect the interests of those people, or guarantee them a government that gives a sh*t? I doubt it.

Anyways. I will do my research on Gallup. You've gotten me interested.

One more thing to keep in mind. If the protesters had taken SBU buildings, or the pro-government forces hadn't used violence, Kharkov and Nikolaev would today be in the same situation as Lugansk and Donetsk. And the marches in Odessa weren't tiny either.

 

[overlander]

A locally published poll made online in eastern Ukraine, the majority of people supports joining Russia

google translator.

ALL RESULTS
Kharkiv region (4744 )
Being part of Ukraine:
29% ( votes: 1360)
Being part of the Russian Federation :
51 % ( votes: 2398 )
Independent Republic :
6% ( votes: 297)
As part of Ukraine as a subject of the federation :
15 % (votes: 689 )

Lugansk region ( 4406 )
Being part of Ukraine:
12% ( votes: 530)
Being part of the Russian Federation :
71 % ( votes: 3124 )
Independent Republic :
6% ( votes: 260 )
As part of Ukraine as a subject of the federation :
11% (votes: 492 )

Donetsk region ( 10761 )
Being part of Ukraine:
12% ( votes: 1281 )
Being part of the Russian Federation :
70 % ( votes: 7561 )
Independent Republic :
8% ( votes: 876 )
As part of Ukraine as a subject of the federation :
10% ( votes: 1043 )

Zaporizhia Region ( 1475 )
Being part of Ukraine:
23% (votes: 339 )
Being part of the Russian Federation :
57 % ( votes: 847)
Independent Republic :
5 % (Votes : 77)
As part of Ukraine as a subject of the federation :
14% (votes: 212)

Kherson region ( 767 )
Being part of Ukraine:
24% (votes: 186 )
Being part of the Russian Federation :
61 % ( votes: 465 )
Independent Republic :
3% ( Votes : 26)
As part of Ukraine as a subject of the federation :
12% ( Votes : 90)

Odessa Region ( 2392 )
Being part of Ukraine:
21% (votes: 493 )
Being part of the Russian Federation :
56 % ( votes: 1350 )
Independent Republic :
9% ( votes: 208)
As part of Ukraine as a subject of the federation :
14% (votes: 341 )

Mykolaiv region ( 932 )
Being part of Ukraine:
22 % (votes: 201)
Being part of the Russian Federation :
57 % ( votes: 530)
Independent Republic :
5 % (Votes: 49 )
As part of Ukraine as a subject of the federation :
16 % (votes: 152 )

Dnipropetrovsk region ( 2289 )
Being part of Ukraine:
27% (votes: 611 )
Being part of the Russian Federation :
52 % ( votes: 1192 )
Independent Republic :
5 % ( votes: 104 )
As part of Ukraine as a subject of the federation :
17% (votes: 382 )
Total: ( 27766 )

If you want to see in russian make copy - paste of this link.

ЧеÑтное голоÑование Юго-ВоÑтока Украины

 

[bdique]

Feanor here is a poll you were asking for about ukranian opinions

http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2014%20April%2024%20Survey%20of%20Residents%20of%20Ukraine%2C%20April%203-12%2C%202014.pdf


The short and sweet story, even eastern ukranians are overwhelmingly opposed to russian intervention and even a plurality in the east oppose ukranian federation. Like I said, the people causing trouble in the east are a vocal, motivated minority.

Uhm, just want to point out that while Gallup might be reputable, the nature of the research survey is off. Gallup could reliably and sincerely conduct research that was never unbiased in the first place. Sorry if this is going OT...but I must point out some stuff.

Just some things I noted:

1. 65% response rate is frankly terrible. This is especially considering that 1200 face-to-face interviews were conducted. You should be aiming for 80% in order for the results to be valid. The nightmarish part of such findings is that you don't know why people rejected doing your survey - and unknown unknown. You are left with doing calculated guesses at best.

2. Face-to-face survey - validity is affected as the person conducting can unintentionally (or intentionally) influence the responses through things like body language, or verbal cues.

3. Demographics - 69% (nearly two-thirds) of respondents were Ukrainian speaking. I would assume they are naturally predisposed towards supporting Ukraine. I can't imagine the pro-Russian militias in the East conducting operations while juggling multiple languages.

4. There isn't an example of the actual survey form being used. This is vital as what we are seeing are results from the translation of the questions, complex questions that try to address multiple concepts.

5. The initial questions are complex, not straightforward ones. Let's look at the first one: "Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army into Ukraine under the pretext of protecting Russian speaking citizens?" Words like 'army', 'protecting', are statements that are emotionally charged, thus skewing the results. It also assumes Russia has already decided to send the army in.

Don't get me wrong, I think Gallup did their best to administer the survey. However, I have issues with the way the survey questions were conceptualised.

 

[overlander]

Uhm, just want to point out that while Gallup might be reputable, the nature of the research survey is off. Gallup could reliably and sincerely conduct research that was never unbiased in the first place. Sorry if this is going OT...but I must point out some stuff.

Just some things I noted:

1. 65% response rate is frankly terrible. This is especially considering that 1200 face-to-face interviews were conducted. You should be aiming for 80% in order for the results to be valid. The nightmarish part of such findings is that you don't know why people rejected doing your survey - and unknown unknown. You are left with doing calculated guesses at best.

2. Face-to-face survey - validity is affected as the person conducting can unintentionally (or intentionally) influence the responses through things like body language, or verbal cues.

3. Demographics - 69% (nearly two-thirds) of respondents were Ukrainian speaking. I would assume they are naturally predisposed towards supporting Ukraine. I can't imagine the pro-Russian militias in the East conducting operations while juggling multiple languages.

4. There isn't an example of the actual survey form being used. This is vital as what we are seeing are results from the translation of the questions, complex questions that try to address multiple concepts.

5. The initial questions are complex, not straightforward ones. Let's look at the first one: "Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army into Ukraine under the pretext of protecting Russian speaking citizens?" Words like 'army', 'protecting', are statements that are emotionally charged, thus skewing the results. It also assumes Russia has already decided to send the army in.

Don't get me wrong, I think Gallup did their best to administer the survey. However, I have issues with the way the survey was conceptualised.

If you see the poll I,ve just published the majority of people supports joining Russia and a not bad number of them also supports the independence, I have friends in Donestk , Lugansk and Kharkov and they don,t want to stay in Ukraine, for them an intermediate solution would be an independent republic with strong ties with Russia.

 

[bdique]

If you see the poll I,ve just published the majority of people supports joining Russia and a not bad number of them also supports the independence, I have friends in Donestk , Lugansk and Kharkov and they don,t want to stay in Ukraine, for them an intermediate solution would be an independent republic with strong ties with Russia.

This just strengthens my argument that you can't just trust a poll result that comes out of a "conflict" zone - unless the point is to study potentially skewed, or potentially biased results. We have US-backed polls and Russia-backed survey findings...with results that seem to match their expectations. This, to me, is a red flag rather than a reason to celebrate.

I'm sorry, in my line of work we deal with lots of surveys...so I can't sit still when I see a survey that smells off. Apologies for the OT...

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I'm quite curious to know more about the Russian troop movements. So far only one mechanised brigade? I'm really curious about the composition of the Russian forces that are just situated outside Donbass.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

A locally published poll made online in eastern Ukraine, the majority of people supports joining Russia

Sorry but "locally published poll" sounds extremely suspicious to me. Who is the polling company that carried it out? What is their track record? What are their credentials? How did they carry it out? Etc.

I'm not going to trust a poll run by a mystery organisation.

65% response rate is frankly terrible.

I imagine that's because a lot of pro-Ukrainians are worried about giving their views in public, lest they be attacked.

Face-to-face survey - validity is affected as the person conducting can unintentionally (or intentionally) influence the responses through things like body language, or verbal cues.

It would have been the only way to do it safely. I don't think people in eastern Ukraine all have a computer, so the only other option would have been the telephone. In a tense situation like in eastern Ukraine, I imagine a lot more people would have refused to talk to someone over the phone they didn't know, even if they said they were from Gallup. At least with a face-to-face meeting they can present some sort of ID.

69% (nearly two-thirds) of respondents were Ukrainian speaking

That is interesting. I imagine it could be due to the difficulty of travelling to certain areas of eastern Ukraine due to the poor security situation.

 

[ngatimozart]

If you see the poll I,ve just published the majority of people supports joining Russia and a not bad number of them also supports the independence, I have friends in Donestk , Lugansk and Kharkov and they don,t want to stay in Ukraine, for them an intermediate solution would be an independent republic with strong ties with Russia.

Bdique has made some very important points that question the validity of a poll administered by a well known organisation. I cannot follow the to the poll you published, so I don't know whether or not that is the full translation of all the data of that poll including the organisation who ran it and other important things like the exact wording of the questions asked, how the polling was done, how the sampling method was determined and what the margin or error was etc. Such things must be published with the poll in order for the validity of the poll to be determined by others, such as us.

 

[arp2041]

Is crimea now officially part of Russia?

 

[ngatimozart]

Is crimea now officially part of Russia?

According to Russia it is.

 

[stojo]

I imagine that's because a lot of pro-Ukrainians are worried about giving their views in public, lest they be attacked.

On the other hand, I imagine a lot of pro-Russians are worried about giving their views in public, let they be attacked.

After all, they still live in a country that is currently running an "anti-separatist" military operation, against them.

Bottom line: you cannot simply "imagine", a preferable answer of those who did not answer at all....

It would have been the only way to do it safely. I don't think people in eastern Ukraine all have a computer, so the only other option would have been the telephone.

Ukraine is not Somalia, it is a European country, and computers, mobile phones, etc ... are as ubiquitous, as they are in most other parts of Europe. 33 out of a hundred citizens have access to Internet, which is just a little less, then in Italy, for instance (around 50, i think).
Getting 1200 Ukrainian people to participate internet survey, in relevant social categories is not at all hard.