China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[weaponwh]

Why should they when the political landscape becomes to risky for them? They have decided that the risk is to great and are moving their manufacturing elsewhere. Also their operating costs in the PRC have subsequently risen over time so the political risks and that have driven their decision. Don't knock Indian expertise, because they have a quite well educated cohort.

i dont think china political landscape is risky for business at least right now. Most company still doing business there, its just too big market to be ignored. company move out mainly due to raising wages or local competition.
True India have alot educated ppl, but just like china most the talent ones, given the chance will move to west. Also there are alot corruption/bureaucracy in india more so than china.

china rely too much on its real estate as growth, and look like Xi plan to let Evergrande fail.

 

[ngatimozart]

i dont think china political landscape is risky for business at least right now. Most company still doing business there, its just too big market to be ignored. company move out mainly due to raising wages or local competition.
True India have alot educated ppl, but just like china most the talent ones, given the chance will move to west. Also there are alot corruption/bureaucracy in india more so than china.

china rely too much on its real estate as growth, and look like Xi plan to let Evergrande fail.

Yes I see that Xi is going to make an example of Evergrande. I would suspect that one or two directors may have a meeting with an executioner.

 

[John Fedup]

Our two citizens, illegally held for almost a thousand days are being escorted back to Canada by our ambassador. Time for junior to grow some balls and send the Chinese ambassador and his crew back to China. Enough is enough, time to begin the big severance and rid ourselves of them.
China frees Canadians Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig after Huawei boss released China frees Canadians Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig after Huawei boss released

 

[cdxbow]

Our two citizens, illegally held for almost a thousand days are being escorted back to Canada by our ambassador. Time for junior to grow some balls and send the Chinese ambassador and his crew back to China. Enough is enough, time to begin the big severance and rid ourselves of them.

Hostage diplomacy belongs back in the middle ages. Glad to hear the 2 Michael's are finally on the way home. Here in Oz we still have the writer, Yang Hengjun and the journalist Cheng Lei being held on dubious grounds.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Time for junior to grow some balls and send the Chinese ambassador and his crew back to China. Enough is enough, time to begin the big severance and rid ourselves of them.

Yeah, good luck with that.

Trudeau is probably going to draw a line under the whole issue. He certainly won't send the Chinese ambassador home, he lacks the determination to stand up to a country like China in that way. And to be fair to him there are still Canadians in China, so he won't want the whole thing to restart with new people.

The only question is whether he'll want to go back to the good old days of relations with China, or if he'll learn from this that Beijing can't be trusted so you need to work with other countries.

 

[John Fedup]

Yeah, good luck with that.

Trudeau is probably going to draw a line under the whole issue. He certainly won't send the Chinese ambassador home, he lacks the determination to stand up to a country like China in that way. And to be fair to him there are still Canadians in China, so he won't want the whole thing to restart with new people.

The only question is whether he'll want to go back to the good old days of relations with China, or if he'll learn from this that Beijing can't be trusted so you need to work with other countries.

Junior will will have problems trying to go back to the good old days. He has unhappy cabinet ministers who don’t like China and are pi$$ed at his stupid election call.

 

[John Fedup]

It certainly will be interesting to see if junior’s government takes a hard line against China and minimizes trade and communication after the hostage BS. Hopefully the answer is YES!! The usual commercial interests will whine about economic loss but I think China is going to feel some blowback from Canada. The Xi gang miscalculated and the anti-China lobby here will be energized (&ucking A IMHO).

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/spavor-kovrig-released-what-does-it-mean-1.6189814

 

[cdxbow]

This article from FP suggests the PRC is a 'peaking power' China Is a Declining Power—and That's the Problem (foreignpolicy.com) The authors feel that last centuries Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were in the same boat and that's what makes the PRC most dangerous in the near future.

 

[Boatteacher]

There has been a fiar bit of press recently about China cutting back, firstly on steel production and now on power output.
The story put put by China, which the press seems all to keen to repeat, is that it's to reduce pollution and CO2 emissions. Some have even linked it to clearing the skies for the 2022 winter Olympics, although recent increases in coal prices have also been noted as has the inability of domestic coal production to be expanded easily.

Really, in the light of the black outs, cuts in production and job losses this is causing, none of this makes sense in a country where social calm is paramount.

Is this really just China paying the price of the embargo against Australian coal and being unable to accept the sort of backflip that would entail.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Hostage diplomacy belongs back in the middle ages. Glad to hear the 2 Michael's are finally on the way home. Here in Oz we still have the writer, Yang Hengjun and the journalist Cheng Lei being held on dubious grounds.

According to china there is absolutely no connection between the arrest of the Huawei-woman and the two Canadians in hostage. That these two Canadians are released in less than 24 hours after the release of the Huawei-woman is ofcourse pure coincidence.

 

[John Fedup]

China saying there is no connection illustrates an absolute contempt for the rest of the world that doesn’t accept Xi thought. What many are speculating will happen sooner rather than later. To bad the West didn’t pick up on this a decade ago.

 

[ngatimozart]

China saying there is no connection illustrates an absolute contempt for the rest of the world that doesn’t accept Xi thought. What many are speculating will happen sooner rather than later. To bad the West didn’t pick up on this a decade ago.

Hostage diplomacy can work both ways. We know that the CCP doesn't have a high regard for human life, so maybe holding some of their foreign assets hostage might grab their attention.

 

[John Fedup]

Hostage diplomacy can work both ways. We know that the CCP doesn't have a high regard for human life, so maybe holding some of their foreign assets hostage might grab their attention.

A slippery slope albeit a step that is worth pursuing IMHO. The Canadian unfavourable view of China is now at 73%. Time for our government to start turning the screws on China as it will have no political downside. It will have minimal effects but if other countries join in it might make an impression.

 

[John Fedup]

Here’s an even more easier decision for junior to make…hasta la vista baby!

Canada's decision on Huawei 5G gear due in 'coming weeks' -Trudeau

Canada's decision on whether to ban Huawei (HWT.UL) 5G gear, as all the other members of the so-called Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network have done, is likely to be made in "coming weeks," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Hone C]

Here’s an even more easier decision for junior to make…hasta la vista baby!

Canada's decision on Huawei 5G gear due in 'coming weeks' -Trudeau

Canada's decision on whether to ban Huawei (HWT.UL) 5G gear, as all the other members of the so-called Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network have done, is likely to be made in "coming weeks," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

Also makes relocating an easier decision for Canadians currently in China to make prior to the Huawei decision, now that China has demonstrated it's commitment to hostage diplomacy.

 

[Ananda]

Bankrupt HNA's chairman and CEO taken away by Chinese police

Chen Feng and Adam Tan believed to be in custody, but no allegations revealed

asia.nikkei.com

Chinese police take away HNA chairman, CEO on suspicion of crimes

China's HNA Group, once one of the country's most acquisitive conglomerates, said on Friday that its chairman and its chief executive had been taken away by police due to suspected criminal offences.

www.reuters.com

Bit overshadowed by Evergrande, but few days ago Chinese HNA Group Chairman and CEO were both arrested on basis on 'ilegal' practice. Similar to Evergrande, HNA also already piling their debt related to their International acquisition.

HNA is the parent of Hainan Airlines, one of the fastest growing Airlines in China. The Airline despite including in Skytrax top 10 global Airlines, are already in financial trouble by early this year. It's also the largest private build and run Airlines in China.

Well China is cracking down their Billioners. It's glorious for you to be rich, but not if you get in to financial trouble or not in line with CCP expectations.

China corporation problem debt like I posted before, already being a concern from several years ago by Financial Industry. However COVID situation and what it seems property bubble burst, showing more the problem of debt that Chinese conglomerates are create off. In the end it will bit Chinese Banks more, and see how far CCP can covered the financial gap in the market as results. 1998 Asian Financial Crisis also begin with Debt Crisis. That time, it hit hards most of Asian Tigers and not China, as it's Economics development not fully run yet. Can CCP avoid the crumbling decks of corporate debts ? This will be interesting to follow

 

[ngatimozart]

Bankrupt HNA's chairman and CEO taken away by Chinese police

Chen Feng and Adam Tan believed to be in custody, but no allegations revealed

asia.nikkei.com

Chinese police take away HNA chairman, CEO on suspicion of crimes

China's HNA Group, once one of the country's most acquisitive conglomerates, said on Friday that its chairman and its chief executive had been taken away by police due to suspected criminal offences.

www.reuters.com

Bit overshadowed by Evergrande, but few days ago Chinese HNA Group Chairman and CEO were both arrested on basis on 'ilegal' practice. Similar to Evergrande, HNA also already piling their debt related to their International acquisition.

HNA is the parent of Hainan Airlines, one of the fastest growing Airlines in China. The Airline despite including in Skytrax top 10 global Airlines, are already in financial trouble by early this year. It's also the largest private build and run Airlines in China.

Well China is cracking down their Billioners. It's glorious for you to be rich, but not if you get in to financial trouble or not in line with CCP expectations.

China corporation problem debt like I posted before, already being a concern from several years ago by Financial Industry. However COVID situation and what it seems property bubble burst, showing more the problem of debt that Chinese conglomerates are create off. In the end it will bit Chinese Banks more, and see how far CCP can covered the financial gap in the market as results. 1998 Asian Financial Crisis also begin with Debt Crisis. That time, it hit hards most of Asian Tigers and not China, as it's Economics development not fully run yet. Can CCP avoid the crumbling decks of corporate debts ? This will be interesting to follow

I have been watching a series of videos on YouTube by a poster called China Observer and the claim made there is that in the case of Evergrande, Xi Jinping ordered its downfall by the withdrawal of bank credit facilities because it is a vehicle of a faction run by the family of his political enemies. From memory Jen Wenbaoi. The same with the Hainan Airlines because that is owned by the family who run another faction within the Central Committee who oppose Xi.

 

[Ananda]

the claim made there is that in the case of Evergrande, Xi Jinping ordered its downfall by the withdrawal of bank credit facilities because it is a vehicle of a faction run by the family of his political enemies.

It could be part of Political clan rivalry's, however it's also known even from last decade, that most Big Conglomerates in China has very large over leverage position. In short those groups are build too fast using Creditors money, which large part of it coming from Chinese State Owned (SOE) Banks. Thus eventough overseas money due matters on their development, however most of their debt actually coming from Chinese SOE (thus CCP money).

Changing China: How Beijing's crackdowns are impacting business

Businesses are under intense scrutiny as President Xi attempts to narrow China's wealth gap.

www.bbc.com

Eventough I'm not agree with most BBC assessment on market Economics, however on this article they got points:
1. This string of bankruptcy and debt problem can be good for future transparency on Chinese market,
2. Or, it can create much slow down with foreign players lose their confidence on Chinese market.

It can go both ways, or something in the middle. For us in Financial Industry, we are hoping changing attitude on Chinese big SOE Banks on their lending practices. This in turn can create more accountable Chinese Financial market.

Basically Chinese Billioners are too comfortable on using 'other people's money' as their expansion engine. Not that much different then any other Billioners in the West. However their accountability before are 'covered' by CCP. Whether now CCP cleaning their house or cleaning XI rivals, can be means both ways. After all those Chinese Billioners created also due to CCP factions support.

 

[ngatimozart]

Yes, but we do know that Xi Jinping has gone after his political enemies with a passion. These are the families and factions of Hua Gofeng, Hu Yaobang, Zhou Ziyang, Jiang Zemin, and Hu Jintao. He targets them through their supporters, faction members and economic assets and interests. These are political actions and cannot be assessed through an economic lense because they are not about economic policy, but are a pure CCP political action.

 

[cdxbow]

Our neighborhood bullies are showing their global reach, this time mighty Lithuania, after they found and publicized nasties in Chinese phones - China’s Economic Blackmail of Lithuania Could Backfire | The National Interest To me it looks like it's the usual, childish, belligerent, over the top and counter productive PRC response, basically consistent with current PRC behavior.

Software backdoors and 'secret chips' have been found on many different types of network/computer gear from the PRC. This report from 3 years ago made headlines at the time The Big Hack: How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate U.S. Companies - Bloomberg however it was known long before this that there were some odd additions to PC boards in some devices made in the PRC. Probably the 2013 story 'Your kettle my be spying on you' was one of the most memorable DON'T BREW THAT CUPPA! Your kettle could be a SPAMBOT • The Register

So I really have to laugh at the hypocrisy of the PRC, they get nasty and punish countries when they are unwilling to use PRC companies for gear when there is clear risk the devices are compromised. I expect Lithuania will give them the finger just like Oz did, but at much lesser cost.