Royal Canadian Navy Discussions and updates

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Unlike shipbuilding which Canada has shown itself to be moderately successful in as of late, setting ourselves up for the Saab fighter "production" proposal domestically is a laughable waste of time. More relevant to the discussion here however, the adoption of a two tiered fleet has some potentially disastrous consequences for cross service interoperability between the RCAF and RCN. The AEGIS equipped River class destroyers are out of the box able to integrate themselves seamlessly with the MADL datalinks of the F-35A, permitting them to discretely share substantial amounts of data quickly to the point that you can create high quality targeting tracks able to gain weapons locks on targets. Gripen E/F only has NATO standard LINK datalinks which while adequate, offer nowhere near the fidelity, bandwidth, stealth and interoperability that the MADL offers from the F-35.

Yet another example of poor procurement decisions being weighed due to emotional, politically charged situations.
I dont think people reslise just how good SAAB, and the Swedes in general, are at integrating other nations systems into different capabilities.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
See Erieye. Tested on one aircraft, in service on three other types before a major upgrade to Erieye ER, now in service on one of the three, plus another type. This seems to have been achieved with no fuss.

That's an example of doing it the other way, integrating their systems onto multiple (mostly foreign) platforms.
 
I dont think people reslise just how good SAAB, and the Swedes in general, are at integrating other nations systems into different capabilities.
I'm not saying that Saab cannot integrate systems, I am saying that we are potentially looking at far more risky options that will require significant cooperative, effort and work to make baseline workable compared to alternatives which already work with each other as delivered. Saab are also prolific BS artists who I trust about as far as I can throw them even as far as the MIC goes, their marketing team are living in an entirely different reality from basically everybody else not in an overly nationalistic place like India or Pakistan.
 
The interim SH plan made more sense than used Hornets from Australia. The 18 planned would likely have become at least 40 or more given the current political environment. F-35s ordered from 2030 onwards, say 30-40 would get us to 2050-60 at which time 6th Gen could be an option. Gen 4+ jets like the F-15EX or SH combined with the F-35 is a decent CYA approach given LM’s performance with the F-35 program. The current conflict could show how well the F-35 holds up if it continues for another 1-2 months.
Boeing wanted something like $5.5B for those 18 interim Super Hornets, which is total highway robbery as far as aircraft pricing goes. It made little sense to expand this interim fleet when prices were that poor, the Canadian Govt was involved in a slapfight between Bombardier and Boeing and the basically required conformal fuel tanks for RCAF service were in a troubled space. It makes very little sense for me to have the RCAF operate a multi-fleet split of Hornets, Super Hornets, F-35 (?) and 6th gens given the continual concerns by the RCAF about personnel, costs and infrastructure issues just talking about two fleets.

LM's performance with the F-35 program is more than adequate enough that multiple other nations in Europe have shifted entirely/will be shifting to a single homogenous F-35 fleet (Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland), so I personally do not support any kind of mixed fleet anytime soon. The F-35 has proven itself to be more than workable in high intensity conflicts shown by Israel in the past, I am not especially worried about its operations, neither is the RCAF or have they been in the past by operating a single fleet of legacy Hornets.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Boeing wanted something like $5.5B for those 18 interim Super Hornets, which is total highway robbery as far as aircraft pricing goes. It made little sense to expand this interim fleet when prices were that poor, the Canadian Govt was involved in a slapfight between Bombardier and Boeing and the basically required conformal fuel tanks for RCAF service were in a troubled space. It makes very little sense for me to have the RCAF operate a multi-fleet split of Hornets, Super Hornets, F-35 (?) and 6th gens given the continual concerns by the RCAF about personnel, costs and infrastructure issues just talking about two fleets.

LM's performance with the F-35 program is more than adequate enough that multiple other nations in Europe have shifted entirely/will be shifting to a single homogenous F-35 fleet (Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland), so I personally do not support any kind of mixed fleet anytime soon. The F-35 has proven itself to be more than workable in high intensity conflicts shown by Israel in the past, I am not especially worried about its operations, neither is the RCAF or have they been in the past by operating a single fleet of legacy Hornets.
The current operation in Iran will show if F-35s can sustain operations properly assuming this aerial conflict goes on for 2 months or more. I expect at the very least the production rate for new jets will slow.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Has the availability rate improved. I've seen figures as low as 60% in peacetime.

and to keep this naval, here is a short clip from RCN.
That is number I have heard, sometimes lower, but I haven’t heard any recent number and obviously the US and other allies won’t disclose in public realistic number, even less so now. As you mentioned, the 60% is a peace time number. Israel likely has some realistic war numbers.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
LM's performance with the F-35 program is more than adequate enough that multiple other nations in Europe have shifted entirely/will be shifting to a single homogenous F-35 fleet (Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland), ...
All of them much smaller than Canada, in every way: area, population, economy . . . Countries with larger populations & economies are tending to have more than one type of combat aircraft.

That doesn't mean that Canada has to follow suit, of course, but I don't think they're necessarily good models for Canada.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I'm not saying that Saab cannot integrate systems, I am saying that we are potentially looking at far more risky options that will require significant cooperative, effort and work to make baseline workable compared to alternatives which already work with each other as delivered. Saab are also prolific BS artists who I trust about as far as I can throw them even as far as the MIC goes, their marketing team are living in an entirely different reality from basically everybody else not in an overly nationalistic place like India or Pakistan.
A little bit of hate for SAAB there...

It doesnt change the fact that they are very good at what they do and they will accommodate the requirements of the customer far better than many other primes i have encountered.
 
All of them much smaller than Canada, in every way: area, population, economy . . . Countries with larger populations & economies are tending to have more than one type of combat aircraft.

That doesn't mean that Canada has to follow suit, of course, but I don't think they're necessarily good models for Canada.
I mentioned it as an example of other key NATO allies taking up single aircraft fleets specifically built around the F-35. Many of the nations in Europe operating multiple types of aircraft continue forward with mixed fleets because they are part of a wider multi-national aerospace industrial effort like Typhoon or have their own domestic design to support like the Rafale or Gripen. This does not apply to Canada as the only aerospace program we are a part of is the F-35 program, and we have no ongoing domestic designs to adequately support. Saab's pie in the sky pitch to recreate their maligned Brazilian endeavor in Canada should be looked at with significant scrutiny as well.

Just like submarines for the Navy, there is significant benefits for sticking with a homogenous fighter fleet and we've seen the RCAF do this in the past with the CF-18.

A little bit of hate for SAAB there...

It doesnt change the fact that they are very good at what they do and they will accommodate the requirements of the customer far better than many other primes i have encountered.
Yes and their marketing team entirely deserves that hate, I've been watching them spin their nonsense around the Gripen E/F for Canada for over a decade at this point and the nightmare still isn't over. Much of Saab's integration is good alongside their equipment, but they are prolific fact spinners when it comes specifically to the Gripen. I'd give them much more slack if they weren't using disingenuous comparisons and nonsensical lines in their marketing. My concerns around integration into NORAD and especially with the F-35 still stand, from both a capability and political reality standpoint.

I'll leave this here as we're encroaching RCAF talk into the RCN channel, more than happy to continue this in the appropriate channel.
 

The CEO of TKMS came in to give an interview with the CBC and the result was......interesting to say the least.

I think it is definitely an interesting strategy to come onto a major Canadian news outlet in the current political landscape and be unwilling to provide even a vague jobs figure tied to your bid, it comes off as TKMS being unprepared or unwilling to back their proposal publicly. This sort of social media strategy has proven effective for Hanwha and especially Saab was of late, and only serves to undermine the Germans. Sitting back and continuing to answer with "our proposal has been sent to Government but we will not share it with the public" does not reflect well on your transparency and trustworthiness as a major partner. With that being said as always these jobs estimates are just that and even then, they are always blown up and very charitable (look at Saab's recent Gripen in Canada nonsense). That doesn't change the PR issues that come with zipping your lips and refusing to engage on such a public stage. Doubly so when such a poor attitude is taken, being dismissive and coming off as smug in the interview itself.

TKMS's CEO did clarify that the German delivery date seems to be pushed up somewhat, now promising a pair of subs by 2032 compared to the prior claim of only a single sub by said date. Worryingly though, it seems he also attached a caveat to that statement where the Canadian Govt will need to have talks with Norway and Germany to get these submarines out of the ongoing production run. Germany has already had to give up submarines out of their original order to Norway when they entered the program, now they seemingly want Canada to fight its way in as well and start playing musical chairs to earn hulls on a reasonable timeline? The timeline and production line is already becoming worryingly clogged, with Germany being forced to purchase and retrofit another entire shipyard to build additional submarines just to keep the process going eventually. It seems exceptionally unlikely that either Germany or Norway will accept further delays to an already hindered program, while Hanwha has reiterated their previous stance that they will provide Canada with one submarine by 2032 and another trio by 2035.

This would allow the Victoria class to be retired in 2035, freeing up effort, funding and personnel to transition over to the new vessels. The Korean timeline does seem somewhat fast so there is definitely some concern to be had with their truthfulness however, they don't seem to be juggling multiple customers and facing chronic yard space shortages like their German counterparts.

With the talk about a split fleet gone and a likely contract awarding by the Summer, things are looking up for the CPSP program. It's a shame TKMS came off looking so poor from this interview, I think they have a great product but I am seriously concerned about their delivery timeline and related stipulations.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group

The CEO of TKMS came in to give an interview with the CBC and the result was......interesting to say the least.

I think it is definitely an interesting strategy to come onto a major Canadian news outlet in the current political landscape and be unwilling to provide even a vague jobs figure tied to your bid, it comes off as TKMS being unprepared or unwilling to back their proposal publicly. This sort of social media strategy has proven effective for Hanwha and especially Saab was of late, and only serves to undermine the Germans. Sitting back and continuing to answer with "our proposal has been sent to Government but we will not share it with the public" does not reflect well on your transparency and trustworthiness as a major partner. With that being said as always these jobs estimates are just that and even then, they are always blown up and very charitable (look at Saab's recent Gripen in Canada nonsense). That doesn't change the PR issues that come with zipping your lips and refusing to engage on such a public stage. Doubly so when such a poor attitude is taken, being dismissive and coming off as smug in the interview itself.

TKMS's CEO did clarify that the German delivery date seems to be pushed up somewhat, now promising a pair of subs by 2032 compared to the prior claim of only a single sub by said date. Worryingly though, it seems he also attached a caveat to that statement where the Canadian Govt will need to have talks with Norway and Germany to get these submarines out of the ongoing production run. Germany has already had to give up submarines out of their original order to Norway when they entered the program, now they seemingly want Canada to fight its way in as well and start playing musical chairs to earn hulls on a reasonable timeline? The timeline and production line is already becoming worryingly clogged, with Germany being forced to purchase and retrofit another entire shipyard to build additional submarines just to keep the process going eventually. It seems exceptionally unlikely that either Germany or Norway will accept further delays to an already hindered program, while Hanwha has reiterated their previous stance that they will provide Canada with one submarine by 2032 and another trio by 2035.

This would allow the Victoria class to be retired in 2035, freeing up effort, funding and personnel to transition over to the new vessels. The Korean timeline does seem somewhat fast so there is definitely some concern to be had with their truthfulness however, they don't seem to be juggling multiple customers and facing chronic yard space shortages like their German counterparts.

With the talk about a split fleet gone and a likely contract awarding by the Summer, things are looking up for the CPSP program. It's a shame TKMS came off looking so poor from this interview, I think they have a great product but I am seriously concerned about their delivery timeline and related stipulations.
I think delivery is key and SKorea seems confident on their schedule. The faster delivery means less money wasted on the Victoria class.
 
Top