Indonesian Aero News

Ananda

Well-Known Member
Stopping operators from getting spare parts through CAATSA can be considered overkill and a hard sell, but limiting what operators can upgrade and having their assets naturally become obsolete is easier to sell politically.
to stop the delivery of spareparts, which will cause grounded aircrafts, will make Indonesia and other countries think twice to buy american defence equipment.
Both arguments basically if we see the article on LM F-16 plan are something that being put up by LM toward Indonesian AF concern.
LM off course give options for F-16 packages but in the same time, like I put few months ago, concerned for overly depend with US still there.

The idea to diversify the Defense assets is still strong within some circles in MinDef. Flankers it self basically being procured not only to diversify but also to put politicall points with US.
Must remember that Soeharto that put the idea for Su-30 when Clinton and Democrats in Congress stop Indonesian effort to get more F-16. This after the Bush Sr still give endorsement for more F-16 even after Santa Cruz incidents.

The idea of Democrats will take over US Presidency after November, I suspect still put some unease within MinDef. After all as I put before, Indonesian relationship with Republican Presidency usually quite good, while Indonesian have more up and down relationship with US under Democrats (especially Carter and Clinton).

That's why even going all out with F-16 will be more logically done toward TNI-AU condition, MinDef will still try to find something else to compliment F-16 eventough it's not very logical choice.

This talk by on Rafale or Eurofighter certainly on that direction. MinDef now talk much with German and French. Even Democrats take over Presidency after November, CAATSA will still be hold someway. As this act has Bipartisan support.

We can't totally avoid Risk of Embargoes from US, Euro, French, China or even Russian. However since we're not doing anything with East Timor anymore, the chances also much smaller.
 

Ahmad

Active Member
As usual @Ahmad always optimistic on IFX. Before that, Indonesia must show the money first. Indonesia still only pay 20% of the commitment now. You say there's no money for new Fighters during the period of 2020-24. Well in that case, how are sure that there will be money to pay up the rest of Indonesia shares of commitment ?

If Indonesia does not pay up within that period, then the KAI will cut Indonesia from the program. Don't think that by putting IFX name in the banner during prototype ceremony, it's a guarantee that IFX program will still continue. IFX program will continue if Indonesia pay up the rest of commitment fund. ROK and KAI still want Indonesia in the program, well there's no secret on that. However doesn't mean they will continue keep Indonesia in the program if there is no further payments.

None of us including those forumers in the Indonesian forums, and blogspot or media are decision makers. This COVID situation will delay many Defense procurement for a year, or two, or more. Depends on how big the bills need to be covered for COVID. This will affect nearly all nation. However there's no decision yet on which Defense program will be prioritize and which one will delay or even cancelled.
I am not a decision maker, but that is my calculation on what potentially can happen in the future considering with our present circumstances where the potential policy that I stated is also supported by me. It is logical to think that with less budget for acquisition for Air Force then there will be more money left for other thing related to Air Force, but I dont force you to believe on my calculation and suggestion, neither you can force your opinion on me.

Yup, we should pay the money if we want to continue the program. Currently we are still under renegotiation with our ridiculous demand. I know there are many opposition on the program, including people who have vested interest on it like some one working in Lockheed Martin Indonesia or any ex generals that have strong connection with Lockheed Martin that may happen work in Jokowi office now.

One of the main reason of the renegotiation is also due to weak Rupiah at that time and huge trade deficit we posted in 2018. Some of the conditions that supports IFX opposition argument like trade deficit and weak Rupiah has been change in favor of IFX supporter where the numbers on those parameters are getting better now, AlhamdulILLAH.

Why are so sure that the money for KFX will not be switched to other Fighters program ?
The decision makers like I said on several posts before can decide to take on other fighter program that still can involved local Industry.

You always think this IFX is the only fighter program to involve local Industry. Well it's not. They can decide to 'say' buy two squadrons of second hand F-16, or Eurofighter and procured upgrade modules and doing upgrade locally by DI and TNI-AU technicians. This will still can be considered tech transfer program with local Industry. Moreover it still can be politically sold to the most of the publics.

They can also decided to go with license manufacturing other Fighter. Airbus already offered that for Eurofighter final assembly line in DI facilities. This will not be much differed with IFX cause as Junior Partner, DI basically only doing license manufacturing for KFX and call it IFX.
Not much different with what Italian and Japanese final assembly facilities for F-35.
Is Indonesia have prepared another Investment to make IFX considerable different with KFX ?
I don't think so, DI will used all the components being prepared on KFX for the 5th prototype that plan to be build by DI. Thus again it's not much different with license Manufacturing.

All I'm saying, so far only rumours that circulate. No final decision being make yet. The money will be tight for next couple of years due to COVID, and all Defense projects will have similar chance to potentially facing delay and possibly cancel. IFX is not excluded from that potential.
In the meantime KFX will keep move on regardless what's Indonesia decision.
Doing just an upgrade in Indonesia is not like making our own jet fighter. Do you know how much Indonesian know about CN 235, N 250, and N 219 and compare it on how many people know about F 16 A/B upgrade ???

No, IFX is not like license manufacturing. Dont compare it with F35 partners. F35 development cost is huge and those nations who involved in the project only has very small fraction of F 35 stake. They just part manufacturing and also do assembly work like in the case of Britain. They are not part of design team who work in LM office. I think you already know that the most difficult part of knowledge in every aerospace companies like Boeing and Airbus is in design.

Aerospace/ Air framer company like Indonesian Aerospace, KAI Aerospace, and even Boeing and Airbus dont make engine, AESA radar, and so on. What they do is design, fuselage component manufacturing, electrical jobs, assembly, integration, and testing. Indonesian Aerospace has similar stake portion like KAI Aerospace in KFX/IFX program which is 20 %. It is aerospace company who can say the plane belong to them, not radar or engine maker.

Making Stealth fighter can also give huge benefit for our nation brand. It will be good for other Indonesian high tech product like television/ refrigrator/ N219/ locomotive/train car that try to get international market. If the project is successful inshaAllah it will be free marketing for our high tech product penetration to international market and even also good for their image on our own domestic market.

Do you see this kind of thing in F 35 project office ?

1599372307499.png

 
Last edited:

Ananda

Well-Known Member
, IFX is not like license manufacturing. Dont compare it with F35 partners. F35 cost huge cost and those nations who involved in the project only has very small fraction of F 35 stake. They just part manufacturing and also do assembly work like in the case of Britain. They are not part of design team who work in LM office. I think you already know that the most difficult part of knowledge in every aerospace companies like Boeing and Airbus is in design.
Ahmad, since beginning you enter this forum, you have been told to learn first on F-35 program, if you still insistence on saying our position in KFX is not the same with what the International Partners in F-35 program.

F-35 program is always US/LM program, with International Partners tag along. Same with KFX where it's always ROK/KAI program with Indonesia/DI tagging along.
Again read the program of F-35, before saying that the International Partners did not involved with the design projects. They are already involved from the start of International Partnership program, even more than DI do in KFX.

What DI involvement anyway ? They are only doing design under KAI guidance, just like International Partners in F-35. All the IP on KFX will be own by KAI, just like F-35 own by LM.
You seems don't grasp the idea that DI did not in similar position with KAI.
If Indonesia still in KFX program, then DI basically buy the license from KAI to manufacture KFX since the IP belong to KAI. So for DI, yes KFX is just another contract for License manufacturing. Again do DI have IP possession on KFX or IFX if you like to call it ? No, all belong to KAI. If you do not understand that concept, then you don't understand the meaning of license Manufacturing.

Why bring DI experience with Turboprop Transport and compare it with Fighters development ? DI did not have experience in Fighter development, and this talk of KAI need DI experiences only diplomatic statement to boost Indonesian ego home.

Do you even have any idea how different the Turboprop Transport manufacturing and Fighters manufacturing ?
Do you think a Truck manufacturer for example can build Supercars based on their experience building truck. Cause that's the difference. DI experience are building Truck and now try to tag along KAI to build Supercar (and KAI in that sense already have experience).
 
Last edited:

Ananda

Well-Known Member
but I dont force you to believe on my calculation and suggestion, neither you can force your opinion on me.
No, I can't force you. But this's International professional forum, so please bring support for your opinion. Other than that you just become another Fan Boys that cling on to his own believe no matter what.

Can you provide prove that International Partners in F-35 program did not part of design team ?
Why do you say that building stealth fighters (which KFX even KAI says not a stealth fighters), can benefit other products ?
Those other products you mentioned already build by Indonesian Industry without any involvement of DI. This's same argument from Habibie when he poured the money to IPTN. Well, is there proof that IPTN R&D under Habibie provide much benefits to other Indonesian Industry ? If you have please shown and enlighten us.

Again all the IP and R&D results belong to KAI and other ROK industry that supports the projects. Indonesian if want to have the results on R&D tech of this project has to buy from ROK Industry.

You can have your own believe and 'dream', but again for this KFX shown the proof that DI has ownership of program. As everything that DI do so far in this project is under KAI direction and consent. Clearly this shown who has the ownership of the program.
 
Last edited:

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
General guidance directed at no one in particular. In the past, I have asked the Moderators to give leeway to the Indonesian threads to allow different points of view to emerge. That request has expired.

Going forward members who have a track record of being wrong shall be required to provide links. Please keep that in mind.
 

Ananda

Well-Known Member

Austrian MinDef now officially want to start negotiations phase with Indonesian MinDef on the sell of their Eurofighter Squadron.

Seems this procurement will involve Airbus. Which is understandable as Airbus are pushing to take over Su-35 deal which is stuck due to CAATSA (but from I heard also due to politicall fall out on local companies that will be included in the trade deal).
This's seems consistent with the rumours that I heard from Ministry of Finance and Bapenas. The budget for the Eurofighter deal will come from Su-35 budget.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Thanks for sharing! Just read it in Austria hopeful of Indonesia buying 15 Typhoon jet fighters but the link is only for subscribers and the photo of the physical newspaper is so low-res.

The point is that decisions have to be made, and fast!
These second hand EF2000s are, although second hand and of the first tranch, good enough to replace the for years grounded F-5s. After that we have to negotiate for more, to be build under licence. Specially because the current administration want to get rid of the KFX-program, it would be better for South-Korea and specially KAI to do it alone, without an unreliable partner.

If the EF2000 deal will be cancelled, Indonesia has to continue with the Su-35 deal, F-16V and more T-50 variants to fill up the F-5 hole, replace the BAe Hawks and add more fighter squadrons.
 

Attachments

Ananda

Well-Known Member
Will see what they (MinDef) will choose in the end. There're too much rumours on what will be choose, how to pay, and time line of procurement. All in the end being discussed on highest level in Cabinet.

I'm not really too concerned with those local analyst or some Parliament opposition in the media. In the end if this's going to be choose, it will involve Jokowi him self as final decision maker. Thus they will take care political side on that. They can twist the contract to involve upgrade packages within DI facilities, thus provide local Industry involvement which being dictate under the law.

The law only say that Defense procurement has to involve local industry or trade deal. For me, it's better to have Airbus with DI cooperation in the upgrade rather than trade deal like in Su-35. Too many chances of nepotism and corruption for trade deal.

The local Journalist still using that Euro 2 bio as cost of the deal. That the amount of Austrian initial deal, and I don't think Austrian will hope to sell it on that amount too.
I still tend to believe that the deal will be in same ball park figure of Su-35, and that's already including the upgrade packages. Too much more than that, it will be difficult to sell it politically to the public and Parliament.

If MinDef goes with Eurofighter, I tend to see what will be sacrifice are other candidates fighters like Rafale, Su-35 and KFX. But not F-16. Too much support from TNI-AU for F-16 for one thing, and geopolitical need with US.

Don't be surprised also that, despite all the talk of Rafale, Eurofighters, KFX, Su-35, the one being choose including to be license manufacture by DI is FA-50. ;)
Twisted road still ahead.
 
Last edited:

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Will see what they (MinDef) will choose in the end. There're too much rumours on what will be choose, how to pay, and time line of procurement. All in the end being discussed on highest level in Cabinet.

I'm not really too concerned with those local analyst or some Parliament opposition in the media. In the end if this's going to be choose, it will involve Jokowi him self as final decision maker. Thus they will take care political side on that. They can twist the contract to involve upgrade packages within DI facilities, thus provide local Industry involvement which being dictate under the law.

The law only say that Defense procurement has to involve local industry or trade deal. For me, it's better to have Airbus with DI cooperation in the upgrade rather than trade deal like in Su-35. Too many chances of nepotism and corruption for trade deal.

The local Journalist still using that Euro 2 bio as cost of the deal. That the amount of Austrian initial deal, and I don't think Austrian will hope to sell it on that amount too.
I still tend to believe that the deal will be in same ball park figure of Su-35, and that's already including the upgrade packages. Too much more than that, it will be difficult to sell it politically to the public and Parliament.

If MinDef goes with Eurofighter, I tend to see what will be sacrifice are other candidates fighters like Rafale, Su-35 and KFX. But not F-16. Too much support from TNI-AU for F-16 for one thing, and geopolitical need with US.

Don't be surprised also that, despite all the talk of Rafale, Eurofighters, KFX, Su-35, the one being choose including to be license manufacture by DI is FA-50. ;)
Twisted road still ahead.
Totally agree!

I also do not think that the deal will be €2M. That will be impossible, then its better for Indonesia to directly go to EADS for brand new EFs. It will be more like the procurement of the Nakhoda Ragam corvettes, just 20% of the original price, because the owner want to get rid of them.

An acquisition price of around €1M for 15 second hand EF2000 with a low amount of flying hours, including all the spareparts, tools, test equipment, GSE and weapons from Austrian inventory, plus ToT and upgrade package from EADS with the upgrade performed at IPTN is in my opinion absolutely acceptable.

And yes, its better to sacrifice Su-35 and KFX for it and having a fleet of Su-27/-30, F-16s, EF2000 and T-50s in stead of being stuck with no procurements at all like now.

But as always, lets wait and see what happen, until the EF2000s are all delivered to TNI-AU. After all, it will be not impossible that NOTHING will be bought until 2024.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
France has ordered three additional A330-200 MRTT on top of the first order of 12, to so support their aerospace industry.

Because France is also hit by the Covid crisis, it probably need to cut in the defence expenses, on the other hand they want to support their aerospace and defence industry, so there is a big chance that they will have too much MRTTs the coming years. This can be a good moment for countries like Indonesia that need these MRTTs. The first A330 MRTT of France is delivered in 2018, that means that even the oldest ones are just new.
 

Austrian MinDef now officially want to start negotiations phase with Indonesian MinDef on the sell of their Eurofighter Squadron.

Seems this procurement will involve Airbus. Which is understandable as Airbus are pushing to take over Su-35 deal which is stuck due to CAATSA (but from I heard also due to politicall fall out on local companies that will be included in the trade deal).
This's seems consistent with the rumours that I heard from Ministry of Finance and Bapenas. The budget for the Eurofighter deal will come from Su-35 budget.
Well, at least it's something other than MinDef twiddling their thumbs as usual.

However, I do wonder on whether or not the TNI AU would be able to operate all three jets (Flankers, EF's, Vipers) with the shoestring budget that they operate under. I can imagine either the Viper or the Flanker has to get on the chopping block sooner or later if they want to be able to effectively operate the EF.

And I very much doubt that they would be saving the Flankers over the Vipers in that regard.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Well, at least it's something other than MinDef twiddling their thumbs as usual.

However, I do wonder on whether or not the TNI AU would be able to operate all three jets (Flankers, EF's, Vipers) with the shoestring budget that they operate under. I can imagine either the Viper or the Flanker has to get on the chopping block sooner or later if they want to be able to effectively operate the EF.

And I very much doubt that they would be saving the Flankers over the Vipers in that regard.
For decades the TNI-AU operates multiple fighters/attack aircraft at the same moment.
Until 2003 it was a mixture of A-4, Bae Hawk Mk 53/109/209, F-5E/F and F-16.
Now its a mixture of the Hawks, F-16, Su-27/-30 and T-50i.
Even in the '60s it was a mixture of P-51, Il-28, MiG-17, -19 and -21.

So hopefully the grounded F-5s and later the Hawks can be replaced by one type of aircraft.
 

Ananda

Well-Known Member

This's the article from Kompas online about the Indonesian position with KFX program. Eventough the article stated Indonesia still in Renegotiation, however the article basically stating:
"The Renegotiation involve cost sharing agreement, but also include continuation on the program".

For that kind of statement come out from Indonesian MinDef that mostly doing 'diplomatic' statement on any International cooperation, clearly point out that if no agreement being reach, then there will be doubt on Indonesian continues participation in the project.

Jokowi's administration want to reduce Indonesian cost sharing from 20% to 15%, while ROK so far only agree slight decrease to 18.8%. This talk already from 2017 thus 3 years negotiations.
ROK already open to media how much Indonesia still withholding the payment of it's share, while now with this Article Indonesian MinDef openly talk about continue participation as part of negotiations. You don't talk about continuing participation in negotiations, when ROK as Senior Partner it self still want you in the project.

Kompas is respectable Indonesian media (few that can be say that at this moment when many Indonesian media already polluted by politicall influence). Thus they don't put just a 'rumours' or unconfirmed report.

For that, this is clear position on Indonesia in KFX at this moment. It's still 50:50, as I have posted few months ago on KFX issue. Thus at this moment even KAI still put IFX in their banner during their prototype ceremony, the IFX position still not guaranteed. What's certain right know is KFX project will continue to move on, whatever Indonesia decision will be.

Also, IFX supposed to be Indonesian version of KFX. During SBY era this envision as sharing platform based with KFX, but Indonesia will choose different system even in one time also consider different engine (as Korean prefer US engine but Indonesia looking for potential Euro Engine at that time).

Point is, to be real IFX, Indonesia will need further Investment to differentiate IFX from KFX. This to make DI to have some IP ownership for Indonesian version. However with current development, I highly doubt it will happen. Indonesia already shown reluctance to pay up 20% of it's shares, it's doubtful Indonesia still want to pour money for additional Investment for IFX as initially envision during SBY era.

Thus if somehow Indonesia and ROK reach agreement for Indonesia continuation in the project, what DI will assembly is just another 'license' KFX with full KAI IP ownership, and not 'real' IFX.

No difference at all with License Manufacturing. Even like NC-212i where Airbus already move the production facilities to DI, NC-212i legally still consitute build under license as the main IP holder still CASA which now part of Airbus.
This even with situation that DI already make some modifications to NC-212i which make DI have some IP.

This's just to make clear what's the meaning of license manufacturing is.
 
Last edited:

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Three years of "we want to pay less (if possible nothing) but we want 100% full intellectual property ownership" negotiations.... what a pathetic way to end the IPTN participation. The demands are so ridiculous, even if the negotiations continue until 2026, South-Korea can not accept them.
And at that time there is maybe nothing to participate anymore, the only thing Indonesia can get is licence production.
 

r0m8470

New Member
If the Typhoon buy really happened, do you see the Air Force give up the Flankers and move towards high/low mix of F16 and Typhoon, and use TA/FA-50 as the LIFT?

The Typhoon deal is interesting in a sense that it brought in airframe now. Or at least, some now, with some being upgraded - if the Air Force chose that path.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
If the Typhoon buy really happened, do you see the Air Force give up the Flankers and move towards high/low mix of F16 and Typhoon, and use TA/FA-50 as the LIFT?

The Typhoon deal is interesting in a sense that it brought in airframe now. Or at least, some now, with some being upgraded - if the Air Force chose that path.
The coming years i dont think TNI-AU will phase out the Sukhois, they do not have enough jetfighters for the required fightersquadrons. I expect the Hawks will be retired first, these aircraft are less capable and older. They will only retire the Sukhois way after 2030 if there are enough new fighters availble to replace both the Hawks and Sukhois.
 

Ahmad

Active Member
For that, this is clear position on Indonesia in KFX at this moment. It's still 50:50, as I have posted few months ago on KFX issue. Thus at this moment even KAI still put IFX in their banner during their prototype ceremony, the IFX position still not guaranteed. What's certain right know is KFX project will continue to move on, whatever Indonesia decision will be.
No one in this forum said that IFX position is guaranted, no need to make it bold man. Every one who follow the program understand that we are currently doing renegotiation and every thing can still happen. I have stated many times that it is 50:50 while you are the one who forbid me to call the project as KFX/IFX. I will try to answer your other comment later since it is a bit lazy now to do some serious writing to counter your other argument.
 
Last edited:

Ananda

Well-Known Member
have stated many times that it is 50:50 while you are the one who forbid me to call the project as KFX/IFX.
Since when I forbid you to call the project as KFX/IFX ? I already stated so many times that if you still want to call it like that, well that's your rights.

But also it's in my opinion based on the factual condition, that unless Indonesia pay up it's due then this project basically only KFX. That's my right too, and everyone else that have similar opinion on this.

Again due enlighten us on your claim that DI participation is not license Manufacturing. Cause if that's your claim, you have to prove that DI has IP rights same as KAI. Because that the meaning of license Manufacturing, you're manufacturing products from other parties that has the IP rights.
Like I said, this project is not same as CN235 where both IPTN and CASA has similar rights. That's why the project can be call join CASA and IPTN project. While this project can't, as DI only tag along as Junior Partner on KAI project.

Due enlighten us that as Junior Partner DI has more rights compared to other International Partners on LM F-35 project. You claim that no engineer from F-35 partners involvement with LM design-enginering project on F-35, unlike DI in KFX project. That's such a tall claim @Ahmad due provide backup to your claim.

Why shown there's KFX/IFX office in DI facilities as claim that DI position is superior compared to the International Partners in F-35 ? All the Partners in F-35 have their own F-35 project offices in their facilities. However that doesn't mean that they have the right to manufacture and marketing F-35 without US and LM consent. That the similar right that DI has in this KFX project. If you say different, then prove it with supporting sources.

Again, you have your own right for your opinions, but back it up in this forum.
 
Last edited:

Ahmad

Active Member
Another good news for Dirgantara Indonesia. Malaysian Air Force has send their CN235 to DI to do conversion into MPA/MSA plane.


1599626144417.png


By seeing how they write, I would recommend Malaysian to improve their Malay proficiency so it will not be difficult to find good Malay writer.
 
Top