Middle East Defence & Security

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member

Russia augment existing Mig-29 in IRAF fleet as stop gap until Su-35 come. Also Chinese HQ-9 and Russia S-400 are on the way. The latter one more on Iran claim. However it is certainly shown Iran rebuilding it's Air Defense.
That MiG-29 announcement raises some questions. Are they MiG-29M/M2 or are they old MiG-29S/A/B from Russian inventory? The latter would be easier to operate since Iran already has some old MiG-29s. But they wouldn't be very useful. The former would be a substantial improvement, but then why is it a stopgap measure. The MiG-29M production line exists and is basically not being used, so it would make sense that Russia could deliver the type easier then Su-35S which they use themselves very actively.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Big Z, we are at the point where the discussion has no benefit to continue. You say I should go beyond the article, then say everything is in the article. You say Halevi, chief of general staff until a few months ago, simply quotes Hamas numbers, that are fake. It’s mostly Palestinians that kill each other. Israel does nothing wrong. You are talking about me believing fairytales and wanting to stub a Jew (and yet, I am the one discrediting myself!). For whatever reason, you think I watch televised news, along with many other weird assumptions. You constantly say I don’t know things and don’t understand something. And so on. What’s the point? There is none.

Important to note, when you think most of everyone is antisemite, it might be time to self reflect and look in the mirror. As in if you think the problem is everyone else and not you, you should look in the mirror and give things a thought. Of course, another option is to keep advising others to educate themselves instead.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Big Z, we are at the point where the discussion has no benefit to continue. You say I should go beyond the article, then say everything is in the article. You say Halevi, chief of general staff until a few months ago, simply quotes Hamas numbers, that are fake. It’s mostly Palestinians that kill each other. Israel does nothing wrong. You are talking about me believing fairytales and wanting to stub a Jew (and yet, I am the one discrediting myself!). For whatever reason, you think I watch televised news, along with many other weird assumptions. You constantly say I don’t know things and don’t understand something. And so on. What’s the point? There is none.

Important to note, when you think most of everyone is antisemite, it might be time to self reflect and look in the mirror. As in if you think the problem is everyone else and not you, you should look in the mirror and give things a thought. Of course, another option is to keep advising others to educate themselves instead.
What are my options when debating someone who makes no effort to correct their false assumptions? I believe I am being sufficiently polite, and thoughtful in writing these long form comments even though going through the routine Israeli grilling routine for years and years.

I can teach to prefer primary sources and analysis over partisan secondary and tertiary sources. I cannot force anyone to accept that.
 

Redshift

Active Member
What's white ? Is this the external skin complexion ? Is this more cultural ? Cause Persian like Northern Indian, Afghanis, Pakistanis are belong to Aryan group. Let's remember whose in 30's that talk pure Aryan blood as supreme white race. As Aryan, they are not delusional call them selves white.

Remember not long ago and even now there are those that still believe Slavic is not Euro whites but mongrel race. So who is White ? The Aryan ? Persian actually can call themselves more Aryan then those in Western Euro from certain anthropological perspective.




Will China going to become their main supplier? China and Russia perhaps not too care on US and Euro concern at this moment, but they do have concern with what Rich Gulf kingdoms have to say.
Aryan (outside of Nazi ideology ) pertains to those speaking a proto Indo/European/Iranian language, the idea is that all of these modern days languages have a common ancestry it doesn't really denote anything to do with physical characteristics .

Thus none who speaks any of the above can be more or less Aryan than than anyone else in the above language group.

As far as I am aware only Nazis tried to add a physical description of the so called Aryan peoples and funnily enough Hitler himself possessed none of those physical attributes.

adjective
1.
dated
relating to or denoting peoples speaking Indo-European (or specifically Indo-Iranian) languages, or ancient peoples thought to have spoken Proto-Indo-European, the hypothetical language from which Indo-European languages are believed to derive.
"the Aryan invasion theory is much debated"
2.
(in Nazi ideology) of or denoting white non-Jewish people, especially those of northern European origin or descent typically having blonde hair and bluue eyes and regarded as a supposedly superior racial group.
"Adolf Hitler's myth of Aryan supremacy"
noun
1.
dated
a member of a people speaking an Indo-European (or specifically Indo-Iranian) language, or of an ancient people thought to have spoken the hypothetical proto-Indo-European language.
"the place of origin of the Aryans has been variously sought in Europe and Asia"
2.
(in Nazi ideology) a white non-Jewish person, especially one of northern European origin or descent typically having blonde hair and blue eyes and regarded as belonging to a supposedly superior racial group.
"he looked the image of the ideal Aryan: tall, with Nordic blonde hair"
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
What are my options when debating someone who makes no effort to correct their false assumptions? I believe I am being sufficiently polite, and thoughtful in writing these long form comments even though going through the routine Israeli grilling routine for years and years.

I can teach to prefer primary sources and analysis over partisan secondary and tertiary sources. I cannot force anyone to accept that.
Sufficiently polite? Is it the Jew stabbing part?

Just to throw it at you, to show you how little clue you actually have with your nonsensical assumptions that you accuse others of, my kids are part Jewish, candles are lit in our house on Hanukah (more often than not). I also spent a better part of the day in a company of Jews today. Amazingly, all survived and no stabbing or other violence took place. I guess I was able to suppress the urge! To remain polite though, I will only say that you can keep on keeping on with your nonsense.

I will also refer back to the last paragraph in my previous post since you mention teaching again.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Sufficiently polite? Is it the Jew stabbing part?

Just to throw it at you, to show you how little clue you actually have with your nonsensical assumptions that you accuse others of, my kids are part Jewish, candles are lit in our house on Hanukah (more often than not). I also spent a better part of the day in a company of Jews today. Amazingly, all survived and no stabbing or other violence took place. I guess I was able to suppress the urge! To remain polite though, I will only say that you can keep on keeping on with your nonsense.

I will also refer back to the last paragraph in my previous post since you mention teaching again.
Doesn't stop you from posting and stubbornly defending unsubstantiated claims originating with Hamas or other orgs with a clear counter-factual and antisemitic agenda.

I don't care much about antisemitism. I'm not Jewish. But I know antisemitic orgs try to muddy any discussion of Israel-Palestine so that facts would be harder to find. It's sad that you cannot dig deeper past the facade.
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Palestinian anti-Hamas militiamen roaming overtly armed, marked, and in formation. Above we hear Israeli drones.

They call themselves "People's Army - North".
They and Hamas both claim to have captured each other's members around the Jordanian hospital in Tal al Hawa in the last few days.
I remind that this coincides with the time and area of IDF operations.


This isn't new but I am really impressed at Israel's ability to set up a network of Palestinian proxies in Gaza.
Around mid 2024 the idea of setting up zones of influence via Gaza's clans was publicly debated and at least in its early stages it struggled.
After a while one group managed to stand on its feet and support the IDF and contractors to secure GHF aid sites. Now we have them spread far and wide.
It is possible their early failures were an orchestrated action to downplay their role, and if so then I fell for it.



I admit I do not know how this will combine with the proposed deal. Gaza is supposed to be disarmed and demilitarized. But a police force will obviously remain. Trump's outlined earlier plan specifies a certain allocation of pistols and long rifles for Gazan internal security forces.
I guess that should be enough in terms of kinetic capacity to prevent Hamas and others from militarizing. But what happens to these clans? They'll probably demilitarize but it is possible we'll see a brief power struggle before that.

I assume a deal will at least initially look like in Lebanon. Israel resuming assassinations and limited strikes, Hamas accept their fate.
This leads me to believe that Hamas has little incentives to accept such deal, or a high risk of seniors pushing to accept and mid level command refusing.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Hamas PR is prepping for refusal.

IDF is now completing the re-occupation of the Netzarim corridor to dissect the Gaza strip and isolate Gaza City.
>800k people have left Gaza City. Over the next few days more civilians will be allowed to leave, and then the operation will begin and last about 2-3 months. The Al Rashid road is now a one-way street. IDF deployment will include checkpoints to filter the movement.
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
The Gaza City campaign has halted and the IDF switched to a defensive posture. Israel anticipates the release of all hostages soon.

There is a lot of speculation about how it'll go forward. Many ways indeed it could unfold. And even though there is a sort of ceasefire right now, I remind that the majority of fighting by that point was already between Palestinians, and there is no sign of that stopping. Yesterday Palestinian media reported dozens of dead in crossfire between Hamas and local clans.



 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
The situation as it currently is in Gaza and Lebanon, where ceasefires are fragile.
In Lebanon there are still verbal threats but things are going well so far. 613 strikes in 11 months, almost twice per day. A lot of skilled manpower reduced in that time. Beqaa strikes are usually against infrastructure.




In Gaza, the situation on the ground is stabilizing around the yellow line. All living hostages returned and a few dead hostages remain in Gaza.
4 main Israeli-backed militias remain and are strategically located in Rafah, Khan Younis, Shejaiya, and Beit Hanoun.

1761557193299.png
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
2 of the 5 shown water reservoirs feeding Tehran have completely dried up. Another 3 in critical condition, possibly already with increased salinity.

If Tehran does not see intense rain very soon, Tehran may have to be abandoned at least temporarily.

It's not a coincidence that Iran also wants to relocate its capital to the south by the gulf. Water security is more achievable with desalination added in the mix.

I do wonder what happens to the abandoned north if it happens. Tehran is Iran's most populated city. It feeds Iran's industry and military capabilities. This makes it even more vulnerable to all sorts of threats. I can't imagine it will be entirely abandoned. Strategically valuable assets and persons will remain. But Iran does not seem to be making real efforts to fix the water crisis. Iran obviously has plentiful local resources. The drying up is a man-made problem resulting from decades of bad policies and neglect.

If it happens and lasts, Iran would de facto shrink significantly. Its northern territories ripe for the taking by the myriad of semi local militias and immigrants.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Israel's State Attorney office requested the permanent confiscation of 50 vessels suspected of being in indirect Hamas ownership, allegedly used by civilians in the "Sumud flotilla".
The civilian participants were deported and not confiscated, except for one who assaulted a police officer.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
It's interesting to see this post by Laura Loomer. She represents a MAGA voice, which now makes it a bipartisan opinion. But also, this opinion has initially grown in Israel. First by extremist voices, but then also by mainstream ones. This idea does have merits, and I actually had been leaning toward supporting it for over a decade.

Full text:
After spending this last week in Israel and along the Syrian border, I’ve reached a firm conclusion: Israel must end its dependence on U.S. aid and the US must end all aid to Israel.
I truly hope by the end of the Trump administration and by the beginning of a new administration in 2028 that we see zero aid flowing to Israel.
US taxpayers currently send $3.8 billion annually to Israel, and in return we get roughly $48 billion back through defense contracts, pharmaceuticals and technology. The math is clear, but the military aid itself serves as golden handcuffs on Israel—and a constant source of agitation for Americans that has manifested into a distraction from domestic policy, even though our investment directly serves the interests of US national security through counter terrorism and shared intelligence in the Middle East.
True America First policy means we stop dictating to a sovereign nation how to run its government and military, and that we stop telling Israel how to respond to Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah. Cut the US aid, and Israel becomes fully sovereign. America First means we don’t tell other countries how to govern or how to neutralize threats. America First means we don’t get to tell Israel not to eradicate HAMAS or not to bomb nuclear facilities. It means we don’t get to tell the Mossad to not kill the Ayatollah when he’s hiding in a bunker. America First means the US no longer gets to dictate to Israel how they manage their nuclear arsenal.
America First means liberation from being a global baby sitter.
Once the aid to Israel ends, the Pentagon’s leash comes off. Israel’s wars become Israel’s wars. We lose the leverage to urge restraint on bombing Iran or eradicating Hamas. We lose the ability to tell Israel to not enter GAZA. We lose the ability to tell Israel not to neutralize Hezbollah.
Yes, we’ll forfeit that $48 billion return on our $3.8 billion investment, but Americans will no longer have a scapegoat to blame for every domestic problem. In the end, it’s a win-win.
I had an incredible week in Israel, and I am eternally grateful for my travels across the Holy Land, including trips to the very edge of the Gaza border and the Syrian border, both of which have been ravaged by Islamic terrorism and war. After meeting with victims of Islamic terrorism, survivors of October 7th who defended their Kibbutz from a HAMAS ambush on October 7th, members of the IDF who are struggling with severe PTSD, parents of children who were murdered in air strikes by Hezbollah in the Golan Heights, members of the Knesset, and family members of the victims of Abu Mohammed Al-Julani’s Islamic violence against religious minorities in Southern Syria, my biggest takeaway from my trip abroad this week is clear: Let’s end all U.S. aid to Israel.

The merits of ending aid:
  1. Disarm radicals against Jews.
  2. Disarm radical gov't against Israel.
  3. Supports the Israeli DIB.
Obviously radicals and antisemites among influencers or government will find other ways, but giving them less ammo is objectively better, while also not really giving up on anything because the existing aid mechanism benefits the US a lot but its positive effect on Israel is debatable at best.

The negative aspect of all this is that American politics are becoming increasingly isolationist.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
It's interesting to see this post by Laura Loomer. She represents a MAGA voice, which now makes it a bipartisan opinion. But also, this opinion has initially grown in Israel. First by extremist voices, but then also by mainstream ones. This idea does have merits, and I actually had been leaning toward supporting it for over a decade.

Full text:



The merits of ending aid:
  1. Disarm radicals against Jews.
  2. Disarm radical gov't against Israel.
  3. Supports the Israeli DIB.
Obviously radicals and antisemites among influencers or government will find other ways, but giving them less ammo is objectively better, while also not really giving up on anything because the existing aid mechanism benefits the US a lot but its positive effect on Israel is debatable at best.

The negative aspect of all this is that American politics are becoming increasingly isolationist.
Agree, more isolationist, but more worrisome, American politics is being coming dysfunctional.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It's interesting to see this post by Laura Loomer. She represents a MAGA voice, which now makes it a bipartisan opinion. But also, this opinion has initially grown in Israel. First by extremist voices, but then also by mainstream ones. This idea does have merits, and I actually had been leaning toward supporting it for over a decade.

Full text:



The merits of ending aid:
  1. Disarm radicals against Jews.
  2. Disarm radical gov't against Israel.
  3. Supports the Israeli DIB.
Obviously radicals and antisemites among influencers or government will find other ways, but giving them less ammo is objectively better, while also not really giving up on anything because the existing aid mechanism benefits the US a lot but its positive effect on Israel is debatable at best.

The negative aspect of all this is that American politics are becoming increasingly isolationist.
But will it mean the US continues to protect Israel from any Security Council sanctions? And what about the supply of US made weapons? This position seems to imply the US will lose it's arms contracts in Israel. But it's not like Israel will buy Russian FABs to drop on Hamas. It seems that untangling Israel from US influence and therefore US ability to pull on the metaphorical leash is more complex then simply cutting aid.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
1. But will it mean the US continues to protect Israel from any Security Council sanctions?
2. And what about the supply of US made weapons?
3. This position seems to imply the US will lose it's arms contracts in Israel.
4. But it's not like Israel will buy Russian FABs to drop on Hamas.
5. It seems that untangling Israel from US influence and therefore US ability to pull on the metaphorical leash is more complex then simply cutting aid.
1. Probably yes, as long as it is mutually beneficial as it so far has been.
2. Probably unaffected. Israel has many reasons to buy American. The aid mechanism is pretty low on the list.
3. Why would it? Except a negligible amount.
4. True.
5. A step in a direction is a step nonetheless.
 
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