Middle East Defence & Security
- Thread starter MaenZ
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Posted by some Australian nutjob Neo-Nazi called TrueBlueRebel. All I am seeing is some guy making all sorts of unverified claims. Reality is that there are only a handful of Iranian Jews left in Iran, around 9,000 or so. The bulk of them, over 200,000, now actually reside in Israel.
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KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Yes, but is it really unexpected considering the capabilities at the Iranian hands? Probably not. Decades of sanctions and the regime prioritizing offensive strike capabilities, while wasting asinine resources on the proxies and the ludicrous “death to America, death to Israel” agenda, etc. Granted, I saw reports that even Israeli command was somewhat surprised how incompetent the Iranians revealed themselves to be.
I don’t know if this is entirely true. We have next to none BDA on the Iranian hits, other than civilian infrastructure. Sure, there are a couple of videos with secondary explosions, maybe some AD units hit, various claims, and so on. We have dozens of satellite images to confirm Israeli strikes in Iran, but I have not seen one of Israel. It certainly looks like they are running a very tight ship (and I would stress the lack of satellite imagery on the Israeli side of the riddle).
Yes, and again, the gap in capabilities is quite staggering (but not unexpected). If I recall correctly, Iran opted against the acquisition of S-400s because they figured they would manage with what they have. However, with severely lacking counterintelligence, I doubt it would help much.
Israel appears to hit deeper and deeper into the territory of Iran.
This whole thing and the reaction from many somewhat reminds me the beginning of the War in Ukraine: high expectations ruined by the reality revealing itself. I am not saying it is the same thing, but the parallels are there (or so I think).
Well, I believe the events of the past few years and now explain it themselves rather nicely, no? In particular, this refers to your “The most that Israel can do is this genocide in the Gaza ghetto” statement.
Is it though?
Of course, this is what I was referring to.
I would think that Iranian ability to enrich will never be on the table, unless Iran is fully defeated, which is probably not going to happen.
I will disagree. Your argument is not very convincing.
My country has nothing (or very little) to do with my opinion.
The American intelligence came up with a different assessment just very recently. I do not believe public revelations by Israeli intelligence. It is clear as day why Israel decided to strike now. There has never been a better time to do so. The entire operation took years to prepare. It would not be rational for Israel to delay the strike even longer, especially if there was potential, however little, for a deal to be had (Iran-US). The “breakthrough” is simply the justification for the hostilities.
I was referring to the populace that was either against or indifferent. I don’t think everyone in the political/military circles was fully supportive of the idea either. The consequences are now (and always were) pretty clear (see the present). What happened changes the calculus entirely though.
I don’t know if everyone in Israel is convinced of that, but I can certainly cite more articles with conclusion different from that assessment than I can those supporting it. Just to clarify, I am not talking about “journalistic investigations” and the like, but actual expert opinions.
Anyway, we will see what happens.
I don’t believe this is good news for Ukraine any way you slice it. Especially if it takes time.
But I am wondering if this will have any effect on the Geran UAVs production, in spite of reports that Russia does not rely on Iran anymore at all. I am about 99% certain it will have none, but there is that somewhat irrational 1% at the back of the head, so to speak.
Middle East Spectator – MES
—❗️/ WATCH: An Israeli AD battery, likely Arrow-3, misfires and destroys its own launcher in the Negev @Middle_East_Spectator
t.me
An Israeli AD battery, likely Arrow-3, misfires and destroys its own launcher in the Negev
Hoover
New Member
The impact of the failed Arrow seems to be a few hundred meters away from the launcher.Middle East Spectator – MES
—❗️/ WATCH: An Israeli AD battery, likely Arrow-3, misfires and destroys its own launcher in the Negev @Middle_East_Spectator
An Israeli AD battery, likely Arrow-3, misfires and destroys its own launcher in the Negev
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Yeah. Notice the big dip started on June 11th, before the operation started on June 13th.
Never was. Negotiations reportedly reached a dead end when Iran kept insisting on enrichment. Then the 60 day deadline passed and Iran lost most of its enrichment capability.
So you believe the current course of action is meant to destabilize the regime? Remember, much has happened between now and when I asserted that relevant regime targets weren't yet attacked.
So you reject intelligence simply based on a gut feeling?
Iran is not a federation of autonomous tribes, who get to vote whether to have nukes or not. Nor do the people matter. If they voice their opinion they get shot or hanged.
Can you cite said assessment?
The idea that quantity > quality has been thoroughly invalidated in the past few days, with Iran's "quantities of MRBMs" crumbling in the face of quality.
I personally do not subscribe to the idea that 3 "experts" > 1 "expert" when it comes to their analysis.
Words like "expert" and "journalist" are practically meaningless in 2025.
Perhaps instead of backing your claim with quantity, you could back it up with your own logic and analytical capabilities?