Brazilian Naval Strength

[RobWilliams]

What do you think the chances are that brazil would sell some of these boats to Argentina .(hope not)

If you mean the Scorpene class subs, close to zero. Brazil only ordered 4 of them so not exactly enough to flog a few off, looking at an old DT article (9th Dec 2011) the first sub still has a fair amount to be done on it as they're still joining sections together, so it's highly unlikely they'll ditch some of their brand new toys before they've even got them.

If you mean the nuclear powered sub, Brazil is currently only building one. Which they would never sell, period.

EDIT: Looking at the link icelord posted, it says (in the "updates" section) that there was a Mercopress article saying Brazils aiming for 6 nuclear powered + 20 conventional powered submarines within the next 3 decades

 

[Todjaeger]

What do you think the chances are that brazil would sell some of these boats to Argentina .(hope not)

There is also the not so insignificant question of whether Argentina could/would afford to make such a purchase or sustain such a capability.

I am certain that Brazil would be delighted to become a naval system/vessel-exporting nation, as that can allow foreign orders to subsidize Brazilian naval industry, but those exports would be to make a profit. Except for Brazil and IIRC Chile, most of the South American economies are not in sufficient shape to purchase large new combat systems.

-Cheers

 

[KiwiRob]

There is also the not so insignificant question of whether Argentina could/would afford to make sure a purchase or sustain such a capability.

Agreed, with the current state of the Argentinian economy I very much doubt they could afford to buy an SSN, let alone afford to operate one. However the idea of an Argentine SSN being sunk by an Astute around the Falklands has some appeal

 

[swerve]

Last I heard, the Argentinean economy was riding high on commodity prices & exports to China. The current account surplus declined last year, but was still positive. The economy grew by 9.2% in 2010 & 8.9% in 2011. It's expected to slow this year, but to a rate which would still make Europe or North America green with envy.

The budget is roughly in balance (a tiny deficit last year, an equally small surplus in 2010). Taxes are low as a proportion of GDP, much lower than in, for example, the USA.

Oh, for such economic problems!

Inflation is high, & the government is lying about it, but that doesn't make Argentina unable to afford imports. There isn't an economic crisis, & won't be one unless the government does something very stupid. On past form, that could well happen, but it'd be a case of the government screwing up a very strong economy.

There's plenty of scope to increase military spending without straining either government finances or the economy. Freeze a couple of other areas of spending, or cap them at less than economic growth, & military spending (less than 4% of taxes) could be increased very fast.

 

[RobWilliams]

Last I heard, the Argentinean economy was riding high on commodity prices & exports to China. The current account surplus declined last year, but was still positive. The economy grew by 9.2% in 2010 & 8.9% in 2011. It's expected to slow this year, but to a rate which would still make Europe or North America green with envy.

The budget is roughly in balance (a tiny deficit last year, an equally small surplus in 2010). Taxes are low as a proportion of GDP, much lower than in, for example, the USA.

Oh, for such economic problems!

Inflation is high, & the government is lying about it, but that doesn't make Argentina unable to afford imports. There isn't an economic crisis, & won't be one unless the government does something very stupid. On past form, that could well happen, but it'd be a case of the government screwing up a very strong economy.

There's plenty of scope to increase military spending without straining either government finances or the economy. Freeze a couple of other areas of spending, or cap them at less than economic growth, & military spending (less than 4% of taxes) could be increased very fast.

Very good post, more people should read it, get rid of the whole "haha, Argentinas economys got all the prospects of a toilet duck" (OFAH reference) attitude.

IIRC isn't Argentinas defence budget being raised to 1.3% by 2015 then up to 1.5%? (Bearing in mind that only amounts to $5.5bn)

Looking at the Brazilian frigate options, it seems (from Wiki at least) that Brazil has a history of operating British frigates so maybe that's an indicator of sorts.

 

[RobWilliams]

Brazil have taken delivery of their first OPV from BAE Systems with the follow-on deliveries of the following 2 in Dec 2012 and Dec 2013 and still have the option for 5 indigninous builds in Brazil to follow.

Brazil Buying & Building BAE’s 90m Patrol Vessels

Brazilian Navy receives first OPV from BAE - Naval Technology

 

[RobWilliams]

Possibly they may already have good links with the RN developed in the support and handover of the various ships they have - and their most recent purchase was the three OPV's from BAE. You never know, if there's a useful ship on offer we might be in with a chance.

They do have Corvettes built with assistance from a German yard however so they're not totally averse to using non-UK sources.

Absolutely not, considering the work they've got going on with DCNS and I think they've got some German SSKs it'd be silly to think they'd only go for UK options, but IMO if they've had good experiences with British ships + systems in their frigate component then it'd probably be prudent at least to see what they've got to offer before they commit to FREMM.

I'm really interested to see what they're doing about their carrier, a few months ago in Warships there was a bit about them asking for information about it from "European shipyards".

IF they go this route (I know we don't know if they will or not, but sometimes speculation is fun), what d'you guys think they'll go for? Personally i'm going for DCNS' updated PA2 offering; 52,000t, conventionally powered, CATOBAR with a capacity between 30 - 40.

 

[1805]

Absolutely not, considering the work they've got going on with DCNS and I think they've got some German SSKs it'd be silly to think they'd only go for UK options, but IMO if they've had good experiences with British ships + systems in their frigate component then it'd probably be prudent at least to see what they've got to offer before they commit to FREMM.

I'm really interested to see what they're doing about their carrier, a few months ago in Warships there was a bit about them asking for information about it from "European shipyards".

IF they go this route (I know we don't know if they will or not, but sometimes speculation is fun), what d'you guys think they'll go for? Personally i'm going for DCNS' updated PA2 offering; 52,000t, conventionally powered, CATOBAR with a capacity between 30 - 40.

Changing designs can been expensive, they would be better off buying an off the shelf design, that they can physcially see. So the CVF should be a strong contender, they could go with CATOBAR conversion, I am sure the cost would be nothing like the figures quoted to the UK MOD. But if the role is closer to the LHA, helicopter operations will be as important as fixed wing capability, the F35b/CVF looks a compelling proposition. A PAAMS/Sampson & ASW Type 26 should be another strong proposition. If they need to see something, we can sell them a couple of T45 and backfill with a Type 26 fitted with PAAMS/Sampson. it's not as if the RN is maximising the space on the Type 45 hulls and we could make sure they fit A70 cells this time.

 

[RobWilliams]

I don't see them going F35B, the F35 was offered in the FX-2 and was rejected on the grounds that it won't get them the sort of industrial bonus the rest of the competition will so I highly doubt they'd pick it for naval aviation.

I know FX-2 is a joke of a program basically, the decision has been pushed back to somewhen in 2013, but IMO it'll have an influence. All options are there in CATOBAR platform (+ STOBAR in the Gripen NG) and if they have an eye on both FX-2 and a new carrier, they'll definitely link the 2 IMO.

I'd like to think CVF, but if BAE had got the nudge from Brazil about it they'd let everyone know.

Sell T45? No way, no way in hell and I wouldn't like it to happen. Some kind of AAW variant of the T26 for sure, but not a pair of T45.

 

[StobieWan]

Last I heard, Brazil was in talks with Fincantieri so they may be looking at a CATOBAR version of a Cavour, beefed out a bit perhaps ?

I'd definitely rule out F35 of any flavour - just doesn't tick any boxes in terms of local build, domestic involvement etc.

 

[RobWilliams]

Certainly seems more in their tonnage range, the Sao Paulo's c33,000 so a slightly bigger Cavour with 2 catapults seems reasonable. If they're trying to develop indiginous capability they might play it like China, taking an intermediate step into carrier aviation to see exactly what their requirements will be in the future.

Then the smaller carrier would favour the Gripen NG as - apparently - Gripen NG will be CATOBAR + STOBAR, come to think of it that'd seem to suit Brazil right down to the ground, probably large industrial benefit for quite a nice capability I reckon. The Gripen will be the first fighter to be integrated with Meteor I think + there's a decent variety of munitions for it. I could easily see that happening to be honest.

 

[1805]

I don't see them going F35B, the F35 was offered in the FX-2 and was rejected on the grounds that it won't get them the sort of industrial bonus the rest of the competition will so I highly doubt they'd pick it for naval aviation.

I know FX-2 is a joke of a program basically, the decision has been pushed back to somewhen in 2013, but IMO it'll have an influence. All options are there in CATOBAR platform (+ STOBAR in the Gripen NG) and if they have an eye on both FX-2 and a new carrier, they'll definitely link the 2 IMO.

I'd like to think CVF, but if BAE had got the nudge from Brazil about it they'd let everyone know.

Sell T45? No way, no way in hell and I wouldn't like it to happen. Some kind of AAW variant of the T26 for sure, but not a pair of T45.

I also doubt Brazil will go with the F35b, although it makes more sense for them, even allowing for their preference for local content, aircraft numbers are likely to be small. I think a CATOBAR or STOBAR CVF is also a good proposition.

A Type 26 with PAAMS/Sampson will have similar core capability to a Type 45, if they have A70 cells they wll be more flexible. If the sale assisted other orders it would be worth it,

 

[RobWilliams]

Chances are they might like to know what experiences the ACA has had putting the CVFs together, which is a possibility. But then on the other side it does seem pretty massive for their needs really, different requirements to the RN.

If a SAMPSON/PAAMS T26 was a reality, then by all means they can buy a couple of those and we buy a couple too. But I wouldn't advocate selling the T45 because the SAMPSON/S1850 are complementary and allows the T45 to be as good as it is, a single SAMPSON wouldn't be able to do the same workload as effectively.

 

[1805]

Chances are they might like to know what experiences the ACA has had putting the CVFs together, which is a possibility. But then on the other side it does seem pretty massive for their needs really, different requirements to the RN.

If a SAMPSON/PAAMS T26 was a reality, then by all means they can buy a couple of those and we buy a couple too. But I wouldn't advocate selling the T45 because the SAMPSON/S1850 are complementary and allows the T45 to be as good as it is, a single SAMPSON wouldn't be able to do the same workload as effectively.

I sure we can fit a S1850 on a T26. An off the shelf CVF is most likely cheaper than a bespoke/heavily modified design. India could have brought a new CVF for the cost of that old Soviet piece of junk....buyer beware!

 

[swerve]

Certainly seems more in their tonnage range, the Sao Paulo's c33,000 so a slightly bigger Cavour with 2 catapults seems reasonable. ....

Then the smaller carrier would favour the Gripen NG as - apparently - Gripen NG will be CATOBAR + STOBAR, come to think of it that'd seem to suit Brazil right down to the ground, probably large industrial benefit for quite a nice capability I reckon. The Gripen will be the first fighter to be integrated with Meteor I think ...

Fincantieri & Avio had design consultancy contracts worth tens of millions of euros for helping with the design of first Indian carrier, the new INS Vikrant. It looks like an enlarged (ca 40000 tons) Cavour, & has much the same propulsion. STOBAR, so it'd need some redesign for catapults, which Fincantieri has no experience of.

Gripen has been used for Meteor testing, necessitating integration. The head of the Swedish air force said some time ago (last year?) that if Sweden went to war next day, he'd immediately release the small number of Meteor in stock. As far as he was concerned, although not formally accepted into service, it was ready to be used.

 

[swerve]

I sure we can fit a S1850 on a T26. An off the shelf CVF is most likely cheaper than a bespoke/heavily modified design.

Fitting the full PAAMS system on a T26 would be very expensive, probably too expensive for Brazil to consider. To compete with FREDA or the AAW capabilities of the Italian FREMM, PAAMS-lite is more appropriate.

An off the shelf CVF restricts them to F-35B. That isn't currently being considered by Brazil. The Marinha doesn't want to give up cat & trap. It likes having fixed-wing AEW & COD.

Even if the CVF redesign costs aren't as high as claimed*, it's still a large & relatively expensive ship which would need to be heavily modified for cat & trap, & that would almost certainly be a lot more expensive than a souped-up Cavour.


*Imagine the embarrassment if that turned out to be true, & proved by an export sale! nfloorl:

 

[RobWilliams]

Fincantieri & Avio had design consultancy contracts worth tens of millions of euros for helping with the design of first Indian carrier, the new INS Vikrant. It looks like an enlarged (ca 40000 tons) Cavour, & has much the same propulsion. STOBAR, so it'd need some redesign for catapults, which Fincantieri has no experience of.

Gripen has been used for Meteor testing, necessitating integration. The head of the Swedish air force said some time ago (last year?) that if Sweden went to war next day, he'd immediately release the small number of Meteor in stock. As far as he was concerned, although not formally accepted into service, it was ready to be used.

That's true, but could you also then say conversely that considering that Fincantieri haven't had the experience with arrestor gear (considering Cavour is STOVL I think), I mean I get it's much more complicated integrating catapults but considering the sort of experience the Brazilian Navy has had operating them then would it ultimately be more difficult to do compared to a navy with no sort of experience in any form?

Then if they go STOBAR, then IMO the Gripen NG will be the choice.

I believe that's what was said, can't wait for them to be integrated on various other platforms.

 

[RobWilliams]

Fitting the full PAAMS system on a T26 would be very expensive, probably too expensive for Brazil to consider. To compete with FREDA or the AAW capabilities of the Italian FREMM, PAAMS-lite is more appropriate.

Agreed, I don't see them looking for anything like the capabilities PAAMS offers for the cost. I'd like a better radar than Artisan (whilst having the same rpm as SAMPSON, SAMPSON is 2 arrays back to back meaning an effective 60rpm compared to Artisans single array @ 30rpm) for that type of work and it's generally thought that - certainly from NATOs point of view - that a MFR working with a volume search radar is the preferred combination for AAW.

An off the shelf CVF restricts them to F-35B. That isn't currently being considered by Brazil. The Marinha doesn't want to give up cat & trap. It likes having fixed-wing AEW & COD.

Even if the CVF redesign costs aren't as high as claimed*, it's still a large & relatively expensive ship which would need to be heavily modified for cat & trap, & that would almost certainly be a lot more expensive than a souped-up Cavour.


*Imagine the embarrassment if that turned out to be true, & proved by an export sale! nfloorl:

Exactly, which is why I see what DCNS has to offer (smaller, conventional propulsion, CATOBAR) seems a more likely alternative to the CVF

 

[StobieWan]

Even if the CVF redesign costs aren't as high as claimed*, it's still a large & relatively expensive ship which would need to be heavily modified for cat & trap, & that would almost certainly be a lot more expensive than a souped-up Cavour.


*Imagine the embarrassment if that turned out to be true, & proved by an export sale! nfloorl:

If you were doing a new build, purpose built from scratch, taking CVF as a starting point, then it'd go to CATOBAR ops just fine - the costs were associated with all sorts of things like having 4/3 of a carrier in the shape of two part constructed carriers sitting around and having to rework hundreds of compartments to handle the changes. We'll know more next year when the whole sorry saga is laid out by the GAO. That plus the fact that the Brazilians would more than likely contract for steam catapults which we know are a lot cheaper to buy, if not to own means I can't see any problems with CVF working out fine for anyone who wanted to get into bed with ACA.

I don't find it very likely that anyone *would* pick up CVF though...

 

[StobieWan]

Agreed, I don't see them looking for anything like the capabilities PAAMS offers for the cost. I'd like a better radar than Artisan (whilst having the same rpm as SAMPSON, SAMPSON is 2 arrays back to back meaning an effective 60rpm compared to Artisans single array @ 30rpm) for that type of work and it's generally thought that - certainly from NATOs point of view - that a MFR working with a volume search radar is the preferred combination for AAW.

For export, I'm sure a customer would specify any of the multi panel AESA's available. You don't need a VSR to do an AWD role however - BAE have repeatedly said that SAMPSON can do the job and as far as I'm aware, FREDA doesn't carry one.

For BMD work, yep, you need the reach.