The USA has made an absolute fortune selling weapons to Europe despite the budget cuts over the years, unfortunately for them many of thier (former?) European allies are now looking to local sources for armements. So I feel that Trump may have forced a much needed rearmement but much less of that money will be spent on US systems now that he and his administration have alienated so many Europeans.
Middle East Defence & Security
- Thread starter MaenZ
- Start date
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Trump pushed for European buildup and rearmament. That is inseparable from buildup of local industry. I do not think the US miscalculated. I think they got exactly what they were aiming for.
American, South Korean, Israeli industries have prepared and are increasing output to Europe. But they cannot realistically rearm a whole continent together within the desired time frame.
Trump miscalculated not the USA, these are two different entities. I am 100 percent sure that Trump was expecting to profit massively (or should that be bigly?) from European rearmement but his other actions in the area of tariffs and trade barriers, not to mention his (and his political allies) wholesale assault on European democracy and culture and his threats to occupy and control Greenland have damaged those prospects.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Those could have affected things, but I also know Europe has fewer competent leaders than whiny populists.
Tell them to rearm and they act like you insulted their ancestors.
But, you know, it's only their own security they're betting on just to stick it to orange man. Nothing major.
I hear about these leaders in my local news when they speak about sanctions or arms embargos on Israel, some even about invading the nuking Israel.
Then via European channels I hear them talking about how the US is a bigger threat than Russia.
And when I look closer, I see that they're the same leaders in both cases. And I also see that each and every one of them is dealing with some domestic crisis they need a scapegoat for. Whether it's some abysmal approval rating or someone unable to form a government or soaring crime or whatever.
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Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
OSINTers following Palestinian social media say such desperation was not felt since January 2025, when Hamas personnel were observed openly calling on their superiors to accept a ceasefire.
Palestinians on social media say Hamas ran away from Al Shifa hospital and that its presence is not felt around the area.
Palestinians on social media say Hamas ran away from Al Shifa hospital and that its presence is not felt around the area.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
So the UN alleges that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. Israel rejects the allegations, calling the report a fake, compiled by antisemites and Hamas proxies, and is based entirely on Hamas numbers and claims.
Note that the language is very “Trumpanian”. That is the main target audience as Israel had lost most of everyone else. The crowd @Redshift described somewhere above will eventually be most of the few supporters.
Halevi, however, confirmed that the numbers cited are actually correct:
The retired general told a community meeting in southern Israel earlier this week that more than 10% of Gaza’s 2.2 million population had been killed or injured – “more than 200,000 people”.
www.theguardian.com
Previous reporting also suggested that over 80% of deaths are civilians, citing Israeli intelligence reports, if I recall correctly. Halevi suggested that the war is not “gentle”:
“This isn’t a gentle war. We took the gloves off from the first minute. Sadly not earlier,” Halevi said[…]
And
“Not once has anyone restricted me. Not once. Not the military AG [advocate general Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi] who, by the way, hasn’t the authority to restrict me,” he said.
In a quote that was not on the recording but was cited by Ynet, Halevi appeared to suggest that the main importance of Israel’s military lawyers was to convince the outside world of the legality of the IDF’s actions.
“There are legal advisers who say: We will know how to defend this legally in the world, and this is very important for the state of Israel,” he is quoted as saying.
In the meantime, annexation of the West Bank is in full swing:
“We are going to fulfill our promise that there will be no Palestinian state; this place belongs to us,” Netanyahu said during a visit to the Ma’ale Adumim settlement in the West Bank, on the outskirts of Jerusalem, where thousands of new housing units would be added.
“We will safeguard our heritage, our land and our security… We are going to double the city’s population,” he added.
Netanyahu says that the project is about “realizing a vision… something very big is happening here.”
www.timesofisrael.com
I have zero doubt the sentiment is the same towards Gaza. The only question, at this point, in my opinion, what is going to happen to the Palestinians not, basically, slaughtered? A ghetto within a greater state of Israel? That is certainly not sustainable (or workable to begin with).
The craziest part is that Netanyahu says that the country has to prepare to operate in isolation and be “Super-Sparta” (crazy talk, by the way, re Sparta, as well as becoming a self-sufficient country):
Hours before unleashing a ground offensive against Gaza City on Tuesday, Benjamin Netanyahu braced his country for a future of mounting economic isolation, urging it to become a “super Sparta” of the Middle East.
The future the prime minister laid out for Israel, of a more militarised society, a partial autarky – or economically self-sufficient country – with limited trade options and relying increasingly on homemade production, has stirred up a backlash among Israelis who are ever more uneasy at the prospect of following him down the path to a pariah state.
www.theguardian.com
That is a sure candidate for the dumbest idea I have heard from the man. It’s insane that this guy has been in power for so long. Anyway…
An interesting article on the 12-day war (confirms a lot of what I had said previously):
www.timesofisrael.com
An article from Barak Ravid on why the Qatar strike was a failure (it was also very “shortsighted”, in my opinion):
Note that the language is very “Trumpanian”. That is the main target audience as Israel had lost most of everyone else. The crowd @Redshift described somewhere above will eventually be most of the few supporters.
Halevi, however, confirmed that the numbers cited are actually correct:
The retired general told a community meeting in southern Israel earlier this week that more than 10% of Gaza’s 2.2 million population had been killed or injured – “more than 200,000 people”.
‘We took the gloves off’: ex-IDF chief confirms Gaza casualties over 200,000
Retired general Herzi Halevi says ‘not once’ had legal advice constrained Israel’s military decisions in the strip
www.theguardian.com
Previous reporting also suggested that over 80% of deaths are civilians, citing Israeli intelligence reports, if I recall correctly. Halevi suggested that the war is not “gentle”:
“This isn’t a gentle war. We took the gloves off from the first minute. Sadly not earlier,” Halevi said[…]
And
“Not once has anyone restricted me. Not once. Not the military AG [advocate general Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi] who, by the way, hasn’t the authority to restrict me,” he said.
In a quote that was not on the recording but was cited by Ynet, Halevi appeared to suggest that the main importance of Israel’s military lawyers was to convince the outside world of the legality of the IDF’s actions.
“There are legal advisers who say: We will know how to defend this legally in the world, and this is very important for the state of Israel,” he is quoted as saying.
In the meantime, annexation of the West Bank is in full swing:
“We are going to fulfill our promise that there will be no Palestinian state; this place belongs to us,” Netanyahu said during a visit to the Ma’ale Adumim settlement in the West Bank, on the outskirts of Jerusalem, where thousands of new housing units would be added.
“We will safeguard our heritage, our land and our security… We are going to double the city’s population,” he added.
Netanyahu says that the project is about “realizing a vision… something very big is happening here.”
‘There will be no Palestinian state’: Netanyahu signs plan for E1 settlement expansion
PM declares 'this place belongs to us' during signing ceremony in Ma'ale Adumim, as Smotrich vows that the next step is annexation of the West Bank
www.timesofisrael.com
I have zero doubt the sentiment is the same towards Gaza. The only question, at this point, in my opinion, what is going to happen to the Palestinians not, basically, slaughtered? A ghetto within a greater state of Israel? That is certainly not sustainable (or workable to begin with).
The craziest part is that Netanyahu says that the country has to prepare to operate in isolation and be “Super-Sparta” (crazy talk, by the way, re Sparta, as well as becoming a self-sufficient country):
Hours before unleashing a ground offensive against Gaza City on Tuesday, Benjamin Netanyahu braced his country for a future of mounting economic isolation, urging it to become a “super Sparta” of the Middle East.
The future the prime minister laid out for Israel, of a more militarised society, a partial autarky – or economically self-sufficient country – with limited trade options and relying increasingly on homemade production, has stirred up a backlash among Israelis who are ever more uneasy at the prospect of following him down the path to a pariah state.
Netanyahu’s ‘super-Sparta’ vision braces Israel for isolated economic future
Israeli PM’s outline of partial autarky and more militarised society stirs up backlash and concern over pariah status
www.theguardian.com
That is a sure candidate for the dumbest idea I have heard from the man. It’s insane that this guy has been in power for so long. Anyway…
An interesting article on the 12-day war (confirms a lot of what I had said previously):
‘A historic moment’: Leaked transcripts reveal secret deliberations at start of Iran war
Quotes reveal existential fears that pushed Israel to strike, plans to kill Khamenei, efforts to get Trump to bomb fortified nuclear site and disputes over targeting oil refineries
www.timesofisrael.com
An article from Barak Ravid on why the Qatar strike was a failure (it was also very “shortsighted”, in my opinion):
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
The target audience is everyone, not just Trumpists. Since the message is factual, I see no reason for it to be restricted to just one demographic, as ideally all people should strive to be factual. Except of course people who intentionally choose counter-facts.
Do note that while the report's headline and the press releases allege genocide, the report content does not. At no point in the report do they try to judge Israel's conduct against the accepted criteria for genocide.
What significance does it have?
You cannot say that Israeli intelligence reports suggest over 80% of deaths are civilians. That is an oxymoron. I am familiar with the cited databases. At no point was any such allegation made, nor does any report even remotely suggest that.
This is very clearly taken out of context. That is why I usually recommend people to avoid reading written reports and seek tangible evidence. To foreigners this is an odd statement, but any Israeli will know that when the Israeli CoGS mentions the MAG, it's a political message supporting the MAG's work.
Since December 2022, Netanyahu and his minions have attacked the judicial branch, the (civilian) Attorney General, and anyone else that's useful as a scapegoat for their own failures. Over the course of the war nearly a year later, the judicial was politically attacked for obstruction but this time of military policy. Obviously nonsense, the judicial supports, not hinders military policy, and we have solid evidence of that.
During one high profile incident, there were allegations of sexual assault in a temporary Sde Teiman detention camp for Nukhbas.
Per procedure, the MAG (Yifat Tomer Yerushalmi which Haveli cited) and investigators went in and confirmed the allegations. Immediately Netanyahu's minions came and organized a protest at the base gates. They blamed the MAG of treason and for "supporting terrorists". Now she was also their scapegoat.
Halevi saying the MAG did not restrict him, has basically addressed the most common talking point of hardcore right wingers - That the judicial in all forms, is restricting the government and army from enacting policy.
Then you do not understand the meaning of annexing J&S and Gaza.
There's a reason Israel hasn't done that. And it's a logistical one. Israel won't move the Palestinians, and it won't annex territory on which other people reside. It is a hard pill to swallow for Israel because it requires a lot of work and there are more urgent things on the table. It will only be easier to do if the threat materializes and western nations choose to recognize another Palestinian state with Hamas at the helm. Otherwise it remains a hypothetical retaliation at best.
But even if it materializes, we're only talking about, at best, small chunks of land and primarily on the scarcely populated Jordan Valley. There are no practical plans for the annexation of the full J&S.
The most realistic outcome of this is simply within the Oslo Accords parameters, redesignate area B as area C, and that's it.
Regarding Gaza, even the most ambitious plans refer to only north of the Habesor stream / Wadi Gaza.
So what happens to Palestinians is - nothing. For many decades Israel has been accused of genocide. But, you know, it didn't happen, so fear mongering is something I ignore. When things happen, then they happen.
Self-sufficient arms industry, not self sufficient country. Important distinction. You heard in the speech that he was referring exclusively to an arms industry.
Defense industrial self sufficiency is something we generally encourage.
Why do YOU think it was a failure?
Ananda
The Bunker Group
https://share.google/RuK6cwiNkKnBqmAY8
Saudi Arabia signs mutual defence pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan
Thus this means Pakistan Nuke can be use by Saudi if being attack and then decide to retaliate toward regional player that has nuke arsenal ? Well don't blame Saudi being prepared after Qatar debacle.
Saudi Arabia signs mutual defence pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan
Thus this means Pakistan Nuke can be use by Saudi if being attack and then decide to retaliate toward regional player that has nuke arsenal ? Well don't blame Saudi being prepared after Qatar debacle.
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Will Pakistan really use or allow the use of its nuclear weapons on Israel in response to any form of conventional attack on Saudi by Israel?
That sounds like a definite end of the world scenario to me.
You really do know everything about everyone, and so I must concede that, therefore, you must be correct in everything that you say.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Mutual defense is the most disrespected type of treaty I can think of.
I don't find it even remotely realistic that Pakistan or any nuclear armed nation, allow another nation to decide on activating their nuclear weapons.
The biggest effect from this is IMO a signal to India that Saudi Arabia is playing hard ball with the IMEC and Abraham Accords and wants more out of it.