Japan, Koreas, China and Taiwan regional issues

Chino

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Well for a start it certainly doesn't want to but if things suddenly got worse, it would be left with little choice, especially if its key national interests came under threat.
I wonder where TWN would stand if fighting did break out. It'd be confusing, since both TWN and JPN are US allies. But TWN opposes JPN's claim of Diaoyu (and its own claim of Diaoyu is the same one as the PRC's)...:dbanana

...

The JPN move to "buy" the islands from its "private owners" (it is never mentioned who they are) is a grand master stroke.

Without deploying a single military personnel, this seemingly civil gesture has brought PRC closest to losing its composure and show its hand.

If they manage to provoke the PRC into aggressive military action with a civil gesture, PRC will then be proven to be the aggressor and thus give US the perfect excuse to intervene.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I wonder where TWN would stand if fighting did break out. It'd be confusing, since both TWN and JPN are US allies. But TWN opposes JPN's claim of Diaoyu (and its own claim of Diaoyu is the same one as the PRC's)...:dbanana
I remember a few years ago when Japanese ships blocked Taiwanese protesters from entering the area, the PRC issued a strong warning to Japan. It really is confusing and not surprisingly, the only time Taiwan and the PRC see eye to eye is when both issue 'warnings' or dismiss actions taken by others.

Other disputes that come to mind in the one involving Japan and Russia over the Kuriles and over Dokdo, between Japan and South Korea.

The JPN move to "buy" the islands from its "private owners" (it is never mentioned who they are) is a grand master stroke.
I was reading about it in the local papers. It's some family, can't recall the name, who supposedly have 'owned' the island for generations.

Some interesting videos. The first two I've posted before.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R28-b-nNtR0"]101 East - Standoff at Scarborough Shoal - YouTube[/nomedia]


[one of the speakers in the video above raises a very important point as to how if things were to rapidly get out of hand during a standoff, ship COs won't have the time to radio Beijing or Kuala Lumpur or Manila for instructions and will have to make fast decisions]

Inside Story - The world's most disputed waters - YouTube[/nomedia]

feature=related"]Trouble brewing in the South China Sea - Decoder - YouTube

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsaViQ2C0k8"]Asia's Arms Race - YouTube[/nomedia]


[this video has footage of a Vietnamese ship ramming a Chinese ship]

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cv55GZeme14"]Inside Story - Modernising China's military - YouTube[/nomedia]


China's air defense exercise tests military hardware - YouTube

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjKR7PQ4TfQ"]Inside Story - Is an India-China arms race brewing? - YouTube[/nomedia]
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
With China now increasingly engage with Japan over Senkaku-Diaoyou dispute, how far can China maintain this 'aggressive' claimant posture ? They (China) threaten trade war with Japan, well Japan simply close their business and will resulted with hundred of thousands unemployment in China and can drag further pressure to China job market that now already has pressure due to the slow down of export.

China seems stretching too far this time, with Japan. Perhaps this time the Philippines and Vietnam can try to push their luck further more. Can China keep the aggressive move within two front ? Yes their Southern fleet still can outmatch whatever Philippines and Vietnam Navy can throw out in South China sea. However PLAN need all their Three main Fleet if even want to have chances against JMSDF.
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
I think things have speed up a bit and moved past that. From The Oz:
"Growing citizen reports indicated today that China is preparing for trouble across its 1420km border with North Korea - its partially-estranged ally - by deploying troops. Social media claims were given some added credence by an unusual online story in the Global Times that sourced entirely from South Korea’s Yonhap newsagency its information about 150,000 extra Chinese troops being sent to the border region.
China’s more mainstream media, usually led by state newsagency Xinhua, has not reported on this deployment.
South Korea’s Chosun.com had reported that medical and other units were being deployed by China to handle North Korean refugees and be ready for the after-effects of “unforeseen circumstances” such as a pre-emptive US strike on North Korea."


Also allegedly the Global Times in an editorial in its Chinese language edition said:

“North Korea should not misjudge the situation at this crucial moment, it should not venture to take more risks by thinking a sixth nuclear test will lead to nothing as did the previous five. If it does so, responses from both Beijing and Washington might be unprecedented, even becoming a ‘turning point’"

I think President Xi & President Trump may have cooked up something other than seafood at Mar-a-lago.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
BBC reported that South Korean fighters fired warning shots at Russian military aircraft for intruding into South Korea’s territorial airspace on 23 July 2019, Reuters reported citing the Korean Ministry of National Defense. In this case, warning shots were fired by the Koreans, who used F-15Ks and KF-16s to intercept the Russian A-50 command and control aircraft above the East Sea (near South Korea's easternmost islets of Dokdo, claimed by Japan and South Korea, but occupied by South Korea since 1954). The first warning rounds were fired at AM local time and then the 2nd in a matter of 20 plus minutes. This incident is unusual, as both Japan and Korea routinely intercept Russian or Chinese aircraft that intrude into their respective air defence identification zones, without much incident. In this unusual case, the Russian aircraft entered the Korea Air Defense Identification Zone (KADIZ), along with two Chinese H-6s who also entered the KADIZ, after which they met up with the two Tu-95 Russian aircraft — which is a hallmark of joint planning by the Russians and Chinese forces.

"The South Korean military took tactical action including dropping flares and firing a warning shot," the defense ministry statement said (see CNN report: South Korea fires warning shots at Russian military aircraft). This is a deliberate act by Ivan, as penetrating to a point of requiring the Koreans to fire 10 rounds (as warning shots) to turn away is serious, but to do it twice (for the Koreans to fire another 280 rounds) seems to be a test of Korean resolve (and I suspect, may be used to collect intelligence and on the standby follow forces available at tiered alertness on the Korean side).

Analysts said the mission may have been designed by Russia to draw out South Korean and Japanese aircraft for intelligence gathering purposes. "This mission will have given them a comprehensive map of the (South Korean) national air defense system," said Peter Layton, a former Royal Australian Air Force pilot and analyst at the Griffith Asia Institute. Moscow furiously denied Seoul's account of the encounter, claiming that South Korean military jets had dangerously intercepted two of its bombers during a planned flight over neutral waters. But in a statement, Japan's Ministry of Defense backed up South Korea's claims, saying the A-50 had flown over the islands and that Tokyo had scrambled fighters to intercept.

Edit: In other news, Korea is to launch a new version of a large-deck landing ship. This secession was made during a 12,July 2019 meeting presided over by Gen. Park Han-ki, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “The plan of building the LPH-II ship has been included in a long-term force buildup plan,” said a spokesman for the Joint Chiefs, speaking on condition of anonymity and using an acronym for “landing platform helicopter.” The new LPH is to be refit to displace 30,000 tons, double the capacity of the previous two LPHs — Dokdo and Marado — with 14,500 tons of displacement. The carrier-type vessel is also bigger than the 27,000 tons associated with Japan’s Izumo-class helicopter destroyers.

The Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasian Daily Monitor reports on the implications of growing alliance between Russia and China reflected in their recent joint bomber patrols intercepted off S. Korea and Japan. Graham Allison has noted, “Russian and Chinese General Staffs have candid, detailed discussions about the threat U.S. nuclear modernization and missile defenses pose to each of their strategic deterrents. It therefore stands to reason that these militaries also conduct equally probing discussions concerning conventional warfare and Korean issues” (Cited in Alexander Korolev, “On the Verge of an Alliance: Contemporary China-Russia Military Cooperation,” Asian Security, April 30, 2018).

A number of Russian experts have also confided to this author that Moscow and China have conducted and are conducting talks on strategic stability, “and we know how many nuclear missiles China has” (Author’s interview, July 16, 2019). Be that as it may, it seems clear from the recent joint air patrol—not to mention Russian-Chinese joint exercises during last autumn’s Vostok 2018 drills and all other manifestations of cooperation—that, as Russia and China have agreed, the military relationship is set to further deepen.
 
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Ranger25

Active Member
Staff member
BBC reported that South Korean fighters fired warning shots at Russian military aircraft for intruding into South Korea’s territorial airspace on 23 July 2019, Reuters reported citing the Korean Ministry of National Defense. In this case, warning shots were fired by the Koreans, who used F-15Ks and KF-16s to intercept the Russian A-50 command and control aircraft above the East Sea (near South Korea's easternmost islets of Dokdo, claimed by Japan and South Korea, but occupied by South Korea since 1954). The first warning rounds were fired at AM local time and then the 2nd in a matter of 20 plus minutes. This incident is unusual, as both Japan and Korea routinely intercept Russian or Chinese aircraft that intrude into their respective air defence identification zones, without much incident. In this unusual case, the Russian aircraft entered the Korea Air Defense Identification Zone (KADIZ), along with two Chinese H-6s who also entered the KADIZ, after which they met up with the two Russian Tu-95 aircraft — which is a hallmark of joint planning by the Russians and Chinese forces.

"The South Korean military took tactical action including dropping flares and firing a warning shot," the defense ministry statement said (see CNN report: South Korea fires warning shots at Russian military aircraft). This is a deliberate act by Ivan, as penetrating to a point of requiring the Koreans to fire 10 rounds (as warning shots) to turn away is serious, but to do it twice (for the Koreans to fire another 280 rounds) seems to be a test of Korean resolve (and I suspect, may be used to collect intelligence and on the standby follow forces available at tiered alertness on the Korean side).

Analysts said the mission may have been designed by Russia to draw out South Korean and Japanese aircraft for intelligence gathering purposes. "This mission will have given them a comprehensive map of the (South Korean) national air defense system," said Peter Layton, a former Royal Australian Air Force pilot and analyst at the Griffith Asia Institute. Moscow furiously denied Seoul's account of the encounter, claiming that South Korean military jets had dangerously intercepted two of its bombers during a planned flight over neutral waters. But in a statement, Japan's Ministry of Defense backed up South Korea's claims, saying the A-50 had flown over the islands and that Tokyo had scrambled fighters to intercept.

Edit: In other news, Korea is to launch a new version of a large-deck landing ship. This secession was made during a 12,July 2019 meeting presided over by Gen. Park Han-ki, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “The plan of building the LPH-II ship has been included in a long-term force buildup plan,” said a spokesman for the Joint Chiefs, speaking on condition of anonymity and using an acronym for “landing platform helicopter.” The new LPH is to be refit to displace 30,000 tons, double the capacity of the previous two LPHs — Dokdo and Marado — with 14,500 tons of displacement. The carrier-type vessel is also bigger than the 27,000 tons associated with Japan’s Izumo-class helicopter destroyers.

Sounds like the ROK will be shopping for the F35B soon.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Another missile threat from NK. One really has to wonder when Japan will begin a nuclear bomb program. Between China, NK, and a worsening relationship with SK combined with the antics of the Trump administration, it would be understandable.

North Korea fires ballistic missile built to be launched from submarine into Japan's EEZ | The Japan Times
I don't know if they will. There would be significant domestic debate about it and I am very unsure about the public sentiment on this issue. @MrConservative may be able to enlighten us because he is familiar with Japan & it's culture.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
South Korea compares Japan's 'rising sun' flag to swastika as Olympic row deepens

I put this in here, not to be political, but seems this Japan and ROK row continue to be deepen day by day. This will affect the regional security issues toward Chinese advantage. I see already in some forums where PRC based forumers look at this with considerable satisfaction.

Consider that many of those forumers are Beijing 'ten cents' army, this can be shown how China will try to take advantage on this. With they already have concentrated effort on dividing influence in South East Asia, any opportunities on doing the same in East Asia will only benefit them further.

Talking on public moods in ROK and Japan is also seems support this row. Based on what their media put and what ROK and Japanese public says online seems put them further on opposite sides. Koreans seems continue sees Japan try to regain their superiority, while Japanese seems to say; " enough is enough, no matter what concession that we give to Koreans, it will never be enough".

Sometimes I feel like, without US forces stations on both nation, this can developed to border skirmishes already.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
The 2020 Defense of Japan White Paper

1. There is an excellent Mar 2020 backgrounder called “KEY CHALLENGES: In Japan’s Defense Policy”, that one should read before the white paper to give context to Japanese threat perceptions and actions.

2. The 2020 white paper, titled “Defense of Japan,” was adopted by the Japanese government at a July 14 Cabinet meeting presided over by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

3. China is pushing harder to make territorial claims in the regional seas and even using the coronavirus pandemic to expand its influence and take strategic superiority, posing a greater threat to Japan and the region, Japan's government said. The white paper highlighted the Japanese government's defense priorities was issued less than a day after the Trump administration rejected outright nearly all of Beijing's significant maritime claims in the South China Sea in a statement likely to deepen the U.S.-China rift.

4. The white paper also focused on China’s use of propaganda, including spreading disinformation, about the spread of the coronavirus and takes special note of North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities posing a direct threat to Japan.

5. In past white papers, the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MOD) stated that North Korea “appears to have arrived at the stage of miniaturizing nuclear weapons and developing warheads.” The latest white paper characterizes the threat as much more substantive. As recently as 2018, the white paper stated that “it may be seen as possible that [North Korea] has arrived at the stage of nuclear weapon miniaturization and warhead development.”

6. Mike Yeo reports that the white paper contains a section on the short-takeoff-and-vertical-landing variant of the Lockheed Martin aircraft, noting that with regional countries making “remarkable progress” in air power modernization, the country needed to respond in kind. The whitepaper highlighted the operational flexibility of the F-35B, noting the jet’s ability to operate without the need for long runways, which would enable the Japan Air Self-Defense Force to significantly expand the number of locations from whence the service can conduct air superiority operations.

7. Japan has plans to eventually acquire 42 F-35Bs to operate alongside its planned fleet of 105 conventional-takeoff-and-landing F-35As, making it the top customer of the F-35 outside the US.

8. In addition to the air threat, the threat of Chinese submarine incursions is seen as very real. In Jun 2020, to track a submerged submarine near its waters, the JMSDF scrambled one of its helicopter carriers, two destroyers and several maritime patrol aircraft. Although Japan has not declared the nationality of the submarine, it is widely believed to have been Chinese.

(i) According to a press release (in Japanese) the submarine was detected on June 18 northeast of Amami Oshima, which is one of the islands running between Japan and Taiwan. These islands are known as the first island chain and form a natural barrier between China and the Pacific. The submarine was tracked for several days.​

(ii) Japan is increasing its submarine force from 16 to 22 boats. While Japan’s submarines are considered very advanced, they will still be massively outnumbered by the Chinese Navy. The white paper says that Japan will maintain “reinforced submarine units” to “engage in patrols and defense in the waters around Japan”.​

(iii) Japan has already commissioned the world’s first submarine with Lithium-Ion batteries. The improved technology promises to help their submarines stay underwater for longer periods.​
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Trump Administration is again considering withdrawing some troops from South Korea, if South Korea’s Moon does not pay more for maintaining a 28,500-strong US contingent deterring North Korean aggression.

The potential decision to pull troops from South Korea comes as Washington and Seoul have yet to reach a solid cost-sharing agreement after the last one expired 31 Dec 2019. The deal, known as the Special Measures Agreement (SMA), lapsed amid the Trump administration's demands for South Korea to pay significantly more to base American troops there.

In 2019, the Trump administration attempted to get South Korea to pay about US$1.6 billion to house American troops but later agreed to an increase to US$1 billion with the understanding that the SMA would be negotiated for 2020. But subsequent negotiations earlier this year were not successful, leading to a lapse of the SMA. The two countries reached a temporary deal but Trump has insisted South Korea contribute about US$5 billion a year, or about 400% more than what it paid in the now-expired SMA. Both sides say the Trump Administration's demands have since softened, but a new deal has yet to be reached.

Trump has advocated the need for allies, such as South Korea and Japan, to pay more of the costs associated with hosting U.S. troops. During the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump said he would consider removing troops from the two countries unless they boosted their contributions. Japan must be wondering are they next on Trump’s to-do-list for a shake down. Under the Japan-US security treaty, about 50,000 American troops are stationed in Japan. This forward presence enable the US Navy to respond rapidly to contingencies in the Asia-Pacific region.

Apologies for the seemingly off-topic link on the Trump administration’s announcement to pull 9,500 troops from Europe. IMO, this decision is rash — Asia is watching the American withdrawal from Europe with concern.
The show of force using American carriers has triggered a response from China on its new islands. There has been debate within the Malaysian academic and think tank community over the country’s response and its approach to the South China Sea more broadly, with some advocating a more conciliatory stance toward China in the interest of closer bilateral relations. Given the uncertainty in U.S.-China relations Malaysia is reluctant to make any decisions that could result in them being caught between the two.

The rationalizations offered by US national security adviser Robert O’Brien and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are a validation of the president’s personal grievances against Germany and its chancellor, Angela Merkel, not a thoughtful strategy. This decision would be a major blow to US credibility in Europe and a win for Russia.

American Forces stationed in Germany provide a strategic advantage for the US, especially in Africa and in the Middle East — they provide logistical support, intelligence capabilities, medical services, and contracting assistance to US governmental and military organizations in Europe, Africa and the Middle East. The forces in Europe are “an ocean closer” to many hot spots.

For example, the mission in Germany includes medical support at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center. This joint military medical facility is one the military’s largest trauma centers. Landstuhl serves the military and their families, but it also transfers the wounded and sick from other continents.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Japan is looking for future missile defence capabilities since the shore based AEGIS system has been cancelled.

 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Mageshima is just under Kyushu, so that should not cause any additional tensions in the regio.

 
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