Middle East Defence & Security

[Big_Zucchini]

More recent statistics shed light on several phenomenons. Previously I saw info indicating Hamas used child soldiers as young as 14, and I was unaware of elderly ones. It is possible the new reality demanded they expand their recruitment criteria.
The source is unnamed but it is said to be derived from a list provided by Hamas including names and ID. That is, unidentified are excluded.

As with any society, male-female split is very near 50-50. We get however an indication on who's uninvolved and who's uninvolved by seeing where the lines separate. Notice the graph of uninvolved is descending with age due to the high birth rate in Gaza.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1904881524031311970

1. Cutoff is at 10 years, indicating child soldiers.
2. Majority of KIA are 30 years old, showing Hamas was more of a career than a short military service (Not new to me but figured it might be to you).
3. Bump among women around 30. That is a mystery to me.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Major movement of US strategic bombers to Diego Garcia the past few days.
It's precisely the lack of media coverage of it that raises the chances of it being a real preparation for a strike (on Iran). If it's for deterrence, as IMO it's unlikely a strike will happen, then deterrence works even better without the media.
Possibly the US flexing and keeping assets close by just in case diplomacy with Iran fails.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1904876384956100919

 

[John Fedup]

I don't think it will have any real effect now or later, but it's still interesting so I'm sharing.
Anti-Hamas protests in Gaza are now a thing.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1904861830440247556

Perhaps protests 24-36 months earlier would have been more useful albeit many would have died it but likely way less (especially if Arab countries interceded) than than a massive IDF retaliatory invasion. As for the present, how many human shields does Hamas want to lose killing protesters?

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Perhaps protests 24-36 months earlier would have been more useful albeit many would have died it but likely way less (especially if Arab countries interceded) than than a massive IDF retaliatory invasion. As for the present, how many human shields does Hamas want to lose killing protesters?

With a birth rate so high, they really don't care. Fewer mouths to feed, if anything.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Ignore the AI photo. This guy makes good points.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1905257208931025390

I'll quote:

Israel’s modern mode of thinking is entirely different than psyche & mindset of its enemies, says psychologist & researcher Ofer Grosbard. Israel must develop a much deeper understanding of how its enemies see the world.
Israel’s flawed psychological perceptions led to severe strategic failures, Grosbard says; in an interview with Maariv Online, he argues that Israel must adopt new strategic approach based on 5 principles:

1. Verbal threats against Israel must be taken seriously. Enemy leaders & their followers are fully committed to Israel's destruction. These are not empty words. Israel must proactively and consistently attack these enemies.
   
   
2. Targeted eliminations of enemy leaders are vital. While not a magic solution, such actions are highly significant, delivering a severe blow to the self-confidence of Israel’s adversaries.
   
   
3. Israeli policy of containing threats projects weakness & fuels hatred. Passive approach reinforces the notion in the eyes of the world & our enemies that attacks on Israel with no response are a normal state of affairs.
   
   
4. Economic incentives offered by Israel have no impact on enemy leaders. They're wealthy, don’t need financial rewards & don't mind sacrificing their own people. They are likely to exploit economic aid to bolster their own leadership status & boost military capabilities.
   
   
5. Israel must break its addiction to short-term calm, which carries high costs in the long run. The pursuit of illusory peace must end, as well as the reluctance to strike enemies before they attack us. Israel must favor ongoing preemptive action.

My 2 cents on this analysis, in the same order:

1. When someone tells you who they are - believe them. I always believe in giving people/things a chance. If they extend an arm for peace, go all the way. If they start making threats, it's time to take military action and escalate until they agree that threats don't solve things.
   
   
2. Aside from self confidence, persistent targeting of leadership, not just top leadership but across all echelons - political, military, from strategic to tactical level. This ensures that even if they persist in hostility, their leadership will be of lower quality, and members will be deterred from rising through the ranks and thus from being recruited in the first place.
   
   
3. I agree. Every nation's security policy should be inherently proactive.
   
   
4. This refers directly to the "conception" as it is widely called in Israel. The concept that economical prosperity and improved quality of life will incentivize calm and peace. It has been tried and failed numerous times, but October 7th finally put the final nail in the coffin.
   
   
5. If in the early 2000's Israel had committed to a persistent strike campaign against Iranian MIC and nuclear facilities, an Iranian escalation vs Israel would not be made possible. Today Iran possesses thousands of ballistic missiles it can fire on Israel. Shooting them all down would be both costly and unrealistic.

Re: Strategic aviation buildup in Diego Garcia.
Although signs of increased readiness, these are also possibly negotiation tactics.
Multiple CSG should also arrive soon before the strike package could be described as completed, but signs of real strike intentions would probably consist of:

• Evacuation of valuable assets from Al Udeid and other major US bases in the gulf.
• Evacuation orders for civilians in the area.
• NOTAMs across Iran and much of the gulf area.

After several days of Hezbollah firing rockets at Israel, Israel is now responding with an evacuation warning for an area in the Shi'te part of Beirut.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1905573169534058996

EDIT: 2 roof knocks were reported so far. The Lebanese government is gathering to discuss these developments.
IMO: The Lebanese government must decide whether it takes military action to drive out Hezbollah and prevent rocket fire into Israel, or stay on course and risk resumed fighting.
It's not a clear decision. Strategically, Lebanon benefits from potential resumed Israeli strikes on Hezbollah. Less things to worry about. On the other hand, it'll only further cement the idea that Lebanon is incapable of maintaining order within its borders, which will have an effect on normalization talks.
Lebanon demands territorial exchange. Weak and inactive central government would not persuade Israel and the US.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I struggle to understand how an Israeli-Syrian normalization would look like.
It's not peace, but so far normalization as part of the Abraham Accords has pretty much been peace-like.
I'm assuming much like in the past, the main obstacle would be the definition of Syria.
Is it an independent state? Or is it a proxy to a hostile power? Is it the full Syria? Or will millions of Syrians remain outside of Jolani's control?
I'm open to surprises, but I don't expect anything to come out of it in the next couple years.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1907076922389237882

 

[Feanor]

I struggle to understand how an Israeli-Syrian normalization would look like.
It's not peace, but so far normalization as part of the Abraham Accords has pretty much been peace-like.
I'm assuming much like in the past, the main obstacle would be the definition of Syria.
Is it an independent state? Or is it a proxy to a hostile power? Is it the full Syria? Or will millions of Syrians remain outside of Jolani's control?
I'm open to surprises, but I don't expect anything to come out of it in the next couple years.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1907076922389237882

Presumably this just means "please stop bombing us so we can go pummel our ethnic and religious minorities into submission without worrying about external factors".

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Presumably this just means "please stop bombing us so we can go pummel our ethnic and religious minorities into submission without worrying about external factors".

They'll struggle to do that unless they have some big sponsor that Israel would probably rule out in any normalization effort so...

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Syrians shouting about a new October 7th.
Barbarians are all around, and Israel's post-Assad policy is getting further validated with every passing day.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1908796421362286769

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Developed nations' markets are crashing, at 5% - 10% drops and some even exceeding that.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1909172837979398169

Meanwhile, Israel's TA-35 and TA-125 indexes have dropped "only" 2.4%.

Specifically on the trade war:
Israel announced a few days ago it'll remove all tariffs from the US. However Israel did not even have meaningful tariffs on the US to begin with. An empty statement.
The US imposed a 17% tariff on Israel, estimated to cost Israel some $2.3 billion.
Trump and Netanyahu will meet today, and it's assumed tariffs will be on the agenda.

It's possible Israel will ask to reduce tariffs to the baseline 10% if not further reduce them.

The economical "fear factor" in Israel is much lower than the general west. It's barely in the news, and this could also somewhat explain the more graceful drop in Israel. This is likely also partially because Israelis believe it'll be resolved.

This unique Trump-Netanyahu dialogue is also an indicator that Israel's more closed doors and practical approach to geopolitics and general relations with the US are more effective than European strategies.
I'm not sure the muscle flexing in Europe is contributing to lowering the fear factor and to resolving the situation.


Regarding CENTCOM vs Houthis:
I thought Trump would change policy on usage of strategic weapons e.g. Harpoons, JASSM, LRASM etc that are crucial to INDOPACOM.
While JDAMs and SDBs were indeed more frequently used, so has the use of strategic munitions as the intensity grew.
I was dead wrong in that assessment. I hope they'll stop wasting precious munitions.

The silver lining is it could finally push decision makers to start mass producing these weapons. But I'm pessimistic on that.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

A JPost article casually mentioning Iran's ballistic missile production at 14 missiles per week, or >700 annually.
Not sure if these are all types or MRBMs only, but given the context being Israeli planning, these are likely MRBMs.

'Post' reveals: Why and how Israel missed its chance to strike Iran's nuclear sites - exclusive

JPost reveals for the first time the full extent of the debates between Israel's political and security echelons over striking in Tehran.

www.jpost.com

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Been a while since any major development has occurred regarding the regional war, but some interesting processes are occurring.

1. Hezbollah's disarmament is going better than expected. Lebanon's government is clearing some areas faster than expected, and there were even instances of Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups surrendering arms and being arrested.

2. Israeli airstrikes continue in Lebanon (as per ceasefire agreement) with 0 response from Hezbollah so far, indicating Hezbollah is thoroughly deterred, demoralized, and broken.

3. In Gaza, the IDF seems (according to satellite footage) to prepare the ground in several ways.
A. Rafah buffer zone is being expanded massively.
B. Rafah is being flattened and rubble is cleared. Ground is paved in a way that indicates a future tent city.
C. Netzarim and Morag corridors are being expanded.
D. Buffer zone into Gaza is being expanded.

4. It's indicated that the plan is to evacuate the entire population of Gaza to Rafah into the large camp being prepared. Aid will be distributed from just 1 location in Gaza, directly from IDF-controlled territory, in order to reduce thefts that allow Hamas to stay politically relevant.

5. New poll reveals 47% of Gazans are willing to leave Gaza if given the option. Small numbers of Gazans with foreign citizenship have already left via Israel.

6. The US initiated a massive strike campaign on the Houthis and recently stopped following a ceasefire announcement.

7. Israel and Houthis engaged more directly recently after a Houthi missile landed very close to Israel's Ben Gurion international airport, and Israel retaliated by destroying the Houthis' only international airport in Sanaa, and their sea port in Hodeidah.

8. Various mysterious explosions are occurring in Iran including in its largest sea port, during talks with the US regarding its nuclear program.


Large strike wave against rocket launchers and infrastructure in Lebanon.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920397154037674241