China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

Projectman

New Member
I only just now discovered this, but apparently China and India have been skirmishing this month up in the Roof of the World.



Like lots of other things China has done lately since the Coronavirus, it feels very much way too aggressive for what the PRC normally does, which makes me wonder how badly COVID shook the CPC's belief in their ability to control things.
Yup not good timing for India as the corona cases here are going up steadily, though the death rate is still around 200 per day. Most of India is slowly waking up from 2 months of a pretty strict lockdown and the economy was at a complete halt.
You have to give it to the Chinese that they are target oriented and dont care at all about niceties or outside perceptions , like the world is in shambles and China might have had a large role in it.
This is the 3rd action in a string of recent external actions by the Chinese, the HK law , sinking of a vietnamese boat in april by ramming it and this incursion.
In the Indian context , India and China share a 3000 km border which is mountainous & mostly contested. But no bullets fired since 1967. Their is a written agreement that no weapons , etc will be used & disputes will be settled by talk. Their is a unmanned area between the LACs.
But chinese practice something known as salami slicing . Since their are no constantly manned posts across the whole 3000 km border , 1000s of their troops will just creep forward a km across their LAC, every few years or so and start building roads behind them. And claim it as Chinese settled territory.
Indians have started returning the compliment in the last few years and now clashes have erupted where their incursion is detected. A few weeks ago hundreds of Indian and Chinese troops were injured in a clash, only shoving or rods are used.
India has a hot border with pakistan from the eighties in kashmir, where artillery duels are common. In the summers the snow melts and Pakistan starts pushing terrorists in , while providing cover fire.
India is very wary of opening another hot front with the Chinese as the military asymmetry with the Chinese is quite great.
All in all not the best neighbourhood with Pakistan in north west and china in north and north east.
The talking heads in the media and tv feel that this time the incursion is more serious and chances of military conflict is their.
Only thing China fears is usa and as soon as trump made his offer to mediate between the 2 countries, they became very defensive. But India does not trust the Americans based on past experience and feel it will just stir the pot to further its conflict with China. Though personally I feel India should announce some sort of pact with usa . This will give us access to the latest weapons, training and most importantly intelligence. Because these incursions always seem to take India by surprise and we are mostly rushing troops to these areas , rather than meeting them half way.
This time India might not have a diplomatic option if it wants to maintain the status quo.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It appears the situation is escalating. After a nasty confrontation between Indian and Chinese soldiers, both sides are ramping up their military presence in the region, but China especially appears to be deploying mech infantry to the area. Both sides have deployed advanced Flanker variants. The Chinese have also deployed AEW and JH-7s.

 

Projectman

New Member
Actually the last attachment above shows Indian jets over ladakh last week. Both mirage 2000 and sukhois from iaf were photographed from the Indian side after Chinese helicopters were observed a week back.
The talks between generals on the LAC failed yesterday as the Chinese want India to stop construction of a border road and India asked them to take a hike and has diverted more manpower to the road construction.
One thing interesting from Indian viewpoint is that the Russians are again siding with the Chinese in their media output. Will remind them of 1962 when the Russians called Indians friends and Chinese brothers .
As I was saying this time the no bullets policy will probably fail as India has diverted its bofors 155 mm guns to that area and Chinese are building up troops on their side of lac. It will build up slowly and then erupt when India tries to throw out Chinese from the no man's land area they have occupied or India does a tit for tat occupation in some other part of the lac.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I came across this article about an agreement between Argentina and China. A pathetic example of throwing away sovereignty to ease debt burden caused by massive incompetence. This should be a warning to many other nations in a similar boat.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Some footage of Indian T-72s and T-90s arriving in the area.


Also some footage of Chinese troops on the move.


A video of Chinese and Indian troops staring each other down.

 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member

The Keynote Essay in the Human Rights Watch 2020 Report.

Simply chilling is all I can think of .... it is an eye opening read and fills some gaps in my knowledge. This is the reality of what we are dealing with.
 

aussienscale

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
3 Indian soldiers killed in a border clash with China, casualties on both sides, initial reports saying the deaths were caused by throwing stones at each other !!


And just to throw in, North Korea not to be outdone either, strange move !!

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
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3 Indian soldiers killed in a border clash with China, casualties on both sides, initial reports saying the deaths were caused by throwing stones at each other !!


And just to throw in, North Korea not to be outdone either, strange move !!

Yep read it on Al Jazeera about an hour ago and both have also been picked up by Kiwi media. Sounds like they really went for it. Methinks may have been more than rocks and batons involved. Maybe a bayonet and /or combat knife or two.

On the NK one, this is the second time that Kim Yo-jong has made and been credited with such a high level decision. Earlier she had made a statement giving a warning to South Korea saying that strong action would be forthcoming. I am wondering if they are paving the way for her succession to the top job. Preparing the masses etc.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
1. Since 2012 India has ramped-up the construction of border roads and reorganised its order of battle in the zone for faster deployment of troops to protect it’s interpretation of the LAC, over China’s. Amid the standoff, India has decided to move an additional ~12,000 more workers to the region to help in completing Indian infrastructure development. The first train with over 1600 workers left Jharkhand on 14 June 2020 for Udhampur, from where they will go on to assist India's Border Roads Organization at the Sino-Indian border.

2. Within India, the Modi government has hoisted its own petard because of its hyper-nationalist rhetoric. Recently, India sought to restore the status quo as on April 2020 end, before the face-off at Pangong Lake instigated an escalation in Ladakh which lead to a massive deployment of forces by both the nations. Reportedly, India also asked China to reduce its mobilisation near the Galwan valley and that the troops must be sent back to their respective locations. Meanwhile, the Chinese delegation demanded India to stop its road construction. However, India maintained its stand saying that the construction was taking place inside the LAC, therefore there is no reason for China to object the roadwork.

4. Thus far there were 12 rounds of failed commander level talks and three major general-level talks between both the countries about the current tensed tussle between the two armies. The reality that territorial boundaries can be recast through many ways – wars being the most violent of them.

5. India’s boundary disputes are in part a legacy of British colonialism. In Ladakh, it is also a stark legacy of India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru. Under him, India pursued a “forward policy”, setting up boundary posts in the late 1950s that could scarcely be sustained. The Modi government has not only inherited the disputes on the Himalayan frontier, it has also compounded them. The maps issued after the 5 August 2019 re-structuring of Jammu and Kashmir into two separate union territories – one claiming all of PoK and another claiming all of Aksai Chin, re-stated by Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Parliament – riled up China.

6. LAC incidents in the recent past are mainly fist fights but this is much more serious, with at least rocks thrown and poles used as weapons. Both sides suffered casualties. It is a good thing that the Chinese press have not reported on the official number of PLA casualties — which means they want to de-escalate tensions, if possible.

7. The last time the PLA killed Indian soldiers was in 1975 at Arunachal Pradesh when four Indian soldiers of the Assam Rifles were ambushed.

8. The Chinese denied this and blamed India for the 1975 incident. A U.S. State Department cable from 1975 noted India’s view that the “Chinese ambush was sprung 500 metres south of Tulung La” and took place on Indian territory. It quoted a senior Indian military intelligence officer as saying on November 5 the border there was very clear, marked by a distinctive shale cliff. He said China had moved up a company to the pass and detached a platoon which erected stone walls on India’s side of the pass, and from there fired several hundred rounds at the patrol.
 
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Projectman

New Member

OPSSG , Your version very closely matches the Chinese version. But recent events dont exactly paint a very peaceful picture of the Chinese.
The Chinese had already invaded tibet in the early 50s and had built a road in the disputed aksai chin area to bolster its claims.
The Indians found out about the road in 1958. The so called forward policy was already being practiced by the chinese , by creeping forward in remote areas and building roads and other infrastructure to stake their claims.
Nehru was a pacifist who said that Indian army should be disbanded as our police is enough . Luckily it wasnt but it was ignored till the 62 conflict.
The Chinese philosophy is that we can build on our side of the LAC but India shouldn't. Ofcourse India wont stand it.
Calling modi hyper nationalistic while conferring the peace prize on Chinese actions is a bit rich.
The Chinese have used the present corona crisis to breach their LAC and sit on the common middle ground with 1000s of soldiers. Can we call Xi hyper nationalistic ?
And nice of the Chinese not to want to escalate after killing 3 men and possibly more. Noble of them.
I realize this site has the Chinese defense forum as a sister site but lets have some semblance of neutrality from the mods.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
OPSSG , Your version very closely matches the Chinese version. But recent events dont exactly paint a very peaceful picture of the Chinese.
No, I only cited Indian sources. So not sure how my citing of Indian reporters leads to a Chinese view point?
The Chinese philosophy is that we can build on our side of the LAC but India shouldn't.... India wont stand it.
Agreed. Both are free to disagree and it’s is called balance in reporting both positions — but I do not have to pretend there is some equivalence between India and China. China is very assertive.
Calling modi hyper nationalistic while conferring the peace prize on Chinese actions is a bit rich.
An Indian source said it. Link provided in the post.
The Chinese have used the present corona crisis to breach their LAC and sit on the common middle ground with 1000s of soldiers.
Both sides have deployed troops and China instigated this round, as the PLA is keen to hold on to Galwan River Valley. It held talks with the Indian military 3.5 km inside Indian-claimed territory, well west of the LAC. With the mountain tops on either side of the Galwan River occupied by the Chinese, the PLA is dominating not just the Galwan River, but – at its junction with the Shyok River – the crucial Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi (DSDBO) highway that connects the army’s so-called Sub-Sector North (SSN) with the rest of Ladakh.

Indian Army and Indo-Tibet Border Police (ITBP) situation reports (sitreps), intelligence reports and satellite photos show that PLA troops have not pulled back even in areas where Indian troops have been deployed to physically block further Chinese ingress.
And nice of the Chinese not to want to escalate after killing 3 men and possibly more. Noble of them.
Please grow up. There are plenty of Indian sources that is critical on Indian spin control. But it is far worse than it seems. Not only is the casualty count on the Indian side is significantly higher than what the initial reports stated; many Indian soldiers were captured and then released. An Indian major still being held by the Chinese.
There is context and the context is that China does not want it escalated further to shooting and are still open to further rounds of discussions. Likewise India is engaging in Jaw-Jaw.
I realize this site has the Chinese defense forum as a sister site but lets have some semblance of neutrality from the mods.
If you can’t take the heat on moderately critical reporting on Indian government actions and resort to baseless claims and personal attacks, feel free to stop posting here. You will not be missed.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I realize this site has the Chinese defense forum as a sister site but lets have some semblance of neutrality from the mods.
You are free to disagree intelligently with opinions posted. However you can not make personal attacks, especially against moderators. Adjust your approach.
 

Projectman

New Member
An Indian source said it. Link provided in the post.

Both sides have deployed troops and China instigated this round, as the PLA is keen to hold on to Galwan River Valley. It held talks with the Indian military 3.5 km inside Indian-claimed territory, well west of the LAC. With the mountain tops on either side of the Galwan River occupied by the Chinese, the PLA is dominating not just the Galwan River, but – at its junction with the Shyok River – the crucial Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi (DSDBO) highway that connects the army’s so-called Sub-Sector North (SSN) with the rest of Ladakh.

Indian Army and Indo-Tibet Border Police (ITBP) situation reports (sitreps), intelligence reports and satellite photos show that PLA troops have not pulled back even in areas where Indian troops have been deployed to physically block further Chinese ingress.

Please grow up. There are plenty of Indian sources that is critical on Indian spin control. But it is far worse than it seems. Not only is the casualty count on the Indian side is significantly higher than what the initial reports stated; many Indian soldiers were captured and then released. An Indian major still being held by the Chinese.
There is context and the context is that China does not want it escalated further to shooting and are still open to further rounds of discussions. Likewise India is engaging in Jaw-Jaw.

If you can’t take the heat on moderately critical reporting on Indian government actions and resort to baseless claims and personal attacks, feel free to stop posting here. You will not be missed.
Typical thin skinned reply and threats of banning if faced with a contrary viewpoint .
Quoting a person like Ajay shukla , a well known government baiter does your credibility no good.
Are you of chinese heritage ? A truthful answer would be welcome.
Saw you reporting Chinese propaganda word by word in the wuhan virus thread.
But i guess i wont get it and this post will be deleted.
Important to know where the mods come from and why is this site a sister site of sino defence ?
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
This site is very critical of Chinese policies & actions. It is also critical of the governments of other countries, often including those of the people criticising. Expecting uncritical acceptance of everything said & done by your government - & your government alone - is ridiculous.
 

ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Typical thin skinned reply and threats of banning if faced with a contrary viewpoint .
Quoting a person like Ajay shukla , a well known government baiter does your credibility no good.
Are you of chinese heritage ? A truthful answer would be welcome.
Saw you reporting Chinese propaganda word by word in the wuhan virus thread.
But i guess i wont get it and this post will be deleted.
Important to know where the mods come from and why is this site a sister site of sino defence ?
Your resort to identity politics is disgusting and has no place on this forum.
Heritage plays no part in civil discourse.
Feel free to disagree but make your counter arguments by having respect for those participating.
 
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old faithful

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Well, now it is 20 Indian soldiers dead, the Chinese have not released numbers of their casualties, yet. One of the Indian soldiers was a Lt Colonel.
So what happens now? Will it escalate further?

 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Well, now it is 20 Indian soldiers dead, the Chinese have not released numbers of their casualties, yet. One of the Indian soldiers was a Lt Colonel.
So what happens now? Will it escalate further?

Hopefully, it will fizzle out.

For many in India, Modi stoked national pride by talking very tough on Pakistan, India's rival by daring to conduct the 2019 Balakot airstrike. To the uninformed in India, this is seen as a success, despite losing a MiG-21 and having the pilot captured. But this tough talk narrative cannot be sustained against a more powerful county like China, as Indian think tanks also point out.

If the narrative is not managed well, Modi’s domestic supporters can hinder a sensible settlement with China to defuse the tension.
 

old faithful

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
To be fair, it does look like the Chinese government has taken advantage of the Covid situation, and become an overt international bully.
The world will be a very different place post covid 19.
I also think (and hope) that particular confrontation might fizzle out, but the ramifications will not.
Trade will be different for sure, and I think a lot more scrutiny will be placed on any trade deals with China before contracts are signed.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
To be fair, it does look like the Chinese government has taken advantage of the Covid situation, and become an overt international bully.

The world will be a very different place post covid 19.
1. Watching China grow more powerful is a worrisome thing for its neighbours. I don’t see this as because of CORVID-19. It is much worse than that — as their hardliners feel entitled to kill or create a mass casualty event to suit their narrative.

2. Unlike the Indians, the CCP does not even need to deliver a ‘win’ for their domestic narrative (in terms of making wild claims). They just need a distraction or two.

3. 17 injured Indian soldiers reportedly died due to lack of in-time rescue provided to the wounded. The Indian Army may lack sufficient golden hour medical evacuation and support capabilities at plateau. A fact that Col (retired) Ajay Shukla was likely aware of but constrained to say clearly, in his Twitter feed at that time. The fact that Projectman so casually disrespects a senior retired army officer is reflective of the need for Indian public opinion to stay sober.

4. As far back as 2010, Ajay Shukla wrote about the challenges facing the Border Roads Organisation (BRO). As roads push into more rugged and underdeveloped areas, the pace of construction slows because of the logistical difficulties of transporting labour, plant and materials. To speed up construction, the BRO has indented for Mi-17s that can lift loads of 4 tonnes and land at helipads as high as 18,000 feet. But the IAF’s fleet of Mi-17s is fully committed in ferrying supplies to the Indian Army’s high-altitude posts and has declined assistance. In this respect, the IAF’s acquisition and arrival of 15 CH-47F Chinooks in Mar 2019 should help augment the lift available. Just one CH-47F on standby in the correct sector could have saved 24 Indian soldiers in one sortie.

5. This time PLA soldiers are digging defences, preparing bunkers and deployed artillery guns to the rear (albeit in their own territory) to support the intruders, said sources. The PLA intrusions into Ladakh is not a localised event, being spread across 2,000 km. That suggests centralised coordination at the higher military and political levels. If the Indians escalate, it will play right into CCP hands and the outcome will not be acceptable to the average Indian, as the PLA has spent years planning for a fight. Their infrastructure is their side is ready to support a rapid troop movement.
I also think (and hope) that particular confrontation might fizzle out, but the ramifications will not.
6. The mindset is more like the Johnson South Reef Skirmish that took place on 14 March 1988. The PLA(N) perfectly willing to gun down Vietnamese troops attempted to erect the Vietnamese flag on the reef. The PLA(N) filmed the skirmish and consequently produced a historic documentary called "314" meaning "March 14" .
 
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