AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE,
Paris: The leading European nations are running out of options over Iran's nuclear programme, being incapable both of persuading Tehran to yield and of finding a consensus among members of the United Nations Security Council, experts said Thursday.
In a clear sign of the current impasse, a meeting planned for Friday in London between the so-called EU-3 of France, Britain and Germany as well as the United States, China and Russia has been postponed until next week “to allow more detailed preparation of the EU-3's proposals to Iran,” a Foreign Office spokesman said.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has already poured scorn on the as yet unformulated European offer aimed at persuading Tehran to suspend uranium enrichment, comparing it to “nuts and chocolates.”
“Iran is not going to compromise on its enrichment activities. They have crossed too many important thresholds to turn back now,” said Frederic Tellier of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) in Paris.
Diplomatic sources said that the new European proposal would include aid to allow Iran to acquire a light-water reactor for civilian use on condition that Teheran stops enriching uranium.
But for Patrick Cronin of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, that will almost certainly be “too little too late because as things stand no-one in Iran could accept such a modest proposal.”
According to Cronin, the United States has used the EU-3 as negotiators, but their diplomacy has been unable to bridge the gap between Washington — which wants a UN Security Council resolution opening the way to sanctions — and Beijing and Moscow which do not want to contemplate punitive action.
“We are almost at the limit of what the Europeans can offer. But the offer is a little late and in any case will not satisfy Iran,” said Antonio Missiroli of the European Policy Centre in Brussels.
According to Missiroli, the Europeans are in an “embarrassing situation … because they have gone down a path with very few opportunities for retreat. In this game of poker Iran has plenty of cards to play because the West played its hand badly from the start.”
“Iran has based its strategy on the principle that Russia and China will prove to be solid allies on the Security Council” and will not vote for possible sanctions, said Tellier. “And indeed things seem to be turning out that way,” he said.
According to Didier Bellon, Middle East specialist at IRIS, Tehran is seeking to “put up the pressure on the EU in the hope of negotiating directly with the US.”
“But even if there were two-way talks there is no reason to think there would be a solution because there is strong opposition both in Iran and in the US,” said a French government expert in strategic relations.
In the short term “nothing will happen,” said Georges Leguelte, a former senior official at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) who said the current impasse among members of the security council can only lead to “diplomatic gesticulations.”
