The USA has made an absolute fortune selling weapons to Europe despite the budget cuts over the years, unfortunately for them many of thier (former?) European allies are now looking to local sources for armements. So I feel that Trump may have forced a much needed rearmement but much less of that money will be spent on US systems now that he and his administration have alienated so many Europeans.
Middle East Defence & Security
- Thread starter MaenZ
- Start date
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Trump pushed for European buildup and rearmament. That is inseparable from buildup of local industry. I do not think the US miscalculated. I think they got exactly what they were aiming for.
American, South Korean, Israeli industries have prepared and are increasing output to Europe. But they cannot realistically rearm a whole continent together within the desired time frame.
Trump miscalculated not the USA, these are two different entities. I am 100 percent sure that Trump was expecting to profit massively (or should that be bigly?) from European rearmement but his other actions in the area of tariffs and trade barriers, not to mention his (and his political allies) wholesale assault on European democracy and culture and his threats to occupy and control Greenland have damaged those prospects.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Those could have affected things, but I also know Europe has fewer competent leaders than whiny populists.
Tell them to rearm and they act like you insulted their ancestors.
But, you know, it's only their own security they're betting on just to stick it to orange man. Nothing major.
I hear about these leaders in my local news when they speak about sanctions or arms embargos on Israel, some even about invading the nuking Israel.
Then via European channels I hear them talking about how the US is a bigger threat than Russia.
And when I look closer, I see that they're the same leaders in both cases. And I also see that each and every one of them is dealing with some domestic crisis they need a scapegoat for. Whether it's some abysmal approval rating or someone unable to form a government or soaring crime or whatever.
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Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
OSINTers following Palestinian social media say such desperation was not felt since January 2025, when Hamas personnel were observed openly calling on their superiors to accept a ceasefire.
Palestinians on social media say Hamas ran away from Al Shifa hospital and that its presence is not felt around the area.
Palestinians on social media say Hamas ran away from Al Shifa hospital and that its presence is not felt around the area.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
So the UN alleges that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. Israel rejects the allegations, calling the report a fake, compiled by antisemites and Hamas proxies, and is based entirely on Hamas numbers and claims.
Note that the language is very “Trumpanian”. That is the main target audience as Israel had lost most of everyone else. The crowd @Redshift described somewhere above will eventually be most of the few supporters.
Halevi, however, confirmed that the numbers cited are actually correct:
The retired general told a community meeting in southern Israel earlier this week that more than 10% of Gaza’s 2.2 million population had been killed or injured – “more than 200,000 people”.
www.theguardian.com
Previous reporting also suggested that over 80% of deaths are civilians, citing Israeli intelligence reports, if I recall correctly. Halevi suggested that the war is not “gentle”:
“This isn’t a gentle war. We took the gloves off from the first minute. Sadly not earlier,” Halevi said[…]
And
“Not once has anyone restricted me. Not once. Not the military AG [advocate general Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi] who, by the way, hasn’t the authority to restrict me,” he said.
In a quote that was not on the recording but was cited by Ynet, Halevi appeared to suggest that the main importance of Israel’s military lawyers was to convince the outside world of the legality of the IDF’s actions.
“There are legal advisers who say: We will know how to defend this legally in the world, and this is very important for the state of Israel,” he is quoted as saying.
In the meantime, annexation of the West Bank is in full swing:
“We are going to fulfill our promise that there will be no Palestinian state; this place belongs to us,” Netanyahu said during a visit to the Ma’ale Adumim settlement in the West Bank, on the outskirts of Jerusalem, where thousands of new housing units would be added.
“We will safeguard our heritage, our land and our security… We are going to double the city’s population,” he added.
Netanyahu says that the project is about “realizing a vision… something very big is happening here.”
www.timesofisrael.com
I have zero doubt the sentiment is the same towards Gaza. The only question, at this point, in my opinion, what is going to happen to the Palestinians not, basically, slaughtered? A ghetto within a greater state of Israel? That is certainly not sustainable (or workable to begin with).
The craziest part is that Netanyahu says that the country has to prepare to operate in isolation and be “Super-Sparta” (crazy talk, by the way, re Sparta, as well as becoming a self-sufficient country):
Hours before unleashing a ground offensive against Gaza City on Tuesday, Benjamin Netanyahu braced his country for a future of mounting economic isolation, urging it to become a “super Sparta” of the Middle East.
The future the prime minister laid out for Israel, of a more militarised society, a partial autarky – or economically self-sufficient country – with limited trade options and relying increasingly on homemade production, has stirred up a backlash among Israelis who are ever more uneasy at the prospect of following him down the path to a pariah state.
www.theguardian.com
That is a sure candidate for the dumbest idea I have heard from the man. It’s insane that this guy has been in power for so long. Anyway…
An interesting article on the 12-day war (confirms a lot of what I had said previously):
www.timesofisrael.com
An article from Barak Ravid on why the Qatar strike was a failure (it was also very “shortsighted”, in my opinion):
Note that the language is very “Trumpanian”. That is the main target audience as Israel had lost most of everyone else. The crowd @Redshift described somewhere above will eventually be most of the few supporters.
Halevi, however, confirmed that the numbers cited are actually correct:
The retired general told a community meeting in southern Israel earlier this week that more than 10% of Gaza’s 2.2 million population had been killed or injured – “more than 200,000 people”.
‘We took the gloves off’: ex-IDF chief confirms Gaza casualties over 200,000
Retired general Herzi Halevi says ‘not once’ had legal advice constrained Israel’s military decisions in the strip
www.theguardian.com
Previous reporting also suggested that over 80% of deaths are civilians, citing Israeli intelligence reports, if I recall correctly. Halevi suggested that the war is not “gentle”:
“This isn’t a gentle war. We took the gloves off from the first minute. Sadly not earlier,” Halevi said[…]
And
“Not once has anyone restricted me. Not once. Not the military AG [advocate general Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi] who, by the way, hasn’t the authority to restrict me,” he said.
In a quote that was not on the recording but was cited by Ynet, Halevi appeared to suggest that the main importance of Israel’s military lawyers was to convince the outside world of the legality of the IDF’s actions.
“There are legal advisers who say: We will know how to defend this legally in the world, and this is very important for the state of Israel,” he is quoted as saying.
In the meantime, annexation of the West Bank is in full swing:
“We are going to fulfill our promise that there will be no Palestinian state; this place belongs to us,” Netanyahu said during a visit to the Ma’ale Adumim settlement in the West Bank, on the outskirts of Jerusalem, where thousands of new housing units would be added.
“We will safeguard our heritage, our land and our security… We are going to double the city’s population,” he added.
Netanyahu says that the project is about “realizing a vision… something very big is happening here.”
‘There will be no Palestinian state’: Netanyahu signs plan for E1 settlement expansion
PM declares 'this place belongs to us' during signing ceremony in Ma'ale Adumim, as Smotrich vows that the next step is annexation of the West Bank
www.timesofisrael.com
I have zero doubt the sentiment is the same towards Gaza. The only question, at this point, in my opinion, what is going to happen to the Palestinians not, basically, slaughtered? A ghetto within a greater state of Israel? That is certainly not sustainable (or workable to begin with).
The craziest part is that Netanyahu says that the country has to prepare to operate in isolation and be “Super-Sparta” (crazy talk, by the way, re Sparta, as well as becoming a self-sufficient country):
Hours before unleashing a ground offensive against Gaza City on Tuesday, Benjamin Netanyahu braced his country for a future of mounting economic isolation, urging it to become a “super Sparta” of the Middle East.
The future the prime minister laid out for Israel, of a more militarised society, a partial autarky – or economically self-sufficient country – with limited trade options and relying increasingly on homemade production, has stirred up a backlash among Israelis who are ever more uneasy at the prospect of following him down the path to a pariah state.
Netanyahu’s ‘super-Sparta’ vision braces Israel for isolated economic future
Israeli PM’s outline of partial autarky and more militarised society stirs up backlash and concern over pariah status
www.theguardian.com
That is a sure candidate for the dumbest idea I have heard from the man. It’s insane that this guy has been in power for so long. Anyway…
An interesting article on the 12-day war (confirms a lot of what I had said previously):
‘A historic moment’: Leaked transcripts reveal secret deliberations at start of Iran war
Quotes reveal existential fears that pushed Israel to strike, plans to kill Khamenei, efforts to get Trump to bomb fortified nuclear site and disputes over targeting oil refineries
www.timesofisrael.com
An article from Barak Ravid on why the Qatar strike was a failure (it was also very “shortsighted”, in my opinion):
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
The target audience is everyone, not just Trumpists. Since the message is factual, I see no reason for it to be restricted to just one demographic, as ideally all people should strive to be factual. Except of course people who intentionally choose counter-facts.
Do note that while the report's headline and the press releases allege genocide, the report content does not. At no point in the report do they try to judge Israel's conduct against the accepted criteria for genocide.
What significance does it have?
You cannot say that Israeli intelligence reports suggest over 80% of deaths are civilians. That is an oxymoron. I am familiar with the cited databases. At no point was any such allegation made, nor does any report even remotely suggest that.
This is very clearly taken out of context. That is why I usually recommend people to avoid reading written reports and seek tangible evidence. To foreigners this is an odd statement, but any Israeli will know that when the Israeli CoGS mentions the MAG, it's a political message supporting the MAG's work.
Since December 2022, Netanyahu and his minions have attacked the judicial branch, the (civilian) Attorney General, and anyone else that's useful as a scapegoat for their own failures. Over the course of the war nearly a year later, the judicial was politically attacked for obstruction but this time of military policy. Obviously nonsense, the judicial supports, not hinders military policy, and we have solid evidence of that.
During one high profile incident, there were allegations of sexual assault in a temporary Sde Teiman detention camp for Nukhbas.
Per procedure, the MAG (Yifat Tomer Yerushalmi which Haveli cited) and investigators went in and confirmed the allegations. Immediately Netanyahu's minions came and organized a protest at the base gates. They blamed the MAG of treason and for "supporting terrorists". Now she was also their scapegoat.
Halevi saying the MAG did not restrict him, has basically addressed the most common talking point of hardcore right wingers - That the judicial in all forms, is restricting the government and army from enacting policy.
Then you do not understand the meaning of annexing J&S and Gaza.
There's a reason Israel hasn't done that. And it's a logistical one. Israel won't move the Palestinians, and it won't annex territory on which other people reside. It is a hard pill to swallow for Israel because it requires a lot of work and there are more urgent things on the table. It will only be easier to do if the threat materializes and western nations choose to recognize another Palestinian state with Hamas at the helm. Otherwise it remains a hypothetical retaliation at best.
But even if it materializes, we're only talking about, at best, small chunks of land and primarily on the scarcely populated Jordan Valley. There are no practical plans for the annexation of the full J&S.
The most realistic outcome of this is simply within the Oslo Accords parameters, redesignate area B as area C, and that's it.
Regarding Gaza, even the most ambitious plans refer to only north of the Habesor stream / Wadi Gaza.
So what happens to Palestinians is - nothing. For many decades Israel has been accused of genocide. But, you know, it didn't happen, so fear mongering is something I ignore. When things happen, then they happen.
Self-sufficient arms industry, not self sufficient country. Important distinction. You heard in the speech that he was referring exclusively to an arms industry.
Defense industrial self sufficiency is something we generally encourage.
Why do YOU think it was a failure?
Ananda
The Bunker Group
https://share.google/RuK6cwiNkKnBqmAY8
Saudi Arabia signs mutual defence pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan
Thus this means Pakistan Nuke can be use by Saudi if being attack and then decide to retaliate toward regional player that has nuke arsenal ? Well don't blame Saudi being prepared after Qatar debacle.
Saudi Arabia signs mutual defence pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan
Thus this means Pakistan Nuke can be use by Saudi if being attack and then decide to retaliate toward regional player that has nuke arsenal ? Well don't blame Saudi being prepared after Qatar debacle.
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Will Pakistan really use or allow the use of its nuclear weapons on Israel in response to any form of conventional attack on Saudi by Israel?
That sounds like a definite end of the world scenario to me.
You really do know everything about everyone, and so I must concede that, therefore, you must be correct in everything that you say.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Mutual defense is the most disrespected type of treaty I can think of.
I don't find it even remotely realistic that Pakistan or any nuclear armed nation, allow another nation to decide on activating their nuclear weapons.
The biggest effect from this is IMO a signal to India that Saudi Arabia is playing hard ball with the IMEC and Abraham Accords and wants more out of it.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
When the language chosen is “fake reports”, “antisemites”, “fake numbers”, etc, it is exactly “trumpian” approach for a particular target audience. So, while anyone can “listen”, only particular audience is reached. I believe this is clear as day, especially in today’s world, where populism and sensationalism is more than prevalent.
Do note that I read most of the report (not all). It describes exactly what the “headline” says. Again, this is “trumpian” approach: declare that something is false, even attach a link to the source of the “false information” in some cases, absolutely correctly counting on the fact hardly anyone will look inside, and declare victory with the target audience. This is exactly how most of the right-wing media space operates. Some on the left do the same, but some of those do it “smarter”.
You general implied very strongly that the declared “counter-facts” and fake news may actually be the facts? Not sure where the confusion is.
Are you saying that no news report suggested that? Or the intel reports? I can believe the latter, without an argument. As for the news, it was all over the place. If I recall correctly, this is the original source for the claim:
Revealed: Israeli military’s own data indicates civilian death rate of 83% in Gaza war
Figures from classified IDF database listed 8,900 named fighters as dead or probably dead in May, as overall death toll reached 53,000
www.theguardian.com
The only official Israeli response I saw was that the data is incorrect and does not correspond to the military database or something of that nature (which is a fair response, unlike the “fake antisemite news” rubbish).
Thanks for the context. But isn’t what I quoted the entire point?
Again with not understanding, misunderstanding, etc…
Of course it is logical. They can’t move them anywhere but within the Strip (or the West Bank). Which is what they are doing within the Strip: moving millions of people north, than south, then back north or to the middle, etc. Fair? Hardly. Can they do anything else? Probably not. Are they going to “win” and annihilate hamas doing that? Of course not, this is nonsense.
It has been doing just that in the West Bank for years, without using the word “annexation”.
No one will recognize it with hamas at the helm, because that is not what they are recognizing - that is, they are not recognizing hamas, but the state of Palestine. And there is very little doubt that western nations (absolute majority of them, if not all with very few exceptions that can be counted on one hand or half of it) will recognize that state in time. This is a writing on the wall (near future stuff) provided the war continues and Israel continues conducting it the way it did and does. It was extremely obvious from the beginning. Not sure if I wrote here my view of what was to happen about mid- to end-October almost two years ago (I think I did to some extent).
So what is the grand vision here? Two states? One state? A ghetto/occupation? What is the grand vision if it is the latter? How do you actually “win” and settle?
Even if that were the case, my argument would still be the same. There is simply no way Israel could sustain what it has been doing for the past two years on its own even for a small fraction of that time. I mean there is no such possibility exists. This is simply nonsense.
At the same time, while there is a lot of talk about trade embargo with Israel coming from many countries, what he meant was probably actual isolation. In either case, complete trade embargo or just the end of weapon deliveries, the result would be devastating for Israel. Like I said in one of my other recent post regarding the cost: it is very far from a given that Israel will ever recover from this. Time will tell.
Haven’t we been through that already?
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
I am saying a lot of the reporting misinterpreted the facts, relying on the readers not going beyond the article, or not investigating the source material.
Assuming the database they quoted is real, it only says that 17% of the casualties reported in Hamas's database, align with names the IDF is familiar with.
This first and foremost tells us that the IDF is capable of ID'ing some of the enemy casualties. This is not a trivial capability, and points to a quality intelligence penetration.
You're holding a perimeter and shots are coming your way from a nearby building. A minute later a tank places a shell through that window.
Do you really expect to be able to ID him on the field?
If you understand statistics, why did you not understand this part? Why did you falsely claim it's the proportion of combatants?
Then stop demonstrating it, and on things you want to understand more about you can just ask.
This is the hubris in the perception of counter-terrorism. You cannot hope to eliminate terrorism via just military action. And that is evidently not what the IDF is doing.
I listened to a podcast with Ron Dermer once and something he said resonated with me:
ISIS still exist, you cannot really eliminate them. But at least they don't have an islamic state, with large territory and tens of millions of people, dedicated entirely to launching terror attacks across the globe.
The IDF's operations do not focus on hunting down every last Hamasy. They focus on terror infrastructure. The tunnels, boobytraps, weapons. It creates buffer zones between Israeli population centers and Palestinian ones, that previously were walking distance apart and which enabled Oct 7th.
There's no displacement in J&S.
Hamas is the de facto government in Gaza. How can you recognize a state without a government?
Statehood is shoved down the Palestinian people's throats by non-Palestinians throughout their entire history, but decades later there aren't even the basic foundations for statehood.
Post-recognition what is the name of the state? Is it just Palestine? If so, is it the same government as in J&S? If not, what becomes the name of the Palestinian state in J&S? And does it even become a state? I mean, which territory are they recognizing? J&S or Gaza?
All these questions show that no thought was given to the process.
The last bit is where most people deeply misunderstand Israel and Israeli society. The goal is not to settle. If it was, Israel would take a radically different approach.
There is no single grand vision that has been announced and confirmed to be the definitive one, but all ideas pretty much converge.
The north red area is Gaza City. It's being evacuated south, and the IDF will do extensive clearing and demolition work there.
The center red area is the central camps. And the south red area is Mawasi humanitarian zone.
Blue is a cleared area with local non-Hamas Palestinian governance like Al Shabab's gangs.
The idea is to create a downward stream, where Palestinians eventually converge in areas where other groups have better control than Hamas, thus naturally filtering it out to the point of irrelevance.
From these factions, international parties could select and build an interim government that will adhere to their interests.
So one point of convergence is Palestinian self-rule. None wants to rule them but themselves.
Another point is the solution to the terrorism problem. The only accepted solution I'm aware of, and one that's desired for J&S as well, is a de-radicalization program through non-hostile education. They do that, we give them some carrot.
As for what happens territorially and where people live, that's up for debate later on and probably not what Israel and allies are thinking about right now. And rightfully, it can diverge into many different solutions. But it shows the disconnect. People think this is Israel's core issue, but it's not what concerns it right now.
Because Israel's industry was focused on maintaining baseline production capabilities for low quantities, that could be flexed up if needed. Now we're talking about flexing up.
If Israel can start manufacturing thousands of JDAM-like weapons a year, it'd be much more difficult to pressure it. And that is exactly the point.
Biden loved pressuring Israel out of responding by holding up munitions shipments.
Once the war ends, everyone will rush to restore things to how they were. But Israel has not come under a trade embargo, nor is it expected to. It simply makes no sense.
And I have reason to believe the Gaza City campaign is the last intense part of the war, so effectively its end.
How long will it take? I'm guessing 3-6 months. Then we go more or less into Lebanon-mode there.
Not that I can remember. But if we have, the sole argument for "failure" is that the Hamas leadership in Doha possibly survived, which IMO is a ludicrous argument. How could it point to failure?