The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Update. Apr. 20th-22nd

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russia struck the Fregat children's camp near Kizomys, Kherson region. It's probably an attempt to target Ukrainian staging areas.

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Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Allegedly Russian TOS-2 fires in Zaporozhye.

Colonelcassad

Точная работа расчета ТОС-2 "Тосочка" по опорным пунктам противника Запорожское направление @voin_dv

t.me

Oskol Front.

Apparently a Ukrainian M109 getting hit near Kupyansk. Allegedly a Krasnopol' strike.

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Allegedly a Ukrainian T-64BV near Kremennaya getting hit. The tank appears stuck, it's possible it's abandoned.

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Ukrainian TRF1 getting hit by a Russian loitering munition near Kremennaya.

Moscow calling

Французская 155-мм самодвижущаяся гаубица на службе ВСУ - 4:19 и 4:20.

t.me

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Russian TOS-1 and Nona-S fires near Kremennaya.

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LNR forces operating a T-64BV that is I believe a mod'17 near Kremennaya. Based on that variant this must be a captured Ukrainian tank.

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Russian sniper team in the woods near Kremennaya.

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Explosions reported in Kharkov, presumably Russian strikes.

Рыбарь

Местные жители сообщают о нескольких мощных взрывах в районе Харькова. На текущий момент в городе продолжает звучать воздушная тревога. #Россия #Украина #Харьков @rybar Поддержать нас

t.me

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LDNR Front.

The Seversk axis, allegedly Russian forces destroying two Ukrainian MBTs and a fuel truck.

Colonelcassad

Работа наших войск на Северском направлении за последние сутки. Уничтожены 2 танка противника, топливозаправщик и одна машина. Как ожидается, после завершения боев за Артемовск, Северский выступ вероятно станет одним из основных участков для наших наступательных действий в силу опасной для ВСУ...

t.me

A destroyed Krab howitzer, allegedly near Zvanovka village, Seversk area..

Colonelcassad

Польский "краб" пустил пар. Уничтоженная артиллеристами ВС РФ польская САУ «Краб» (AHS Krab)

t.me

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LNR Prizrak btln fighting near Spornoe village, Seversk area. We have an improvised MLRS using a rocket-pod on an MT-LB but mounted over the turret for direct-fire.

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A Ukrainian BTR-4 burns west of Artemovsk/Bakhmut. This might be the same one we've seen before, near the bend in the road.

Colonelcassad

Уничтоженный БТР-4E на Артемовском направлении. Потери ВСУ в бронетехнике к западу от города продолжают нарастать. Как вследствие попыток контратак, так и вследствие поражения ЧВК "Вагнер" машин на дорогах через Красное и Хромово, а также в полях между ними. И это не говоря уже о последствиях...

t.me

A destroyed Ukrainian armored Humvee near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Colonelcassad

Уничтоженный бронеавтомобиль "HMMWV" американского производства в районе Артемовска.

t.me

Ukrainian M113 knocked out west of Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Reportedly the driver was killed and passengers took casualties.

Colonelcassad

Американский БМП M113 уничтоженный на одной из дорог к западу от Артемовска. Механик-водитель 200. В "салоне" также были жертвы.

t.me

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Wagner fighters at the Bakhmut-2 train station.

Moscow calling

Железнодорожный вокзал "Бахмут-2" (48.587772, 37.987513), взятый под контроль бойцами т.н. "ЧВК "Вагнер".

t.me

Colonelcassad

Фото с железнодорожной станции Артемовска, занятой штурмовиками ЧВК "Вагнер".

t.me

Colonelcassad

Подтверждающее видео с железнодорожного вокзала Артемовска, который недавно был отбит у ВСУ в ходе ожесточенных боев. Здание вокзала сильно пострадало.

t.me

UAV footage of the road in Artemovsk/Bakhmut near Khromovo. Note the destroyed vehicles we see every few meters by the roadside. There are too many and resolution is too poor to list them.

Colonelcassad

Дорого у Хромово. Вид с воздуха. На кадрах можно увидеть много разной уничтоженной техники.

t.me

A look at the results of Russian shelling west of Artemovsk/Bakhmut. This is that fateful bend in the road to Khromovo.

Moscow calling

Спутниковые снимки северного изгиба "дороги жизни" в Бахмуте.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Снимки из космоса мощнейшего укрепрайона на "дороге жизни" ВСУ Трасса О-0506 Часов Яр - Хромово долго была главным путём снабжения бахмутской группировки ВСУ, путём подвоза подкреплений, ротаций и эвакуации раненых. Этот участок превращён врагом в мощнейшие укрепрайоны, изрытые окопами с...

t.me

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Footage of the western outskirts of Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Colonelcassad

Западная часть Артемовска. Вид с воздуха. Снято дроном ВСУ.

t.me

Wagner forces showing off a captured Carl Gustaff RPG, Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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Ukrainian MaxxPros near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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DNR forces assaulting Ukrainian strongpoints near Nevel'skoe. But with the benefit of hindsight we know Russian forces haven't been able to take Nevel'skoe itself.

Colonelcassad

Бойцы 110 бригады взяли штурмом позиции противника под Невельским Бойцы отряда "Шторм" и танкисты 110 отдельной мотострелковой бригады 1 Донецкого армейского корпуса(ранее 100 бригада НМ ДНР) взяли штурмом позиции 59 отдельной мотопехотной бригады ВСУ вблизи населённого пункта Невельское...

t.me

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DNR D-20s firing, Mar'inka.

Colonelcassad

Расчеты 152-мм гаубиц Д-20 5-й бригады 1-го АК 8-й Армии ЮВО ВС России ежедневно ведут огонь по пехоте и технике противника, которая пытается перемещаться в районе Марьинка. С целью обеспечения безопасности расчетов, орудия на позиции тщательно маскируются, чтобы избежать обнаружения с воздуха.

t.me

Russian Khrizantema-S SP ATGM carrier taking out a Ukrainian camera OP in Krasnogorovka near Mar'inka. What's significant is that I don't believe we've seen Khrizantemas outside Kherson area. Perhaps a new unit is in the area.

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Russian Ka-52 ATGM strikes near Ugledar. Between the Mi-24, Mi-35M, Mi-28N, and Ka-52, the latter is the only type we still see using ATGMs, almost certainly due to the superior range of the Vikhr ATGM. A logical step would be to integrate the type on other helos, but here we are a year later.

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Battle damage from a Russian gliding bomb strike in Ugledar.

Colonelcassad

Результат авиаудара с применением планирующей бомбы по расположению ВСУшников в Угледаре. Выживших вояк и их автотранспорт можете видеть рядом.

t.me

DNR Kaskad btln shows off the pre-work to get a quadcopter ready for a combat mission.

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Shelling of Donetsk continues.

Colonelcassad

Кировский район Донецка, Бирюзова, последствия прилёта ракеты РСЗО «Град» в 91 школу.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Очередной обыденный обстрел Куйбышевского района Донецка. Снаряд попал в дом. Хозяин, которого вы видите на фото, в это время был в Миграционной службе, получал паспорт России. Его псу повезло меньше. Это происходит с 2014 года.

t.me

Russia.

A Russian Su-34 accidentally dropped a guided FAB-500 gliding bomb on Belgorod. The munition did not explode. With hindsight there seems to be a flaw with the Russian gliding bomb design since quite a few were accidentally dropped since this incident.

Moscow calling

МО РФ: вечером 20 апреля при выполнении полета самолета Су-34 ВКС над городом Белгород произошел нештатный сход авиационного боеприпаса. В результате есть повреждения жилых строений, жертв нет. Проводится расследование. К слову, в районе ул. Шаландина найдена вторая воронка, и минус один...

t.me

Moscow calling

Разрушения многоквартирного дома поблизости от места падения авиабомбы в Белгороде. По предварительным данным, есть двое пострадавших: женщина с черепно-мозговой травмой в состоянии средней степени тяжести доставлена в городскую больницу №2. Вторая женщина с ссадинами - от госпитализации...

t.me

Moscow calling

Пожалуй, наиболее детальное видео инцидента в Белгороде: - рёв пролетающего реактивного самолёта; - звук взрыва закрывшейся в землю авиабомбы. Осталось только найти ответ на вопрос - каким образом бомба могла упасть в центре большого города? Неужели кто-то летал над городом с бомбами на...

t.me

Moscow calling

Белгород, неслабых размеров воронка на перекрёстке улиц Ватутина и Губкина. Кто её оставил, и есть ли жертвы - подробности уточняются.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Видео с места падения в Белгороде. Прилет был без детонации. Что именно прилетело пока не ясно.

t.me

According to Gladkov, governor of Belgorod region, 30 civilians have been killed and 123 wounded as a result of strikes against Belgorod region.

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[Feanor]

Misc.

Allegedly a Ukrainian infantry element spotted by Russian forces through thermals and getting hit. We are seeing more of this kind of footage suggesting Russia has deployed more thermals in recent months.

Colonelcassad

Наш спецназ обнаружили и уничтожил ДРГ противника Во время рейда в ночное время суток была обнаружена диверсионно-разведывательная группа противника. Разведка подразделения специального назначения оперативно скорректировала огонь артиллерийского орудия и группа противника была уничтожена.

t.me

Russian gliding bomb strike on a hangar where allegedly a Ukrainian Osa SAM was hiding. Note we can see what looks like a destroyed vehicle in the rubble at the end but I can't make out the type.

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A bunch of infantry, allegedly Ukrainian, getting hit by an ATGM. Based on the explosion this might be an HE-FRAG warhead.

Colonelcassad

Прилет ПТУРа по скоплению украинской пехоты, которая посреди поля решила собраться в кучку и была наказана.

t.me

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Russian loitering munition striking an AN/TPQ-37 counter-battery radar and an SP howitzer. The unit striking is the 76th VDV, likely the Oskol front, but it's hard to be sure.

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Russian airstrikes against an alleged Ukrainian strong point and staging area. Note these strikes have become more common and their geography now covers virtually the entire front line, and even sections of northern Ukraine where no ground forces are engaged. It's clear that even without being concentrated to a purpose, these strikes will have some cumulative effect through attrition and on logistics. It's unclear how severe the effect is.

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A Ukrainian loitering munition that resembles the Israeli Hero-400 was used against Russian forces. Other candidates include the Phoenix Ghost, and SB-600.

Moscow calling

Израильский БПЛА-снаряд Hero-400EC, применённый ВСУ против ВС РФ. P. S. Возможно, не 400.

t.me

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Russian forces have apparently recovered an intact Warmate loitering munition that failed to detonate.

Colonelcassad

Вот такая вот штука попала в руки нашим. Барражирующий беспилотный авиационный комплекс Warmate, предназначен для поражения техники и объектов противника. Классифицируется как «самолет-снаряд», или «барражирующий боеприпас». Разработан польским предприятием WB Electronics. Огромная удача, что...

t.me

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A damaged Ukrainian TRF1 getting towed away. Unclear if the same as above.

Colonelcassad

Поврежденная французская 155-мм гаубица TRF1 ВСУ на трале. @milinfolive

t.me

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A Ukrainian Maxxpro towing another knocked out Maxxpro, allegedly after hitting a landmine.

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Colonelcassad

Американский бронеавтомобиль США Maxx Pro "приуныл" на Донбассе

t.me

Ukrainian forces using an up-armored bulldozer as an improvised mineclearing vehicle.

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Курдистан-стайл в степях Украины

Из описания: Украинская машина разминирования на базе экскаватора «Hitachi» с бронированной кабиной. из телеграмма "Военный осведомитель"

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Moscow calling

Самодельная машина разминирования на базе экскаватора Hitachi. Проблема минирования - одна из многих, которую нужно будет решать после войны...

t.me

The unique Varta-Redut in Ukrainian service. It's an armored car on the ZiL-131 chassis.

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Ukrainian 3D36 radar with fishnets used to protect it from Russian loitering munition strikes.

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A Ukrainian M119 howitzer with metal fence sections on the sides to protect from loitering munition strikes.

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Ukrainian mobilization efforts continue.

Colonelcassad

Набор в велосипедные войска. "Мобилизация на Украине проходит нормально" (с) Данилов

t.me

Colonelcassad

Он смог. Будущий водитель леопарда в неравной борьбе вышел победителем и сумел умчаться.

t.me

A rare Ukrainian vehicle, MT-LBu with the Parus turret.

У - Универсальный

Любопытный образец гусеничного транспортера ВСУ МТ-ЛБу с боевым модулем Парус, доработанного на Украине Телеграм-канал Милитарист

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Ukrainian Bradleys being taken somewhere.

Colonelcassad

БМП "Брэдли" перевозятся на трейлерах где-то на Украине. Уже в покрашенном виде.

t.me

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A column of Leo-2A4s and M113s moving on a dirt road, presumably training.

Colonelcassad

Немецкие танки "Леопард 2А4" вместе с американскими БМП M113 в условиях распутицы на Украине.

t.me

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There are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian Leo-2s are already on the front line.

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Ukrainian PzH-2000 position with anti-loitering munition netting set up. The PzH-2000 retains the rare distinction of being the only howitzer we have not seen getting hit at all this war.

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There is evidence that due to exhaustion of Soviet 9M33M3 missile stocks, Ukraine is using older 9M33M2 Osa missiles sourced from Jordan. Their effectiveness is obviously lower, for what is already not the most modern SAM.

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Война Z Украина

Исследователи заметили в Украине оранжевые ракеты для ЗРК "Оса", стоявшие на вооружении у Иордании. Сама Иордания сняла их с вооружения в 2017 году из-за их возраста, большая часть иорданских комплексов и ракет к ним была после этого продана Армении. По некоторым данным, вероятность перехвата...

t.me

A Russian MT-LB uparmored with spare tracks. The MT-LB is essentially an armored artillery tractor with an enclosed passenger compartment. It has excellent mobility even by modern standards and a fairly powerful engine. So it can actually take quite a bit more weight then it normally carries. In principle it is quite possible to convert it into a decent APC by adding extra armor or even a passable IFV though in that capacity it tends to be inadequate.

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Russian T-80BVs somewhere in Ukraine, uparmored with metal sheets. Note from a weight to protection standpoint, this is likely very inefficient.

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Another good shot of the T-90M mod'23.

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NATO/EU.

Denmark and the Netherlands will supply Ukraine with 14 Leo-2s. Reportedly the tanks will be purchased from a third party and refurbished.

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A Dutch M97 MPLC mine breaching kit in Ukrainian service. I believe this is a first sighting.

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[swerve]

NATO/EU.

Denmark and the Netherlands will supply Ukraine with 14 Leo-2s. Reportedly the tanks will be purchased from a third party and refurbished.

Interesting. That suggests old Le0 2A4. Who has spare ones? Spain certainly has.

 

[ngatimozart]

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have asked for silence about upcoming OPs.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665342742573076481

The Russian MOD claimed to have repelled the much anticipated Ukrainian counter offensive.

Ukraine war: Russia says it thwarted major Ukrainian offensive

Kyiv hasn’t responded to the claim, the latest sign an expected Ukrainian counter-offensive may have begun.

www.bbc.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665486315607977985

Source.

Russian blogger and other reports on UKR breakthroughs on the frontline.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665391110665936898

PMC Wagner detained and beat up the CO of Russian Army 72nd Brigade, Roman Venevitin. Accused him of orchestrating the mining and artistically strikes of the road that Wagner were using to withdraw from Bakhmut. This maybe a mistake and cause the army to act against Wagner.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665472757696528386

Russian milblogger post on the current state of the Russian Army. If he is right then the Russian army is indeed in a poor state.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664922561400938496

Visual confirmation of UKR SU-24 fitted with Storm Shadow missiles.


There is more to come and I will do a second post later.

 

[Feanor]

The Russian MOD claimed to have repelled the much anticipated Ukrainian counter offensive.

Ukraine war: Russia says it thwarted major Ukrainian offensive

Kyiv hasn’t responded to the claim, the latest sign an expected Ukrainian counter-offensive may have begun.

www.bbc.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665486315607977985

View attachment 50557
Source.

Russian blogger and other reports on UKR breakthroughs on the frontline.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665391110665936898

Reportedly Ukraine launched a broad series of probing attacks, as well as some cross-border raids and fires around Belgorod region. If you look at the geography, you'll notice this action is distinctly not happening on the Melitopol' axis. This is probably still an attempt to pull Russian reserves to other areas, ahead of the real attack. So far these attacks have been repulsed with casualties including the loss of what look like two AMX-10RCs, possible abandoned after being knocked out or stuck. There are reports of a pair of Leo-2s used in one of the attacks that pushed Russian forces out of the village of Novodonetskoe in the eastern part of Zaporozhye. Note the successful attack was precedent by several unsuccessful ones (links 3-4 allegedly show the results of those).

Рыбарь

А вот и первые объективные свидетельства потерь ВСУ танков западного производства, поставленных на Украину зимой и весной этого года. Канал Battle Sailor опубликовал фотографии трех единиц техники, брошеных экипажами после одной из неудачных атак на Южно-Донецком направлении. Хотя внешне они...

t.me

Colonelcassad

А вот и первое видео с брошенными/поврежденными французскими колесными танками AMX-10R. Дебют совсем не задался. Картинку с сбросом гранаты в открытый люк было бы интересно увидеть.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Еще кадры отражения вчерашних атак противника в районе Времьевского выступа.

t.me

Colonelcassad

4 поврежденных американских МРАПа MaxxPro после провалившейся атаки ВСУ 4 июня.

t.me

Рыбарь

❗️ Времьевский выступ обстановка по состоянию на 18.00 5 июня 2023 года На востоке от Времьевского выступа бронегруппа ВСУ сумела выдавить российские войска из села Новодонецкое. В ходе атаки украинские формирования впервые задействовали немецкие танки Leopard — сейчас в Новодонецком находится...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/06/05/20230605180205-2a5eabdb.jpg

Рыбарь

❗️ Массовая разведка боем на Запорожском направлении обстановка к исходу 4 июня 2023 года Одновременно с активизацией украинских формирований на Харьковском и Южно-Донецком направлениях сегодня во второй половине дня ВСУ начали атаку со стороны Малой Токмачки у Орехова. ▪️Штурмовой отряд...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/06/04/20230604204704-9d2511da.jpg

Interesting. That suggests old Le0 2A4. Who has spare ones? Spain certainly has.

I remember that there were reports that the transfer of Spanish vehicles to Ukraine was taking extra time because of their poor condition. Spain's aid may have been so limited because they couldn't easily afford to refurbish the vehicles themselves.

EDIT: Possibly a 3rd abandoned AMX-10RC.

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[KipPotapych]

Oh, look, more “Russian partisans”:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665221069395877888

And an article at the WP from yesterday suggests that Kiev may have no control of how the supplied weapons are being used, which is probably highlighted by recent statements from the State Department and other entities from other countries that they are not encouraging or supporting the attacks on Russian territory (to the point that the weapons are supplied on the condition that they are not to be used in Russia), as well as public statements from Ukrainian officials that they are “prohibited” to do so with the western supplied weapons.

[…]U.S. and Western officials have insisted that Ukraine carefully track the billions of dollars’ worth of weapons that have flowed into the country. Kyiv’s backers have also largely barred Ukrainian forces from using Western weapons and equipment for attacks on Russian soil. Yet the recent raid into Russia underscores how materiel can change hands in unpredictable ways, creating oversight challenges that few in Washington and Kyiv appear willing to acknowledge.[…]

The WP article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/03/nato-weapons-russia/

So “partisans” is a quite a bit of a stretch.

Quoting myself for a follow up from the Belgian side on the reports of their supplied weapons used in raids in Russia: Belgium investigating whether arms destined to defend Ukraine ended up in Russia fighting

 

[MARKMILES77]

Ex RAAF F-18s are now a real possibility for Ukraine:

Retired RAAF fighter jets could be sent to Ukraine

Australia, the US and Ukraine are discussing sending 41 Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18 Hornets to Kyiv, rather than sending them to the scrapheap as planned.

www.afr.com

 

[Morgo]

Oh, look, more “Russian partisans”:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665221069395877888

Quoting myself for a follow up from the Belgian side on the reports of their supplied weapons used in raids in Russia: Belgium investigating whether arms destined to defend Ukraine ended up in Russia fighting

This is very worrying if true. I hope it's not. Citizens of a NATO nation fighting on Russian soil? Very risky business.

 

[ngatimozart]

Oh, look, more “Russian partisans” :

I suggest that you go look up the definition for partisan instead of attempting to politicise it. The Oxford dictionary would be a good place to start.

 

[ngatimozart]

This is very worrying if true. I hope it's not. Citizens of a NATO nation fighting on Russian soil? Very risky business.

Why should it? They are there in a private capacity, not an official one. If they aren't part of the Ukrainian Foreign Legion, nor members of any other Ukrainian Army unit, they can be treated as mercenaries.

 

[ngatimozart]

New Ukrainian camouflage. How to hide a Ukrainian tractor.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665867757550747649

The Russian MOD have made another claim of destroying significant Ukrainian forces.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665853038882349057

Which has been eloquently disputed by Prigozhin, as only he can.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665855097392209920

A Soviet era AZP-S60 57mm autocannon in use in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665850710930366474

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665792881603276802

Russian disinformation has increased.
Russia launch disinformation operations as Ukraine goes on the attack

My usual Ukrainian Update.
04 Jun: Finally! Ukrainians TOOK BY STORM THE SOUTHERN FRONT | War in Ukraine Explained

The Ukrainians could be using a drone to imitate aircraft.
Is Ukraine using an aircraft-imitating missile to confuse Russian defences?

Item by UK Forces News on the UAV war in Ukraine.
Ukraine and Russia in escalating race for drone warfare domination

And the final word goes to:
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1665779988329639938

 

[Morgo]

Why should it? They are there in a private capacity, not an official one. If they aren't part of the Ukrainian Foreign Legion, nor members of any other Ukrainian Army unit, they can be treated as mercenaries.

I understand their legal status. I am concerned about the risk of escalation despite it.

The Russians, not unreasonably, consider a threat to their territorial integrity as grounds for use of WMDs. Now the question is - what territory? And who are you using it on? Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea are definitely not part of the Russian Federation (in my view), but Belgorod certainly is.

Notwithstanding the legalities, there is a point where Russia says enough is enough and deems either Ukraine or NATO as either complicit or directly responsible in arming or giving safe passage / haven to the partisans. I don't think it's likely (but what do I know), but say that the partisans are able to take Belgorod in its entirety? Or reach Kursk?

How does Putin respond if he can't defeat them conventionally because his forces are tied up in Ukraine? At what point does he nuke Kharkiv?

You may think I'm being alarmist but these incursions into Russia proper make me very nervous indeed.

 

[Feanor]

I suggest that you go look up the definition for partisan instead of attempting to politicise it. The Oxford dictionary would be a good place to start.

Ok but "Russian" partisans? From the Warsaw Oblast'? If the Russian military wasn't bogged down in an unwinnable war in Ukraine I'd be tempted to make jokes about Poles being my favorite kind of Russian. But I think you see the point.

 

[ngatimozart]

I understand their legal status. I am concerned about the risk of escalation despite it.

The Russians, not unreasonably, consider a threat to their territorial integrity as grounds for use of WMDs. Now the question is - what territory? And who are you using it on? Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea are definitely not part of the Russian Federation (in my view), but Belgorod certainly is.

Notwithstanding the legalities, there is a point where Russia says enough is enough and deems either Ukraine or NATO as either complicit or directly responsible in arming or giving safe passage / haven to the partisans. I don't think it's likely (but what do I know), but say that the partisans are able to take Belgorod in its entirety? Or reach Kursk?

How does Putin respond if he can't defeat them conventionally because his forces are tied up in Ukraine? At what point does he nuke Kharkiv?

You may think I'm being alarmist but these incursions into Russia proper make me very nervous indeed.

Putin has made nuclear threats before and hasn't escalated to that, despite his so called red lines being breached. Importantly, Xi Jinping has told him that nukes are not to be used in his war against Ukraine. He needs Xi and the PRC, more than they need him and he knows that. If he used nukes, Xi would be left in an uncompromising situation where he would have to dump Putin, because Putin would be an international pariah and despite all of the bombastic CCP claims, Xi cannot afford any harsh sanctions against him. However, chemical and / or biological weapons are another story and Putin has used chemical weapons in Syria without any devastating retaliation, so he knows that he could get away with that.

Xi also has another concern. He doesn't want the Russian Federation to collapse, because that would cause all sorts of problems for the PRC. He would rather Putin lose on the battlefield, go home, lick his wounds and prepare for the next attempt to destroy Ukraine.

Ok but "Russian" partisans? From the Warsaw Oblast '? If the Russian military wasn't bogged down in an unwinnable war in Ukraine I'd be tempted to make jokes about Poles being my favorite kind of Russian. But I think you see the point.

Hmm Polish jokes Yes it's semantics but semantics are important.

On another note, Prigozhin must be close to declaring all out war on the Russian Army and MOD. Either that or Putin will have him step through a window. The infighting amongst the Kremlin leadership is a dream for Ukrainian defense planners, because it weakens the Russians on the battlefront. Putin apparently puts up with such infighting because with them busy fighting each other, it's harder for them to gang up on him. However Putin doesn't have the political instincts, machelvainian, or nose for intrigue that comrade Stalin had. Stalin would have used the NKVD to sort out such issues for two reasons :

i) He was paranoid about plots against him.​

ii) He didn't allow anyone or anything to get in the way of USSR victory during a war.​

 

[Feanor]

It appears the Kahovskaya dam was blown. 11 of the 28 sections are blown. Water is rising in multiple areas downstream. It remains unclear who blew the dam. On the one hand this threatens Ukrainian positions on the islands. On the other hand the left shore of the Dnepr is lower which threatens Russian defensive lines on the Russian shore. We already have reports of Ukrainian forces pulling back from some of the islands.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Moscow calling

Херсон, затопление домов на острове Карантинном. Диалоги местных жителей на первом видео примечательны.

t.me

Moscow calling

Вид на разрушения Каховской ГЭС с левого берега Днепра. По словам очевидца, прилётов не было.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Последствия взрыва. Тактическая ситуация на Херсонском направлении несколько изменится. PS. Черно-белое видео со взрывом старое.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Последствия взрыва на Каховской ГЭС.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Общий вид на Каховскую ГЭС после прорыва плотины. На оккупированных ВСУ территориях Херсонской области объявили о начале эвакуации.

t.me

Moscow calling

Затопление позиций ВСУ на островах под Херсоном и, предположительно, эвакуация украинских сил.

t.me

Moscow calling

Еще разрушение Каховской ГЭС. То, что было построено ударными темпами в 1950-х годах - разрушено нахуй долбоебами, неспособными ничего создать. Ахуенную страну они оставят своим потомкам...

t.me

 

[ngatimozart]

It appears the Kahovskaya dam was blown. 11 of the 28 sections are blown. Water is rising in multiple areas downstream. It remains unclear who blew the dam. On the one hand this threatens Ukrainian positions on the islands. On the other hand the left shore of the Dnepr is lower which threatens Russian defensive lines on the Russian shore. We already have reports of Ukrainian forces pulling back from some of the islands.

I saw a video on Telegram yesterday of water pouring through a building and now wonder if that was the cause.

 

[Feanor]

Hmm Polish jokes Yes it's semantics but semantics are important.

You're ducking the question. Polish fighters as "Russian" partisans? They can be partisans, sure, but wouldn't they therefore be Polish partisans?

On another note, Prigozhin must be close to declaring all out war on the Russian Army and MOD. Either that or Putin will have him step through a window.

What if its neither? Prigozhin is digging under the MoD who has done a piss poor job in this war. But war? That's a different story.

The infighting amongst the Kremlin leadership is a dream for Ukrainian defense planners, because it weakens the Russians on the battlefront.

Again, are you sure? Wagner is withdrawn from the front line, for now. This is almost certainly due to their exhaustion from the fight for Artemovsk/Bakhmut. So, they would have to be pulled back for rest, resupply,and replenishment either way. Any evidence that the Wagner-MOD split is actually causing any significant issues on the front line? The whole thing looks a bit odd. Like a game being played, but we can't see the players or all the moves.

Putin apparently puts up with such infighting because with them busy fighting each other, it's harder for them to gang up on him. However Putin doesn't have the political instincts, machelvainian, or nose for intrigue that comrade Stalin had. Stalin would have used the NKVD to sort out such issues for two reasons :

i) He was paranoid about plots against him.​

ii) He didn't allow anyone or anything to get in the way of USSR victory during a war.​

Remember, Stalin was in charge of a very different country and in a very different time in history.

 

[ngatimozart]

You're fucking the question. Polish fighters as "Russian" partisans? They can be partisans, sure, but wouldn't they therefore be Polish partisans?

I might be ducking the question, but I would say that Polish partisans fight inside Russia doesn't make them partisans.

What if its neither? Prigozhin is digging under the MoD who has done a piss poor job in this war. But war? That's a different story.

That's quite possible and I don't discount it.

Again, are you sure? Wagner is withdrawn from the front line, for now. This is almost certainly due to their exhaustion from the fight for Artemovsk / Bakhmut. So, they would have to be pulled back for rest, resupply, and replenishment either way. Any evidence that the Wagner-MOD split is actually causing any significant issues on the front line? The whole thing looks a bit odd. Like a game being played, but we can't see the players or all the moves.

I have seen reports of Wagner not communicating lessons learnt on the battlefield to others and it's also believed to be occurring within the Russian army as well. Everything appears siloed and very well siloed, which could explain why the Russians keep repeating costly mistakes on the battlefield. It's like each commander has his own fiefdom. This could be why the Russians have been very poor at an all arms attack.

Remember, Stalin was in charge of a very different country and in a very different time in history.

Yes he was, but his leadership style hasn't necessarily been confined to the dustbin of history.[/quote]

 

[Big_Zucchini]

If the breaching of the dam is indeed a Russian action timed for a Ukrainian offensive, then it is a certificate of Russia's distrust in its ability to hold Crimea in the short and long term.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665905312388337664

 

[Morgo]

If the breaching of the dam is indeed a Russian action timed for a Ukrainian offensive, then it is a certificate of Russian's lack of confidence in its ability to hold Crimea in the short and long term.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1665905312388337664

Don't forget a war crime as well. Going to be a busy time in Den Haag when this is all done.

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/c...en to attack,severe losses among the civilian


Article 56 of the 1977 Additional Protocol I provides:
1. Works and installations containing dangerous forces, namely dams, dykes and nuclear electrical generating stations, shall not be made the object of attack, even where these objects are military objectives, if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population. Other military objectives located at or in the vicinity of these works or installations shall not be made the object of attack if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces from the works or installations and consequent severe losses among the civilian population.