Ananda
The Bunker Group
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Hawk is aimed to be replace by M346FA. Flankers being discussed going to be replace by either Su-35 or J-10CE. I have doubt about Russian deal as they can not provide financing scheme. Thus more likely candidate of J-10CE can come depending on price and financing packages. This is as Indonesia want to balance defense procurement, with either Chinese or Russian fighters in eastern Indonesia.
Thus if the plan not upgrading on those C/D Blk 25, then they can go first by end of this decade up to 2030. That's coincide with the plan KF-21 Blk 2 (if the deal going to be finalise by mid of this year). If another batches of Rafale also being finalise, then more likely TNI-AU will have Rafale and KF-21 as their main fighter by 2030+. Potential of M346FA also not final yet as rumours saying KAI fight for FA-50 (either by more fighters or upgrading existing ones).
What I have doubt is KAAN and Su-35. KAAN has condition precedence in the contract, which is availability of ISTAR Free engine. That in my opinion is too many 'if', and just like Russia, Turkiye has limited capacities for their FI to provide competitive financing. No acceptable financing and prices, then no contract execution. This already been seen several times.
At present time, everyone are having fiscal pressure due to Trump's war. However the talk of Indonesia fiscal deficit, credit rating negative outlook, at this moment being enhance by some in market that does not like Purbaya as he is consider fiscal expansionist compare to Sri Mulyani which's market darling. MBG it self now being reduce to compensate with increase in Fuel subsidies. Thus Prabowo's administration shown willingness to cut MBG to save the fiscal deficit at 3%. Presently I see some factions in here try to use MBG and fiscal deficit as way to push Prabowo to sack Purbaya.
I'm not a Prabowo supporter, I'm more market supporter. However since Ukraine war, market more and more being influences by big players politics. Some does not like Indonesia internal changes, some does not like Indonesia sign MDCP with US Trump. Still it is too early to see what's real situations as now everything in market being clouded and jiteries by Trump's war.
How long this war going to last, is anyone guess. However now Republican behind the scene are seems begin pushing Trump to finish ASAP. They begin see their support numbers decreasing against democrats. They are now fighthing for their seats. Thus even some Republican pushing for the end of war, despite usually they are following Trump and Aipac on this war. Thus breaking sign begin to crack on Trump's Republican support.
So who knows, what kind of adjustment will happen, even of the war going to finish soon. Some prices going to be paid. Thus will that means all TNI-AU plan will happen ? Off course not, not evem before this war happen, all the plans will come to fruitfull result. Afterall this is Indonesia, they make 5 sales lobbies, and if 2 going to be executed, it is already achievement.
