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Discussion in 'Geostrategic Issues' started by ngatimozart, May 12, 2019.
Well handled by all
I / we, look forward to your next post Traveller.
No probs, thanks and you are allowed pudding.
look like Trump gonna use his power to blacklist Huawei. so much for free and competitive market. is trump really scare one company and willing do anything to cripple it. Huawei has been there for decades, only with its 5G, trump decide to go after it.
Tech stocks slide on US decision to blacklist Huawei and 70 affiliates – TechCrunch
Three Ascendant Red Dragon Questions...
(1) If America was losing/lost a naval war with the Chinese Communist party so that Ameircan bases were destroyed in the Western Pacific and American surface ships were driven from the Western Pacific, would America engage in nuclear warfare against Chinese forces?
If America engaged in nuclear warfare with the Chinese Communist Party:
(2) is America's submarine force capable on its own of tracking and destroying all of the PLAN's 6 Type 094 Jin class nuclear ballistic submarines before they launch their JL-2 SSLBM?
(3) Can America protect itself from the Chinese Communist Party's ICBMs?
Why the noun CCP instead of PRC? Whilst the PLA swears allegiance to the CCP etc., any actions are as a nation state hence the PRC.
In an open conventional conflict between them, both the US and the PRC would have red lines where they would resort to the use of nuclear weapons once those red lines were crossed. What those red lines are we don't know and can only guess. If it did escalate to nuclear combat with battlefield nukes, there would be little stopping it becoming all out strategic nuclear combat between the PRC and the US. The has a limited number of (known) warheads compared to the US, which has enough warheads to initiate second and third strikes against the PRC, effectively turning it into a radiation hazard zone. However, the bear in the mix is how Russia would react is the big question and that at present an unknown.
10 -15 years ago I would have said that yes, the USN ASW forces would have been quite capable of tracking and sinking the PLAN SSBNs, because they were reasonably noisy. However in the intervening years PLAN SSBNs have become quieter, hence harder to track. ASW is a dark art that requires more than just a SS or SSN tracking a SSBN in order to achieve a kill. The hardest part is actually finding said SSBN in order to track it. Very much easier said than done.
At the present point in time, the US does not have an effective homeland ABM system. It is working on one but such a system is costly and at present their hands are tied because it also so is prevented by one of the SALT treaties with the USSR / Russia.
An article which raises the possibility that the PRC is going to threaten to stop exports of rare earth minerals to the US. If an actual export ban happened, this would have devastating short to medium term impacts upon the US at many levels. Even the threat to do so will be bad enough.
China Raises Threat of Rare-Earths Cutoff to U.S.
Reuters: Exclusive: Pentagon races to track U.S. rare earths output amid China trade dispute
The Pentagon is rapidly assessing the United States’ rare earths capability in a race to secure stable supply of the specialized material amid the country’s trade conflict with China. I note that PRC tried it on Japan but alternative sources was found by the Japanese within a few months. In response to a growth in competition, China dropped the price of rare earths significantly, after. This current approach will result in a short term spike in prices but we should remember that China had levied duties and implemented quotas on exporting rare earth elements since 2006.
China had reduced its export quotas by 40% in 2010, sending the rare earths prices in the markets outside China soaring - this demand resulted in alternate non-Chinese supplies and rare earth mining companies in the US and Europe were able to raise capital, and in some instances publicly, through stock sales. Non-Chinese suppliers should thank them for the growth in this business. The issue is not supply meeting demand. IMO China and its SOEs are trying to profit from price spikes along with looking for leverage but their leverage is limited.
On the other hand, this action by China will eventually reduce the local pollution levels that are related to rare earth elements production. This is an emerging trend from 2010, which China should encourage by gradual steps, rather than their current approach.
Perhaps this is the inducement to really renew efforts on rare earth recycling of e-waste. This allows for reduced dependence on China and hopefully an overall reduced environmental footprint, a true win-win.
Looks like the other exporters of rare earth are set for a windfall, apparently Australia is the second largest exporter as well
8 Top Countries for Rare Earths Production | Investing News Network
Some might think the PRC have moved closer to Fascism than Socialism. I know fascism is a bit slippery in it's definition but the key features involve ultranationalism, single party state which is non democratic, authoritarian & militaristic; strong sense of historical grievance with equally strong sense of national destiny that evokes a nostalgia for the past, racism and intolerance of the 'other', a willingness to use violence to obtain domestic & foreign goals, a close relationship between the state and corporate entities. I think the PRC ticks most of those boxes.
I'm not sure I would regard the PRC as a 'failed' state either, though it's funny how the mighty PRC is scared of Wikipedia (banned in all languages in April) and the terrifying Winnie the Poo. (banned for eternity).
some true, most are not.
non democratic, authoritarian True. So does saudi, yet you never heard US badmouthing them like they did with China. Saudi invasion of yemen and consequence of civilian death doesn't bother trump at all. If it was china, it will be front page news everyday.
militaristic False, they spend less than 2% GDP on military, and hadn't a war in 30/40 years. US on the other hand has military conflict all the time and 4%GDP on defense.
Strong sense of historical Grevance True, so does SK, Israel, after what they been through, don't think any nation will forget that anytime soon.
National destiny No, China/India has been a economy power house for long time in the past, they just want to become something similar again, any major power have the resource they have will want that.
Racism and intolerance Generally speaking No, but there are always few bad apples in any countries, in fact chinese are very friendly to foreigner.
Use violence domestic, i'm assuming their treatment against dissent etc, True only for political/separatists basically anything that could jeopardize CCP power
Use violence for foreign goals, name one major power doesn't do that to smaller countries? at least they haven't bomb the crap of a country yet.
close relationship between state and corp, true for certain company, but not all, they are state capitalism. but recent event of ban Hauwei by Trump certainly put a new perspective on Trump and US company relationship, how easy to use national security to achieve Trump goals.
I beg to disagree, weapon.
Chinese GDP on defence is 2.3% and many believe much higher. The PLA is very, very intimately connected with business, so by design a very strong steak of militarism pervades the society. They are also obviously undergoing a huge military build up in term of capability, on top of already having the largest military in the world.
National destiny - I think you must of missed a bit about 'the Chinese century', Han destiny, the ownership of the south china sea, the various bellicose pronouncements by PLA and ex PLA soldiers. Also you under estimate how much the century of humiliation drives the PRC.
There is a very strong racial element, you will find articles in the Chinese press mentioning Han purity and often making very derogatory remarks about their SE Asian neighbours.
China has regularly resorted to violence domestically, making their citizens into hamburgers with tanks is perhaps the most memorable, but the extent of their persecution of the Uyghurs, Kazakhs etc is pretty close to genocide. Pulling organs out of political prisoners is a pretty gross example of violence domestically, some of those poor, vivisected souls are not even anaesthetised.
India, Tibet and Vietnam may disagree with you regarding PRC military adventurism.
You are right about Saudi Arabia (and other US allies) but it is irrelevant to the argument.
I take your point about 'state capitalism', perhaps it wouldn't take much for an American leader to tip the US to Fascism. Perhaps it's lucky Trump is not smarter.
even if its 2.3 its still much lower compare to US, also there is no fact to support its higher or not, just guessing. Even if its 4%, its still far off from US budget.
as for business, it has state business, and some large business such as ali, which may has ccp party within, but most med/small, and other business is privately owned. do you have some good link on this, not bias link but someone who actually study this?
i'm not under estimate about century of humiliation my wife is from there. They do remember the optium war etc, which they dont want to happen again, meaning they want to get stronger so it never happen. India also has ambition, any large/major power has that kind of ambition.
as for racial element, there are KKK in US, there are white supremacy radio station too, would you said US is racism? To generalize entire 1.4B base on few articles, thats really broad generalization. There are many chinese marry foreigner including africans. when ppl visit china, most people agree they are friendly. There will always be few nuts writing racism article etc whether in US or China.
I dont disagree on domestic violence against dissent. but these days its far less issue compare to 80s. My in-law actually badmouthing CCP in public place in china such as restaurant etc with his friend and other people. yet he still fine, if you goto weibo sometime you find post/article criticizing govt etc. Its only when things get alot attention and CCP belief it jeopardize their rule, then CCP start cracking down.
i dont know where you get all these pulling organ stuff, sound like falun gong propaganda to me. Though i agree in 90s, they do that to death role inmate after they been executed, but not today. (but this always been shaky since reporter has no way to report this without seeing it) . and almost all these news are coming from falun gong or its associate news outlet
as for tibet, its already done, and has been too long, just like israel occupy in gaza, there are more han chinese live in tibet than tibetan now.
India has border dispute with china true, but china has 14 neighbor, most have good relation with china.
The forum does not accept of tolerate politics, especially when you talk about falun gong propaganda and then insulting people by talking about "organ pulling". The last comment is not acceptable. For your information the PRC occupation of Tibet is not accepted as legal by many nations, so do not presume to that and other spurious claims.
DON'T START A HE SAID SHE SAID. If you have a problem with a Moderator's ruling take it up with that Moderator or another Moderator by Private Message NOT ON THE OPEN FORUM.
Is it safe to assume that every Chinese Embassy has MSS agents operating from it?
Yes as it would be for Intel operatives operating from every US, Russian, UK etc., Embassy / High Commission as well.
How can one find out more about the MSS and its activities in New Zealand and the South Pacific?