SolarisKenzo
Well-Known Member
Yes it was an official seizure by the italian authorities.
China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.
- Thread starter ngatimozart
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- china geopolitics geostrategy prc
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Largest U.S. Drone Manufacturer Says It Will Need To Ration Batteries For Customers After Sanctions By China
Skydio CEO criticized the Chinese government’s sanctions, saying they were an attempt to “eliminate the leading American drone company” and boost Chinese drone suppliers.
www.forbes.com
Well Skydio should preparing themselves anyway. If US can sanction DJI, then China will retaliate sanctioning it's US competitor. However I put this not only talk on this drones trade battle, but put this as example how in my opinion Washington Politicians still think China supply chains on the condition of two decades ago.
That time, yes China supply chains still depends on foreign investors and foreign tech and patents. The condition on drones industry shown their supply chains basically already domestic control and using homegrown tech and patents.
The article behind pay wall so it paste it here:
Chinese sanctions hit US drone maker supplying Ukraine
Well when US weaponise trade sanctions first, do US officials and businesses still think China will not hit on their sanctions back ? Sorry on this time it is US that use it first and now complaining when China return the favour.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
China Has Bought Its Way To The Top Of The Manufacturing Industry. Where Does That Leave America?
American manufacturers waiting for their government to subsidize the industry in a way that matches Chinese support will be waiting a very long time.
www.forbes.com
This is for an Idea, why don't US do what they have done to their MIC, as now to their other Industry. Every industrial nation (whether establish or newly ones) are subsidizing their Industrial chains whether directly or indirectly.
If US close half of their overseas bases for example, that money can be use to support the dual function industry like the commercial drones above. Doesn't have to be direct subsidies, even China mostly don't do that. However with fiscal incentive and money market incentives, just some examples. They got tons of Ivy Leagues business schools graduates in financial market that can provide more subtle ways to subsidies the Industry.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
3 U.S. aircraft carriers to be in Asia during presidential transition
Navy sees China as biggest threat to political uncertainty during next 50 days, analysts say
asia.nikkei.com
Is this a sign what to come ? US Will be pivoting more to Asia Pacific rather then Euro and Middle East ? This is talk among transition period, and seems either some in US Inteligence worries about China move, or Pentagon wants to send massage or they all try inlining with what Trump wants.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
The Turkistan Islamic Party looks like a professional rebellion army, but to take up the arms against china is maybe too much.
Uyghur fighters in Syria vow to come for China next
For many years china is a creepy police state, but now it becomes more and more as frightening as in fictional worlds like Minority Report and Psycho-Pass.
China's High-Tech Spherical Security Robot Enhances Policing in Crowded Wenzhou Streets
Uyghur fighters in Syria vow to come for China next
For many years china is a creepy police state, but now it becomes more and more as frightening as in fictional worlds like Minority Report and Psycho-Pass.
China's High-Tech Spherical Security Robot Enhances Policing in Crowded Wenzhou Streets
Just wondering what the thoughts might be here:
Thinking of the painful trade and economic ramifications to China of the recent and on-going ‘trade war’ between the US and China, and the decoupling downturn in significant trade traffic in key markets.
*Could this current downturn in trade and its economic impact be seen as demonstrating ramifications beyond just military which would result from an initiating conflict around Taiwan and SCS?
*Might this current upheaval in trade markets show that even if confident in a ‘successful’ military action it would be isolating for China and devastating for its trade, its economy and its society. so therefore making the prospect of conflict less probable?
Perhaps there’s more intrinsic incentive in China to at least attempt to maintain a trading status quo?
Thinking of the painful trade and economic ramifications to China of the recent and on-going ‘trade war’ between the US and China, and the decoupling downturn in significant trade traffic in key markets.
*Could this current downturn in trade and its economic impact be seen as demonstrating ramifications beyond just military which would result from an initiating conflict around Taiwan and SCS?
*Might this current upheaval in trade markets show that even if confident in a ‘successful’ military action it would be isolating for China and devastating for its trade, its economy and its society. so therefore making the prospect of conflict less probable?
Perhaps there’s more intrinsic incentive in China to at least attempt to maintain a trading status quo?
I find it difficult to know exactly. the CCP is very tight lipped, but on the other hand there are many china youtube accounts which will pump out videos showing problems China has, such as it's marriage and children issues, masses of factories being closed, factory workers being fired and unpaid, uni graduates sleeping in train stations and high youth unemployment. Even now, before the tariffs, or a war, China has many hidden issues like last year cars, both ICE and EV's were being sold at a loss because things were competitive, and the chinese companies wanted to focus on keeping the factories functioning. There's too many to list here
This is just 1 example of such videos
Except that meekly accepting Trump's initial tariffs without responding would embolden him & be seen in China as a humiliating sign of weakness. We know that Trump is perfectly capable of tearing up a deal he's negotiated & demanding more: his current tariff mania includes the scrapping of deals he signed, claiming they were brilliant, beautiful, etc. Now he says they were agreed by morons. Doh! He's upped his demands in the current wave of lunacy when foreign governments have seemed to be willing to go along with them.
So, for China, the option of maintaining the status quo can only come about by Trump backing down.
Trump's tariffs are a rejection of the status quo, & unacceptable to China for multiple reasons. China feels they must be fought until Trump gives in & either backs down completely, or shows willingness to negotiate something reasonable - which would require US concessions on pre-Trump rules to get any Chinese concessions. China absolutely insists on being treated as equal. It will not accept a subordinate position.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Both US and China economically not in best possition actually to fight this trade war for long term. This trade war in the end bargaining and 'chicken' game. There're push from US for those nations that bargaining with them to significantly reduce or even cut Chinese supply chains in their own production chains.
This why China issue warning to those nations that's bargain with US toward cutting China supply chains. However it is likely (at least that's what I got from ASEAN nations that's currently in bargaining process with US), they (the ASEAN nation) have to prepared two different supply chains set (if this trade war continues). One exclude using Chinese ones for export products to US, and other still using Chinese ones for export products outside US.
Cutting Chinese supply chains is not efficient for long term production run. This move could result more expensive export products to US compare to export to others. Question now is what's the meaning of Chinese supply chain (from US perspective). Are this means supply chain that's produce in China or Supply chain own by Chinese Investors. The difference will be substantial.
Will this trade war going to switch to hot military war? Personally I still say no, but it will create two seperate production chains potentially on long term.
This why China issue warning to those nations that's bargain with US toward cutting China supply chains. However it is likely (at least that's what I got from ASEAN nations that's currently in bargaining process with US), they (the ASEAN nation) have to prepared two different supply chains set (if this trade war continues). One exclude using Chinese ones for export products to US, and other still using Chinese ones for export products outside US.
Cutting Chinese supply chains is not efficient for long term production run. This move could result more expensive export products to US compare to export to others. Question now is what's the meaning of Chinese supply chain (from US perspective). Are this means supply chain that's produce in China or Supply chain own by Chinese Investors. The difference will be substantial.
Will this trade war going to switch to hot military war? Personally I still say no, but it will create two seperate production chains potentially on long term.
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I agree, however it does bring into practical realisation the cost of trade embargoes, and perhaps by extension international isolation.
Even if China was militarily successful in Taiwan/SCS scenarios, would it then be reasonable to conclude it would be isolated internationally, diplomatically and in trade?
If so, could it actually survive in a way that might be regarded as positive?
What this trade war sham does incidentally demonstrate is a taste of the pain that would ensue.
Wondering whether that might be enough to dissuade any motivation to do so?
Even if China was militarily successful in Taiwan/SCS scenarios, would it then be reasonable to conclude it would be isolated internationally, diplomatically and in trade?
If so, could it actually survive in a way that might be regarded as positive?
What this trade war sham does incidentally demonstrate is a taste of the pain that would ensue.
Wondering whether that might be enough to dissuade any motivation to do so?