China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[Ananda]

‘Tidal wave’: How 75 nations face Chinese debt crisis in 2025

Developing countries to pay a record $22bn this year, mostly linked to loans from China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

www.aljazeera.com

Is it Debt or Investment strategies ? In the video the Tongan official seems certain any debt repayment with China can be negotiate. This is different with what others believe on impending Chinese Debt Trap.

Chinese debt usually align with the Investment from their private sector. Some in market already see the patern where same Chinese Financial Instutions finance infrastructure Debt and Investment on private sectors.

There are indications the infrastructure investment financing payment schedulle being renegotiate, while Chinese Private sectors continue dominating the trade. If in the end those infrastructure debts being reschedulle or even got some discount financing payment, but on other hand private sector financing shown good results, the same financial institutions will regain all their credit financing payment on overall.

China then regain diplomatic good will by shown "reasonable" investment financing scheme. In the end host country infrastructure being develop, but the chinese private sectors investment also flourishing and get biggest price. I do suspect the real aim is the later one.

 

[Ananda]

Why Washington’s call for Asia to buy more American arms falls flat

National interests here are shaped more by domestic imperatives and long-term pragmatism. Read more at straitstimes.com. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

Put this as ST can be said shown quasi official opinion from Singapore. In short the article basically say that increase on defense toward 5% will not be heading by US allies in region, let alone other Asians.

1. Most Asians see the level of skirmish in LCS and Taiwan issue as worying but not justifiable enough for 5% GDP for Defense,
2. Infrastucture and improving basic economics environment more important,
3. China being seen more as Trade and Investment partners, rather then imminent threarts as US or Western Euro put.

Thus most Asian want to engage both sides and altough increasing defense happen in region, but not at the level of what US wants. Most in Region come to Shangrilla meeting, but also attend forum that being lead by China.

The tone that US give at this moment, especially by Trump trade tariff are in fact more concerning for most Asians then China threats rhetorics Hagseth try to envoke to the regions. The costs of US defense items then alternative within region also going to be factors that determine whether to buy US Defense Exports.

Something that reflect condution with Russia also, Asia going to make their own policy.

 

[hauritz]

Why Washington’s call for Asia to buy more American arms falls flat

National interests here are shaped more by domestic imperatives and long-term pragmatism. Read more at straitstimes.com. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

Put this as ST can be said shown quasi official opinion from Singapore. In short the article basically say that increase on defense toward 5% will not be heading by US allies in region, let alone other Asians.

1. Most Asians see the level of skirmish in LCS and Taiwan issue as worying but not justifiable enough for 5% GDP for Defense,
2. Infrastucture and improving basic economics environment more important,
3. China being seen more as Trade and Investment partners, rather then imminent threarts as US or Western Euro put.

Thus most Asian want to engage both sides and altough increasing defense happen in region, but not at the level of what US wants. Most in Region come to Shangrilla meeting, but also attend forum that being lead by China.

The tone that US give at this moment, especially by Trump trade tariff are in fact more concerning for most Asians then China threats rhetorics Hagseth try to envoke to the regions. The costs of US defense items then alternative within region also going to be factors that determine whether to buy US Defense Exports.

Something that reflect condution with Russia also, Asia going to make their own policy.

America of course would benefit in arms sales but realistically all that money may buy you a few weeks worth of bombs and missiles. When you run out of weapons and spare parts you might turn to the United States and find they will have no spare capacity to replace any of your war stocks. Japan, South Korea and to a lesser extent Australia either can, or will, eventually produce at least some of their own weaponry.

Ultimately these smaller nations might not be able to contribute much to an air or sea war. They would be best served building up their land forces because I have my doubts as to whether China would really want to become involved in another Asian land war.

 

[Ananda]

these smaller nations might not be able to contribute much to an air or sea war.

My Chinese desk colleugues have a say on interpreting how Chinese Politics behave. They say China was and is Chung Kuo and Chung Kuo will always behave like Chung Kuo.

In sense Communist China is behaving in the core mind set like Imperial China. Imperial China even in the last two dynasty (Ming and Qing) limit themselves from land battle/conquest outside their imidiate border.

Cheng Ho/Zheng He Fleet was the pinnacle of Imperial China fleet. In their time, they are more interested to secure their trade lines, throughout East-SouthEast Asia, Indies Ocean, Middle East and East Africa. They are not interested to colonise outposts, even though they have superiorities in fleet strength at that time.

In sense this is shown in behaviour of present day PLAN. Skirmish in LCS more and more become game of possitioning with potential to become bargaining chip checkers board. The claim base on historical lines in SCS related to trade lines that being set up from Zheng He times.

So yes, the thinking seems with most of Asian nations is how to engage China in trade while bargaining with them toward securing trade lines. Bargaining more on sea and air shown why latest procurement from many Asian Nations also on that area.

Ukraine war also shown the importance on ammo supply independences. For that Indonesia also increase the investment on ammo productions. All part on the strategy to secure prolong defense capacities.

Thus I agree with you, China so far and even historically do not shown interest to involve on Land War outside their immidiate border. Chung Kuo from imperial times more interest to bargaining possition for secure trade lines. Taiwan is part of their immidiate border, thus they are more willing to wage land war there. However South East Asia and beyond raise doubts if China want to venture on land war. This is why behaviour of Asians against China differr then Euro against Russia.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Taiwan's top China policy body, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), on Friday said Hsiao Bi-khim's motorcade was surveilled and followed in a ploy to be rammed during a visit to the Czech Republic in March 2024.

Citing a Czech intelligence agency report, the council said staff from the Chinese Embassy in Prague were behind the incident.

Taiwan VP says not intimidated after alleged China plot

This was during a visit to Czech in March 2024, but if this really would have happen, and the staff of the chinese embassy were caught, it would have been a serious and shocking incident, but also very emberrassing for communist china.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Taiwan VP says not intimidated after alleged China plot

This was during a visit to Czech in March 2024, but if this really would have happen, and the staff of the chinese embassy were caught, it would have been a serious and shocking incident, but also very emberrassing for communist china.

There's no safe way to crash your car into someone else. Even if the vehicles were protected diplomatic vehicles, they would have crushed any pedestrians if they came off the road and potentially killed people in normal cars that got involved. That wouldn't have been embarrassing, it could have triggered violent protests.

 

[swerve]

A few years ago staff of the Chinese consulate in Manchester physically attacked people demonstrating in the street outside the consulate. They dragged one into the grounds & beat him up.

It was videoed by a few people. There was absolutely no doubt about what happened. The consulate said that protestors had entered the grounds & attacked staff, who acted in self defence but video & witnesses (including local police) were consistent: the violence was entirely by consulate staff.

The attckers included the Consul General, who stated on camera that it was his duty to drag the protestor into the consulate grounds by the hair, because he had abused China & its leader.

If that's how senior consular staff act & speak publicly, openly abusing their diplomatic immunity & engaging in brawls, it's not exactly hard to imagine them plotting such things as allegedly planned in Czechia.

Manchester police demanded that diplomatic immunity be waived & six officials (including the consul-general) present themselves for questioning. Instead, China recalled them.

 

[Ananda]

India's Modi to visit China for first time in 7 years as tensions with US rise

NEW DELHI: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit China for the first time in over seven years, a government source said on Wednesday (Aug 6), in a further sign of a diplomatic thaw with Beijing as

www.channelnewsasia.com

Effect on Trump attacking Modi seems shown results. Modi now willing to meet Xi in China, something that after Pakistan and India skirmish is close to unlikely happening. Modi knows well that Xi will always support Pakistan. Thus this will not make them allies.

However it will make India more acceptable toward China relationship. Potentially making more amandable toward Xi regional presence in Indian ocean. Which is definetely not in US interest.

Trump action against BRICS founding members can be understandable toward Xi and Putin. Can understand he is picking South Africa due to Ellon whispering before. Can also understand picking largest and most powerfull South American due to his aim helping his buddy Bolsonaro against Luna. However what's the benefits picking Modi? Trying to pick Putin and patting Zelensky?

India is the last bastion in South Asia against China influence. Perhaps Trump deep down acknowledge that China accendences in Asia is unstoppable? If it is why he is keep talking on Asia-Pacific as US priority? Trump always doing erratic things, just wait and see how he want to rebounce after this in South Asia.

 

[Redshift]

India's Modi to visit China for first time in 7 years as tensions with US rise

NEW DELHI: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit China for the first time in over seven years, a government source said on Wednesday (Aug 6), in a further sign of a diplomatic thaw with Beijing as

www.channelnewsasia.com

Effect on Trump attacking Modi seems shown results. Modi now willing to meet Xi in China, something that after Pakistan and India skirmish is close to unlikely happening. Modi knows well that Xi will always support Pakistan. Thus this will not make them allies.

However it will make India more acceptable toward China relationship. Potentially making more amandable toward Xi regional presence in Indian ocean. Which is definetely not in US interest.

Trump action against BRICS founding members can be understandable toward Xi and Putin. Can understand he is picking South Africa due to Ellon whispering before. Can also understand picking largest and most powerfull South American due to his aim helping his buddy Bolsonaro against Luna. However what's the benefits picking Modi? Trying to pick Putin and patting Zelensky?

India is the last bastion in South Asia against China influence. Perhaps Trump deep down acknowledge that China accendences in Asia is unstoppable? If it is why he is keep talking on Asia-Pacific as US priority? Trump always doing erratic things, just wait and see how he want to rebounce after this in South Asia.

There is little to no point trying to second guess Trump.

 

[Ananda]

CNA Video on the equipement that PLA shown at 80th Victory Parade in Beijing. Seems a lot off new equipment being shown, especially the anti drones systems, but also their new drones. With lot off regional and neighbours leaders coming to this military parade, China certaintly use this as not only shown what they are capable off but also potential marketing campaign.

Add full version from Chinese TV.

 

[hauritz]

CNA Video on the equipement that PLA shown at 80th Victory Parade in Beijing. Seems a lot off new equipment being shown, especially the anti drones systems, but also their new drones. With lot off regional and neighbours leaders coming to this military parade, China certaintly use this as not only shown what they are capable off but also potential marketing campaign.

Add full version from Chinese TV.

Pretty impressive. Hypersonic glide vehicles , XLUUVs, drones, anti-drones sytems, autonomous land vehicles, anti-satellite weapons, and a range of weapons that are only being seen for the first time. Certainly sending a message to the West. Actually not sure what Putin is likely to think of all this.

 

[Feanor]

Pretty impressive. Hypersonic glide vehicles , XLUUVs, drones, anti-drones sytems, autonomous land vehicles, anti-satellite weapons, and a range of weapons that are only being seen for the first time. Certainly sending a message to the West. Actually not sure what Putin is likely to think of all this.

It reminds me of Russia's 2015 parade when all those new vehicles were shown off. Let's see how much of this is real and will enter service.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

It reminds me of Russia's 2015 parade when all those new vehicles were shown off. Let's see how much of this is real and will enter service.

Quite. Also Xi had better hope those missiles aren't "fuelled" with water as a result of another batch of ministers and military personnel diverting part of the budget into their bank accounts.

 

[John Fedup]

It reminds me of Russia's 2015 parade when all those new vehicles were shown off. Let's see how much of this is real and will enter service.

Indeed, but I suspect China’s parade may be more real given their economic and production capabilities.

 

[StingrayOZ]

Quite. Also Xi had better hope those missiles aren't "fuelled" with water as a result of another batch of ministers and military personnel diverting part of the budget into their bank accounts.

Russias war has made authoritarian leaders more aware of this corruption. The fact it was identified and openly talked about may mean they have worked to address the issue. China would have been watching the recent failures in Russia and NK and would seemingly be of aware of the possibilities.

India, China and Russia all getting along is probably the big take away. Given there is genuine tension between India and China, over their own border and Pakistan, the fact they are all getting along seemingly well is concerning. It means China probably doesn't feel like India is going to move against it, if China did something that made the west very unhappy. And India would probably, possibly help it to move out around sanctions. Much like its doing with Russian oil currently.

Indeed, but I suspect China’s parade may be more real given their economic and production capabilities.

I think there is ever reason to believe they are real. China's economy is booming. The two countries could not be in more different economic states. 54% of russian trades are in Chinese Yuan. China spends 3 or 4 times as much as Russia on defence, even with russia spending 16% of GDP and surging expenditure during the war. China defence budget has been 10 times for most of the last decade over Russia. Thats not including Chinas significant R&D dual use tech and civilian and manufacturing capacity, which are the largest in the world.

 

[John Fedup]

Russias war has made authoritarian leaders more aware of this corruption. The fact it was identified and openly talked about may mean they have worked to address the issue. China would have been watching the recent failures in Russia and NK and would seemingly be of aware of the possibilities.

India, China and Russia all getting along is probably the big take away. Given there is genuine tension between India and China, over their own border and Pakistan, the fact they are all getting along seemingly well is concerning. It means China probably doesn't feel like India is going to move against it, if China did something that made the west very unhappy. And India would probably, possibly help it to move out around sanctions. Much like its doing with Russian oil currently.

I think there is ever reason to believe they are real. China's economy is booming. The two countries could not be in more different economic states. 54% of russian trades are in Chinese Yuan. China spends 3 or 4 times as much as Russia on defence, even with russia spending 16% of GDP and surging expenditure during the war. China defence budget has been 10 times for most of the last decade over Russia. Thats not including Chinas significant R&D dual use tech and civilian and manufacturing capacity, which are the largest in the world.

Indeed, China is is vastly bigger player except for perhaps nuclear weapons which won’t last long. They are now approaching the 1945 USA, at least in manufacturing capacity if not technology capacity but even that is debatable. Even worse, the US education system doesn’t favour science and engineering. Accounting, lawyers, and the Jesus crowd now run the show.

 

[StingrayOZ]

Indeed, China is is vastly bigger player except for perhaps nuclear weapons which won’t last long. They are now approaching the 1945 USA, at least in manufacturing capacity if not technology capacity but even that is debatable. Even worse, the US education system doesn’t favour science and engineering. Accounting, lawyers, and the Jesus crowd now run the show.

China has enough nuclear weapons. It probably has the best non-US delivery systems. It has enough nuclear weapons to trigger a MAD response. Any more is just a waste. China wants to be efficient. Unlike other states, China's conventional forces are pretty significant in size and capability. There only other peer, is the US. While Russia struggles to operate single digits of IOC 5th gen fighters, China has approaching 500 FOC J20s. China has full sized carriers in a production line, multiple 5th gen aircraft, most of the world drones, come from china. Most of the Ukrainian war drone tech, comes from China on both sides. These aren't just one off wonder weapons.

China is tends to focus on STEM. They want to be at the same or better technological edge as the US. China's manufacturing capabilities long term have challenges, but currently they are world leaders in pretty much every category. That's not an accident, they have specifically prioritised that for more than a quarter of century, in catching up with the west at almost any cost. Now they are rich enough to buy entire western companies and technologies. While not quite cutting edge, they make up with bringing mass production online quicker. So while the US may have a slight technological edge, China hopes to close that in manufacturing more and faster to FOC.

As would be expected. China makes up about 30% of global manufacturing. About as much as US and Europe combined. So this isn't unstainable for them.

 

[John Fedup]

Approaching 500 FOC J-20s, don’t think I have seen any info on that!

 

[StingrayOZ]

Approaching 500 FOC J-20s, don’t think I have seen any info on that!

Well numbers are hard to say. They were aiming for 500 by the end of 2025.
They are making 70-100 a year.
They had ~250 in 2023. Its entirely possible they will have something around that number by 2027. So significantly more than the 14 or so SU57, which are basically flying prototypes and not a FOC. Pilots are getting flight hours, updates and upgrades are ongoing.

Russian fleets are shrinking, Chinese are expanding. China probably operates a much bigger fleet of J11 than Russia does of SU27s. So even in the realm of flying old soviet designs, China is bigger.

Janes | OSINT Webinar - Mighty Dragon - China's expanding fleet of next gen J-20s

The Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has equipped additional combat units with the Chengdu J-20 'Mighty Dragon' fifth-generation stealth fighter.

www.janes.com

China Is Building A Massive Fleet of J-20 Stealth Fighters

The long-held US military assumption of air superiority faces significant challenges, particularly from China's rapidly expanding J-20 stealth fighter fleet.

nationalsecurityjournal.org

Chinese Parade Emphasizes Operational Fifth-Gen Fighters

The massive Chinese Victory Day military parade emphasized operational fifth-generation fighters and showed new drone types.

www.airandspaceforces.com

China "Outproducing" U.S. In Fighter Jets; Can "Deny" Air Superiority In First Island Chain: Top Commander

After building the world’s largest maritime fighting force, China has gained a 1.2 to 1 production rate advantage over the US in fighter jets. Together with modern fifth-generation combat aircraft and advanced ‘long-range’ air-to-air missiles, Beijing can prevent the US from achieving air...

www.eurasiantimes.com

China Plans 500 J-20 Stealth Jets By 2035-38, Should India Consider Su-75 Checkmate Till AMCA Arrives

China will roll out 500 J-20 fighters by 2025, should Indian Air Force buy Su-75 checkmate, Su-57 felon before AMCA arrives

www.eurasiantimes.com

My point is people often conflate Russia's economy and China's as somehow similar. They aren't. Russia's military industrial complex is old, under funded and relies on low numbers of wunder weapons to provide relevance, while mostly being made up of old, soviet gear, dating back to WW2.

China on the other hand has purged almost all of its older Soviet gear. It complex is brand new generally. It generally has disregarded soviet concepts in weapons and weapon platforms. Nearly all of its equipment is new, and locally produced, from current factories. Older stuff is destroyed or sold on. China doesn't really want to operate or stock stuff it doesn't make.

There are still certain technologies China has difficulty with, but they are being overcome. Engines, integration, networking etc. Mean US cuts production numbers and capacity.

 

[Ananda]

are still certain technologies China has difficulty with, but they are being overcome. Engines, integration, networking etc.

Don't underestimate China, this is what we in Financial Institution already see in past two decades. We see mounting problem loan in China Banking, we see problem in property sector really push down consumer confidence and thus consumer purchasing power. However we see sign on rebound despite all the problem that usually already enough to make other economies goes to recession.

China business strategy actually is brutal. They relied on their production output and then flooded the market. That's strategy is not just harming producers in other market, but also their own producers. Cutt throat pricing competition that happening in their EV market is just one example. The Chinese government try to put some restrain on that, but not entirely disband the practice. They let their own market fight, to get stronger companies win. It is survival of the fittest by design.

However this make production Level soars and stregthen their supply chains. This is happening not just in commercial market, but also defense market. Dual purpose tech being developed by most suppliers in order to make sure comercial and defense production being kept on economics scale.

This is also what happened in their credit market, those who lost competition become problem loans, and provide increase in problem loan. However the winners provide solid loans performance where basically give enough margin to their Financial Market to ansorb those problem loans. The government also push the winners to absorb the loosers assets in order to keep productivity level.

This give them margin to keep RnD and their Universities churn out STEM and Business graduates to keep level of RnD continuation. Yes they are copying other people tech and design. However that make them also gained experiences to develop their own. Those who make good copy means they are on step behind to develop their own better version. So don't underestimate the tech that come out from this strategy, their recent EV and PHEV Cars already shown that. The prepare types for each market, something that established automotive players now strugling to keep up. Even the mighty Toyota now has to change tact.