Japan, Koreas, China and Taiwan regional issues

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
I know an 81 year old who has a vivid memory of the war.
Sure, although I did say 80. I accept at some point a child would have been old enough to remember the war.

It was just a rough cut-off point to demonstrate that the vast majority of the population won't have strong personal feelings of the war other than what they've been told. That's a big change from 20 or even 10 years ago, when a much larger group of people had to live through it.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yep, I posted about it in the China Geopolitical & Geostrategic thread last week. What now makes it more interesting is that it's the Deputy PM and Finance Minister Taro Aso making the comments. Last week it was the Minister of Defence Yasuhide Nakayama, so IMHO this has the appearance of a new Japanese policy being floated and one that will be contentious both at home and in three particular nations; the PRC, North Korea, and with the current South Korean administration. Undoubtedly Vlad the Red will also put his roubles worth and oar into it as well, decrying Japanese militaristic adventurism.
1. I suspect that PM Yoshihide Suga will not survive long in his post before domestic imperatives push forward a new LDP leader. But no matter what happens at a domestic politics level, Japan has woken up to a new dawn at the G7, where everyone (NATO included) wants to pivot to the East — with the French as first movers amongst the Europeans. In May 2021, Japan held a joint military drill with US and French troops in the country's southwest, the defence minister said, as China's actions in regional waters raise concern. The exercise, running from May 11 to 17, is the first large-scale exercise in Japan involving ground troops from all three countries, the JGSDF said in a statement.

2. As the most capable navy in the East, the JMSDF will be swamped with offers from European navies to collaborate. As Kurt Campbell recently explained that a “new cold war” was a not a suitable way to frame the U.S.-China relationship, even though it has adversarial aspects. “There will be periods of uncertainty — perhaps even periods of occasional raised tensions,” he said.

3. IMHO, what matters to China is the actual performance of Japan in concert with the US, at actually pushing-back firmly but not in a manner that shows over reaction to Chinese attempts to advance their interests [within the 1st island chain].

(a) Campbell stressed that the Biden Administration stands by the “One China Policy” and does not recognize Taiwan as an independent country — but he explained that the island should not be ignored by the international community or shut out of multilateral collaboration where it can make contributions. “We fully recognize and understand the sensitivities here,” he said.​
(b) The conversation also covered trade policy, where the U.S. is “quietly exploring” trade initiatives in Asia, and China’s bullying approach to Australia. In this respect, the RAAF and RAN are will placed to collaborate with their American and Japanese counter-parts at intelligence sharing given the high levels of interoperability of naval and air forces. The RAAF has executed part of its modernisation strategy to remain relevant in a manner that gives me high confidence of their increasing relevance provided their strategic community consider adding to RAAF’s fighter numbers by buying a 4th squadron of F-35As.​
(c) My concern continues to be RAN submarine and ship building plans that are being delayed due to various reasons. Given the presence of a performance driven culture, those who perform are on the inside track, those that don’t are wondering what comes next as Japan unfurls it’s military strategy with performing allies to cope with China’s rise.​

4. What matters, in the period from 2021 to 2031, for the JSDF is execution (including the JMSDF’s superb ship building plans that see new models rollout like clockwork); and in this respect the USAF, RAAF, and ROKAF, as allies with tertiary air forces, are executing their respective buy plans for new weapons that warms my heart — but the ship building plans of these 3 navies are a rocky path.

5. To conclude, it is important to keep in mind that the rivalry or competition against China is fiercest not in the military sphere but in technology, 5G, robotics, life sciences and even areas like AI.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
1. I suspect that PM Yoshihide Suga will not survive long in his post before domestic imperatives push forward a new LDP leader. ...
Something that the Japanese people I speak to say. He's seen as ineffectual. A common opinon is that he only has the job because Abe gave it to him, either as a reward for loyal support or so he could be manipulated from behind the scenes.

[Edit]
My wife despises him.
 
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Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
Something that the Japanese people I speak to say. He's seen as ineffectual. A common opinon is that he only has the job because Abe gave it to him, either as a reward for loyal support or so he could be manipulated from behind the scenes.
It speaks volumes that the LDP have a highly popular politician in the public's eyes (Ishiba), but he's unlikely to become PM because he lacks factional support within the party. It's why Suga is still there, because the factions are still squabbling over who should replace him.

(I mean, I don't know, maybe have a primary involving public and party member votes? Oh sorry, can't do that, factions say no.)
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
Japan's Deputy Prime Minister has sounded this Hawkish warning.

"If a major incident happened [in Taiwan], it would not be strange at all if it touches on a situation threatening survival. If that is the case, Japan and the U.S. must defend Taiwan together."

Japan would not want China on its door step and this is apparently the first time this has been addressed publicly at a government level. I find myself wondering if there hasn't been some US pressure on Japan to make this sort of announcement. Certainly the US would prefer a regional power take up the gauntlet against China and Japan is the obvious choice. At the very least it would seem that Japan may be ready to allow the US to use Japan as a military base for any action it might want to take to prevent China invading Taiwan.

Japan made direct reference to the China's increased aggression against Taiwan in its current defence white paper.

 
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StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
China threatens to use nuclear weapons against Japan if they attempt any intervention over Taiwan. In addition there is a plan to break Japan under 4 states and have them under the control of Russia and China. In a reposted message by local CCP from a Chinese social media site, from a Chinese military commentator.



"When we liberate Taiwan, if Japan dares intervene by force, even if it only sends one soldier, one plane or one ship, we will not only return fire, but also start a full-scale war against Japan," the commentary says.

"First, we will use nuclear bombs. We will continue to use nuclear bombs until Japan offers its second unconditional surrender," it adds.

"We want to strike Japan's capacity to endure war. As soon as Japan recognizes that it cannot afford to pay the price of war, it will not dare send troops to the Taiwan Strait," the narrator continues.


Japans recent commentary seems to have hit a nerve in China. May reveal some of the logic behind building more nuclear launch sites. China would need to strike at multiple countries in any nuclear conflict.
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
The rhetoric coming out of the PRC reminds me of the rhetoric that enamated from Nazi Germany in the mid 1930s with the talk of avenging the wrongs of the Treaty of Versailles and talk of lebensraum.
With a bit of a 'step to the right' the Panda has revealed it's true self as a classical fascist Dragon, As you point out the rhetoric is very similar to the Fascists of last century and if you look through the list of what constituted 20th century fascism, the current version of PRC checks just about all of the boxes. Goodbye proletariat, hello proles.

This article looked at the PRC potential for getting around the first island chain - Xi Jinping is about to make the most important strategic decision of our era | ORF (orfonline.org) It posits the only means are the BRI, The southern route (Strait of Malacca) or The northern route (Strait of Taiwan). For strategic reason alone it believes the route through Taiwan would be the easiest and most likely to be achieved. Throw in Presidents Xi vanity, Chinese ultranationalism regarding 'reunification' and the instant dominance the PRC would achieve in semiconductor production; Taiwan becomes a very tempting prize.
 

weaponwh

Member
China threatens to use nuclear weapons against Japan if they attempt any intervention over Taiwan. In addition there is a plan to break Japan under 4 states and have them under the control of Russia and China. In a reposted message by local CCP from a Chinese social media site, from a Chinese military commentator.



"When we liberate Taiwan, if Japan dares intervene by force, even if it only sends one soldier, one plane or one ship, we will not only return fire, but also start a full-scale war against Japan," the commentary says.

"First, we will use nuclear bombs. We will continue to use nuclear bombs until Japan offers its second unconditional surrender," it adds.

"We want to strike Japan's capacity to endure war. As soon as Japan recognizes that it cannot afford to pay the price of war, it will not dare send troops to the Taiwan Strait," the narrator continues.


Japans recent commentary seems to have hit a nerve in China. May reveal some of the logic behind building more nuclear launch sites. China would need to strike at multiple countries in any nuclear conflict.
Ok who is this official and where is the videos from? cause there is the official stance from china foreign affair, then there is china nationalistic fanboys. if its the latter then its just another right wing extremist that pretty much every country have some. consider china own nuclear policy is minimum deterrent and no first use policy, i dont see them use nuke as 1st strike weapon, consider they only have 300ish warhead. Now if its from official response from foreign affair, then thats serious. otherwise, i would take it as some nationalistic ranting from local guy.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Ok who is this official and where is the videos from? cause there is the official stance from china foreign affair, then there is china nationalistic fanboys. if its the latter then its just another right wing extremist that pretty much every country have some. consider china own nuclear policy is minimum deterrent and no first use policy, i dont see them use nuke as 1st strike weapon, consider they only have 300ish warhead. Now if its from official response from foreign affair, then thats serious. otherwise, i would take it as some nationalistic ranting from local guy.
Are you trying to dissemble and / or pick a fight with a Moderator with a post and tone like that. You know as well as I do that the official stance by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is the polite public face. You also know as well as I do that any published comments within the PRC are not made without CCP approval otherwise they don't get past the censors. Or if they do they are quickly detected, deleted, and the author receives a visit from the police to remind them of their patriotic duty.

Whilst there are nationalistic rants enamating from various sections of PRC society, don't discount them because the nationalistic fires have been stoked by the CCP. Just because the CCP / PRC have said that they will not be the ones who will use nukes first, given their recent history we can no longer accept that statement at face value. It doesn't matter if they have 300 nukes, it only takes one or two as battlefield tactical weapons to create a situation of advantage in punching a hole through enemy lines. BTW the knowledge of PRC nuke stocks are estimates only and in recent times they could well have built many new warheads without outside knowledge. They will have more than enough to destroy the continental USA a few times over.
 

weaponwh

Member
Are you trying to dissemble and / or pick a fight with a Moderator with a post and tone like that. You know as well as I do that the official stance by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is the polite public face. You also know as well as I do that any published comments within the PRC are not made without CCP approval otherwise they don't get past the censors. Or if they do they are quickly detected, deleted, and the author receives a visit from the police to remind them of their patriotic duty.

Whilst there are nationalistic rants enamating from various sections of PRC society, don't discount them because the nationalistic fires have been stoked by the CCP. Just because the CCP / PRC have said that they will not be the ones who will use nukes first, given their recent history we can no longer accept that statement at face value. It doesn't matter if they have 300 nukes, it only takes one or two as battlefield tactical weapons to create a situation of advantage in punching a hole through enemy lines. BTW the knowledge of PRC nuke stocks are estimates only and in recent times they could well have built many new warheads without outside knowledge. They will have more than enough to destroy the continental USA a few times over.
actually i'm not try to pick a fight, but there are individual from china make ridiculously comment and got translate as official CCP words. there are alot nationalistic chinese in china, and ccp is not tracking/censor any what they consider "pro" ccp words, but these are still just individual words. the article indicate hes from Baoji , which is 4th tier city in china, akin to med size city in US. also Municipal Committee, thats like county/city council here in US. basically he is just an local civil worker from med size city. i remember there were another incident back in 90s/2000s, a retire chinese army general said something similar, except sub japan with LA. there are alot ranting from individual, and its important to separate whats individual ranting vs official response. There were official response from china after japan mention taiwan.

raising nationalism is an issue in china but every country have some nationalism, china probably have more ppl consider as nationalistic . as for PRC nuke, i guess i can only take DoD report words on it. I still dont think china will use nuke on Japan, thats just crazy, they are not NK. however china growing conventional and asymmetrical warfare is much more challenge compare to their nuclear stockpile.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
as for PRC nuke, i guess i can only take DoD report words on it. I still dont think china will use nuke on Japan, thats just crazy, they are not NK. however china growing conventional and asymmetrical warfare is much more challenge compare to their nuclear stockpile.
No one has said that China will start a nuclear war. The point is that given how much control Xi has taken of the Party, even local branches sharing videos about nuclear holocaust and destroying countries can't be done without tolerance from provincial and central leadership. The days of random retired generals sounding off without consequence because of intra-party democracy/lack of central control have gone. These days such statements are fed to people - thinking for yourself in Chinese politics can get you fired or worse.

This sort of posturing from the CCP looks bad, as it can be interpreted as any of the following:

1. Instability and factional-infighting to try to make Xi look like he lacks control;
2. Weakness and fear on the Party's behalf that it feels the need to lash out;
3. Irrationally and a mental breakdown of senior leaders that they think a nuclear first-strike is a viable policy.

Maybe the central Party thought it was ill advised but didn't want to do anything to avoid looking weak. However, even if that's the case, they still come off poorly from this episode.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
With massive stocks of plutonium and the technology to build nuclear weapons, Chinese rhetoric is providing huge incentive for a Japanese WMD program.
Why China insists on poking Japan with a stick is beyond me. Japan has theoretically got enough plutonium for around 5000 to 6000 warheads. With that much plutonium the Japanese could throw together several dirty bombs a few days. Give them 6 to 12 months and they could have nuclear weapons.

By way of comparison Japan has a stockpile of around 45 tons of plutonium compared to an estimate of 2 tons for China.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member

"We believe that our commitments to our allies and partners are sacrosanct and always have been. We believe our commitment to Taiwan and to Israel remains as strong as it’s ever been."

Not sure it's usual for the US to mention Israel and Taiwan in the same sentence and in the context of "allies and partners". I know that official policy re Taiwan is strategic ambiguity, but in reality has that been thrown out the window? Just wondering.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
|"Mr Xi said unification should be achieved peacefully, but warned that the Chinese people had a "glorious tradition" of opposing separatism."|

Well, looking to Hongkong, Tibet, Dzungaria and Tarim Basin we all know what that 'glorious tradition' mean.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member

Clearly the budget cannot be raised to 2% of GDP that quickly, but it sets another marker towards above-inflationary increases in the coming years (it's fairly likely the LDP and its allied party will win the election).
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Japan's been keeping some military-related spending out of the defence budget for quite a long time, to squeeze the budget in under the self-imposed 1% ceiling. IIRC there's some defence-related R&D funded by civilian agencies, for example. If they started using the NATO defence expenditure definition there'd be a sudden jump in officially declared spending - but it'd still be a long way below 2%, according to the unofficial estimates (of unknown reliability) I've seen in the past, so even on that definition, 2% would be a big increase, & given what they get from the current spending, I think it could result in rather impressive naval & air forces.
 

AndrewS

New Member
Why China insists on poking Japan with a stick is beyond me. Japan has theoretically got enough plutonium for around 5000 to 6000 warheads. With that much plutonium the Japanese could throw together several dirty bombs a few days. Give them 6 to 12 months and they could have nuclear weapons.

By way of comparison Japan has a stockpile of around 45 tons of plutonium compared to an estimate of 2 tons for China.
China just doesn't take Japan seriously

Every 4 years or so, China has added a Japan-sized economy. And China believes that this will continue
 
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