The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Capt. Ironpants]

I have seen reports that there was a water buildup in the days immediately prior to the rupture. Note the Kahovskaya dam is one of 6 dams on the Dnepr and the other 5 are under Ukrainian control. There are some claims of a Ukrainian strike against the dam, but it's a bit murky.

Thanks for all the information you have posted here. As usual, I am most grateful. I have seen claims that the Ukrainians began increasing flow from an upstream dam a few days ago, but nothing I could confirm. Even if confirmed, it would not necessarily mean they intended to further damage or destroy the Kahovskaya dam.

According to this AP article, the water level in the reservoir was so high it was spilling over the top of the dam in late May, and the reason given was the Russians leaving the sluice gates closed for too long and not adjusting flow to meet seasonal differences (satellite images in other news sources dated 28 May appear to show at least one gate open, but were taken after the AP article was published).

Damage to Russian-occupied dam submerges Ukrainian reservoir island community

LYSOHIRKA, Ukraine (AP) — The rising waters came as a relief at first, for both the tiny community living on the islands in the southern Kakhovka Reservoir and for everyone who had feared the low levels risked a meltdown at the nearby Russian-occupied nuclear power plant.

apnews.com

Some information in that article appears to be incorrect, for example sole reliance on the reservoir for cooling Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is contradicted by the IAEA: IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said the plant should have enough water to cool its reactors for “some months” from a pond located above the reservoir of the dam. "There are a number of alternative sources of water. A main one is the large cooling pond next to the site that by design is kept above the height of the reservoir,” he said in a statement.

[Full disclosure: A dear old Ukrainian friend who died last year had family still living in an area very likely to be affected by the flooding. Neither I nor longtime mutual friends in the Netherlands have been able to get in contact with them for some time now and are naturally very concerned. I suppose it would be nice to think no one blew the dam deliberately, but ... reality isn't always nice. Anyway, I admit my bias here in hoping it was not deliberate.]

 

[John Fedup]

Thanks for all the information you have posted here. As usual, I am most grateful. I have seen claims that the Ukrainians began increasing flow from an upstream dam a few days ago, but nothing I could confirm. Even if confirmed, it would not necessarily mean they intended to further damage or destroy the Kahovskaya dam.

According to this AP article, the water level in the reservoir was so high it was spilling over the top of the dam in late May, and the reason given was the Russians leaving the sluice gates closed for too long and not adjusting flow to meet seasonal differences (satellite images in other news sources dated 28 May appear to show at least one gate open, but were taken after the AP article was published).

Damage to Russian-occupied dam submerges Ukrainian reservoir island community

LYSOHIRKA, Ukraine (AP) — The rising waters came as a relief at first, for both the tiny community living on the islands in the southern Kakhovka Reservoir and for everyone who had feared the low levels risked a meltdown at the nearby Russian-occupied nuclear power plant.

apnews.com

Some information in that article appears to be incorrect, for example sole reliance on the reservoir for cooling Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is contradicted by the IAEA: IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said the plant should have enough water to cool its reactors for “some months” from a pond located above the reservoir of the dam. "There are a number of alternative sources of water. A main one is the large cooling pond next to the site that by design is kept above the height of the reservoir,” he said in a statement.

[Full disclosure: A dear old Ukrainian friend who died last year had family still living in an area very likely to be affected by the flooding. Neither I nor longtime mutual friends in the Netherlands have been able to get in contact with them for some time now and are naturally very concerned. I suppose it would be nice to think no one blew the dam deliberately, but ... reality isn't always nice. Anyway, I admit my bias here in hoping it was not deliberate.]

No worries wrt bias. Hopefully the family of your friend are ok.

 

[Feanor]

Not Ukraine. It's a significant setback. Instead of a lake with clearly defined banks, & below that a river flowing between defined banks, there'll soon be 240 km of river with a sea of mud on each side, no roads, no wharves, & below that a river flowing through marshland. It'll be much harder to attack across it. It also destroys the road across the dam, which the Ukrainians might have hoped to capture & use as a crossing.

Aso, all the affected land is part of Ukraine, & is either under Ukrainian control or targeted for recovery by Ukraine. Putin obviously doesn't give a toss about damage to Ukraine, but the Ukrainians do. They live there.

Russian sources seem to indicate that this is bad for Russia too as it apparently has washed away most of Russia's front line defense on the Dnepr. Thus when the water goes down, and they seem to think it's a matter of days not weeks, it will be much easier for Ukraine to get across. In fact it might make it harder for force a crossing and launch a major single offensive but it might make it easier for multiple smaller raiding parties to get across in the confusion.

 

[vikingatespam]

Russian sources seem to indicate that this is bad for Russia too as it apparently has washed away most of Russia's front line defense on the Dnepr. Thus when the water goes down, and they seem to think it's a matter of days not weeks, it will be much easier for Ukraine to get across. In fact it might make it harder for force a crossing and launch a major single offensive but it might make it easier for multiple smaller raiding parties to get across in the confusion.

I have been unable to find any info yet, but if the water table is already high, S of the dam, then this flooding may render the soil muddy and unusable for a while.

 

[Vanquish]

The Deputy Minister of Special Services of Poland says Poland isn’t (officially) involved:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665428376616566785

I don’t think it changes much because I do not think there is any difference between the two units and it doesn’t matter whether they are Russian, Polish, Ukrainian, or someone else. But things are on the path of escalation nonetheless, in my opinion.

I would say after day three of Putin's Special Military Operation things have pretty much escalated every day.

 

[Feanor]

Apparently we have our first confirmed destruction of a PzH-2000. Someone with sharper eyes then me can hopefully take a look and confirm if the vehicle ID is correct. It's partially obscured by foliage so its hard to see but it looks like one. This is near Artemovsk/Bakhmut and we know for a fact some are engaged in that area.

Colonelcassad

Уничтожение немецкой САУ Panzerhaubitze 2000 в бою под Артёмовском На флангах Артёмовска (Бахмута) враг активно применяет артиллерию НАТО, наши войска ведут контрбатарейную борьбу. На днях артиллеристы отдельной гвардейской мотострелковой бригады Северного флота вступили в артиллерийскую дуэль...

t.me

Other sources are claiming this is a Krab, but the commenters are disagreeing. I'll try to circle back if there is ever clarification.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian infantry walks out waist-deep in water from the flooding. Presumably if Russia had blown the dam, they would have pulled back in a better manner but it's too soon to tell.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Apparently we have our first confirmed destruction of a PzH-2000. Someone with sharper eyes then me can hopefully take a look and confirm if the vehicle ID is correct. It's partially obscured by foliage so its hard to see but it looks like one. This is near Artemovsk/Bakhmut and we know for a fact some are engaged in that area.

Colonelcassad

Уничтожение немецкой САУ Panzerhaubitze 2000 в бою под Артёмовском На флангах Артёмовска (Бахмута) враг активно применяет артиллерию НАТО, наши войска ведут контрбатарейную борьбу. На днях артиллеристы отдельной гвардейской мотострелковой бригады Северного флота вступили в артиллерийскую дуэль...

t.me

The switch to low res thermal is really sus. Possibly took a long time to call in a strike and it was already dark by then, but this pretty much ruins the BDA part. Would still say it's highly likely damaged or destroyed since they could get a drone to loiter over it for a while.
Thought it would be a Lancet, but it seems Russian troops know better than to throw Lancets on targets that are appropriately armored. Instead I can see a ground impact (dirt is thrown upward), and what is likely fire coming out of some opening on the vehicle, possibly the engine section since it's a bit below center of mass IMO.


New video on the dam just dropped. Honestly haven't watched it yet since I'm still at work, but posting anyway for your comfort.

 

[swerve]

Russian sources seem to indicate that this is bad for Russia too as it apparently has washed away most of Russia's front line defense on the Dnepr. Thus when the water goes down, and they seem to think it's a matter of days not weeks, it will be much easier for Ukraine to get across. In fact it might make it harder for force a crossing and launch a major single offensive but it might make it easier for multiple smaller raiding parties to get across in the confusion.

True, it's bad for Russia in some ways, but much worse for Ukraine.

The dam regulated the flow of the river below the dam. Following the flood, some of the flooded land is likely to remain marshy, & not dry out. Upriver, it'll take some time to dry out, & until it does there'll be a sea of mud both sides of the river, uncrossable by pretty much anything. The lake was crossable by boats.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

True, it's bad for Russia in some ways, but much worse for Ukraine.

The dam regulated the flow of the river below the dam. Following the flood, some of the flooded land is likely to remain marshy, & not dry out. Upriver, it'll take some time to dry out, & until it does there'll be a sea of mud both sides of the river, uncrossable by pretty much anything. The lake was crossable by boats.

Indeed. A lacking line of defense in Crimea is not so relevant if Ukrainian forces cannot even cross in the first place. By the time it dries out completely, Russia can restore any defense it planned there.

 

[Larry_L]

Prigozhin gave another interview commenting on the current stat of the war. He seems to have calmed down since he got out of Bakhmut. I would really like to believe what he says, but it seems to be too good to be true. He is rather coherent and makes a lot of sense. The interview is in 2 parts. I picked a quote out of each to give the general tone of his message. He wants 200,000 troops under his command, and enough amunition in order to defend Luhansk and Donetsk.

Quote:
"The main task of the MOD today is to play the beautiful story to keep their face on telegram channels and in the media,
and claim on TV that we are on the offensive."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1666202247464902656

Quote: "Because how does the highest military leadership work? Today - all the Colonels from Rostov are regularly calling me to report. Every Colonel has this little red program on his phone that is easy to erase. He calls me and says ""Its a total cluster**** here"" I ask what happened? ""Valery Vasilyevitch is throwing a tantrum again, he drank a glass of vodka and is hysterical."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1666293789894524928

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Prigozhin gave another interview commenting on the current stat of the war. He seems to have calmed down since he got out of Bakhmut. I would really like to believe what he says, but it seems to be too good to be true. He is rather coherent and makes a lot of sense. The interview is in 2 parts. I picked a quote out of each to give the general tone of his message. He wants 200,000 troops under his command, and enough amunition in order to defend Luhansk and Donetsk.

I have a lot of respect for Prigozhin. Not as a person, but as an enemy. The kind of enemy that has a face, like Rommel.
Formal Russian command blows with the wind - they disappear as fast as they appear, and not a single notable military leader among them. Prigozhin is the closest to a leader they have, and he actually speaks plainly, honestly. He has a messed up world view (to say the least) and 0 moral compass, but he speaks in a way that I think would resonate with the average Russian soldier. Doesn't even matter if he's lying - they'll believe him much sooner than they'd believe the MoD throwing lottery numbers in their evening shows.
On top of that, he's openly defying the government. Anyone else would have found a prison cell or the balcony by now.
Shame the only challenger to the throne is a warlord.

 

[Feanor]

I have a lot of respect for Prigozhin. Not as a person, but as an enemy. The kind of enemy that has a face, like Rommel.
Formal Russian command blows with the wind - they disappear as fast as they appear, and not a single notable military leader among them. Prigozhin is the closest to a leader they have, and he actually speaks plainly, honestly. He has a messed up world view (to say the least) and 0 moral compass, but he speaks in a way that I think would resonate with the average Russian soldier. Doesn't even matter if he's lying - they'll believe him much sooner than they'd believe the MoD throwing lottery numbers in their evening shows.
On top of that, he's openly defying the government. Anyone else would have found a prison cell or the balcony by now.
Shame the only challenger to the throne is a warlord.

But this isn't news. I've said for a long time that there is a good chance when Putin is eventually replaced, many in the west will long for the good old days of Putin. Considering the collection of aging Soviet graduates, and young bureaucratic non-entities, it was always likely that someone like Prigozhin would emerge. Many previously suspected General Zolotov of being another such figure, what with him being head of the Praetorian National Guard.

And you'll note he is defying the government. But not Putin. Putin's power has gotten significantly more personalized in the past decade. And Prigozhin is playing to that. It's the old Russian saying, good tsar bad boyars. Shoygu may be garbage, but who put him there? That's the question Prigozhin isn't asking and he isn't asking on purpose.

Lastly for other Russian military command, what about Lt. Gen. Mordvichev? His 8th Guards did good work. Arguably the only strategic success of the war, seizing Kherson and Zaporozhye, and taking Mariupol'.

EDIT: I wouldn't be surprised if Prigozhin does have a moral compass, just one that has more to do with a feudal baron then a modern military leader. But of course it's also possible that it's all posturing. He's starting to cross the line from a mercenary organizer to a politician, and the latter is notably less morally sound then the former.

EDIT2: Another incremental Ukrainian push both north and south of the roads out of Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Note all of the fighting is still west of town though Berkhovka appears to be threatened. While none of this directly threatens Russian control of the town, it's clear that with the withdrawal of Wagner forces, Russia has lost the initiative on this axis. And in principle this was to be expected. Wagner is in the rear until the end of the month, it remains to be seen where/how they reappear on the battlefield.

Рыбарь

❗️ Бахмутское направление обстановка по состоянию на 11.00 6 июня 2023 года Украинские формирования продолжают вгрызаться в оборонительные порядки российских войск и контратаковать на флангах Бахмута. ▪️Передовые группы противника вошли в Берховку к северу от Бахмута, за населённый пункт идут...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/06/06/20230606112127-e646e71f.jpg

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Lastly for other Russian military command, what about Lt. Gen. Mordvichev? His 8th Guards did good work. Arguably the only strategic success of the war, seizing Kherson and Zaporozhye, and taking Mariupol'.

Not familiar, and I think that's one problem for the RU MoD - they're so busy with fake numbers and news when they could have probably done a whole lot more for general morale by elevating leaders who truly performed well despite poor circumstances.

But this isn't news. I've said for a long time that there is a good chance when Putin is eventually replaced, many in the west will long for the good old days of Putin. Considering the collection of aging Soviet graduates, and young bureaucratic non-entities, it was always likely that someone like Prigozhin would emerge. Many previously suspected General Zolotov of being another such figure, what with him being head of the Praetorian National Guard.

I remember the first time I watched one of William Spaniel's videos he explained why Putin is threatened not only by moderates but also, and perhaps primarily, by hardliners. It came to me as a bit of a shock, even though I should have anticipated that.

 

[Feanor]

Not familiar, and I think that's one problem for the RU MoD - they're so busy with fake numbers and news when they could have probably done a whole lot more for general morale by elevating leaders who truly performed well despite poor circumstances.

Going off memory, so sorry if inaccurate, but I believe he was elevated. Specifically promoted in place of Gen. Lapin to Commander of Center MD.

I remember the first time I watched one of William Spaniel's videos he explained why Putin is threatened not only by moderates but also, and perhaps primarily, by hardliners. It came to me as a bit of a shock, even though I should have anticipated that.

Not familiar with Spaniel, but within the mainstream of Russian politics, Putin is a centrist. Russia has notable communist movements alive and kicking, ready to ship off Abramovich and Deripaska to Anadyr to dig for potatoes. Russia has nationalist and monarchist movements that make Dugin look good by comparison. Putin is an authoritarian centrist, generally aligned with the existing bureaucratic and economic elites.

 

[Larry_L]

How does Putin respond if he can't defeat them conventionally because his forces are tied up in Ukraine? At what point does he nuke Kharkiv?

In retrospect I might say he does something that says to NATO, (You might think I am not crazy enough to go all the way, but just watch this) After he does something horrifying like blowing up a dam.

 

[Vivendi]

Deliberate explosion from the inside of the dam was the most likely cause according to experts: Deliberate Explosion Inside Ukraine Dam Most Likely Caused Collapse, Experts Say - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Russia bombs civilians and rescue workers in the flood zone: Ukraine war: Russia bombs rescue workers and civilians in flood zone (thetimes.co.uk)

Volodomy Tretyak commenting on the dam attack:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1666015265971118082

Russian soldier admitting they mined they mined "everything there":

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1666061532080361472

The mining has been known for quite some time: Russians mined Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant (ukraine.ua)

In the days before destroying the dam, Russia raised the water level significantly:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665974996311605250

 

[swerve]

Gawd! People who say it'll make Ukrainian attacks easier because the river will be narrower! Doh!

No it won't. The LAKE will be narrower. But instead of 15-25 km of clear water that can be crossed by boat, there'll be a broad river meandering through mudflats. Yeah, really easy to attack across. And when the mud eventually dries out (depending on weather) it'll be bare soil for some time, completely free of vegetation or cover, & turning back into mud when it rains.

And below the dam, the marshy land beside the river has just got marshier & harder to cross.

 

[Vivendi]

Just days before the destruction of the Kahovka dam, Russia passed a law prohibiting investigations into such cases.

The law, published on the Russian State Legal Portal, entered into force at the end of May. It concerns the 'safety of facilities for the production of dangerous substances and water structures' in the occupied territories of Ukraine, which Russia has unilaterally annexed on paper. Thus, the law applies in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

The final article of the law states that "accidents caused by hostilities, sabotage or terrorism" at such factories or water works, such as dams, will not be investigated until the first of January 2028.

Just before the dam was destroyed, Russia passed a law prohibiting investigations into dam destruction | Web News (verkkouutiset.fi)

I hope this latest war crime by Russia will "inspire" European politicians to support Ukraine, whatever it takes, for how long it takes, until Russia has been kicked out of Ukraine. Also, those who committed war crimes must be prosecuted. Finally, Russia must now be kicked out of the UN Security Council.

I also hope that this latest war crime will wake up those who are still "on the fence" whether they are in Hungary, Austria, Switzerland*, Latin America, Africa or Asia.

Russia must be stopped.

“If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor. If an elephant has its foot on the tail of a mouse, and you say that you are neutral, the mouse will not appreciate your neutrality.”

― Desmond Tutu

*The Swiss seems to finally move in the right direction...

 

[ngatimozart]

Not Ukraine. It's a significant setback. Instead of a lake with clearly defined banks, & below that a river flowing between defined banks, there'll soon be 240 km of river with a sea of mud on each side, no roads, no wharves, & below that a river flowing through marshland. It'll be much harder to attack across it. It also destroys the road across the dam, which the Ukrainians might have hoped to capture & use as a crossing.

Aso, all the affected land is part of Ukraine, & is either under Ukrainian control or targeted for recovery by Ukraine. Putin obviously doesn't give a toss about damage to Ukraine, but the Ukrainians do. They live there.

It has put a spanner in he works for Ukraine IF they had intended Kherson to be the main jump off point of their upcoming offensive. However if they haven't, it'll inconvenience the Russians more because of their defensive works being washed away, flooded, and the loss of equipment, ammo, and men that they can ill afford. If you look at the satellite imagery, most of the flooding is on the left band (southern bank) of the river.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1666614243855048706

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1666633868244402180

On another note, the Russian MOD claimed that it had destroyed some Leopard 2 tanks, and provided imagery to substantiate said claim. Funniest look Leo 2 that I have seen. It's a combine harvester and another agricultural machine.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1666094209978470403

H I Sutton's comment on it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1666149971219939328

Video of UKR Su 24 flying with Storm Shadow AGM.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1666129663352090638

Ukrainian BRDM conversions.
https://twitter.com/BuschModelar/status/1666125688263389186

Russian T-90M having a close encounter with a min.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1666083267110653953

Another Russian Ural truck going to the great junkyard in the sky.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1666635028434919428

US supplied Bradley's in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1666590770969604096

The Russians appear to have destroyed a Ukrainian RML-4D multi-functional radar from the IRIS-T SLM air defense system.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1666537739431321604

Another Russian T-72B3 destroyed in Bakhmut.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1666495877798584333.

A very happy rescued dog.
https://twitter.com/InUAOfficial/status/1666423207413395456

Apparently combat veterans from the DPR have been left in the lurch by the DPR authorities. The haven't been paying them owed monies.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1666364060491808768

Flood water flowing threw Solonsti. That's quite a fast flow rate.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1666360133260115969

Ukraine have mad small advances around Bakhmut.
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1666633301757423617

Aussie donated M113AS4 gun shield saves gunners life.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1666448139690156037

Gepard SPAAG is doing sterling service in Ukraine. It is great for use against UAVs.
Russia had deployed 59 Iranian Shahed drones, 58 were successfully intercepted and neutralized

And my usual report.
07 Jun: MASTERFUL PLANNING! Ukrainians LEAVE RUSSIANS NO CHANCE TO WIN | War in Ukraine Explained

 

[Ananda]

Fact check: Viral video of the Kakhovka dam explosion is old – DW – 06/06/2023

Russia and Ukraine have blamed each other for the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine. A viral video that purports to show the explosion of the dam is, in fact, of a 2022 blast.

www.dw.com

Even DW one of very pro Ukraine western mainstream media, shown video that being use by pro Ukrainian to blame Russia as the parties that blowing up the dam, is misleading ones.

So far no concrete evidence on whose parties in this war really cause the dam broke out. Perhaps the cummaltive effects on bombardment and water level surge on recent days, due creates combine effects.

Pro Western/Ukrainian media talk most bombardment done by Russia, and Pro Russian media talk otherwise. Either way it is cumulative effects that seems more likely cause the dam to fall.