The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Hoping this does not become a trend for UKR losing so much kit like that but realistically significant loses of the donated equipment is inevitable. I would assume now that Russians have effectively deployed mines.

This isn't new. This has been the trend. Ukraine's offensive in Kherson looked exactly like this. Ukrainian forces getting wrecked over and over again. There were videos from that time period where Ukrainian troops moving to the staging area to dismount for an attack were driving past wrecked vehicles from previous attempts. The question is what happens next. Does Russia have the battlespace management to handle attacks like this on say a dozen sections of the front line at the same time? I think this is where the failures will come out. In this case artillery and scarce attack helos were used. Are there enough of those to go around?

 

[Exonian]

My view is that Ukraine does have the military intelligence and capability the effect a breakthrough at some point.
Possibly the bigger question will be does Ukraine have the reserves and mobility to exploit a breakthrough.
and does Russia have the reserves and mobility to block a breakthrough.

cheers

 

[Feanor]

My view is that Ukraine does have the military intelligence and capability the effect a breakthrough at some point.
Possibly the bigger question will be does Ukraine have the reserves and mobility to exploit a breakthrough.
and does Russia have the reserves and mobility to block a breakthrough.

cheers

Or a second defense line already set up with troops entrenched. Infantry without good armor or vehicles isn't great in most cases but if they are dug in, and the same artillery is available to support, the second line could function without any need for mobility. Russia mobilized 300 000 troops. Russia didn't and doesn't have enough armor or transports for them.

EDIT: The number of abandoned Bradleys has increased in that same spot, and Russia appears to working on taking out the knocked out/abandoned vehicles.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

In line with above, Rybar is reporting continuing Ukrainian attacks on the Orekhov axis. Ukraine has proven that they can absorb casualties and continue fighting before. This will likely be the case here.

Рыбарь

Ореховский участок обстановка по состоянию на 13.00 9 июня 2023 года Вот уже более суток идут интенсивные бои на рубеже Работино — Вербовое. Штурмовые группы 65 омбр ВСУ с глубокой ночи пытаются прорвать оборону 291 полка ВС РФ. Украинские формирования сконцентрировали усилия конкретно на...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/06/09/20230609131455-a5614c29.jpg

 

[swerve]

Yes, it take a lot off concentrated effort to breach a dam, especially as big of Kakhovka. Circumstances evidences so far are very debatable from both sides. One thing for sure this talk of one big blown done by Russia is also very questionable. Even western media already debunk the videos that Pro Ukrainian shown. That's why I do see this as results of cumulative factors progressively weakening the Dam.

Whether this cumulative factors done by both sides or one sides done more, is also debatable.

The video was of an earlier explosion which damaged the road - & was only intended to do that, & was too small to break the dam. The fact that someone falsely claimed it was the Russians blowing up the dam does nothing to discredit the idea that the Russians did it.

I'm pretty sure that if the dam was breached by explosives deliberately planted & detonated by the Russians, they'd have done it with a big device (a shaped charge if possible) directly against the dam wall & as deep underwater as they could on the upriver side of the dam. There wouldn't have been a big flash. Probably some water going up in the air. But the bang would have been tamped by the water, & probably focused against the dam wall. It would have been less spectacular, I think.

 

[Kasatka]

The video was of an earlier explosion which damaged the road - & was only intended to do that, & was too small to break the dam. The fact that someone falsely claimed it was the Russians blowing up the dam does nothing to discredit the idea that the Russians did it.

I'm pretty sure that if the dam was breached by explosives deliberately planted & detonated by the Russians, they'd have done it with a big device (a shaped charge if possible) directly against the dam wall & as deep underwater as they could on the upriver side of the dam. There wouldn't have been a big flash. Probably some water going up in the air. But the bang would have been tamped by the water, & probably focused against the dam wall. It would have been less spectacular, I think.

Correct. The Dam was conceived by the USSR as to withstand bombardment.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1666803376015970304

Besides, UA destroying it would make the attack surface for the offensive they are trying to mount much smaller (in my opinion of course).

The Dam is also under Russian control, so planting big explosives on part of UA is very unlikely.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1666827525350105088

 

[vikingatespam]

At this time, we have several pieces of evidence that do not seem to be contested by either side:

- RU was in control of the dam in the recent past
- multiple entities (Rumania, Norway) indicate a seismic event (explosion)
- the RU parliament just passed a law preventing investigations into (among other things) hydro infrastructure destruction

None of these are conclusive proof, but would seem to imply a strong possibility of RU being the main actor here.

Supposedly the Biden administration is looking into declassing some elint on the subject, so we shall see where that goes.

 

[seaspear]

There is this claim that water levels in the dam were raised to highest possible levels before the explosion ,and that the dam itself was engineered against nuclear strike
Russians blow up Kakhovka power plant on Putin's order, water level raised before explosion – Ukrainian official (msn.com)
Ukrainian dam engineer rules out self-destruction of Kakhovka dam (euromaidanpress.com)

 

[Kasatka]

There is this claim that water levels in the dam were raised to highest possible levels before the explosion ,and that the dam itself was engineered against nuclear strike
Russians blow up Kakhovka power plant on Putin's order, water level raised before explosion – Ukrainian official (msn.com)
Ukrainian dam engineer rules out self-destruction of Kakhovka dam (euromaidanpress.com)

Interesting take, would nullify everything most have been hypothesizing... TL;DR:
- You can see that after the "briged-part" that is closest to the UA side gets blown up, the gates that let water flow on that side rarely are seen open on sat images.
- The water levels are very high this time of the year bc of ice melting.
- The engineers operating the dam on the RU side where either inoperant/unwilling to open up the floodgates on the side closest to UA... again, either they did not know what they were doing, or they were afraid of getting shot while operating them (you have to man a crane that moves on top of the dam via rails to open the gates).
- The video shows satellite images of the dam only operating one floodgate, the one closest to the RU side.
- Close to the date in which the dam collapses, there's evidence (satellite pictures) of a nearby road, that's part of the dam, collapsing close to the RU side.
- The author of the video says he consulted with some Civ.Engineers and other SMEs and it makes sense to assume that the water being released only via one floodgate (which was under immense pressure, can be seen as turbulent water) could have "digged" down on the dams floor (which is dirt and sediment), and might have weakend it's foundations.
- There's also satpic evidence that the dam was overflowing... which ain't good from an engineering standpoint.

So there you have it, it might have been operator negligence and even bad management, that caused this disaster. Obviously, in the end, the cause is the war itself. And everyone here knows which to blame for it (and I'm not going to get into that discussion).

The other thing the author of the video touches upon is the fact that he's not sure that blowing the dam is a great strategic advantage for RU. If you guys want to comment on that, I'm very interested on your take.

Finally, there is also the point he makes that they wouldn't have needed to blow up the dam itself, but could have just blown the power generator compartment, which has much easier access and is also part of the dam itself. This wasn't the case, so it begs to ask the question of why the RU would have gone through the trouble of blowing it up from where they allegedly did.

 

[ngatimozart]

Yes, it take a lot off concentrated effort to breach a dam, especially as big of Kakhovka. Circumstances evidences so far are very debatable from both sides. One thing for sure this talk of one big blown done by Russia is also very questionable. Even western media already debunk the videos that Pro Ukrainian shown. That's why I do see this as results of cumulative factors progressively weakening the Dam.

Whether this cumulative factors done by both sides or one sides done more, is also debatable.

No the circumstantial evidence isn't highly debatable; it's circumstantial yes, but the amount of evidence is increasing and that will allow for a better analysis. The real question that many seem to be missing or avoiding is who benefits the most from this incident? I have seen claims that the Russians only wanted to show the Ukrainians that they were serious about the dam and because some stuffed up it got out of control and we have a total dam collapse. I have seen Ukrainian claims that they recorded a telephone conversation between two Russian officers discussing destroying the dam, but I ignore that because it hasn't been independently corroborated. What western media debunk the Ukrainian video?

We have multiple witness accounts of hearing the explosion at the time the dam burst, and we have the seismic evidence of a large explosion within 20km of the dam at the same time. Seismometers have time stamps on them. The seismic signal for an explosion is different to that for an earthquake and that's how the seismologists know that is was an explosion and not an earthquake. Like I said in my post about how difficult it is to destroy a dam, water will find a way to gouge out when it finds a gap and once that process starts it accelerates almost logarithmically. That's why even earthen dams have concrete facings. Water moves through the soil in capillaries and through gaps between the particles within the soil. That's how a water table works. When you have a dam which has a large lake behind it, the hydraulic pressure from the water is enormous. Water pressure increases by 1 atmosphere (1.01bar / 14.7 psi / 101.3 kPa) every 33 ft (10.1m) depth in salt water and 34 ft (10.4m) in freshwater (freshwater is less dense than saltwater). According to Wikipedia, the dam height is 30 m and it has a capacity of 18,180 x 10^6 cubic metres. Thats equivalent to approx 4,850 swimming pools. The mass of the water is 18,180 x 10^6 (18,180,000,000) tonnes (1 cubic metre of fresh water has a mass of 1 tonne). So I think that doesn't support your claim that the collapse was the result "... of cumulative factors progressively weakening the Dam."

 

[Shanesworld]

No the circumstantial evidence isn't highly debatable; it's circumstantial yes, but the amount of evidence is increasing and that will allow for a better analysis. The real question that many seem to be missing or avoiding is who benefits the most from this incident? I have seen claims that the Russians only wanted to show the Ukrainians that they were serious about the dam and because some stuffed up it got out of control and we have a total dam collapse. I have seen Ukrainian claims that they recorded a telephone conversation between two Russian officers discussing destroying the dam, but I ignore that because it hasn't been independently corroborated. What western media debunk the Ukrainian video?

We have multiple witness accounts of hearing the explosion at the time the dam burst, and we have the seismic evidence of a large explosion within 20km of the dam at the same time. Seismometers have time stamps on them. The seismic signal for an explosion is different to that for an earthquake and that's how the seismologists know that is was an explosion and not an earthquake. Like I said in my post about how difficult it is to destroy a dam, water will find a way to gouge out when it finds a gap and once that process starts it accelerates almost logarithmically. That's why even earthen dams have concrete facings. Water moves through the soil in capillaries and through gaps between the particles within the soil. That's how a water table works. When you have a dam which has a large lake behind it, the hydraulic pressure from the water is enormous. Water pressure increases by 1 atmosphere (1.01bar / 14.7 psi / 101.3 kPa) every 33 ft (10.1m) depth in salt water and 34 ft (10.4m) in freshwater (freshwater is less dense than saltwater). According to Wikipedia, the dam height is 30 m and it has a capacity of 18,180 x 10^6 cubic metres. Thats equivalent to approx 4,850 swimming pools. The mass of the water is 18,180 x 10^6 (18,180,000,000) tonnes (1 cubic metre of fresh water has a mass of 1 tonne). So I think that doesn't support your claim that the collapse was the result "... of cumulative factors progressively weakening the Dam."

Is the area prone to freezing and what effect might that have?

 

[vikingatespam]

Is the area prone to freezing and what effect might that have?

From last winter, I looked and found that the Dnepr below the damn can freeze now and then, but not for a significant portion of the year. Above the dam, I dont know.

I would think the seismic even noted in multiple places implies an explosion. Maybe if the RU were storing munitions in the damn, and it failed, then set off the explosives, that would make it an accident exacerbated by RU incompetence.

 

[vikingatespam]

Its been difficult to find any information outside of RU sources. UKR OPSEC has been pretty good. I did find this on youtube:

Looks to be from the Leo2/Bradley group (at an early stage, further videos show this group at a later time). At the time of that video, the vehicles all look to be mobility losses from mines. A few notables:

- no observable PAX losses
- no UKR panic
- Bradley is suppressing nearby cover
- good use of smoke

 

[seaspear]

With the Leos there are claims that new tracks were installed and they were able to rejoin their forces

 

[Ananda]

What western media debunk the Ukrainian video?

I already post the DW sources on their debunked Ukrainian video, on Russian explosion as the ones breach the dam.

Seismometers have time stamps on them. The seismic signal for an explosion is different to that for an earthquake and that's how the seismologists know that is was an explosion and not an earthquake.

Western sources on blaming Russian plant explosion evidence now aiming on Seismic. Not that it can't be use as evidence, but seismic activities also being use as evidence on blaming Russian on Nordstream. Right now even in Western media begin circulating intelligence report stating evidence on other directions.

That's the problem with circumstances, all open to interpretation and going to be used by each opinion biases. Sorry for me (and I do see in many non west opinions) can't give credit to each sides responsibilities yet, especially only to Russian blames, by base on circumstances.

Even the progress on this War already shown different biases base on whose interpretation. Oryx and Lost Armour giving different interpretation on how so far this "offensive" Progressing. Off course Western audiences will give much credit to Oryx and vice versa. While those in fences like most of non Western audiences will see both interpretation, while noted on heavy biases on each sides.

In the end tough real progress in the ground that give real interpretation. Sooner or later it will come out.

 

[vikingatespam]

With the Leos there are claims that new tracks were installed and they were able to rejoin their forces

I have seen RU source pics (unfortunately, I cant find them) of RU soldiers standing not far from the Leo2/Bradley column. I would not assume those have been recovered. There is at least 1 killed Leo2, possibly 1-2 more depending.

 

[vikingatespam]

Oryx and Lost Armour giving different interpretation on how so far this "offensive" Progressing.

Oryx and LA used to match each other pretty well, early on. Then LA stopped tracking RU losses, and that was enough for me to take them off the list of reputable sources.

Its too early to declare how this turns out. I have my favorites, but this war has had a lot of surprises.

 

[Feanor]

I have seen RU source pics (unfortunately, I cant find them) of RU soldiers standing not far from the Leo2/Bradley column. I would not assume those have been recovered. There is at least 1 killed Leo2, possibly 1-2 more depending.

I saw this; VK.com | VK

It also appears that initially they were mostly mobility kills, but later some burned. There is speculation that Russia intentionally left them intact for some time to see if Ukraine will try to recover them, and possibly strike the recovering assets. We have seen the number of disabled Bradleys increase since the first footage.

Oryx and LA used to match each other pretty well, early on. Then LA stopped tracking RU losses, and that was enough for me to take them off the list of reputable sources.

Its too early to declare how this turns out. I have my favorites, but this war has had a lot of surprises.

Even after they stopped tracking Russian losses, they still line up pretty closely with Oryx. At the end of the day they are not a source. They are an aggregator. Footage is footage.

EDIT: Rybar put together a map of Ukrainian losses that are currently confirmed. Note he combines knocked out and destroyed vehicles because his intent seems to be less about measuring losses and more about mapping the fighting. You can see two distinct pushes and back and forth fighting around Novodonetskoe specifically that seems to confirm that Ukraine initially took the village, but not apparently fell back from it.

Colonelcassad

Проанализировав выложенные в Сеть фото и видео, команда Рыбаря составила карту потерь техники ВСУ на Запорожском направлении за последние несколько дней. Всего российским военнослужащим удалось вывести из строя 77 танков, БМП, БТР, бронеавтомобилей противника на участках под Ореховым и...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/06/10/20230610202307-6908fd56.jpg

 

[ngatimozart]

Is the area prone to freezing and what effect might that have?

Yes and the dam construction will have taken the freeze thaw and other weathering processes into account. The freeze thaw process is a weathering process that works on rocks where water has seeped in and then frozen. As it freezes it expands creating fractures within the rock. As time goes by the fractures become larger and eventually the rock will self destruct.

 

[Feanor]

Update on Zaporozhye.

After recent failed attacks, it appears Ukraine managed to take the village of Blagodatnoe, pushing back Russian forces. Kaskad btln, who was involved in countering these attacks from Neskuchnoe, north of Blagodatnoe fell back to avoid encirclement. Note the building the flag is being raised on is on the southern side of the village, so Ukraine controls it fully. According to Rybar this is due to a flank attack against Urozhaynoe. There has been a slow drip of footage of Ukrainian vehicles getting hit but nothing massive like the failed attack recently. Presumably there will be some delay on footage from the current fighting.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Рыбарь

❗️ Времьевский выступ обстановка к исходу 10 июня 2023 года В районе Времьевского выступа штурмовые группы ВСУ из 23 и 31 омбр, а также морпехи 37 обрмп возобновили атаки на российские позиции. На правом фланге пехота противника высадилась в лесополосе и смогла продвинуться до Урожайного...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/06/11/20230611004421-88b8a347.jpg

 

[ngatimozart]

President Zelenskiy has acknowledged that the Ukrainian Counter Offensive has begun.

Ukraine counter-offensive actions have begun, Zelensky says

Ukraine's president refused to say which stage the counter-offensive against Russian forces was in.

www.bbc.com

A map for context WRT the following.


The Ukrainians have apparently liberated Storozheve in the Donetsk Oblast.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1668133461746413569

Ukrainian Mi-8s attacking Russian positions.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1668131530072358912

Apparently the Ukrainians have managed to cut the main railway line near Melitopol using HIMARS. It is claimed that they have taken a bridge out. If that is the case and it's a rail bridge, then that will put a spoke in the Russian rail logistics until the bridge is repaired / replaced.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1667903325226913792

Ukraine has liberated the villages of Neskuchne and Blahodatne and are moving onto Neskuchne and Blahodatne.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1667945157163905025

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1667945155763077122

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1667945154404048896

https://twitter.com/BarracudaVol1/status/1667947592909570052

There has been another prisoner exchange.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1667948094338605064

A loitring drone attack on a Russian T-80BV in the Kharkiv Oblast.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667949974037090311

A Russian Russian 2S4 Tyulpan mortar and KamAZ-5250 truck being targeted by a Ukrainian drone.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667964129062146048

Russian soldier improv to RPG warhead. Quite ingenious.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/166796684460128666

Russian kamikaze drone attack on Ukrainian T-72H.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667970471025934336

Russian loitring drones attacking Leopard 2s.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667584514988601345

Russian loitring munitions attacks on Ukrainian T-72 and other vehicles.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667321094083158017

Ukrainian arty strikes on Grad and truck.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667969508160536576

Shoigu has made a move on Wagner and other PMCs, requiring them to negotiate ne contracts by 1/7/23 that will place them under the authority of the Russian MOD. I think that will be a very large rat for some to swallow.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1667978055946567680

Russian minelaying MRLS
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667989511605825536

Ukrainian Humvee assault on Russian positions.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667993599085277185

Ukrainian tractor advancing against Russians.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1668001657869811712