The same guy less than a week ago:
Also the same guy earlier today:
I don’t think Iran has much incentive to just end it once Trump announces his victory. Iran deciding when it stops is exactly the leverage and future deterrence they are (or should be) looking for. While April 1 futures still trade at about $100 on average (depending on the blend), spot prices are $40-50 higher at the Gulf and elsewhere. Those selling the contracts today will likely have no oil to deliver and will take huge losses come April. That’s what Iran should be aiming for, one would think. Especially since the rumour has it that the US is one of those potentially taking these (massive) losses:
Someone in Yemen probably has their hands itching like crazy to light the fuse to shoot one out to Aden (doesn’t even matter if they hit anything) to send those prices “to the moon”.
This is a good breakdown of the basics of barrels in the region:
This is the imbecile in charge of the Pentagon:
This is also him and the problem I had talked about previously:
The irony is that Iran is still selling their oil (and marginally more than it used to prior to the war) and for more money and the US will not touch their tankers probably because it has potential to send the oil prices closer to the moon than they are comfortable with.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the seeding season is coming up shortly. Call it anecdotal, but I know on good account that many of those who did not have their fertilizer/chemicals on preorder here are having trouble even getting estimates for late April - early May deliveries. The same is undoubtedly true in the USA as well. The “strategic genius” could not have picked worse timing for his, what he called, excursion. He already screwed his farmers with China; now with diesel, fertilizer, and chemical prices “mooning” right for the seeding season…
What’s funny (if one has not had enough yet) is that they say they planned for everything. I guess except for getting their citizens out, closure of Hormuz, and so on. The first clue was when Trump said that he was surprised that Iran would not give up in the negotiations. Then, the surprise was that Iran would attack the Gulf States. Later it was the closure of Hormuz. The latest surprise for the man is that Iran would not give up after the “total obliteration”. Crazy times, but here we are - life is full of surprises, especially when one completely lacks critical thinking and there is no one to tell him that he is pretty much an idiot, completely out of his element. It’s insane, really.