This is nothing new, Ron Mark as Defence Minister had the same battle with the C130J-30 & P8 as well as convincing his Cabinet of the dire need to replace like with like.
Royal New Zealand Navy Discussions and Updates
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My argument is that Australia is already doing the U.K. a massive favour and coping a lot of flack for it. For me I'd rather strengthen ties with Australia rather than persue the latest most optimal solution or something like that.
Why would you want Australian at moment sub's going know where fast. Type 26 frigates over budget cut back on numbers and OPV in the same boat . I don't believe Australia and NZ should have all eggs in one basket and NZ could find a niche in defence of Pacific with small modular patrol frigates that can fill a few different tasks but must 4 frigates if we in the real game anything else just a joke when comes to defence of NZ and interests.
If it is true that the Rules-Based Order is being desecrated, our closest ally should have priority. The Mogami ain't terrible enough to make us look for another supplier. With petrol at $3 per litre and no possible way of going back in time to a benign strategic environment, the good times are over and the decisions are going to get way, way trickier. I just believe that the friendship Australia and New Zealand have will be a greater benefit. And there is going to be production problems or whatever. Marine Diesel is not priced for sympathy, and the sea is patient, having a warship builder 2000 km away has to be way more preferable, and Australian strategic oil reserves are way ahead of NZ. I know in a benign environment, New Zealand had to magnify their decisions so greatly that it made us look more important on paper, and most of all I know everyone here wants the best for NZDF, but just buy Australian.
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
How? The notion of NZ purchasing frigates built in an Australian yard is one that has already been raised in this thread, and essentially dismissed for being a non-viable idea. Unless the Kiwis were to manage to extend the service lives of RNZN ANZAC-class frigates until the 2040's, build slots in Australian shipyards are already spoken for, for ships needed to replace RAN vessels that are due for replacement.
Unless something believes that Australia could, would and should delay replacing some RAN vessels that are due for retirement, so that NZ could jump the order and build queue, Australian production is currently spoken for. That is also not even getting into the (very real IMO) possibility that Australia could encounter problems attempting to stand up a new facility, at a new site, with a new workforce and have it immediately start working on a new to Australia design from a new source. Such problems could easily blow out and delay what the current RAN build and replacement plan seems to be.
I get your points, but by that measure, does that mean the RNZN needs to buy Arafura Class OPV's as well since Oz builds them? For an OPV, it's not bad
No arguments there. All of those issues should have been communicated 10 years ago between our respective governments. Water under the bridge now. Pity.
Australia's marine engineers can do better I think the issue is that our respective governments aren't even communicating on that level.
I don’t think even Australia should be running “Australian made” frigates.
I’d buy Japanese ones. They will be cheaper and built on time, to spec.
If OTOH NZ would like grossly overdue, vastly over cost ships, built on the least economically viable shipyards in the world that are operated with political benefit as the main driver, not efficiency, cost or capability, then by all means, buy Australian…
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
If (big IF) Australia can actually get a continuous shipbuilding plan going, and then sustain it with successive orders, then it might become economically viable as well as efficient.
Pollies being pollies though...
Indeed. Add to which the last 4 years we have seen the loss of:
3x Hunters.
6x Arafuras.
2x stillborn Joint Support Ships.
From local manufacturing…
That may or may not be offset by local build of Mogamis, but no contract has been signed yet, nor has a contract been signed for the second tranche of Hunters…
AWD was killed at 3…
None of this is knocking on the door of making Australian made, cheaper…
It's a pity NZ treasury has such influence. Otherwise Australia and NZ could consider doing what the UK and Norway are doing with the Type 26- build in Australia, but build a hub in NZ. NZ just doesn't have to will to do so. NZ has Singapore's population, and although the GDP is lower, SG shows NZ could handle a larger military.
Actually, if you look at the CGT cost of the Osborne shipyard, it is close to the cost incurred by UK and German yards. More than Korea or Japan, of course, and the French are cagey about theirs, but less than the US. I accept that CGT is a crude measure for warships (it is much better when looking at Mership build costs) but it is the best there is. Do not confuse total program cost, which is of course amortised across the class build, with shipbuilding cost.
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Todjaeger
Potstirrer
SEA 3000, the programme that is to build Mogami-class frigates for the RAN in a new facility in WA that is at best, under construction now, was not announced until Feb 2024, just over two years ago. To look back at Australian shipbuilding programmes running a decade ago that NZ might have participated in, the only ones running AFAIK were the ones which led to the Arafura-class OPV and the Hunter-class FFG. Early 2016 would also be before the selections made/contracts signed for the two classes which occurred in 2018.
The other, very large fly in the ointment, would be that NZGov't appears to have been aiming for a mid-2030's replacement for their frigates for some time. Had NZGov't really wanted to replace the RNZN frigates on/around when they reach 30 years of service, then the first vessel should have been planned to enter service by the middle of next year. Instead, it looks like the planned for replacement is still nearly a decade off, with some of the planning now being done. Also, in order for NZ to have gotten a lead replacement ship into service by ~2027, NZ would likely have needed to start working towards this in the early 2010's during the Key gov't.
Whilst looking back, this might seem now to have been appropriate back then, I do not think at the time members of gov't would have been willing to entertain any notions of the RNZN purchasing new frigates.
The Christchurch Earthquake quakes pushed the frigate replacement program out past ten years instead siding with ASUV extending the life of Te Mana and Te Kaha. Arguably the 2016 window wasn't just missed because the Australian programs either didn't exist, was the wrong ship or were still whispers. The FSU costing six hundred million extends our ANZACs life avoiding a "capability gap" while waiting for a new build.
The most logical long term solution IMO is to soldier on with the ANZACs until NZ can align with Australia's SEA 3000. The 2025 DCP acknowledges that New Zealand might never operate a large fleet again so the solution is to make the few ships available more learhal. Ultimately New Zealand is waiting for a production line that never existed in 2010, still doesn't exist and won't exist in the 2030's instead using slippery language to "increase leathality".
The current unfolding strategy is a kind of controlled transition to stop the bleeding of experiencened personal that is stretched to breaking point. Asides from warships the other problem is attrition. Post COVID-19, "Operation Protect" forced tie up of HMNZS Otago, Wellington and Hawea-simply because there wasn't enough ratings to man them meaning personal numbers is signalled to rise to 2500 by 2040 according to the DCP 2025 which is just survival meaning the 9 ships NZ has aren't sitting idle.
With only 9 vessels they're going to have to become more leathal with some sort of solution that allows the 2 frigates NZ has to focus on the high end stuff but these quote unquote "more leathal" solutions does not fit the 2500 survival numbers just to man 9 vessels. Sigh:/. By 2030 The great and wonderful government of New Zealand "hopes" to have a smaller more lethal force heavily integrated integrated with Australias aray of sensors to cover the gaps. As of yet I'm yet to see anything resembling a "sovereign capability" that would allow the RNZN to talk with the RAN and/or improve leathality while RNZN personal are capped at a hypothetical 2500 personal.
All the intellect in the world cannot account for betrayal. To have a sovereign capability the government would have to reverse 40 years of tax and rate cuts. Aligning with Australia to keep RNZN afloat is the overwhelmingly obvious choice.