New Coronavirus threat

OPSSG

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@seaspear, your clarification is appreciated. I hope your posts going forward would have context, instead of just a link drop.

1. There were 884 deaths in the US in 24 hours, a new record, according to Johns Hopkins University (bringing the death toll to 3,873 deaths). The death toll in April, from the coronavirus pandemic in the US, is expected to more than double as there are 188,172 infected in the US.

2. Here is an interview with Dr. Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House coronavirus task force:

3. US DoD is worried about social unrest and predatory behavior, its leaders said in two press conferences on 24 March and 25 March. “This is affecting different countries differently, and it depends on the level of rigor and robustness of the medical facilities’ capacity inside each country,” says General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on 24 March. “In some cases, it could lead to social breakdowns. It could lead to political chaos in certain countries. We have to be attuned to that.” The same problems hurting the USA could be even greater in other countries, he says. “It could be resource shortages. We see that with masks and gloves and ventilators and so on and so forth, hospital capacities and so on,” says Milley. “These can have severe internal consequences to certain countries that go well beyond the immediate medical issue.”

4. Secretary of defense Mark Esper said on 24 March that the DoD is cautiously watching how the coronavirus impacts foreign relations. “With allies, it may be incumbent upon us to help them with our own supplies, our own doctors, our own assistance,” he says. “With potential adversaries or adversaries, it may cause them to act out in different ways, and in ways that impact our security posture, our readiness. So we need to be very conscious and be on the lookout for that as this unfolds.” Some alleged bad behavior includes spreading false information and cybersecurity attacks. The Chinese foreign ministry suggested on 12 March that “it might be [the] US Army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan”.

5. In March, prominent health organizations, including the World Health Organization and US Health and Human Services Department (HHS), have been hit with sophisticated cyber-attacks. In the case of the HHS, a foreign state is the suspected attacker, reports Bloomberg.

6. Let me end this post with a positive note.

(i) Germany has activated her Intensive Care Unit (ICU) plane to help fellow European Union member, Italy cope with its skyrocketing cases of COVID-19. The plane landed in Bergamo, northern Italy, on 28 Mar 2020 and returned to Cologne, with six Italian patients, who will be treated at various hospitals in the region. Medical experts have described as the world’s best medevac for COVID patient, is an Airbus A310 MedEvac, that will be used to fly COVID-19 patients from Italy to hospitals in Germany. The Airbus A310 MedEvac has a capacity of 44 beds of which 16 are for high intensive care patients, and up to 25 medical staff.​
(ii) Taiwan has pledged to donate 10m face masks to countries hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic including EU member states and the US, in a move that highlights the geopolitical dimension of the pandemic. Taiwan's foreign ministry said 7m of the masks would go to the EU and particularly hard-hit EU member countries as well as the UK and Switzerland, a pledge more than three times the amount China promised the EU.​
(iii) Singapore, a key pillar in Delhi’s Indo-Pacific vision, has donated 30,000 test kits and will supply more, officials said. “Thanked Benedict Cheong, CEO of Temasek Foundation Singapore, for donating 30,000 test kits for COVID 19, which have reached India. A great gesture from a close friend. More likely in the next few days even as Indian ramps up its own production,” tweeted India’s High Commissioner to the city state Jawed Ashraf.​
(iv) A powerful long-lasting disinfectant is now being used to coat lift buttons in Singapore’s public housing estates. Called sdst, the disinfectant lasts for 90 days and does not need to be reapplied in that time. In a press statement on Thursday (Apr 2), Changi Airport Group’s (CAG) philanthropic arm, Changi Foundation, said it had donated 650 litres of the coating to all 16 town councils in Singapore. Bonding agents in the coating also allow it to adhere tightly to surfaces at a molecular level, so that it remains effective even with repeated scrubbing and cleaning. But Dr Teo Ho Pin, co-ordinating chairman of PAP Town Councils, also urged lift users not to press lift buttons with pointed objects such as keys, as hard objects could still scrape the coating off.​
 
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John Fedup

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On a happier note, my Toronto market had toilet paper and paper towels, 2 package limit. I only bought one of each as I have been abandoned in Toronto as the rest of the family are up at Lake Simcoe for the duration. Might be doing the same as work has ceased for me (don’t want to be doing site visits to hospitals and customers don’t have time to see me anyway).
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
When this is all over and an assessment is made of the damage caused to the world's economy I certainly hope China is made fully accountable. However, I have a terrible feeling that the rest of the world will do very little about China's attempted cover-up of the full extent of this disaster.
 

John Fedup

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With much of the world in desperate need of PPE, there isn’t going to be much accountability for some time yet. However, a day of reckoning will happen. It will start with Western companies outsourcing to other countries and hopefully restarting local manufacturing as well. The CCP suppression of information has likely made things worse but by how much, WTF knows. Regardless, China will see consequences it won’t like IMHO several years from now.
 

OPSSG

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Myanmar's Foreign Affairs Ministry said Singapore's Temasek Foundation would donate 10,000 test kits to the country. This is on top of the 3,000 donated by the Singapore Government earlier in March and would mean that Myanmar is set to receive 40,000 more COVID-19 test kits to help it cope with the virus outbreak, days after it detected at least three positive cases. See: Myanmar moves to increase COVID-19 test kit stockpile amid coronavirus battle.

Up until late-February, Myanmar had to send samples to Thailand for testing.
Indonesia lacks of proper facilities, equipment and medical personnel—has a health minister who anywhere else would have been sacked—The country is fighting an uphill battle against the spread of Covid-19 that experts believe will only come to a peak in May or even June.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo is facing mounting public pressure to sack Health Minister Terawan Agus Putranto amid a controversial response to the coronavirus pandemic, as cases rise and Jakarta becomes the country’s epicenter. A hashtag calling for Putranto’s dismissal was also trending on Twitter
 
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hauritz

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This has the potential to be a complete disaster in places such as Indonesia, India, Pakistan in fact just about every nation that has not got the resources to combat this disease. If you shut down, a big percentage of your population could literally end up starving, and if you don't the potential death toll could end up in the millions. It seems this could be a no-win scenario.
 

John Fedup

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You can add in most of Africa and a large part of South America as well. These regions may end up letting the virus run its course (due there limited resources) thus determining whether Trump’s earlier comments suggesting the cure is worse than the disease.
 

Ananda

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This article talk about 18 thousand rapid test being done in Jakarta with 299 positive. This test being given to people with symptoms, or has contacts with positive COVID and people with risky occupation. This is just first wave, but if this is right, means only 1-2% of risky population that have potential since this test need to follow up by PCR test. Risky population it self on Jakarta (which is epicenter of COVID 18 in Indonesia) being asses around 3-4% of total population in Jakarta.
The Government already order million more fast test kits from China, South Korea or begin the process of building it locally. India as another example already order close to 5 million.

The points is, even some critics on rapid test and talk about how accurate that is, the PCR method takes time and in some countries with large population like India and Indonesia, the government must know fast who has The potential risk and then isolated them.
Community involvement in India or Indonesia is very important even more important than government policing effort.

This is the idea that being socializing rapidly. With migrants workers in Big Cities like Jakarta that doing social Distancing/semi lock down, has begin moving back to their originated area, the community there must make sure those people has to be isolated at least for two weeks. Each area government must conduct rapid test for people that come back.

Countries with large population like India and Indonesia will not going to be able to build up fast on health facilities for COVID 19. Fatality rate in Indonesia 2 out of 3 come from elderly and the rest mostly from people that already have cronic disease before. This virus killed 80% through respiratory problem in lungs that need enough respirators availability.

In case for Indonesia, so far most of cases come from middle up segment. What this rapid test aimed is how to contain it from reaching on lower segment. The Work From Home, social Distancing, keep people in home is more to keep the middle up class from infecting each other, but most importantly keeping them to infect the lower class.
If most of lower class through their own community lock down in smaller cities and rural area can isolated people coming from big cities, then the cases will mostly stay in big cities.


This article on antibodies test shown in the end we have to screen population on whose already have or can be imune to the Virus.
In the end every nation will select whose going back to work, whose has risk, and that's include whose they are going to have to let go and die out.
 
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John Fedup

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Judgement day is coming this November and it will be more about the US electorate than the current WH occupant.
 

OPSSG

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@Ananda, thanks for your update on developments in Indonesia.

1. I have 2 points to add on your post on Indonesia.
One, I agree with you that Indonesia needs both rapid test kits (for initial screening as temperature based screening has failed) and PCR test kits to be used in a hospital setting — to start treatment for an infected person and thereafter to prove that an infected person has recovered.​
Two, I believe that the infection rate in any Indonesian city will be much higher than your estimates. This virus is more infectious than I imagined — it starts spreading even before any symptoms is shown. I can confirm that Singapore is struggling to stop the spread with over 1,049 cases, 5 dead and over 38,000 served with notice to stay at home.​

2. On a separate note, Singapore has developed (or is developing) a number of test kits for COVID-19, such as the VereCoV detection kit, Fortitude Kit 2.0, and the ongoing development of a COVID-19 detection kit by iHealthTech researchers. Singapore-listed medtech company Biolidicaunched its 10 min rapid test kit for COVID-19 and has entered into a manufacturer agreement with a diagnostic kit manufacturer to customize and manufacture the rapid test kits. The first batch of Biolidics’ rapid test kits is expected to be available in April 2020. Biolidics has obtained provisional authorization from Singapore’s Health Science Authority (HSA) for its rapid test kit to be used in Singapore.

3. Rapid test kits are antigen tests, a method that targets the virus' protein to detect infection and can deliver results more quickly than the alternative PCR method. But antigen tests require higher level of virus load and therefore could fail to diagnose people correctly when the samples only contain small amount of virus.
 
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Ananda

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Two, I believe that the infection rate in any Indonesian city will be much higher than your estimates. This virus is more infectious than I imagined — it starts spreading even before any symptoms is shown. I can confirm that Singapore is struggling to stop the spread with over 1,049 cases, 5 dead and over 38,000 served with notice to stay at home

This article talking about prediction from National Intelligence Agency on peak in June with around 100K+ cases. I do believe they are understand how infectious the virus is.
What they are plan now is to have the peak in end of April-May, that's why they are trying to keep it out from rural and secondary cities.
Some rural and secondary cities are doing self isolation now eventough they don't have cases yet. This is mostly to keep out migrants workers in Big Cities coming.

Bali for example already locking down any non residences coming. That includes migrants workers. Live and Economics activity in Bali still going on as long as social Distancing conducted, but no outsiders can come in. This is going to hurt economically a lot to an islands that much dependence on one Industry alone, Tourism.

Seems this is what Indonesia choose, more testing especially rapid test, social Distancing in big cities, and reduce movement between area, and allowing district and provincial area government to keep lock down any incoming.
In the meantime the movement of goods and products still rolling to keep Economy going.
Will it work ? If they manage to keep most of infection in big cities (which already in social Distancing and semi lock down mode), then perhaps they can manage to have the peaks in April-May..but most importantly if mostly in Big Cities, despite all the limitations, it still can be relatively handles.
 
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OPSSG

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This article talking about prediction from National Intelligence Agency on peak in June with around 100K+ cases. I do believe they are understand how infectious the virus is.

What they are plan now is to have the peak in end of April-May, that's why they are trying to keep it out from rural and secondary cities.
I do hope that I am wrong and you are correct. Indonesia’s ability to detect infections in much poorer than Singapore and I believe the actual numbers is much higher than 1,790 cases detected in Indonesia. That is why I suspect in a few months, the number of deaths in Jakarta alone will be over 10k (with over 200k infected), if the secondary cities are able to stop the spread.

If there is spread to other Indonesian cities, the death toll, alone will be over 100k.
 
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John Fedup

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This article describes a DoD report warning the US government about the problems any influenza type outbreak would cause. The report is dated January 6, 2017. It is unclear when the WH would have actually received it. It likely got buried by all the other stuff that a new incoming administration faces. Still, some action should have occurred before 2020.

 

tonnyc

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I do hope that I am wrong and you are correct. Indonesia’s ability to detect infections in much poorer than Singapore and I believe the actual numbers is much higher than 1,790 cases detected in Indonesia. That is why I suspect in a few months, the number of deaths in Jakarta alone will be over 10k (with over 200k infected), if the secondary cities are able to stop the spread.

If there is spread to other Indonesian cities, the death toll, alone will be over 100k.
There is no doubt among informed Indonesians that the actual number is much higher than the 1790 cases officially recorded and that this discrepancy is caused by the lack of testing. However, the projections already assumed that. We are banking that social distancing, work from home, and limited quarantine will slow down the doubling rate (i.e., flatten the curve) while we try to catch-up. Nobody assumed that the 1790 official recorded cases represents an accurate picture of the situation. And yes, there are simulations that predicted over 10k deaths.

While I'm not an expert in anything, it doesn't look like there is anything that we can do that isn't already done or being done. We're starting to make PPE en-masse. Factories are being ordered to make ventilators (trivia: Indonesian Aerospace will be making ventilators too). We're trying to make our own rapid test kit so supplement imported test kits. Our response is not dissimilar to what Malaysia and Singapore are doing. We do have less resources after accounting for the population size though, and this is going to limit our capability in various ways. Our health minister, Terawan Putranto, is also incompetent. I may seem to use that word a lot, but it's the most appropriate description I can think of. He seems to have been sidelined, so hopefully he can get out of the way and let the doctors work.

There is also a significant number of people who demands a hard lockdown like in India or Philippines, but I do not believe that it will have a significantly better result than limited lockdown that we are currently doing. But this something that time will tell.

As an aside, the official term for our limited/semi/soft lockdown is Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (Mass Scale Social Restrictions) or PSBB. You'll be seeing that term often in our news.

PS: The virus is not limited to Jakarta. We already assume that all the major cities have cases and are acting accordingly.
 
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John Fedup

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The Province of Ontario has come out with a hard assessment on what the possible modelling on COVID-19 is suggesting for what is in store here, something our “leader” in Ottawa hasn’t yet been willing to step up too...big effing surprise.

Premier Doug Ford, older brother of Toronto’s deceased cocaine mayor, was in IMO, the one provincial Premier who would emulate Trump and screw things up. Seems I was 100% wrong and I am glad I was.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-projections-1.55195751585937754132.png
 

seaspear

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There has been some discussion in this forum and elsewhere the usage of masks , this article suggests that quality assurance guidelines may have not been adhered to and globalisation could be at fault here
There are international standards on masks
I would also note that many of the standards can not be downloaded to to read for guidance but can only be bought
The Australian government also did this some years ago so this legislation on quality control efffecting more than a thousand standards across different industries would have to be purchased by any one in this country seeking guidance on compliance , these standards even cover O.H.S
Its a concern to read of companies producing and supplying sub standard equipment or ppe that is likely to be highly dangerous
 

ngatimozart

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With much of the world in desperate need of PPE, there isn’t going to be much accountability for some time yet. However, a day of reckoning will happen. It will start with Western companies outsourcing to other countries and hopefully restarting local manufacturing as well. The CCP suppression of information has likely made things worse but by how much, WTF knows. Regardless, China will see consequences it won’t like IMHO several years from now.
We're making our own masks here in NZ and the factory is in full production. Some outfits and individuals with 3D printers are printing up face shields, but it's low production rates. The siblings that own the Zuru toy company have used their connections in China to organise 5 plane loads of PPE and other medical supplies. They manufacture their toys there.

Each day we get a televised briefing from the Director General of Health and one other, sometimes the Head of Civil Defence & Emergency, or Commissioner of NZ Police, or Head of All Of Govt Corona Taskforce. 2 hours after that the PM and / another Minister gives a televised briefing to the media and nation. After both there are Q&As. This is broadcast on free to air tv. This happens every day.
 

t68

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And just to lighten the mood a little............Production of Corona beer is being temporarily suspended in Mexico because of the coronavirus.


Not that it worries me but I’m a Hahn super dry and Bundaberg rum guy anyway
 

John Fedup

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The brewers of Sol should be happy, prefer it over Corona. COVID-19 instead of corona virus nomenclature from the get-go have helped, real bummer for their brand name.
 

Nighthawk.NZ

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We're making our own masks here in NZ and the factory is in full production.
Pretty sure they are ramped up to make around up to 250,000 a day when at max capacity plus other PPE as well.

NZ makes them from NZ wool as it's a really great base for them, far better than many synthetic materials, wool and carbon are both easy materials for us to make. (So I read somewhere)
 
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