vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
Whatever keeps your boat afloat.
I see what you did there. : )
Whatever keeps your boat afloat.
I don't think they are. I think Russia is stuck. They recently tried to gain ground everywhere, and had a series of minor successes, but no major ones. The Artemovsk/Bakhmut assault in my opinion is pure inertia, with Wagner playing first fiddle. For Prigozhin this is a chance to prove that his organization is more then just shadow forces for Africa and Syria. But all in all, Russian and LNR forces have been just as persistent in trying to advance on Seversk, just less successful. Truth be told, Wagner has good infantry at the squad-platoon level. They can presumably, with recently gained assets (like IFVs, MBTs, and Arty) launch a btln-level op successfully. However they're strategically impotent. Hence their stubborn, persistent, and relatively (emphasis relatively) success full campaign around Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Note their focus on attrition for Ukrainian forces, rather then any real strategic effort to gain ground or win the war. Their advances are all opportunistic.
EDIT: Ukraine recently blew the bridge north-ward out of Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Russian troops are not advancing on that spot. Some observers have suggested that Ukraine is preparing to abandon the town. There were unconfirmed reports that Ukraine was preparing to do this prior to the Russian withdrawal from Kherson but reconsidered as those troops became available. Subsequently we had news of the Ukrainian 35th MarBde arriving in the area. We also had reports of mass casualties from newly arrived Ukrainian troops due to massive Russian artillery strikes (some reports put Ukrainian casualties at 300-500 a day, WIA and KIA combined of course). There are also reports of Russian infiltrator teams operating all over the city, and rounds impacting on even the western side of town. There is a non-zero chance that this bridge demolition is preparation for a withdrawal afterall. So Prigozhin may get his victory. There were reports of secondary defense lines around Chasoviy Yar, a similarly-sized town almost immediately west of Artemovsk/Bakhmut, so there is far less chance that this retreat will lead to Russia being able to exploit it, unlike a previous stubborn assault at Popasnaya.
Personally, I'm far more interested to see if Russia will try for Ugledar, and if they do, how will it go. Mass use of cluster munitions [tiredly and stupidly I wrote "cluster" but meant "loitering", mass use of loitering munitions in a small area and in support of a specific push rather then sporadically against targets of opportunity is of course the key distinction] paid its dividends at Pavlovka and could provide a successful model for future Russian advances assuming the availability is there, and Russia takes away the lesson.
I wonder if these are single, unrelated incidences or indications of systemic issues? In any case these things will have a negative impact on the soldiers' performance I would assume.
However even if assuming they need 3 tanks to make one
In general Estonian intelligence services are highly regarded when it comes to Russia.
www.dailykos.com
www.dailykos.com
A while ago I ran across a link stating that the Bakhmut offensive was about about control of water resources. I have been unable to find that link back, although I learned some about water while looking for it. This first link is a general overview that covers some of the damage the war has done to the already disfuncitionel water supply to eastern Ukraine. Interestingly enough the Russian air force damaged one water supply to the Donbas while bombing a Ukrainian barracks back in May. There is also a pretty good map of the canals and pipelines supplying eastern Ukraine. I an guessing that if the Bakhmut offensive is about water control it has something to do with the canal running through Chasiv Yar. Possibly there is a lift station around there.
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How Russia’s Offensive Damaged Critical Donbas Water Infrastructure - bellingcat
At least two key water facilities in the Donbas have been significantly damaged since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, satellite imagery shows.www.bellingcat.com
Another informative link which states that water is a strategic resource in Donbas.
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Ukraine: Water Infrastructure is the Strategic Prize in Donbas
Find out how disrupted water systems impact millions in Donbas and why the fight over these resources could determine the region’s fate.www.dailykos.com
Another informative link with another good map of the water supply.
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Ukraine: Water Infrastructure is the Strategic Prize in Donbas
Find out how disrupted water systems impact millions in Donbas and why the fight over these resources could determine the region’s fate.www.dailykos.com
With Russia's experience with Ukraine's blocking of the Crimean canal, they probably need to control at least these canals in order for their capture of any territory in eastern Ukraine to be of much value. Thus their persistence in the Bakhmut area. I would like to hear any thoughts you all ma have on this theory.


I think Russia shouldn't have struck at all. I think Russia should have continued to invest in internal development, while draining Ukraine's population by being an attractive destination for work migrants. Annexing Crimea makes some political and geo-strategic sense. But even that was a very costly move. Anything more and the cost is prohibitive. The cost of annexing Crimea is probably 100+ bln USD to Russia. And that's one area, with a very friendly population of 2.2 mln. Annexing Lugansk and Donetsk regions would easily cost double to triple that, even if Russia had moved in '14. Add Kharkov? It would cost even more. Kherson and Zaporozhye are non-starters.
I would disagree with you on this. -The first thing I would mention is that It is totally unacceptable to invade a neighboring countries sovereign territory and I don't care if you are Russian, American or anyone else stay out of your neighbors sovereign territory.So for the Russian they saw the needs in this war in short term and long term. There is financial lost in short term and huge benefit and other goals in long term. The attitude of the Ukrainian , is the route for the Russian to take back what they lost after fall of USSR, to regain their pride and to challenge the west who always treat them as enemy.
So for the Russian the price of this war is justifiable in long term as long they have the vital weapon, have fellow friendly countries, independent, religion and strength .
A document detailing a mid-war inventory of its ranks shows that by late May, fewer than 900 soldiers were left in two battalion tactical groups that, according to Western officials, had departed the brigade’s garrison in Russia with more than 1,400. The brigade’s commander was badly wounded. And some of those still being counted as part of the unit were listed as hospitalized, missing or “refuseniks” unwilling to fight, according to the document, part of a trove of internal Russian military files obtained by Ukraine’s security services and provided to The Post.
[....]
The losses created a two-front crisis for the 200th: It was scrambling to find reinforcements back in Murmansk, even as the broken battalions in Belgorod were being ordered to return to Ukraine.
In a sign of growing desperation, the brigade in June began forming what it called a “mixed volunteer battalion” including sailors pulled off Northern Fleet ships, logistics specialists from depots and others often coerced into action despite having little or no experience or training in ground combat, according to Western officials.
The battalion remnants in Belgorod tentatively crossed back into Ukraine in late spring and took positions hugging the Russia border.
Ukrainian military officials described the returning 200th force, though degraded, as more professional than the Russian-backed separatists they had previously faced outside Kharkiv.
The 200th soldiers were less prone to talking on open phone lines, brought far greater firepower and proved adept at targeting, said Taras Shevchenko, commander of an artillery and reconnaissance unitin Ukraine’s 127th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade.
In early June, he said, his unit encountered the 200th in the village of Velyki Prokhody, north of Kharkiv. The Ukrainians were caught off guard by a flurry of strikes, including one that tore off the third floor of a building being used as a base of operations, Shevchenko said, leaving him with a concussion.
After a series of inconclusive exchanges, Shevchenko said, he convinced Ukrainian artillery units to hold their fire for several days, hoping to create the impression they were low on ammunition as quadcopter drones were used to get a clearer fix on Russian positions.
Amid the lull, surveillance images showed 200th troops letting down their guard.
“Nothing was attacking them, so they could safely sunbathe,” Shevchenko said. “They took outdoor showers. They were running around without body armor, without helmets.”
Ukrainian forces took advantage by unleashing a 40-minute barrage involving mortars, tanks and Soviet-era artillery pieces, then launched a follow-on attack the next day after nightfall.
A Ukrainian video from the Artemovsk/Bakhmut area. The speaker is talking Ukrainian and in addition to some unkind comments about his leadership and the president, he mentions that there are 5 people left in his platoon.
Russian MiG-31BM with two R-77-1s and two R-37Ms preparing for takeoff from Bel'bek. It's interesting that the type are being used as interceptors in this conflict. One can't help but wonder about their performance.