Indo Pacific strategy

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
For a free and open Indo-Pacific. This was the purpose of this joint exercise between the American, Australian, French and Japanese navies.

In the video we can see the participating ships, two of them are from the Hayabusa-class ships of guided missile patrol boats, the PG-826 Otaka (おたか) and the PG-829 Shirataka (しらたか). These boats have enough firepower fore their size and they can reach a speed of 46 knots (85 km/h), JMSDF has only 6 vessels of this class.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Secretary of Defense Austin’s Concept of Integrated Deterrence — Part 1 of 4

1. U.S. Assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, Dr. Ely Ratner was sworn into office (after Senate confirmation) by the U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, on a flight to deliver the 40th IISS Fullerton Lecture in Singapore. For the past six months, Ely Ratner led the department’s 15 member China task force, which reviewed where the Pentagon stood in its efforts on Beijing — in my opinion, any Pentagon strategy on China will need input from Japan, India and Singapore, as three legs of a geographic logistics triangle that straddles the 1st and 2nd island chains — in addition, Pentagon’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center will find receptive ears in Japan and Singapore. Below are some extracts of the Q&A that followed the Feb 2021 DoD China Task force announcement to provide context:

“Q: I guess I'm just trying to understand what that means exactly, that you're trying to figure out whether your best positioned to -- whether DOD is best organized to address these problems. Like what changes could there be?​
DR. RATNER: I'm not going to pre -- again, I'm not -- and I'm being completely straight, I'm not going to pre-judge the findings. What -- what is clear is that this issue of technology competition is of increasing importance in the U.S.-China relationship. It's a huge priority for the administration, they've made that clear. There's a new technology directorate inside the NSC.​
And many of the issues related to technology have to do with defense and security issues, and we have to make sure that DOD is adequately organized to be able to answer the kind of questions that the interagency is asking, and also as it relates to both innovation and supply chain and technology protection issues.​
So this is, in -- in some ways, a -- it's illustrative, insofar as it's, in some ways, a -- a new issue set in parts of its dimensions and we kind of make sure that we're organized to address it.​
...​
Q: Sir, the military-to-military contacts in the Indo-Pacific are -- are key to a lot of these things. Will your task force be looking at the current state of military-to-military contacts and then perhaps suggesting areas where they could be improved or enhanced or -- or new countries that should be approached? Is that the sort of thing you're looking at?​
DR. RATNER: Absolutely, I think both in the context of how are we approaching our alliances and partnerships but also how are we approaching our defense relations with China? Absolutely, we'll be looking at both of those.”​

2. Through the recommendations of the DoD task force, Secretary Austin has actionable recommendations and milestones to meet the China challenge; including an assessment of the best way to defend the international, rules-based order. Secretary Austin called it “magnificent piece of work” that fueled future policy plans. The U.S. Senate also confirmed:
  • Heidi Shyu, to be undersecretary of defense for research and engineering — Taiwan-born Shyu immigrated to the U.S. at age 10
  • Shawn Skelly, to be an assistant secretary of defense for Readiness — Skelly is a retired Navy commander, and the second openly transgender person to be confirmed as a federal official
  • Meredith Berger, to be assistant Navy secretary for energy, installations and environment
  • Caroline Krass, to be Pentagon general counsel
  • Gina Ortiz Jones, to be undersecretary of the Air Force — Jones is a lesbian and a retired USAF Captain, had worked in the Defense Intelligence Agency, where she specialized in Latin American topics
3. Secretary Austin’s lecture is titled "The Imperative of Partnership" and it affirms Biden administration's position that no country can go it alone: "Our network of alliances & friendships is an unparalleled strategic asset."
(a) Secretary Austin said: “How can we unite to recover and to rebuild? And how do we work hand in hand to forge a more resilient regional order?​
We think that the answer involves three components—and all of them are rooted in the imperative of partnership.​
First, the most urgent task is recovery. We must redouble our fight against COVID and raise up a safer, healthier, and more prosperous future.​
Second, we must look further ahead… and invest in the cooperation, and the capabilities, and the vision of deterrence that will meet the security challenges here in Southeast Asia and across the Indo-Pacific.​
And third, we must recommit ourselves to the great, long-term project of coming together as Pacific states to build a free and open region… one that stretches toward new horizons of partnership, prosperity, and progress.”​
(b) In addition, Secretary Austin called the U.S.-developed vaccines ''medical miracles,'' as they have proven remarkably effective at preventing illness or lessening the severity of an infection. ''And you know what? They're free,'' Austin said. ''No conditions. No small print. And no strings attached. Because this is an emergency. And that's what friends do.'' The secretary noted Singapore aided India when COVID-19 threatened to overwhelm that nation. He also pointed out that Singapore has three new vaccine-production facilities planned or under construction.​
(c) Meanwhile, India, Japan, Australia and the United States have committed to producing and delivering a billion vaccine doses in the Indo-Pacific, he said. ''South Korea is aiming to produce up to a billion vaccine doses this year,'' Austin said. ''To help, the United States and South Korea have established a comprehensive global vaccine partnership.''​
(d) Austin mentioned the exercises Pacific Vanguard as well as Talisman Sabre off Australia, which involved the United States, Japan, Australia and South Korea carrying out “integrated, high-end maritime operations.” In relation to China, Secretary Austin said: “We will not flinch when our interests are threatened. Yet we do not seek confrontation.​
So let me be clear: As Secretary, I am committed to pursuing a constructive, stable relationship with China… including stronger crisis communications with the People’s Liberation Army. You know, big powers need to model transparency and communication. And we hope that we can work together with Beijing on common challenges, especially the threat of climate change.”​
(e) Secretary Austin also said: “Singapore has chosen to invest in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. That’s going to boost our collective capabilities… and open up new opportunities for high-end combined training.​
Integrated deterrence also means working with partners to deter coercion and aggression across the spectrum of conflict… including in the so-called “grey zone” where the rights and livelihoods of the people of Southeast Asia are coming under stress. That’s why we’re working to strengthen local capacity and to bolster maritime-domain awareness, so that nations can better protect their sovereignty… as well as the fishing rights and the energy resources afforded them by international law.​
Meanwhile, we’re improving interoperability across our security network. And that includes more complex exercises and training. In Japan, for example, we recently wrapped up an ambitious, large-scale exercise… in which U.S. and Japanese forces together conducted the first successful firing of a High Mobility Artillery Rocket System in Japan.”​
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Secretary of Defense Austin’s Concept of Integrated Deterrence — Part 2 of 4

4. Along with the Fullerton Lecture (on 27 July 2021), Secretary Austin, Assistant Secretary Ratner and key members of the DoD team are in Singapore from 26 to 28 July 2021 for an introductory three-day visit.

5. To reaffirm Singapore’s support for the Coalition’s efforts to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS globally, in relation to the multilateral CTIF, Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr Vivian Balakrishnan attending the Ministerial Meeting of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Rome (co-chaired by Italy’s Luigi di Maio and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken), on 28 June 2021 has said:
“Returning foreign terrorist fighters remain a clear and present danger. To prevent potential attacks, a new multilateral Counter-Terrorism Information Facility was established in Singapore this year. Like-minded countries can share intelligence, and pool monitoring and analysis capabilities through this Facility.​
Singapore adopts a “not if, but when” approach to counter-terrorism. Extremism and radicalisation are not confined to any single religion, race, gender or age. A robust security response is essential but insufficient. We will continue to work closely with the community and religious organisations to identify radicalised individuals. We need to win hearts and minds of people around the world and around the region. We need trust and unity amongst different groups, and eliminate misperceptions or prejudice wherever they arise.”​
6. Flying in from a visit to Japan (after meeting with Japanese Minister of Defense KISHI Nobuo), US Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Michael Gilday is in Singapore from 26 to 29 July 2021 for a four-day introductory visit, called on Lt-Gen. Melvyn Ong (CDF), Rear-Admiral Aaron Beng Yao Cheng (Chief of Navy) and Dr Ng. Admiral Michael Gilday is in Singapore to give a speech for the International Maritime Security Conference on 28 July 2021 and he said:

“The United States and Singapore are more than just military partners. Our relationship is deep and enduring. We’re close friends, strategic partners, and we collaborate closely every single day.”​

During their meeting, Dr Ng and ADM Gilday discussed regional security developments and initiatives to continue strengthening mutual cooperation between the two navies moving forward. Both sides also commended the successful completion of the recent Exercise Pacific Griffin between the Singapore Navy and the US Navy.

7. In a parallel move, the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in India for a two-day visit on 27 to 28 July 2021 for talks with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, announced the Ministry of External Affairs. In this trip, Secretary Blinken seeks to:
(a) reassure a key Asian partner over NATO’s military withdrawal (and turmoil) from Afghanistan; and​
(b) discuss common worries about China,​

while touching on New Delhi's rights record to address concerns of Biden’s progressive electoral base — all these while keeping the arms sales to India ongoing on behalf of the American military industrial complex.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Secretary of Defense Austin’s Concept of Integrated Deterrence — Part 3 of 4

8. Prior to flying off to meet General Phan Văn Giang (Minister of National Defence) in Vietnam and Delfin Lorenzana (Secretary of National Defense) in the Philippines, Austin and Ratner also call on Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and the Minister of Defence, Dr. Ng Eng Hen. Both sides expressed satisfaction that military cooperation continued to be strong despite the COVID-19 pandemic. Dr Ng and Secretary Austin also exchanged views on geopolitical developments and regional security issues, and agreed on the importance of the US' continued engagement in region.

9. A Joint Statement released by Dr Ng and Secretary Austin after their meeting reaffirmed both countries' commitment to strengthen defence cooperation. The American and Singaporean defence chiefs highlighted the signing of the 2019 Protocol of Amendment renewing a 1990 MOU that facilitates US forces' access to Singapore's military facilities; along with the signing of a MOU establishing a Singaporean fighter training detachment in Guam, these underscored the long-standing and multi-faceted defence ties, read the statement. Last month, both countries announced that Ebbing Air National Guard Base, Arkansas had been selected to host Singapore's F-35B detachment as well as co-location of the RSAF’s F-16 fighter detachment (to be relocated from Luke Air Force Base, Arizona). In addition, both Dr Ng and Secretary Austin:

(a) “emphasized that the DoD values Singapore’s training presence inside the United States;”​
(b) “look forward to new high-end bilateral training opportunities, including future cooperation as the U.S. hosts Singapore’s future F-35B fighter detachment;” and​
(c) “expressed hope for further cooperation, including in areas such as cyber defence, strategic communications and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.”​

10. These multi-faceted defence ties include Singapore's establishment of the multilateral Counter-Terrorism Information Facility (CTIF), of which the US is a partner nation. At this time, CTIF HQ is headquartered at Changi Naval Base, is led by a delegation from Indonesia (namely, LTC Inf Henru Hidayat Susanto from BAIS TNI).
(a) CTIF consists of 10 countries (namely, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, United States, Philippines, Brunei Darussalam, New Zealand, Vietnam and Thailand). Based in Changi Naval Base, the CTIF is manned by representatives from the armed forces of these member countries, whose role is to gather intelligence on emerging violent-extremist organisations (VEO) like the Katibah Nusantara.​
(b) On 26 Sep 2014, the Katibah Nusantara Lid Daulah Islamiyah (or the Malay Archipelago Unit for the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) was formally launched, and headquartered in Al-Shadadi, in the Syrian province of Hasaka. While Islamic State has surfaced as a major threat world-wide, this has become even more compelling for Southeast Asia with the establishment of Katibah Nusantara. With more than 700 and 200 fighters from Indonesia and Malaysia respectively, and a smaller number from Southern Philippines, these Malay-speaking fighters are being organised and emanate from Southeast Asia where a sizeable number of world’s Sunni Muslims reside.​
(c) CTIF helps explains why Commander of the US Special Operations Command, Gen. Richard D. Clarke, visited Singapore (for 3 days in June 2019) and it works with JTF-510, a rapidly deployable JTF HQ (under PACOM that can be activated and deployed at short notice by the US Secretary of Defense). JTF-510 is the subject matter expert on civil–military operations (CMO) and on VEOs, including the study of the Katibah Nusantara, in the Islamic Archipelago (or Malay Archipelago Unit, depending on how the source documents are translated).​
(d) Active as a VEO on Basilan island and in Mindanao, ASG is notorious for kidnapping locals and foreigners for ransom and beheading them when they cannot afford to pay. Despite being barred from engaging in combat when deployed to Basilan and Mindanao, JTF-510 were engaged in three broad categories of activity from 2001 to 2014, where American special forces:​
(i) provided operational advice and direct support to Philippine operations against the designated threat groups;​
(ii) helped train, equip, and improve the Philippine forces’ capabilities; and​
(iii) conducted CMO and information operations in conjunction with Philippine forces to enable combat operations, and reduce the safe havens available to VEOs.​
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Secretary of Defense Austin’s Concept of Integrated Deterrence — Part 4 of 4

11. For the last 20 years, much of USSOCOM and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) work has been focused on counterterrorism, making sure the US does not experience another horror like occurred on 11 Sept 2001. But that counterterrorism work is going to be more geographically dispersed and evolve to address the changing shape of terrorism. The DIA refocus more attention on the acts of maligned state actors, like, China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia is going to be another area of change; and significantly more so by 2030.

(a) 3 1/2 decades ago, the U.S. invested more R&D — money as a percent of its GDP than any nation in the world. Now the Americans are number eight. Back then, China was number nine; but they are now number two. Therefore, the U.S. cannot just try to outspend them — instead, the Americans have to spend both their R&D money and their DIA budget allocation in focused and creative ways, to be competitive.​

(b) It is especially important that the DoD work closely with partners and allies to maintain America’s technological edge; shore up supply chains; ensure that the rules that govern technologies adequately support American partners and allies. Average Americans are never going to learn about the lives DIA saved or the disasters that never come to pass because of diligent, professional intelligence work — that is why collaboration CTIF at Changi Naval Base makes sense.​

(c) Gen. Richard D. Clarke of USSOCOM on decision centric warfare, said: “No longer can we just build counter-VEO capabilities that serve a single purpose. As we look at the precision, lethality and mobility requirements as examples, we absolutely have to develop them so they can compete and win with Russia and China, but they could also work in a counter VEO fight,” and USSOCOM’s top priority is next generation intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capability. That means sustainable ISR technology that “can provide the capability in both Great Power Competition and working for our SOF teams in remote, austere, short take-off-and land battlefields,” he said.​

12. Singapore also joined the multinational Artificial Intelligence Partnership for Defence in May, which aims to enable multilateral cooperation and exchange of best practices on responsible Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the defence sector, added the joint statement.

(a) “In the AI realm, as in many others, we understand that China is our pacing challenge. We’re going to compete to win, but we’re going to do it the right way,” Austin told the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence on 13 July 2021.​

(b) AI is central to the new American way of war, All Domain Operations. Austin offered a nod to the concepts guiding US development of these systems: “Used right, AI capabilities can play a critical role in all four areas of the Joint Warfighting Concept that I approved this spring, including joint fires, Joint All Domain Command and Control, contested logistics, and information advantage.” The new Joint Warfighting Concept to guide future military operations is “aspirational,” and now must be fleshed with the resources to be allocated.​
(c) The Global Information Dominance Experiments (GIDEs) are designed as virtual experiments, testing software-based decision aids developed for NORTHCOM that use AI or machine learning software. GIDE 3 was based on a three-phase scenario, beginning in the pre-conflict stage with a peer adversary, that put a heavy focus on managing “contested logistics”. All 11 Combatant Commands participated in the exercise, and representatives from a couple of allied countries were involved as observers. GIDEs are software based tools, that includes:​
(i) a radar-integration tool;​
(ii) an “information dominance” tool to amalgamate various sensor and even social media inputs; and​
(iii) a “cross-command collaboration” tool that creates a virtual 3D battlefield.​
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Gap between Austin’s concept and ground reality — Part 1

1. The US Navy secretary is the final service secretary the Biden administration needs approved. After months in the office, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, has two in the bag and one more to go, for key appointments in the DoD, so I am not sure how serious the Americans are with regard to a rising China.

(i) Frank Kendall confirmed as Air Force secretary;​
(ii) Christine Wormuth confirmed as Army Secretary; and​
(iii) the Senate Armed Services Committee has advanced President Biden's nominee to lead the Navy, Carlos Del Toro. This paves the way for a vote on the Senate floor for his appointment.​
2. If confirmed, Del Toro would lead the U.S. Navy at a time when naval power is expected to be at the forefront of U.S. competition with China. At his confirmation hearing, Del Toro pledged to be "exclusively" focused on China. "It's incredibly important to defend Taiwan in every way possible," Del Toro told the Senate Armed Services Committee. "It takes a holistic view of our national commitment to Taiwan. We should be focused on providing Taiwan with as much self-defensive measures as humanly possible. "And if confirmed to the Navy, I am going to be exclusively focused on the China threat and exclusively focused in moving our maritime strategy forward in order to protect Taiwan and all of our national security interests in the Indo-Pacific theater," he added. But, the Americans are not just facing off with China in Asia. Russia has a vote too and Sergey Radchenko does an excellent job taking us back through history, dispelling current myths and tropes about Russia's 'bad marriage' with China and he is able to explain why today's alignment is not like the rocky days of the Sino-Soviet alliance.

3. Del Toro will have to address eroding morale and the apparent drift from operational professionalism detailed in “A Report on the Fighting Culture of the United States Navy Surface Fleet.” The key here is taking early actions that demonstrate a commitment to holding senior officers accountable for executing their missions effectively. You would think it is slam dunk for the US Navy to get more funds but wait, the US Army has a plan to steal the US Navy’s lunch money at the cafeteria. Christine Wormuth writes:
“The Army is now a leader in new technology… From Army Futures Command to the Cross Functional Teams to the Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office… the Army is prototyping and experimenting with new capabilities and concepts.​
The Army is at the forefront of developing and fielding new technology in counter-UAS, directed energy, hypersonic weapons, next generation Assured-Positioning, Navigation and Timing devices, pushing software coding to the edge, and in many other areas.​
The Army can be relied upon to engage with our allies, foster partnerships, establish integrated deterrence, and set conditions for success prior to or while engaging in conflict. Deterrence requires boots on the ground and the DoD must be present to succeed in crises.”​

4. Not only does the US Navy have a morale problem, it has an obsession with technology to the overall detriment of maintaining its existing fleet well and its budget troubles prevent it from building more. Consider the example of the Ford vs Nimitz carriers. The Nimitz design is perfectly capable. Whereas the Ford class carrier, despite all the upgrades and its slightly smaller crew offers only a marginal increase in combat effectiveness over the Nimitz, by way of increased sorties it can launch, if it’s systems work correctly. More importantly, Ford does so at twice the price tag. The Ford is modernization for the sake of modernization and not for the sake of real enhanced combat effectiveness.

5. No progress has been made toward the goal of a 355 ship navy under Biden. As others have noted, ships have an average life of about 35 years. Replacement is 8 to 9 ships a year. Expansion of the force over a 10-year period requires about 70 ships above replacement quantity or 7 ships a year. Total annual ship acquisition for the next 10 years should be about 15 ships. Average procurement recently has been about 8 ships. At this rate, force expansion for the US Navy is impossible.

6. Del Toro testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee along with four other Pentagon nominees – Kathleen Miller, the nominee to serve as Pentagon comptroller, Mara Karlin, the administration’s nominee to serve as the assistant secretary for strategy, plans, and capabilities, and former House Rep. Gil Cisneros (D-Calif.), the nominee to serve as the under secretary of defense for personnel and readiness. Michael Connor, the nominee for the Army’s assistant secretary for civil works, also testified as part of his nomination process.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Gap between Austin’s concept and ground reality — Part 2

7. Secretary Austin and Assistant Secretary Ratner had a productive trip to Singapore and Vietnam. The last stop of the trip is a waste of time, as I see it. US-Philippines reset 2.0?
(a) The proud Pinoys will see this as a US-Philippines reset 2.0 but I see it as a waste of America’s time. There is nothing mutual in the MDT between the US and the Philippines — in part because the Pinoys have zero commitment to fighting along side American troops in Iraq or Afghanistan (when compared to the commitment shown by Australia, Malaysia, UK, NZ, or Singapore in our work in Afghanistan), zero fighters, zero submarines and zero anti-ship missile armed frigates.​
(b) The Pinoys, as the Chinese minions of Southeast Asia:​
(i) mis-label their Korean made corvettes and call them frigates (FFNW is the norm in the Philippine Coast Guard that is wrongly called a navy); and​
(ii) have an Air Force that is all air but no force — as a country without any true multi-role fighters. The TWG of their Air Force claim to have selected the Gripen, but I see no news on an order. As bullshit specialists, they claim to want to buy fighters, when they are really looking at getting more freebies from the American money tree. Shake and money falls seems to be the attitude.​

8. Philippine-US talks at the Secretary of defense level on possible VFA modification (to avoid its termination initiated and paused by President Duterte) begins in earnest as the U.S. Defense Secretary Llyod Austin arrives for a pit-stop in Manila to sell the idea of a US Pacific Defense Initiative (PDI) to benefit the AFP. In a short while, President Duterte will announce that the VFA is no longer cancelled but that is not real news, as the AFP badly needs freebies from the Americans. IMHO, PDI is the key to understanding how the Americans (under Biden), will approach relevant partners in ASEAN. The relevant partners in ASEAN are Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia (in that order of importance), with the Philippines as a side show.
(a) Secretary Austin and Assistant Secretary Ratner have my respect for trying to fix the hand they are given, on the last and least important stop of their 3 leg tour of Southeast Asia (namely, Singapore, Hanoi and Manila) — it is significant that there is no attempt to make a stop in Jakarta, who is the leader of ASEAN — the significance of which, I will explain in another post, much later.​
(b) The PDI has five subject areas that INDOPACOM is concentrating on:​
(i) Force Design and Posture;​
(ii) Exercises, Experimentation, and Innovation;​
(iii) Joint Force Lethality;​
(iv) Logistics and Security Enablers; and​
(v) Strengthen Allies and Partners.​
(c) Even sensible ASEAN members have given up on the Pinoys, but the Americans and Japanese are still trying by paying for ships and aircraft for useless Chinese minions like Duterte. With adults in charge in the White House, DoD and the State Department, American diplomatic moves as detailed in the Fullerton Lecture (on 27 July 2021) are not to be underestimated. As Biden is so fond of saying, America is back — which means ASEAN can play a role in the days ahead.​
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
The amount of participating nations is almost as much as a RIMPAC exercise.

I think this is the first time that an Astute-class SSN visits South-Korea, its maybe the first time a RN submarine visits this part of the world in decades. (Please correct me if im wrong.)

 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The amount of participating nations is almost as much as a RIMPAC exercise.

I think this is the first time that an Astute-class SSN visits South-Korea, its maybe the first time a RN submarine visits this part of the world in decades. (Please correct me if im wrong.)

Yep and there's supposed to be a FPDA exercise at some stage too. The RNZN has the ANZAC frigate Te Kaha and the new AOR Aotearoa in the region at the moment so I presume that they are involved in the SEACAT EX. Unsure if the RNZAF have a P-3K2 up there as well.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 1 of 3: The American Charm offensive

1. With Kamala Harris, her National Security Advisor Nancy McEldowney and Symone Sanders (chief spokeswoman for the VP), in Singapore, the familiar US-ASEAN talking points will be repeated. But ASEAN is in very rough shape — a reality that team Biden should not deny (in the same manner like the denial that occurred in Afghanistan). This is a chance for the Americans to follow up on the visits by Secretary Austin and VP Harris, to step up vaccine diplomacy in this region, and resource their Indo-Pacific strategy.

(a) "The way that the withdrawal from Afghanistan happened was very damaging to US credibility", says Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. "But in the long term, it depends what they do next. If they follow up on the Austin and Harris visits, stepping up vaccine diplomacy in this region, if they fully resource their Indo-Pacific strategy, this could be a more focused foreign policy for the Biden administration, away from the Middle East and the wars that cannot be won."​
(b) The recent donation of 23 million doses of Covid vaccines has given the US image in South East Asia an unexpected lift, the perceived quality of its mRNA technology contrasting favourably with the less effective Chinese-made vaccines which have been deployed in large quantities. Ms Harris will capitalise on that by proposing deeper healthcare and medical partnerships, and opening a first regional branch of the US Center for Disease Control in Hanoi.​
(c) As Kamala Harris makes her way within ASEAN, Indonesia (where the pandemic is so bad it is being compared to the surge in India), Myanmar (plus over 1,000 now killed since the Feb 2021 coup, healthcare system on the brink), Malaysia (with the last PM ousted in part over awful handling of Covid-19 and the party back in power, UMNO, is synonymous with racism and corruption), the Philippines (with an economy that contracted 9.5% and the inability to handle Covid-19), and Vietnam (where less than 2% of its 98 million people have been fully vaccinated), most have been absolutely battered by Covid-19 and facing simmering unrest; therefore, ASEAN will be looking for US economic commitment perhaps more than security-related deliverables.​
2. While President Biden has suffered some political fallout from the crisis, recent surveys suggest the long-term effects may be muted — a plurality of Americans surveyed favor the withdrawal, 40%, compared to the 28% opposed — crucially for Biden, 59% of adults said they agreed with a verbatim statement, drawn from his Monday speech, that “ending U.S. military involvement now was the right decision” because “American troops cannot and should not be fighting in a war and dying in a war that Afghan forces are not willing to fight for themselves.”

3. From 21 to 22 Aug 2021, there have been 23 US military flights evacuating approximately 3,900 personnel from Afghanistan, and 35 coalition aircraft (including partners, foreign military, and commercial airlines) evacuating approximately 3,900 personnel.
(a) The Indonesian foreign minister reported that the evacuation of Indonesian nationals from Kabul was successful. The Indonesian military aircraft carrying out this mission is now in Islamabad. On board the TNI AU aircraft are 26 Indonesian nationals including 5 Embassy staff, 5 Filipinos and 2 Afghans (a spouse of an Indonesian national and a local staff of the Embassy). They are lucky to get out without being shot at.​
(b) A firefight involving Western forces erupted at Kabul airport on 23 Aug 2021 when Afghan guards exchanged fire with unidentified gunmen, Germany's military said. 1 killed and 3 wounded at the airport, and 2 NATO officials at the airport said the situation was under control after the firing.​

4. Thus far, Air Mobility Command (AMC) has activated 18 American commercial aircraft (3 American, 3 Delta, 3 Omni, 3 Atlas, 2 Hawaiian, and 4 United). A US defense official also says that the use of these 18 planes “will have no impact on commercial flights;” these airlines will be reimbursed for the flights. White House also says that POTUS, VP, national security team met by secure video conference while on Kamala Harris’ flight to Singapore, regarding: security situation in Afghanistan and counterterrorism ops, including ISIS-K:
"They discussed the massive logistical operation to evacuate American citizens and their families, SIV applicants and their families, and vulnerable Afghans both on U.S. military aircraft, as well as flight charters and coalition flights. The national security team discussed the aggressive efforts to finalize agreements with additional third-party country transit hubs.”​
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
IMHO the methodology of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan must reinforce doubts about the reliability of the US as an ally and coalition partner. No informing allies and coalition partners of the withdrawal. Just pack up and run and to hell with the consequences.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 2 of 3: The American Charm offensive

5. US Defense Secretary Austin orders the use of commercial aircraft under a voluntary arrangement. US commercial airlines will start to fly Afghan evacuees — only 3rd time since Gulf War that these mechanism has been used. These planes are part of the Civil Reserve Air Fleet. In the past this fleet was activated for both Desert Shield and Iraqi Freedom. They are operated and maintained by their carriers/owners, but tasked by Air Mobility Command (AMC).

6. In the joint press conference on 23 Aug 2021 with VP Harris, PM Lee Hsien Loong said that multiple U.S. presidents had declared their resolve to withdraw from Afghanistan, and described it as an "extremely difficult situation" inherited by the Biden Administration. He told Harris that Singapore understood the reasons for U.S. President Joe Biden's decision, and added that the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) will assist in by sending its new A330 MRTT to assist in the US evacuation of Americans and Afghans from Kabul. The RSAF A330 MRTT can carry up to 266 passengers or 37,000kg of cargo or be used to refuel USAF aircraft.
(a) "I'm here in Singapore as a reaffirmation of our commitment to our membership in the Indo-Pacific region, our longstanding partnerships with Southeast Asia and a longstanding relationship with Singapore as it relates to our issues and our mutual issues on security and economic strength and development and now increasingly global health," said VP Harris.​
(b) "What matters is how the U.S. repositions itself in the Asia Pacific, engages the broader region, and continues to fight against terrorism, because that will determine the perceptions of the countries of the U.S. global priorities, and of its strategic intentions," said PM Lee. As with Biden’s visit in 2013, part of the job of Singapore’s PM is to use his vast experience and the country’s resources to try to make any American VP on an official visit look good. The press conference with VP Harris ends with 4 questions taken, three on Afghanistan, which there was perhaps no avoiding. Affirmation of US-Singapore ties and the US commitment to the Indo-Pacific region was the point of the trip, and it showed across the remarks.​
(c) At the joint press conference, it was announced that a 20 Aug 2021 MOU on cooperation in cyberspace with the US DoD on was signed by LG Melvyn Ong with Admiral John Aquilino (PACOM) and General Paul Nakasone (CYBERCOM) to institutionalise cyber cooperation between the two defence establishments.​
(d) A reporter from the New York Times asked about what are the specific conditions it would take to get a quarantine-free arrangement in Singapore for the US and other countries with high vaccination rates. PM Lee said “the US is one of the countries which we will be pursuing these conversations with.” He added that the opening of borders also depends on what can be worked out between Singapore and another country so that there will be safety measures in place such as pre-departure testing, vaccination certificates, testing on arrival and quarantining of an individual if necessary.​
(e) For context, the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore announced that fully vaccinated travellers from Germany, are no longer required to serve a stay-home notice when they arrive here. The “Vaccinated Travel Lane” will mean no quarantines either way, but will include 4 PCR tests: before travel, on arrival, on the 3rd day and on the 7th day of arrival. The 2nd country that will have the “Vaccinated Travel Lane” is Brunei. Vaxxed travellers from Brunei can apply to travel to SG, again with the 4 PCR tests. But because Brunei being bumped down to Category 2, no leisure travel.​
(f) After the press conference, VP Harris visited Changi Naval base to tour USS Tulsa (LCS-16), an Independence-class littoral combat ship. On 24 Aug 2021, VP Harris will deliver a policy speech and participate in a roundtable with the business community involving Singapore’s Minister for Trade and Industry Gan Kim Yong.​

7. Like Singapore, other American allies and partners are keen to show relevance and support for Biden. The Japanese have deployed a Kawasaki C-2 strategic transport aircraft and two Lockheed C-130 Hercules long range tactical transport aircraft operated by the Japanese Air Self Defence Force (JASDF). The C-2 plane is carrying equipment, supplies and a quick reaction force. Most of the troops will be based in the third country. Japanese diplomats were evacuated via a British transport to Dubai after the embassy in the capital Kabul was shut on 15 Aug 2021, but some Japanese working for international organizations remain there. The country’s Ministry of Defense has added a Boeing 777 to help evacuate the Afghans.

8. Current US policy is to prioritise reinvigorating partnerships with key Southeast Asian countries as part of its emerging Indo-Pacific agenda, with the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance released in March mentioning Singapore as being one of two key partners of focus within Southeast Asia (the other is Vietnam, Harris’ other stop). Compared to others, Singapore speaks from a position of strength as the country has upgraded its growth projection for 2021 to a range of 6% to 7% (from the previous 4% to 6%). With social distancing, compulsory masking, increased sanitising in-doors and a high Covid-19 vaccination rate, the country can execute plans to gradually re-open more of the economy. In contrast to the rest of ASEAN:

(i) 82% of Singapore’s adult population have been given vaccines, but despite this, 49 (or 0.1%) have passed away from complications due to Covid-19, including 12 fatalities in Aug 2021 so far. In addition, 65,528 (98.6%) of those infected have been discharged, with 903 active cases (1.4%) under medical care — including 7 in ICU. Last year, the Singapore Government donated US$O.5 million to WHO to aid in the fight against the coronavirus. Singapore also contributed 100,000 doses of Moderna vaccine to Brunei (population — 441,532) on 19 Aug 2020. The contribution is part of Singapore's bilateral cooperation with Brunei in tackling Covid-19.​
(ii) Singapore holds the view that “the US is investing the bandwidth and resources in the region, and show that it has substantial stakes and interests there to protect and advance,” said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong at the Aspen Security Forum on 3 Aug 2021. Singapore has also been an active participant in multilateral efforts—such as the US-led Global Health Security Agenda—to bolster the pandemic preparedness and response of low- and middle-income countries. It has contributed to international programmes to provide technical and medical assistance, and helped promote global health security as a national and global priority.​
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 3 of 3: The American Charm offensive

9. U.S. officials had not yet confirmed the latest reported Havana Syndrome case, and it did not involve anyone traveling with Harris, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki. In light of the reports, “there was an assessment done of the safety of the vice president, and there was a decision made that she could continue travel along with her staff,” Psaki said.

10. As part of the American Charm offensive:
(a) US Vice President Kamala Harris made a stop in Hanoi to see the first shipment of 270k vaccine doses (of the 1 million Pfizer doses U.S. announced) arriving in the city. Per VP’s office, the U.S. also delivered 500k doses to Ho Chi Minh City. The rest of the doses will be delivered shortly after.​
(b) the Vietnam Coast Guard's (Canh Sát Bien Viet Nam: CSBV's) request for a third ex-Hamilton-class, high-endurance cutter has received the endorsement of the Biden administration. The news was disclosed by VP Harris during her visit to Hanoi, Vietnam, on 25 Aug 2021. The CSBV operates a fleet of two ex-Hamilton-class cutters that were previously in service with the US Coast Guard. VP Harris repeats warning for China in meeting with President Nguyen Xuan Phuc: “We need to find ways to pressure and raise the pressure, frankly, on Beijing to abide by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and to challenge its bullying and excessive maritime claims.”​

10. Too many British, Americans and Pinoys speak with a colossally inflated picture of a universal Chinese threat, from which they have to retreat in the face of the facts. Often these ‘Brexit Supporters, Trumpians or Yellow shirts’ try to sneak an apocalyptic menace back in at the very end with an obligatory hint at Nazi Germany—a propaganda cliché so exhaustively mined that it could have come from the pages of Pravda in the old days. But this not a serious approach to the analysis of international affairs.

(a) I see the return of China as a superpower as the end the brief era of unilateral American hegemony. But this ahistorical and megalomaniac project was bound to end sooner or later; and if it is sooner, this is as much because of America’s own failures (aided by Britain) in Iraq, Libya and, most obviously at present, Afghanistan.​
(b) Today, China and Russia coordinate their policies in some areas but manage differences in others. Beijing has not cracked the whip to force President Vladimir Putin to toe China’s line on the Sino-Indian border dispute or in the South China Sea. Vietnam has been a major recipient of advanced Russian weapons without triggering angry tirades from Beijing. Nor has Putin attempted to force the Chinese to embrace Russia’s position on Crimea. Predictions that power disparity will limit Russia’s policy space have simply failed to materialize.​

11. Given that Vietnam’s security partner is Russia and its economic partners are China and ASEAN, American in-roads will be limited. On the eve of VP Harris' visit, Vietnam's PM hosted Chinese Ambassador, pledging that Vietnam "won't ally with one country against another country." China's envoy announced Beijing would donate 2 million vaccine doses to Vietnam. (Total CN donation 2.7m < 5m from US). The reason why Vietnam is so cautious — they share a land border with the rapidly modernising PLA.

12. VP Harris ended her Southeast Asia trip, by flying to Hawaii. While at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Harris addressed 25 members of the military who represented the six active duty service branches and National Guard. She and the second gentleman talked with each service member and thanked them for their service. In her weeklong trip to Singapore and Vietnam, she continued to make pointed statements against Beijing. Chinese officials have been responding in kind, including bringing up situation in Afghanistan.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

From Indonesian MinDef Directorate General Defense Strategy site. Article on 18th Indonesia-Australian Strategic Partnership workshop. Seems the agenda they are taking related on many Maritime Strategic co-op. The article also talk on increase the tempo on defense Strategic co-op related to mutual Strategic concern. Eventough doesn't naming someone, however it's clear the mutual strategic concern mostly related to China.

I put this as example how two countries that have up and down on their Strategic Partnership, both economically got more and more dependencies with either China market and Investment, however also facing increasing strategic defense concerned with China.

Contradictive situation that will continue to be faced for some time in the future.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Gap between Austin’s concept and ground reality — Part 3

9. During his Singapore lecture, the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J Austin has said the US is pursuing an “integrated deterrence” strategy in the Asia-Pacific region that will rely on stronger defence co-operation and enhanced co-ordination with allies and partners to better meet a range of regional challenges, including “the spectre of coercion from rising powers”.

10. What he did not say but was thinking of then, was that Australia is going to get access to the Rolls-Royce PWR reactor, to power its next generation of nuclear powered submarines —UK’s Astute class, upon which this is to be modelled, is powered by the Rolls-Royce pressurised water reactor (PWR 2) design, the Core H, which eliminates the need for refuelling. Biden’s joint announcement in part is about helping RAN to achieve this milestone in the 2030s to 2040s will assist in integrated deterrence.

11. We have to praise the Australians for reading the wind correctly, to get what they want from Team Biden — in a single step they can leap frog the Indian SSN program with Russia. The only risk is in execution of the Australian submarine build. The Australian Government will also acquire additional long-range strike capabilities for the Australian Defence Force (ADF). The effort to enhance the ADF’s ability to deliver strike effects across our air, land and maritime domains, include:
  • Tomahawk Cruise Missiles, to be fielded on Hobart class destroyers, enabling maritime assets to strike land targets at greater distances, with better precision.
  • Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (Extended Range) will enable Australian fighters, to hit targets at a range of 900km.
  • Long-Range Anti-Ship Missiles (Extended Range) (LRASM) for the F/A-18F Super Hornet.
  • Continuing collaboration with the United States to develop hypersonic missiles for ADF air capabilities.
  • Precision strike guided missiles for land forces, which are capable of destroying, neutralising and supressing diverse targets from over 400km.
  • Accelerating $1 billion for a sovereign guided weapons manufacturing enterprise – which will enable the Australians to create weapons on Australian soil.
h/t to Anthony_B_78

12. Lloyd also said during the 40th IISS Fullerton Lecture, which was organised by the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) that while deterrence remains the cornerstone of US security, emerging threats and cutting-edge technologies are changing the face and the pace of warfare:

“Integrated deterrence is about using existing capabilities, and building new ones, and deploying them all in new and networked ways … all tailored to a region's security landscape, and in growing partnership with our friends.​
We're aiming to co-ordinate better, to network tighter, and to innovate faster, and we're working to ensure that our allies and partners have the capabilities, the capacities, and the information that they need.”​
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
10. What he did not say but was thinking of then, was that Australia is going to get access to the Rolls-Royce PWR reactor, to power its next generation of nuclear powered submarines —UK’s Astute class, upon which this is to be modelled, is powered by the Rolls-Royce pressurised water reactor (PWR 2) design, the Core H, which eliminates the need for refuelling. Biden’s joint announcement in part is about helping RAN to achieve this milestone in the 2030s to 2040s will assist in integrated deterrence.

11. We have to praise the Australians for reading the wind correctly, to get what they want from Team Biden — in a single step they can leap frog the Indian SSN program with Russia. The only risk is in execution of the Australian submarine build. The Australian Government will also acquire additional long-range strike capabilities for the Australian Defence Force (ADF). The effort to enhance the ADF’s ability to deliver strike effects across our air, land and maritime domains, include:
  • Tomahawk Cruise Missiles, to be fielded on Hobart class destroyers, enabling maritime assets to strike land targets at greater distances, with better precision.
  • Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (Extended Range) will enable Australian fighters, to hit targets at a range of 900km.
  • Long-Range Anti-Ship Missiles (Extended Range) (LRASM) for the F/A-18F Super Hornet.
  • Continuing collaboration with the United States to develop hypersonic missiles for ADF air capabilities.
  • Precision strike guided missiles for land forces, which are capable of destroying, neutralising and supressing diverse targets from over 400km.
  • Accelerating $1 billion for a sovereign guided weapons manufacturing enterprise – which will enable the Australians to create weapons on Australian soil.
h/t to Anthony_B_78

12. Lloyd also said during the 40th IISS Fullerton Lecture, which was organised by the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) that while deterrence remains the cornerstone of US security, emerging threats and cutting-edge technologies are changing the face and the pace of warfare:

“Integrated deterrence is about using existing capabilities, and building new ones, and deploying them all in new and networked ways … all tailored to a region's security landscape, and in growing partnership with our friends.​
We're aiming to co-ordinate better, to network tighter, and to innovate faster, and we're working to ensure that our allies and partners have the capabilities, the capacities, and the information that they need.”​
| "As a result of the pact, Australia has scrapped a deal to build French-designed submarines.

France won a A$50bn (€31bn; £27bn) contract to build 12 submarines for the Australian Navy in 2016. The deal was Australia's largest-ever defence contract. " |

This means even more delay in the submarine construction program to replace the Collins Class. Also, a fleet of 12 SSNs will cost at least double than 12 conventional ones.

 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
This means even more delay in the submarine construction program to replace the Collins Class. Also, a fleet of 12 SSNs will cost at least double than 12 conventional ones.
This is not just a delay. It’s the cancellation of the existing Naval Group’s contract with penalties to be paid and the start of a new SSN program — that is not going to be for a fleet of 12. The Collins class will be kept in RAN service with another deep maintenance cycle.

The RAN can’t hire enough crew for 12 SSNs and they will struggle to train and crew 8 to 9 boats. With nuclear power, they don’t need so many boats.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
This is not just a delay. It’s the cancellation of the existing Naval Group’s contract with penalties to be paid and the start of a new SSN program — that is not going to be for a fleet of 12. The Collins class will be kept in RAN service with another deep maintenance cycle.

The RAN can’t hire enough crew for 12 SSNs and they will struggle to train and crew 8 to 9 boats. With nuclear power, they don’t need so many boats.
I don't know. I think that the RAN may find attracting crew for their SSNs easier than for their SSK boats. The SSNs are seen as the pinacle of submarining and the crew comforts are better than on SSKs. We'll have to wait and see.
 
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