New Coronavirus threat

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
NZ is just about 24 hours into lockdown. It appears to have gone OK with most Kiwis abiding by the rules. The Police Commissioner has said that the police will educate people on the error of their ways first, but if they get repeat offenders they be invited back to the police house to experience some of the police's famed hospitality. If the invitee becomes somewhat smart about things and still doesn't see the error of their ways, they'll be invited to spend time in a very comfortable police room in which they'll have plenty of time for contemplation.

No hunting or fishing, no boating, no golf, no going bush, or for drives. Bakeries and butcheries are closed. From midnight Friday only air travel and interisland ferry will be for essential purposes only. All freight traffic of foods fuels etc., is regarded as essential services so that will continue as normal. The British Imperial tobacco factory in Wellington was open and working today claiming it was an essential service, but I cannot see how it can be. If it isn't on the list, it could prove to be very expensive for them.

NZ is about 10 days away from the first indications if this lockdown has worked and wasn't to late. We already have about four clusters so far, and although they aver very small compared to other nations, the clustering process has started, as has community transfer, which is only in single digits yesterday and today. Today there are a total of 283 confirmed cases in NZ within an increase of 78 cases in the preceding 24 hour period.

Stay safe everyone and wash your hands.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
NZ is about 10 days away from the first indications if this lockdown has worked and wasn't to late. We already have about four clusters so far, and although they aver very small compared to other nations, the clustering process has started, as has community transfer, which is only in single digits yesterday and today. Today there are a total of 283 confirmed cases in NZ within an increase of 78 cases in the preceding 24 hour period.

Stay safe everyone and wash your hands.
Even if the lockdown in NZ works, to prevent a resurgence, extensive testing of suspect cases needs to take place (with the test conducted over multiple days) — to stop re-emergence of new clusters (which has occurred in Singapore with 73 new cases confirmed).

With 631 infected, Singapore (comparable in total population to NZ) has had to test 39,000 people thus far. This means our health system consumed between 80,000 to 110,000 test kits — to get an idea of the scary numbers. As the virus may not be easily detected in some infected patients early in the course of the disease, a second sample for testing taken on a different day or at a different time would help to reduce the risk of a false-negative result. This may reflect the different viral dynamics where there are certain days when the illness can be detected better.
Read more at Explainer: Why some Covid-19 patients visit the doctor twice or thrice before they receive a diagnosis
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #144
Here’s a research summary that describes NGS (next generation sequencing) for identifying viruses. DNA sequencing has come a long in the last 20 years and the NGS machines will be orders of magnitude better. However, as the authors correctly mention, these machines are currently very expensive and operation and analysis skills are beyond the average clinical laboratory. Why Are Dangerous New Viruses So Hard To Identify?
 

seaspear

Active Member
Recently having viewed several different training courses on means to prevent catching this virus and desease control left me wondering how well hospital wards are designed to accomodate people with this or similar illlness , watching one video of a nurse showing how to safely don and takeoff safety ppe before and leaving patients room I noticed that the room was not controlled by negative airpressure so any airborne virus could follow the aircurrent of the swinging door nurse did not have any coverage over shoes despite the virus in the room being able survive on floor surfaces and leather ,in this case the nurse removed her gloves on leaving and I would presume not to have her gloves on when removing her shoes ,there have of course been a number of medical staff to have been come infected themselves
 
Recently having viewed several different training courses on means to prevent catching this virus and desease control left me wondering how well hospital wards are designed to accomodate people with this or similar illlness , watching one video of a nurse showing how to safely don and takeoff safety ppe before and leaving patients room I noticed that the room was not controlled by negative airpressure so any airborne virus could follow the aircurrent of the swinging door nurse did not have any coverage over shoes despite the virus in the room being able survive on floor surfaces and leather ,in this case the nurse removed her gloves on leaving and I would presume not to have her gloves on when removing her shoes ,there have of course been a number of medical staff to have been come infected themselves
Overseas medical staff infections have been about 14%. But alot higher in some places.

Also the reliance on hand sanitiser and removal of wash basins of late has proven to be an issue. And the lack of showers.

Big thing was late action resulting in lack of gowns and masks.

But at the moment Wellington Ed and icu are unusually quiet.

Another point is nurses and Dr's should have a shoe allowance so they can leave a pair there then throw them out. Can't buy any at the moment now anyway.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
@seaspear, the majority of the 631 coronavirus cases (of which 404 remain as patients) in Singapore are either transferred to or housed in wards without negative air pressure. The 387 who are hospitalised (with another 17 in ICU) have not infected the more than 1,000 frontline doctors, nurses and medical staff working in hospitals and providing daily care for them.
  • 65 of the 631 coronavirus cases are discharged to isolation at Concord International Hospital, Mount Elizabeth Hospital, and the Community Isolation Facility at D’Resort NTUC .
  • 160 of the 631 coronavirus cases are discharged.
There are 3 more points to note:

One, there is zero transmission in insolation wards, in Singapore, thus far.​
Two, Singapore has started transferring infected patients into private hospital wards or to a Community Isolation Facility to free up space in public hospitals in anticipation of the arrival/return of 200,000 Singaporeans from abroad (many of whom are sick).​
Three, there are 364 imported cases in Singapore (and the number of new coronavirus cases is growing by 30 to 40 daily, as more than 1,000 Singaporeans are returning from abroad daily).​

In addition, I spoke to a medical professional in Singapore involved in the SARS outbreak (who volunteered to work with the SARS wards) — her entire team have high confidence in the protocol taught in Singapore (not sure about your video). The key is to trust that every member of the team adheres to protocol. She tells me that even after they leave the ward, after removing the PPE, and disinfecting their hands, they still keep their mask on for their shift. She believes that her team’s adherence to protocol is key to safety in the SARS fight (but cautions that exhaustion is the leading cause for lack of adherence to protocol).

But the patients needing the most invasive care (requiring intubation or other such procedure) or arriving sick from abroad are often initially housed at the 330 bed National Centre for Infectious Diseases, which has a negative air pressure system.

Singapore’s ministry of health has clarified that the World Health Organisation (WHO) had reaffirmed that the COVID-19 virus is spread mainly through droplets. However, the WHO noted that certain specialised procedures performed in healthcare settings may cause the virus to be aerosolised, and recommended that healthcare professionals take extra precautions in such settings. All hospitals in Singapore have put in place these extra precautions since the start of the outbreak.
I note that ironically, a medical social worker and a Psychologist (who had been in the United States from 2 March to 7 March) and works in the Singapore General Hospital have been infected with the coronavirus — who were not providing care for coronavirus patients.
 
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seaspear

Active Member

I have some reluctance placing the second post as it can be construed as attacking a country acting in desperate circumstances , but if these purchases led to shortfalls in care elsewhere so be it.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member

I have some reluctance placing the second post as it can be construed as attacking a country acting in desperate circumstances, but if these purchases led to shortfalls in care elsewhere so be it.
1. It’s a fact — so more than ok.

2. More than likely, these masks were purchased for Greenland Group’s staff and their families — for business continuity purposes until the total lockdown in Hubei (when all business stopped for the duration of the lockdown). My understanding is that everyone (1.36 billion people) in China wears a mask and without one you will not be allowed to take public transport (eg. buses or mass transit) and life is slowing returning to normal. The tight lockdown succeeded (and it is now safer in China than UK or the US). China’s concern now is the return of Chinese nationals from abroad — with targeted measures to manage this risk.

3. There is no longer a mask shortage in China, as I have friends in China shipping masks to me in Singapore (as I am finding it difficult to buy here — they are shipping 1 box each of 3 different brands to me).

4. Singapore has 631 coronavirus cases (of which 404 remain as patients) but it is not a norm to wear masks in Singapore (only about 10% to 15% wear them). The number of people wearing masks is slowing rising due to the emergence of two new local clusters.

5. At the start of the outbreak, Singapore took the conservative approach of admitting all Covid-19 cases, regardless of severity, until they tested negative twice over 24 hours.
But now, it is clear that about 80 per cent of cases are mild or moderate, with many hospitalised cases experiencing mild symptoms similar to the flu. This is why the Government has started tapping private hospitals and setting up community care facilities. Concord International Hospital along Adam Road started accepting well and stable Covid-19 patients and Mount Elizabeth Hospital saw its first such patient too.
 
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I have some reluctance placing the second post as it can be construed as attacking a country acting in desperate circumstances , but if these purchases led to shortfalls in care elsewhere so be it.
Ive seen reports of several European and one African nation doing exactly the same.
And officials of those nations too.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Even if the lockdown in NZ works, to prevent a resurgence, extensive testing of suspect cases needs to take place (with the test conducted over multiple days) — to stop re-emergence of new clusters (which has occurred in Singapore with 73 new cases confirmed).

With 631 infected, Singapore (comparable in total population to NZ) has had to test 39,000 people thus far. This means our health system consumed between 80,000 to 110,000 test kits — to get an idea of the scary numbers. As the virus may not be easily detected in some infected patients early in the course of the disease, a second sample for testing taken on a different day or at a different time would help to reduce the risk of a false-negative result. This may reflect the different viral dynamics where there are certain days when the illness can be detected better
Read more at Explainer: Why some Covid-19 patients visit the doctor twice or thrice before they receive a diagnosis
The current lockdown is for a minimum of 4 weeks. Depending upon the situation some restrictions may be eased temporarily in some areas for a short time then fully reinstated for a long period. This will continue until there is either a viable treatment or vaccine. That's the plan that's been announced by the NZG.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #157
Given China’s past behaviour back in Dec-Jan, I see no reason to accept their proclaimed number of cases. After all, China has a billion more people than the US. We will soon know how accurately they are reporting when the world experiences the second wave of infections once relaxation starts. Hopefully an easy to use antigen test kit arrives soon that will provide data on how much of the population actually has been exposed and has since recovered.
 
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