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bdique

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gf0012-aust said:
just in

Trump promises Chinese president he'll honor 'One China' policy | TheHill
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I'm taking this as a sign that all that rhetoric about China i.e. trade wars and even military conflict will stay that way - rhetoric. Living in a country relatively near to China, I take this as good news.

Still, I wonder if there are pro-Trump elements who will be unhappy at this cooling of relations with China - there is bound to be a group of influential people who backed him because of his promise of standing up to China and might end up feeling disenfranchised if indeed relations with China remain more or less the same.

Whether Trump can rein these elements in or not...I think there are minds here brighter than mine who can better illuminate that issue better than I can. I sure hope that he can - there's already enough uncertainty the Trump administration brings to the table.
 
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colay1

Member
Trump learned quickly that playing the Taiwan Card wouldn't get him anywhere. Beijing made it clear from the start that One-China is non-negotiable and Trump had to back down so Trump has lost face. Again.
Who was it in Trump's cabinet who talked about denying China access to the reclaimed islands in the SCS? Really now... no way they can enforce that short of military force. Another position the Trump Administration will have to retreat from.
 
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Boatteacher

Active Member
colay1 said:
Trump learned quickly that playing the Taiwan Card wouldn't get him anywhere. Beijing made it clear from the start that One-China is non-negotiable and Trump had to back down so Trump has lost face. Again.
Who was it in Trump's cabinet who talked about denying China access to the reclaimed islands in the SCS? Really now... no way they can enforce that short of military force. Another position the Trump Administration will have to retreat from.
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The only problem with going back to the Obama administration policy is that it pretty well gave China permission to do anything at all they wanted (short of firing a missile) absolutely knowing they could get away with it. Which is why we now have four militarized Islands.

Saying we're going to block access to the existing Islands was always a step too far - because it would have to be backed by some major muscle and someone would end up in a humiliating retreat or a big war.

But there should be ambiguity on the question of new Islands; enough that China has to think seriously twice before acting. Yes that means a risk of miscalculation and war but the alternative always has been that China simply achieves its complete takeover of the SCS.

And as for Taiwan, the message that China must win them over not do them over is the least that should be made out. History does not in fact support China's claims (from what I have read anyway). Again, China has become so used to getting what it wants from being a bully, it probably is time for someone to say NO.
 
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colay1

Member
I think Trump will quickly realize the reality, just like Obama before him, that there are very few viable options to counter China's encroachment strategy. China simply goes it's way, ignores unfavorable arbitration rulings and rightly sees the UN as toothless. China will gladly fill the leadership vacuum created by Trump dropping TPP and pick off the ASEAN countries one by one. The US will not risk economic warfare over the SCS issue and the best it can do is express continued support for countries in the region and conduct FON exercises every now and then. But that's about it IMO.
 
2007yellow430

2007yellow430

Active Member
ngatimozart said:
Not directed at anyone in particular, if people feel the necessity that honour must be assuaged by pistols or swords at dawn, please do it elsewhere because that can get noisy, messy and the Mods have grown bored with of the sounds of people shrieking as they are stuck or shot, so lets keep it civilised. Yes I know that the Black Knight said that it was only a flesh wound and that he could still bite the Kings ankles.

I think vitriol is an overly sensitive term. cdxbow has expressed some very valid concerns for those outside of the US and whilst his term of "narcissistic sociopath" is not necessarily polite, that is how President Trump is viewed by more than just a few outside of the US.
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That view is also held by a growing number of residents in the USA. And from what I see, the number is growing. Going to be a long 4 years, I suspect.

Art
 
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colay1

Member
CIA denying security clearance to Flynn's man in the NSC. The NSA withholding key intelligence from the White House. The Intelligence Community is starting to push back and Trump should have known better than to insult and marginalize the agencies that have access to info that can mess him up. The media can expect a steady supply of leaks if that's what it's going to take to rein in Trump and Co. in the eyes of the spooks.


The Spy Revolt Against Donald Trump Begins | Observer

The Spy Revolt Against Trump Begins

Now SIGINT confirms that some of the non-salacious parts of what Steele reported, in particular how senior Russian officials conspired to assist Trump in last year’s election, are substantially based in fact. This is bad news for the White House, which has already lashed out in angry panic, with Press Secretary Sean Spicer stating, “We continue to be disgusted by CNN’s fake news reporting.”...

In light of this, and out of worries about the White House’s ability to keep secrets, some of our spy agencies have begun withholding intelligence from the Oval Office... For decades, NSA has prepared special reports for the president’s eyes only, containing enormously sensitive intelligence. In the last three weeks, however, NSA has ceased doing this, fearing Trump and his staff cannot keep their best SIGINT secrets...

What’s going on was explained lucidly by a senior Pentagon intelligence official, who stated that “since January 20, we’ve assumed that the Kremlin has ears inside the SITROOM.” meaning the White House Situation Room, the 5,500 square-foot conference room in the West Wing where the president and his top staffers get intelligence briefings. “There’s not much the Russians don’t know at this point,” the official added in wry frustration.
 
cdxbow

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
colay1 said:
CIA denying security clearance to Flynn's man in the NSC. The NSA withholding key intelligence from the White House. The Intelligence Community is starting to push back and Trump should have known better than to insult and marginalize the agencies that have access to info that can mess him up. The media can expect a steady supply of leaks if that's what it's going to take to rein in Trump and Co. in the eyes of the spooks.


The Spy Revolt Against Donald Trump Begins | Observer

The Spy Revolt Against Trump Begins

Now SIGINT confirms that some of the non-salacious parts of what Steele reported, in particular how senior Russian officials conspired to assist Trump in last year’s election, are substantially based in fact. This is bad news for the White House, which has already lashed out in angry panic, with Press Secretary Sean Spicer stating, “We continue to be disgusted by CNN’s fake news reporting.”...

In light of this, and out of worries about the White House’s ability to keep secrets, some of our spy agencies have begun withholding intelligence from the Oval Office... For decades, NSA has prepared special reports for the president’s eyes only, containing enormously sensitive intelligence. In the last three weeks, however, NSA has ceased doing this, fearing Trump and his staff cannot keep their best SIGINT secrets...

What’s going on was explained lucidly by a senior Pentagon intelligence official, who stated that “since January 20, we’ve assumed that the Kremlin has ears inside the SITROOM.” meaning the White House Situation Room, the 5,500 square-foot conference room in the West Wing where the president and his top staffers get intelligence briefings. “There’s not much the Russians don’t know at this point,” the official added in wry frustration.
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Is this the first time the US has had an administration where a number of significant players could be compromised by the Russians?

After reading this WP article https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...61_story.html?utm_term=.d978adc09610#comments I expect the administration will push general Flynn under the bus, to try to limit the fallout, but I espect the rot will be too deep.

Some amateur sleuths believe they have managed to track the money back from the Rosneft deal back to Schwarzman’s Blackstone Group - see Is Trump Advisor Steve Schwarzman The Missing Link In The Rosneft Scandal? | The Huffington Post
 
Boagrius

Boagrius

Well-Known Member
cdxbow said:
After reading this WP article https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...61_story.html?utm_term=.d978adc09610#comments I expect the administration will push general Flynn under the bus, to try to limit the fallout, but I espect the rot will be too deep.
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This seems to have been prophetic:

President Donald Trump's national security adviser, Michael Flynn, resigned late on Monday after revelations that he had discussed U.S. sanctions on Russia with the Russian ambassador to the United States before Trump took office and misled Vice President Mike Pence about the conversations.

Flynn's resignation came hours after it was reported that the Justice Department had warned the White House weeks ago that Flynn could be vulnerable to blackmail for contacts with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak before Trump took power on Jan. 20.

Trump national security aide Flynn resigns over Russian contacts | Reuters
 
gf0012-aust

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
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I'm pretty sure that if he hadn't resigned he would have triggered a Logan Act response

I'm surprised Trump didn't pre confirmation

Flynn has lost his job twice in 3 years....
 
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colay1

Member
David Petraeus has been bandied around as a favorite to replace Flynn. He would be a great choice IMO and someone Trump respects ie. he said nice things about DP during the campaign.:)
 
gf0012-aust

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
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colay1 said:
David Petraeus has been bandied around as a favorite to replace Flynn. He would be a great choice IMO and someone Trump respects ie. he said nice things about DP during the campaign.:)
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Kellogg is currently doing the job.

Petraeus has some solid and very positive links into Australia...
 
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colay1

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Petraeus would help provide some balance and confidence after the DNI and SECDEF were demoted out of the NSC and Bannon managed to insert himself in their place. If Kellogg stays at the NSC then hopefully Petraeus could move over to Homeland Security.
 
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gf0012-aust

gf0012-aust

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Bannon shouldn't be on the NSC - and to turf the stars off permanent seats is IMO criminal
 
John Fedup

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Who were the people who sold Flynn to Trump or did he pick Flynn on his own? If it is the former, they may need to go too. Pretty hard to do anything if it is the latter, for now anyway.
 
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colay1

Member
One wonders if the folks at the White House got the message - screw with the intelligence community at your peril. They must be wondering what other incriminating files may be leaked in the future.
 
2007yellow430

2007yellow430

Active Member
Isn't Petraeus still on probation? That may hinder any appointment. Can't recall if he plead to a felony or misdemeanor. If a felony that later is reduced, he will never get that job, in my opinion.

I wouldn't be surprised if Flynn was operating under orders. I'd watch McCain very closely, I think he'd love to ruin Trump, if he can he will. Trump isn't doing himself any favors by blaming leaks to the press.

Art
 
FormerDirtDart

FormerDirtDart

Well-Known Member
2007yellow430 said:
Isn't Petraeus still on probation? That may hinder any appointment. Can't recall if he plead to a felony or misdemeanor. If a felony that later is reduced, he will never get that job, in my opinion.

I wouldn't be surprised if Flynn was operating under orders. I'd watch McCain very closely, I think he'd love to ruin Trump, if he can he will. Trump isn't doing himself any favors by blaming leaks to the press.

Art
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Sentenced to two years probation on April 23, 2015. So yes, still on probation.
It was plead down to a misdemeanor charge of mishandling classified materials. But, they were TS/SCI documents he improperly stored at his residence, and personally handed over to an unauthorized individual.

I honestly can not see how the Trump administration could possibly attempt to waive that off after screaming daily, for almost a year and a half, about "emails"
 
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colay1

Member
Selecting Petraeus would smack of hypocrisy considering Trumps criticism of Clinton's handling of classified information. Still I believe Democrats would support his appointment. His CIA stint gives him an edge over other candidates IMO.
 
2007yellow430

2007yellow430

Active Member
FormerDirtDart said:
Sentenced to two years probation on April 23, 2015. So yes, still on probation.
It was plead down to a misdemeanor charge of mishandling classified materials. But, they were TS/SCI documents he improperly stored at his residence, and personally handed over to an unauthorized individual.

I honestly can not see how the Trump administration could possibly attempt to waive that off after screaming daily, for almost a year and a half, about "emails"
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My understanding is that If he doesn't satisfactorily complete the probation, it's a felony. Unlikely, but possible.

Art
 
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