ADF General discussion thread

Stampede

Well-Known Member
All I see WRT various commentaries about the SSN's, is a lot of talking heads yapping like dingoes and none of them knowing any more that the average bloke and blokess on the street. The people who do know anything are firmly keeping their mouths shut as they should. Everything has been gone over and rehashed, especially on here, and it's becoming monotonous. Much the same with the B-21 posts.
"Blokess !"
Is that a New Zealand thing?
 

FormerDirtDart

Well-Known Member
Reading the article part gives away the meaning of the term "operate in the Australian AOR", Indicates that AOR would be Australian operational Responsibility or something of that nature. To be fair it is the best option on the table to fill any gap between the Collins and future Australian SSN even if it comes with the risk we may lose operational use of some boats time to time (Though as article states that would be in an emergency which we would likely already be siding with the US on). So far this option is the most realistic one that has been put on the table.
AOR means Area of Responsibility.
Yep, it's your crawl, walk, run before you get your own boats. Possibly a similar arrangement might be possible with the RN if they could be convinced to permanently base one SSN in Australia. A long shot but you don't know until you try.
That seemed to be what was announced this past summer (from RAN2.0 thread)
An interesting prospect.
While this could obviously be helpful for both navies involved. Support bot the RN's ambitions for operations in the indo-pacific theater, while also giving RAN personnel needed experience.
I can also see this as part of the overall sales pitch.
And I would in no way suggest that anyone should speculate (especially in written form HERE) what this could mean in certain aspects for future RAN procurement programs....
 

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
JAUKUS a possibility?
Marles and Wong have arrived in Japan after the AUSMIN talks in Washington and reportedly are pushing for Japan to join AUKUS. Australia and Japan are definitely increasing their Defence cooperation and a deployment to Japan of RAAF F-35s is planned for 2023.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
JAUKUS a possibility?
Marles and Wong have arrived in Japan after the AUSMIN talks in Washington and reportedly are pushing for Japan to join AUKUS. Australia and Japan are definitely increasing their Defence cooperation and a deployment to Japan of RAAF F-35s is planned for 2023.
Ahem no, not quite. Minister Marles said that it was far to soon to involve Japan in AUKUS. He said that AUKUS needs to be bedded in first and see where it goes technology wise before thinking about inviting Japan. The other and far more important point was the signing of the mutual forces agreement that allows for stationing of Japanese Forces in Australia and Australian Forces in Japan. This is the first time that Japan has signed such an agreement. Marles's intention is to have Japan involved in the next Talisman Sabre serial.

 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
Wouldn't be surprised if eventually happened. China are a potentially greater threat than the old USSR. While the USA always managed to maintain a technology and economic edge over the Soviet Union that is not a given with China.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Prime Minister Albanese has re-emphasised the importance of SSNs and stressed that a land war in Western Queensland is highly unlikely:

Heavy emphasis on self-reliance.

So have they finally defeated the last emu resistance in Western Queensland?
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
So long as they make a choice and start production I don't care what the initial order is.

This isn't about China or any particular nation, increased defence spending is a factor of the end of our benign strategic environment that existed following Suharto becoming Indonesia's president.

It was Indonesia becoming a genuinely non aligned country in 1968, at the same time as the various communist insurgencies wound down and the US became the unchallenged guarantor of our security, that enabled Australia to progressively reduce defence capability through the 70s until now.

What we have now is very different, we need to spend more, we need better value for money, and we need to build our collective security relationships with our friends and neighbours.
 

Morgo

Well-Known Member
So long as they make a choice and start production I don't care what the initial order is.

This isn't about China or any particular nation, increased defence spending is a factor of the end of our benign strategic environment that existed following Suharto becoming Indonesia's president.

It was Indonesia becoming a genuinely non aligned country in 1968, at the same time as the various communist insurgencies wound down and the US became the unchallenged guarantor of our security, that enabled Australia to progressively reduce defence capability through the 70s until now.

What we have now is very different, we need to spend more, we need better value for money, and we need to build our collective security relationships with our friends and neighbours.
Are you suggesting that Indonesia is a strategic threat? I’m not saying they’re not, but I hadn’t really considered the possibility post East Timor.

While we have our differences, I would’ve thought points of contention between us would be far more easily solvable by diplomacy than the differing world view we have with China.

Given they have all the right demographic characteristics for a major economic boom in the coming decades (which should in theory be a major windfall for Australia) if they end up hostile this would be extremely problematic for us.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Are you suggesting that Indonesia is a strategic threat? I’m not saying they’re not, but I hadn’t really considered the possibility post East Timor.

While we have our differences, I would’ve thought points of contention between us would be far more easily solvable by diplomacy than the differing world view we have with China.

Given they have all the right demographic characteristics for a major economic boom in the coming decades (which should in theory be a major windfall for Australia) if they end up hostile this would be extremely problematic for us.
What I wrote was that prior to Suharto becoming president Indonesia was perceived as the major strategic threat to Australia. Their move away from Soviet influence enabled Australia to reduce investment in defence.

Improving relations with Indonesia and the growth of other neighbours, resulted in a much more benign region and reduced need for defence spending.

China's growing influence and efforts to divide are forcing a revision of defence needs.
 
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Morgo

Well-Known Member
Can you read?

What I wrote was that prior to Suharto becoming president Indonesia was perceived as the major strategic threat to Australia. Their move away from Soviet influence enabled Australia to reduce investment in defence.

Improving relations with Indonesia and the growth of other neighbours, resulted in a much more benign region and reduced need for defence spending.

China's growing influence and efforts to divide are forcing a revision of defence needs.
I can read extremely well, and I don’t appreciate that tone chief. It’s entirely unnecessary.

What you said was that it’s not only about China or any country in particular, and then went on to talk about Indonesia. It is reasonable to conclude from what you wrote that you potentially consider both China and Indonesia (and others) to be strategic problems for Australia.

Your writing was unclear, hence the very civil clarifying question.
 

Aardvark144

Active Member
I can read extremely well, and I don’t appreciate that tone chief. It’s entirely unnecessary.

What you said was that it’s not only about China or any country in particular, and then went on to talk about Indonesia. It is reasonable to conclude from what you wrote that you potentially consider both China and Indonesia (and others) to be strategic problems for Australia.

Your writing was unclear, hence the very civil clarifying question.
I must come to Volkodav's defence. His statement in no way implies Indonesia is a threat, what was said was the Indonesia becoming a non-aligned country in 1968 along with other factors (insurgency winddown and the US influence) brought in a more stable environment for Australia - until now.
 

Morgo

Well-Known Member
I must come to Volkodav's defence. His statement in no way implies Indonesia is a threat, what was said was the Indonesia becoming a non-aligned country in 1968 along with other factors (insurgency winddown and the US influence) brought in a more stable environment for Australia - until now.
I don’t think anyone needs to come to anyone’s defence.

@Volkodav made a statement which could be interpreted as holding what, to me, is a contrarian view, which would very interesting to me. And if he did I would be interested in understanding the reasons why. That’s the whole reason I am on here - to learn.

The clarification that he didn’t hold that view was welcome. The attitude was not.

In any case let’s discuss more productive things shall we?
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I can read extremely well, and I don’t appreciate that tone chief. It’s entirely unnecessary.

What you said was that it’s not only about China or any country in particular, and then went on to talk about Indonesia. It is reasonable to conclude from what you wrote that you potentially consider both China and Indonesia (and others) to be strategic problems for Australia.

Your writing was unclear, hence the very civil clarifying question.
Paul Keating made a speech years ago where he referenced the billions Australia had been able to save on what would otherwise have been required for our defence. Specifically he mentioned Suharto's rise had stabilised the region and reduced the need to invest in defence.

The Soviets saw Indonesia as a potential destabilising element in the region, even though Sukarno and the various insurgencies and territorial expansions he was involving Indonesia in were more about nationalism.

Basically being friends with a more moderate Indonesia saved Australia a stack of money.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Just going to point out that Kevin Rudd is now lined up to be Ambassador to the USA. Smith Is getting the UK.

Which basically means, KRudds views are now Australia's views, and it seems he will now have some official say with the Americans. KRudd is a diplomat, IMO, this position I think is a good fit. He has influence with the Americans now. I wonder if he has feelings on the defence review, his comments on deterrent IMO are the strongest voice in Australia in increasing military capability for a specific reason and function. He has lived in the US for the past 10 years. AUKUS and Trump will be interesting points for him to deal with. Of course, China.. I wonder if he will make a China visit in combination with the Americans. Rudd also has significant influence with the Australian diplomatic corps.

Even Turnbull and Hockey has praised the appointment.

Not sure how I feel about Smith. Although this comes straight away after the defence review, so in the scheme of AUKUS makes some sense on collaboration. He is high profile enough, and he was already out of politics so its not a buy off position in that sense. I will try not to read anything into this before the Defence review is announced. His forign affairs and defence ministerial portfolios are relevant.

Defence review must be imminently expected. Hopefully will explain a few things going forward.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
In regards to possible lessons learnt from the Ukraine war the discussion of tactical use of drones by the A.D.F seems muted , the R.U.S.I had earlier suggested that because of the high attrition rate of large expensive drones in the Ukraine war that low cost ones would be important for other conflicts , there have been multiple online videos showing cheap drones dropping grenades or such accurately onto positions , is there information that the A.D.F has considered what changes it may need to make with this type of developing warfare
 

Morgo

Well-Known Member
In regards to possible lessons learnt from the Ukraine war the discussion of tactical use of drones by the A.D.F seems muted , the R.U.S.I had earlier suggested that because of the high attrition rate of large expensive drones in the Ukraine war that low cost ones would be important for other conflicts , there have been multiple online videos showing cheap drones dropping grenades or such accurately onto positions , is there information that the A.D.F has considered what changes it may need to make with this type of developing warfare
Apologies for quoting my own post but I found this a very helpful listen on this topic. In short, the effectiveness of drones may have been exaggerated by the Ukrainians for propaganda purposes.


The Russia Contingency: Revisiting Russian Air Performance in Ukraine - War on the Rocks

Very interesting discussion between Michael Kofman and a couple of RUSI analysts about lessons from the performance of the Russian Air Force to date (paywalled unfortunately).

One of the key takeaways for me that’s relevant for the ADF was more on the Ukranian side. Apparently the footage of Bayraktar TB2 kills was largely taken in the first week and a half, and then drip fed out over the subsequent weeks to give the impression of ongoing effectiveness. Their view is that since the Russian IADS got their act together TB2s are no longer particularly useful in a strike role. This is certainly news to me (perhaps not others on here more knowledgeable than I) and from a very credible source.

It certainly has significant implications for the “we don’t need manned aircraft and armour, just drones and missiles” crowd. I presume (hope?) that this is well known to Houston and Smith as they are learning from Ukraine when making their recommendations.
 
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