With the continued IDF strikes now broadening the target list to include Propaganda sites and more IRGC sites it looks like Israel may have moved beyond the degradation of the Nuke sites and perhaps shifted to total regime change. It appears they are not striking regular Army units but Quds and IRGC. Maybe thinking the regular army isn’t as radicalized and may be able to step in and protect any type of civilian revolt against the regime.
Thoughts?
Regime change would require measures that I am currently not aware if they are being done. I provided a list earlier of what those measures might be, but briefly it's not just the IRGC, but rather the Basij, C2, and anything related to IRGC's crowd-control capabilities.
I highlighted if. This is your extrapolation of her statement, correct?
I can only assume she meant nuclear breakout.
I would read at face value that the US assessed that there is no decision to go nuclear in 2025 and she said exactly what she wanted to say. Then we are left with Israel's / Bibi's statement that Iran was on the verge of "breakout".
If you are saying this is not about a breakout, then what do you mean by "not going nuclear"? Do you mean Iran did not have a nuclear program to begin with? No Uranium mining, no enrichment, no conversion, no weaponization?
Because my understanding of the situation is that there are 2 possible situations:
- Status quo of Iranian enrichment below a certain threshold, that allows it to make progress by increasing the number of weapons they can construct, but not to construct nuclear weapons from it yet.
- Begin the construction of nuclear weapons at least from what they have.
Is there some 3rd option you think she implies? And if so, explain why.
Trumpy kinda answers your questions.
But colour me skeptical if you expect me to believe Israel's convenient casus belli, which is not confirmed by the US, who has an active interest to see Iran stopped.
Who asked you to believe it?
The talk for regime change in Iran by Israel is delusional idea as picture above. Pahlevi? Really? and if this is the idea of Israel for alternative that they want to sell to Iran mass, shown how delusional Netanyahu is.
Literally none in Israel's defense establishment and government, nor their American counterparts, has mentioned Reza Pahlavi in the context of the current campaign. So who is delusional?
Regime change can only happens with boots on the ground.
That is just factually wrong and there is an abundance of evidence against your claim. Just recently it happened in Lebanon when Hezbollah was overthrown, with no boots on the ground. At least not Israeli ones.
Not by Fighters Jets above, and Iran do still send missiles to Israel, despite all the Israel Defence Force claim they have reach total aerial supremacy. Iran continue sending missiles shown otherwise.
Is it though?
The term "air supremacy" has a meaning. As does "air superiority", which is a separate term with a distinct meaning. This is important because IDF claims to have aerial
superiority, not supremacy.
In simple terms, because these are indeed simple terms, air supremacy means one side has total or very near total control over a certain airspace. Whereas air superiority means one side has some clear advantage over their opponent within that airspace.
For example Russia and Ukraine routinely strike each other with slow flying drones but it is undeniable that both have clear air superiority over their respective territories. They do not have aerial superiority beyond the frontline, nor do they have aerial supremacy over theirs.
Iranian missiles flying over and into Israel certainly does not negate in any way Israel's aerial superiority over western Iran and Tehran as very clearly stated by the IDF. It just means there is no supremacy.
The aerial superiority in this case however is clear and undeniable. Iran has already lost a reported 50% of its TELs, the real bottleneck of its launch capability. And it's perfectly fine to be skeptical of that figure, so you can easily observe that with every passing night Iran fires fewer and fewer missiles. From 190 in the first night, to 75 on the next night, and now 2 consecutive days of about 20-30.
US that can have any "potential" abilities for regime change, not Israel.
Ahh yes, the good old "Israel can't do X" followed by Israel doing 10X.
However US know getting regime change in Iran is much harder then Iraq or Libya. If that easy, they already do that long time ago.
Weird, kinda very baseless assumption. But ok.
There will be no Parsi Spring uprising movement as some in West or Israel hope. Talking about how Iran regime as dictator while send Jet Fighters attack, is just delusional if it is hope to trigger uprising.
Because Iranians love the IRGC so much?
