China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
There are plans to increase the import tariffs for products from china. Thanks to the current administration and specially the Minister of Everything, tens of thousands of factory workers from the garment industry have lost their job and the market is flooded with cheap chinese electric cars.
The EU plans to do something similar. Better late than never. But....

|"Beijing said then it would take "all necessary measures" to safeguard China's interests.

These could include retaliatory tariffs on exports to China of products such as cognac or pork."|

So the EU has to do this carefully.

 

SolarisKenzo

Well-Known Member
2 chinese-built Wing Loong II drones, including their control stations, were seized by the italian authorities on their way to Benghazi in Lybia.
The drones were hidden in 6 containers labelled as "wind turbines parts".
The 2 systems are very likely now being studied...
Not many details are known but we do have a couple of nice pictures.


View attachment 51451
After more accurate exams, several sources reports the drones are in fact FEI LONG I (FL-1) UAVs.
Waiting for official confirmations.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
There are plans to increase the import tariffs for products from china.

The exact/official word is increase duties to 7 commodities that being considered prone to unfair practices. Not single out any country of origin. Means any assessment of dumping or unfair pricing practices, from all 7 commodities can trigger increase duties for protection of local industries.

Off course most likely Chinese origin product can take much of the target. Whatever being call, Chinese become victims on its own industrial supply chains efficiency. Talking on subsidies bit 'hypocritical' as for most part, most Industrial nations done it one way or another. China just done it better, due in many parts because it's efficient industrial supply chains.

Auto cars especially EV at this moment can seems going to be goble by Chinese brands. However most of Chinese brands are relatively new. Yes some of them has leap forward in terms of quality (relatively to 10 years ago), but means there also going to be consolidation in Chinese market toward which one going to survive.

Chinese taking over the global export, or Chinese going to invest their production chains in the host countries. I personally suspect part of both.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group


The video from SCMP on how basically Chinese products supply 90% of all products and merchandise being use in Paris Olympics. From trinkets sold in gift shop, to the sports equipment in arena. This again shown despite the move by mostly Western Supplier's support by their Governments, Chinese Supplier's still control export market mostly due to their superior efficient supply chains.

I remember last week going to Jakarta Auto Show, and come to BYD booth accompany with an acquaintance of mine from Hyundai. Hyundai just release their Kona electric which already fully manufactured in their factory in West Java with battery also manufacture from their JV factory in Indonesia. Even with that, their Kona electric still AUD 6000 or around IDR 60 mio pricier then now still fully imported BYD equivalent.

We talk and wondering how BYD will price their product, when their factory in West Java (basically become Hyundai neighbors), which just ground breaking already operational later on. One thing that BYD excell with is the supply chains on production of electric motors, batteries and electric power transfers. Not saying Hyundai with already build infrastructure will lost the fight, but shown it will not be an easy fight.

Again shown that off sourcing from China will not means China will lossing their efficient supply chains edge.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Some more news about the latest Chinese tech advances. Needless to say, claims from the CCP/PLA /PLAN are suspect but as I have mentioned before, a huge pool of scientists and engineers (as opposed to accountants, lawyers, and liberal arts grads) working on numerous projects has to yield some advances….a 1.4 billion population does suggest more qualified people available to R&D and manufacture stuff.

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group


There is a realisation that you cannot be part of any major supply chains, especially in high technology products and certain areas like solar cells, EVs, where it is not possible for you to do anything without being part of Chinese supply chains," said Sushant Singh, lecturer at Yale University, who has also been a researcher for public policy think tanks in India.
I quoted that paragraph from the article, as the realization even within India, that despite all the effort so far from Modi's government, they are too like most of Asia still depends with China Industrial supply chains.

This can be called as ice cold wake up realism for those politicians especially in US, UK and part of Euro that strive for the call of Friendshoring. India already have more capabilities for domestic supply chains then most of Southeast Asia or Latin America. However even they are still dependent with China supply chain.

That's why despite all hostility toward China, all securities cautions against potential PLAN incursions in the Indies ocean, India still need China. Personally I see this as part of reasons why India keep stay strong with BRICS.

If India with all her size and industrial capabilities still can't shake China, still need to become part of Chinese supply chains, then imagine what ASEAN for example can do ? What Mexico or Brazil or Argentina can do ? This is one of big reasons for most Global South consciously still keep strong engagement with China, despite they know well increasing US and West hostility and rivalry toward China.

The talk to disengage with China, Friendshoring is only can reduce disengagement. In fact many in market call it as 'cosmetic' disengagement with China.

Because if most Global South that now become main parts of Friendshoring can't disengage from China. Then can those in US and part of West that call disengagement from China, can afford to disengage from Global South ? Because that's what it need for total disengagement from China.

This is part of realism of increasing Multipolar world order that emerging for this last two decades. The supply chains of world industrial engines and tech dependency are actually big part of what makes it happen.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
China is not only lucky to have a lot of natural resources like coal, iron and manganese, but it is also our own fault that china has become a economical worldpower. Its just an accumulation of decades of enormous investments, transfer of technology and moving the production of almost everything to china.

Combined with the fact that china is not a democracy and doesn't have any problem to steal other's IP, it will take again decades for the world to disengage from china.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
is also our own fault that china has become a economical worldpower
I personally now have doubt on this. Decade ago I also believe that China rise due mostly from Foreign Investment and tech transfer. However tech transfer doesn't guarantee tech innovation.

China RnD drive, their drive to make efficient supply chain for this last decade, in my opinion is the main reason to their rise as Global Supply Chain prominence. There're countries that also got FDI, Tech Transfer and building their own chains. India as the article above one of main example. However their continue depending on China Supply Chain also shown that China efficient chains is their own effort and not foreign investment effort.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
I see your point. I have been bemoaning our (USA) stupidity in squandering trillions on useless things over the past 30+ years instead for R&D.. My opinion may not be popular here, but ... what if we had instead spent all those trillions on R&D and our own infrastructure? We might be light years ahead of China and sitting pretty (militarily as well as economically). It seems to me that China has chosen the wiser route, as much as it pains me to say it. And yes, their supply chain prowess is quite impressive.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I see your point. I have been bemoaning our (USA) stupidity in squandering trillions on useless things over the past 30+ years instead for R&D.. My opinion may not be popular here, but ... what if we had instead spent all those trillions on R&D and our own infrastructure? We might be light years ahead of China and sitting pretty (militarily as well as economically). It seems to me that China has chosen the wiser route, as much as it pains me to say it. And yes, their supply chain prowess is quite impressive.
Not sure how many trillions have been squandered but certainly several. Agree, infrastructure is one item and the second would be sorting education. What's left over, fusion and quantum technology research.
 

Catalina

Member
As the recent pager attack killing and injuring over 4,000 shows, you can't trust your life with out sourced production runs and supply chains.
Decouple from the Chinese Communist Regime.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
As the recent pager attack killing and injuring over 4,000 shows, you can't trust your life with out sourced production runs and supply chains.
Decouple from the Chinese Communist Regime.
I saw one report claiming the pagers were built under license in Hungry, a company called BAC.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
EVs are in the news now but it will be aerospace that should really raise the alarm bell!
Aerospace supply chains Will not be as easy as the others supply chains for China Industry to catching up. It is supply chains that determine more on metalurgical tech, something that China still behind.

At this moment Chinese Airliners like ARJ-21 and C919 still depend much with Western Supply Chains. Unless China and Russia can swallow each other prides and ego's and try to really co-op in better term, rival Aerospace Supply Chains that can challenge Western Aerospace Supply Chains dominance will not emerge. At least not in near mid term. However if both can effectively co-op better, then next decade Aerospace Industry landscape can be much different then present ones.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Given China’s espionage capabilities and its huge industrial base, I think Russia is becoming increasingly irrelevant except for oil and some mineral imports. Guessing China has at least 3-5 times the number engineers and scientists that Russia has.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Aerospace Supply Chains from North America vs Euro Zone in smaller scale also represent by China and Russia. China have larger market and aero industrial base compare to Russia, even at present base.

However they need each other, just like North America and Euro supply chains need each other. They might be in competition, but in same time need each other supply chains to make them selves efficient.

China will take much longer time to catch up with Western Supply Chains without Russia. Like it or not this war rejuvenate Russia civilian aero supply chains, and China need them to help them develop their own Independent from Western Supply chain, if geopolitics rivalry keep on this trend.

Western powers knowing well they still have leads against the potential of Chinese Aerospace Supply Chains. They will keep that as much as possible within their control. Sourcing to East, Southeast and South Asia Will keep the supply chains in their control, compare to source the chains through China. That's part of friedshoring.

However unlike Friedshoring in other sector and Industry, Chinese own Aero supply chains are relatively less mature compare to other industry. They don't need Chinese supply chains to keep competitive and efficient in Aerospace.

In short, from all other Industry, Aerospace especially Civilian Aerospace supply chains still Chinese Achilles heel. We can see that on level in Chinese leads on any supply chains as barometer. They still relatively much dependent with others on Aerospace ones. Yes they will outpace Russia in Aerospace, but like North America chains that already outpace Euro ones, they need each other if they one to build alternative Aerospace supply chains toward Western ones.
 
Top