Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
We can see on this post on Twitter from DCNS, that the defence minister is receiving a model what looks like an FTI..... well, let's wait and see if we get also extreme diversification in our navy.
Indonesia: 'green water navy'
- Thread starter Supe
- Start date
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Naval Group already offering FTI/FDI for few years to Indonesia. Already offering PAL to become partner yard in building it domestically. However it is still cost more then Arrowhead 140 and Turkiye Istiff. It is even cost more then PPA on full config. Just like China offer for Type 52D destroyer or Type 54 Frigate, it is gaining 'serious' assessment but still put on hold.
Defence Minister went to French meet Indonesian AF crew that already in Dasault to prepare first batch of Rafale transition. While in NG he visit PAL people (mostly welders) that doing on the job training with NG Submarine facilities.
Just like F-15EX/ID, FDI still in negotiation but all depends on how far NG can reduce the price to meet competitors range.
Defence Minister went to French meet Indonesian AF crew that already in Dasault to prepare first batch of Rafale transition. While in NG he visit PAL people (mostly welders) that doing on the job training with NG Submarine facilities.
Just like F-15EX/ID, FDI still in negotiation but all depends on how far NG can reduce the price to meet competitors range.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Another photos circulating online (seems originate from Keris FB followers) on the progress of FMP#1. Looking on the progress seems the target to launch it before November can be achievable. The second photo shown UAE LPD already being assembly, and PAL need FMP to flood out from dock soon to give room for both UAE LPD and Pinoy LPD#3.
Finally the ex Nahkoda Ragam corvette KRI Usman Harun entering Irian dock. The other grave dock in PAL that usually use for MRO. This MRO supposedly asside upgrading sensors and weapon systems, also change the VLS from Sea Wolf to VL MICA.
So the R-41 refurbishment program is not finish yet, however PAL CEO already claim it is finish.
Well that's shown how State Enterprises still talk big in media only.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
This is not big talk, but true lies.
Even the first of the three Nakhoda Ragam vessels isn't finished yet....
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Still 5 from original 6 Van Speijk (Netherlands Leander derivatives) operating. Last time I heard only 4 that in actual still operating, rumours 1 being set for spare parts. The 6th one already destroyed as SINKEX target.
Those 6 actually if not because indecision and changing preference at 2014-2019 previous administration term, should be replace by 6 SIGMA 10514 Light Frigates. Instead now only 2 being build, and that's why we see fluries of fast need on procuring 2 Italian PPA and 2 Turkish Istif frigates. More expensive move as both Italia and Turkiye 'naturally' demand premium prices to compensate giving up their own Navy sloots to be exported to Indonesia.
The 2 FMP (Arrowhead 140 derivatives) from my understanding will not be Van Speik/Ahmad Yani class replacement. Those two will be TNI-AL first dedicated AAW Frigates.
All this because some "thinkers/planners" in 2014-2019 administration term decided that SIGMA 10514 are not good enough, cut the order and manufacturing schedulles, and then undecided which choices going to replace. Until present administration has to take more expensive move replacing all those Van Speijks that already operating beyond their latest MLU extended age.
I believe Ecuador still has 2x ex-Chilean Leander derivates in commission, of course this doesn't mean that they are actually operational though.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Few hours ago, there's live talks in CNN Indonesia on future profiles of TNI-AL
As expected this interview get very negative reactions from online enthusiats. Especially the Chinese procurement for Type 053H. For me it is means the interim Frigates and Submarines program being decided to go to China.
It is in my opinion expected as MinDef still open the contex of Interim Submarine, Frigates and Fighters. Interim always means ready to use assets and it is going to means second hand assets.
Finance guys already talk China willing to fill the need for Interim assets as gap filling for Indonesia. Their offer is attractive from the term of financing and prices. China already being talk willing to give Frigates as sweeteners for Submarine packages.
Despite the talk of Type 053H, most of Type 053H already retired. The one still in PLAN inventory and rumours going to be retired soon after enough Type 54A or 54B available replacing them is Type 053H3.
So base on availability in Inventory and talk of 7 Frigates, then it is posibility this is the type they offering. In sense it is still at same era as Abukuma Destroyer Escort that Japan talk to give toward ASEAN members.
There are also rumours that talk the Chinese Frigates basically being procured without Guns, Missiles and Weapon systems, as those will be refurbished using Aselsan systems, Roketsan Missiles and Leonardo guns. Similar with what domestic build corvettes going to take.
This means the TNI-AL assets will be combine new assets originate mostly from French, Turkey and Italia, and interim/second hand assets from China (value for money consideration).
Add:
If this goes through, very potential that the interim frigates that actually will conduct function as Van Speijk replacement. Oto Melara 76mm on those Van Speijks even tough getting old, I believe still better to maintain then Chinese 100mm.
As expected this interview get very negative reactions from online enthusiats. Especially the Chinese procurement for Type 053H. For me it is means the interim Frigates and Submarines program being decided to go to China.
It is in my opinion expected as MinDef still open the contex of Interim Submarine, Frigates and Fighters. Interim always means ready to use assets and it is going to means second hand assets.
Finance guys already talk China willing to fill the need for Interim assets as gap filling for Indonesia. Their offer is attractive from the term of financing and prices. China already being talk willing to give Frigates as sweeteners for Submarine packages.
Despite the talk of Type 053H, most of Type 053H already retired. The one still in PLAN inventory and rumours going to be retired soon after enough Type 54A or 54B available replacing them is Type 053H3.
So base on availability in Inventory and talk of 7 Frigates, then it is posibility this is the type they offering. In sense it is still at same era as Abukuma Destroyer Escort that Japan talk to give toward ASEAN members.
There are also rumours that talk the Chinese Frigates basically being procured without Guns, Missiles and Weapon systems, as those will be refurbished using Aselsan systems, Roketsan Missiles and Leonardo guns. Similar with what domestic build corvettes going to take.
This means the TNI-AL assets will be combine new assets originate mostly from French, Turkey and Italia, and interim/second hand assets from China (value for money consideration).
Add:
If this goes through, very potential that the interim frigates that actually will conduct function as Van Speijk replacement. Oto Melara 76mm on those Van Speijks even tough getting old, I believe still better to maintain then Chinese 100mm.
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If the SIGMA 10514 is considered "not good enough", where does that leave the Type 053H3 (I presume it is the H3 version since they are the last of this class) ? Their technology is not a big jump from the Van Spejik, and worse, the systems are completely incompatible.
Why go through all the trouble for technology that is no better, even if it is "interim" whatever that means now.
Hulls are the least expensive part of the ship. If the entire suite of combat systems, sensors, and missiles are going to be brand new, sticking it into 20+ year old hulls is not value for money. Just buy them new from Turkiye with the ship or build the ships locally.
Got the money to buy PPA/LPH and then choose to buy junk and put new hardware on junk.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
I can't comment more on this Type 053H3 until more detail come out on this like:
- What is the cost to acquire those Frigates? Are those Frigates just sweteners for acquiring Type 039 Submarines?
- If it is sweeteners then how long it will be hold as interim Frigates.
If this is really interim Frigates, then very probable they are only being hold for several years or even a decade until new Frigates comes around. Babcock already offer extended license for FMP batch 2 , Fincantieri also known already having local shipyard partner to build PPA batch 2. Even talk on Istiff also open option for 2 more (not clear being build in Indonesia or Turkiye).
So there options for more PPA, FMP or Istiff. Rumours changes on SEWACO base on situation that Chinese equipment not compatible with TNI-AL current NATO standard system (yes many enthusiats in Indonesia forget that Turkiye system is still NATO standard).
Again all this just rumours at this moment. There still possibilities it will be only have limited adjustment, just like when Indonesia procured 39 (thus nearly all) DDR Navy in the 90's. The surviving Parchim under R-41 program being told to get local made CMS (base on LEN-Thales colab), to make them connected to others CMS under LINK-ID network. So it could be similar thing that being adjusted to those Type 053H3, 'if' it is still pursue.
Just like in 90's those ex DDR Corvettes, MCMV, and LST also being talk only going to be interim requirements for a decade untill new ships come around. Then Asian Financial crisis come, and those ex DDR still being use until now.
So at this moment I can only say, this could only be an interim move to replace older vessels with second hand vessels for relatively "cheap" prices, or turn out another ex DDR naval ships saga
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But that's is the whole point. It is history repeating itself.
Any long term planning for "future" frigates is always subject to changing political winds. So the short term solution is go "interim". But these interim ends up staying longer than "interim" and because they are there, the decision makers will think since you can survive with "interim", then why the urgency to replace?
Second, sweetner is because you want to lure the customer to buy something more expensive and better (e.g a Type 052 or a J-10CE). Example is the used M2K Mirages were tied to Rafale purchase and some basic alignment in logistic.
Type 039 is objectively, worse than the Scorpene, and probably no better than the Type 209 and same story as the frigates. Other than cheap acquisition cost (and but with potentially higher operational expense), RI gains nothing militarily. If it is some politically signalling to the Chinese, it is pretty naive to think buying some old ships/planes will be counted as anything special by the Chinese. Instead, the signalling I am seeing is people thinking there is corruption at play or just plain incompetence at political level.
Any long term planning for "future" frigates is always subject to changing political winds. So the short term solution is go "interim". But these interim ends up staying longer than "interim" and because they are there, the decision makers will think since you can survive with "interim", then why the urgency to replace?
Second, sweetner is because you want to lure the customer to buy something more expensive and better (e.g a Type 052 or a J-10CE). Example is the used M2K Mirages were tied to Rafale purchase and some basic alignment in logistic.
Type 039 is objectively, worse than the Scorpene, and probably no better than the Type 209 and same story as the frigates. Other than cheap acquisition cost (and but with potentially higher operational expense), RI gains nothing militarily. If it is some politically signalling to the Chinese, it is pretty naive to think buying some old ships/planes will be counted as anything special by the Chinese. Instead, the signalling I am seeing is people thinking there is corruption at play or just plain incompetence at political level.
I really do think it's just corruption, and they're trying to align the policy to match their private political/financial interest. It's kind of off topic, but similar pattern is repeated in other government policy outside defence, like the whole oil import ban stuff. This stuff exist before, and can be somewhat tolerated, but it feels like it's getting worse. Mainly because, at the political level, there really is no one that would scrutinize these kinds of decisions.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Interim solution is always been controversional move, and corruption always can happen in Indonesia whether procuring new assets or second hand assets. The ex DDR is also cynically accuse of mark up, even though it is G to G deal directly with German administration.
Buying second hand assets usually have horizon of 15-20 years operation until new ones can be ready to be build and operating. Interim solution also related to the delay of procurement from previous administration, that force defense planners to find fast available alternatives. I'm not keen with interim solution, but also understand why it has to happen. Delay procurement and budget realities are main factors for that.
Personally I prefer Japan's Oyashio then 039 (both being inspected by TNI-AL chief), but perhaps getting Oyashio need more time and budget to procure. We know Japan defense assets is good quality but also expensive to procure. Politics of Japan to sell use Submarine also not clear yet.
Getting 3 interim submarine is something that need to happen because 2nd batch DSME 209 being hold due to problem at 1st batch operation quality. The Scorpene never been planned as alternative for 209 2nd batch, as this is different categories altogether (remember term of Tactical and Strategic submarine). So asside some Italian design Drass Submarine the 3 interim Submarine being choose to get into the 12 Submarine target.
3 209, 3 039 as interim submarine, 4 Drass (40m+ class) midget submarine and 2 Scorpene is the submarine forces being circulate as TNI-AL posture by early next decade. 039 will not giving more advance capabilities the 209, as it is not planning for that. The advance SSK is Scorpene Evo.
Just like Frigates, the advances capabilities come from PPA and FMP. The interims second hand is gap procurement for a decade or more. However yes it is also can be stretch out more just like ex DDR. I just see TNI playing balance between quantity and quality.
Buying second hand assets usually have horizon of 15-20 years operation until new ones can be ready to be build and operating. Interim solution also related to the delay of procurement from previous administration, that force defense planners to find fast available alternatives. I'm not keen with interim solution, but also understand why it has to happen. Delay procurement and budget realities are main factors for that.
Personally I prefer Japan's Oyashio then 039 (both being inspected by TNI-AL chief), but perhaps getting Oyashio need more time and budget to procure. We know Japan defense assets is good quality but also expensive to procure. Politics of Japan to sell use Submarine also not clear yet.
Getting 3 interim submarine is something that need to happen because 2nd batch DSME 209 being hold due to problem at 1st batch operation quality. The Scorpene never been planned as alternative for 209 2nd batch, as this is different categories altogether (remember term of Tactical and Strategic submarine). So asside some Italian design Drass Submarine the 3 interim Submarine being choose to get into the 12 Submarine target.
3 209, 3 039 as interim submarine, 4 Drass (40m+ class) midget submarine and 2 Scorpene is the submarine forces being circulate as TNI-AL posture by early next decade. 039 will not giving more advance capabilities the 209, as it is not planning for that. The advance SSK is Scorpene Evo.
Just like Frigates, the advances capabilities come from PPA and FMP. The interims second hand is gap procurement for a decade or more. However yes it is also can be stretch out more just like ex DDR. I just see TNI playing balance between quantity and quality.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Bit historical talk on whose actually crewed TNI-AL Whiskey submarines during Papua confrontration at early 60's. If the Papua confrontation became hot, then Russia Pacific Fleet crews will involve on armed confrontation with a NATO member.
From other source I also being informed it is not only in Submarines that Russian crew involve (altough in submarine their involvement more shown). They are at Sverdlov cruiser and IL-28 especially the torpedo bombers variance. While at TNI-AU they are mostly with TU-16.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Menhan pastikan kapal selam tanpa awak lakukan uji tembak pekan depan
Menteri Pertahanan Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin memastikan TNI AL akan mengerahkan kapal selam autonomous (KSOT) atau kapal selam tanpa awak untuk melakukan uji tembak ...
www.antaranews.com
Indonesia Defense Minister claim that the PAL UUV/KSOT will conduct trial of torpedo launch on next week. Shown PAL want to speed up their UUV phases development.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
The irony is this is the same MinDef guy in CNN Indonesia that put slide images of 039 Submarine and 053 Frigate from China as the potential TNI-AL in near future along with FMP, PPA, Istiff and Scorpene. Now he publicly say the Chinese procurement still on studies and not specific choices being made. Seems someone shown the map in CNN Indonesia prematurly.
The Euro sales brokers that call themselves Defense Analysts manage to create steering in some Publics toward those who support Chinese Defense items acquisition and those who reject it. Still somehow I still see in the end back to budget realities. Especially if rumours is true that those Type 053H3 are part of Type 039 submarine sweeteners.
Some time ago I put arguments that various Indonesia administrations prefer dealing with Republican White House rather then Democrats ones, as Republican more being drive by transactional business rather then idiological neo liberals democrats.
This seems so at this moments. Buying defense items from China is part of balancing act. It is not just the numbers and values but I see as signal to China that Indonesia not consider them as military threat. Thus willing to procure some defense equipment from them.
While to US, at this moment US seems still willing to see Indonesia playing in middle. Boeing still got significance commercial airliners deal, Bell and later on Sikorski will still dominate Army helicopters. Indonesia want to balance both China and US, and that signal seems get through to both Beijing and Washington. Off course both will also going to continue their counter games on tipping the balance. In my opinion, nothing change much.
As for Australia, the signal still same in my opinion. At this moment Russian fighters patroling Eastern Indonesia in front off Australia northern border. While Western Fighters patrolling Western Indonesia facing the strategic chocke points that China must goes through from SCS to Indies. Just like to Beijing and Washington, the Canberra also got same signal. Indonesia still want to stay in the middle.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Just clearer image on PT. PAL UUV/KSOT trial prototype. This is the prototype that Indonesian Defense Minister claim will have torpedo trial next week. The torpedo from light weight class and will be fired from external tube.
Bayraktar TB3 being upgrade by Leonardo for ISR duties even as mini MPA. Put in this thread as TNI-AL already set to become TB-3 big user. So there's potential this kind of set up being offer for TNI-AL.
All pictures from various accounts in X.
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Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Old obsolete worn out second hand frigates as sweetener for the acquisition of old second hand submarines.... in my opinion this is not really a sweetener but an insult. This is absolutely a step back.
I have the feeling that this whole procurement plan is a sweetener for the chinese, to please them. It is just remarkable that those plans are pushed in a serious way at the moment some politicians try to decrease the % for each year of payments of debts for our high speed train line.
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