Middle East Defence & Security

swerve

Super Moderator
I posted this in the Russia-Ukraine War thread but it has relevance here as well.


This TWZ article describes the Ukraine’s ban on inexpensive anti-drone munitions. Understandable given the Russian attacks but if excess supplies are available then perhaps the ban is a bargaining chip for getting longer range strike missiles.

Perhaps they could licence trusted manufacturers in other countries to make 'em.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
Infact well there is lots of talk about the deployment of Marines to the area is for possibility taking kharg island. I think it may be for boarding tankers coming out of the strait. Admittedly tho anything is possible.
If it is about Iranian/IRGC military facilities that can't be taken out by bombing, a limited ground assault maybe contemplated but anything more comes with big risks, given the proximity to Iran

It feels like a replay of the Tanker Wars of the 1980s and Iraq had similarly targeted Kharg to disrupt Iran's economy.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
Trump's calls for American allies to send ships to the Hormuz Straits would likely fall on deaf ears because the solution to reopen the Straits is de-escalate and stopping the bombing.

But no, he is expecting the rest of the world to bail him out on a mess that he started.

1773549995627.png
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
India already send their warship, but only to escort back their own cargo and tanker.

This is not popular war outside Israel and Trump MAGA supporters. Japan will not send their ship to war that they are not participate with. That's again their Self Defence constitution. ROK from what I read in their forums are already furious that Trump administration wants to take out THAAD missile from ROK The US may move some of its anti-missile system - and it's sparking unease in South Korea, something they see US/Trump neglection toward them.

While the European, I sense they will let Trump and Netanyahu falling down and sunk in further as consequences of this war. Seems US democrats being rumours try to convince European to stay out outside gulf, especially US mid term ellection clossing in.

Add:

I believe he realised that he need to pull US from this quaqmire soon. He seems now try to negotiate something that he still claim as Victory.
 
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downunderblue

Well-Known Member
Trump's calls for American allies to send ships to the Hormuz Straits would likely fall on deaf ears because the solution to reopen the Straits is de-escalate and stopping the bombing.

But no, he is expecting the rest of the world to bail him out on a mess that he started.

View attachment 54492
His infinite geopolitical expertise got himself into this mess (against military counsel), yet he now wants to minimise the fallout asking everyone for help?

He has the USN. If they cant secure shipping in the Gulf then I'd suggest no one can (and it's time to find a graceful exit out of this sorry mess).

The question is, where are all the adults (non yes people) in the room with him? The Emperor has no clothes and I'm sick of constantly seeing his balls on display.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
I believe he realised that he need to pull US from this quaqmire soon. He seems now try to negotiate something that he still claim as Victory.
Trump can spin a story on what they accomplished but the problem is who gets to decide how this ends is not Trump or Netanyahu but Iran.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
He has the USN. If they cant secure shipping in the Gulf then I'd suggest no one can (and it's time to find a graceful exit out of this sorry mess).
I suspect he wants to shown US audiences that he got 'coalition of willing' on securing Persian Gulf especially Hormuz straits. Getting some kind of coalition backing can perhaps increase those undecided votters for Mid Term, and most importantly his ego. Capability wise they will not add much from what USN already has.

Trump can spin a story on what they accomplished but the problem is who gets to decide how this ends is not Trump or Netanyahu but Iran.
I agree on that, but seems this is what behind the door the negotiation is. Wondering if he in the end going to let Netanyahu hangin dry. Some MAGA supporters already see this mess not Trump doing, but Netanyahu deceit.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
The same guy less than a week ago:

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Also the same guy earlier today:

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I don’t think Iran has much incentive to just end it once Trump announces his victory. Iran deciding when it stops is exactly the leverage and future deterrence they are (or should be) looking for. While April 1 futures still trade at about $100 on average (depending on the blend), spot prices are $40-50 higher at the Gulf and elsewhere. Those selling the contracts today will likely have no oil to deliver and will take huge losses come April. That’s what Iran should be aiming for, one would think. Especially since the rumour has it that the US is one of those potentially taking these (massive) losses:


IMG_4388.jpeg

Someone in Yemen probably has their hands itching like crazy to light the fuse to shoot one out to Aden (doesn’t even matter if they hit anything) to send those prices “to the moon”.

IMG_4397.jpeg

This is a good breakdown of the basics of barrels in the region:



This is the imbecile in charge of the Pentagon:


This is also him and the problem I had talked about previously:


The irony is that Iran is still selling their oil (and marginally more than it used to prior to the war) and for more money and the US will not touch their tankers probably because it has potential to send the oil prices closer to the moon than they are comfortable with.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the seeding season is coming up shortly. Call it anecdotal, but I know on good account that many of those who did not have their fertilizer/chemicals on preorder here are having trouble even getting estimates for late April - early May deliveries. The same is undoubtedly true in the USA as well. The “strategic genius” could not have picked worse timing for his, what he called, excursion. He already screwed his farmers with China; now with diesel, fertilizer, and chemical prices “mooning” right for the seeding season…

What’s funny (if one has not had enough yet) is that they say they planned for everything. I guess except for getting their citizens out, closure of Hormuz, and so on. The first clue was when Trump said that he was surprised that Iran would not give up in the negotiations. Then, the surprise was that Iran would attack the Gulf States. Later it was the closure of Hormuz. The latest surprise for the man is that Iran would not give up after the “total obliteration”. Crazy times, but here we are - life is full of surprises, especially when one completely lacks critical thinking and there is no one to tell him that he is pretty much an idiot, completely out of his element. It’s insane, really.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Japan will not send their ship to war that they are not participate with. That's again their Self Defence constitution.

Japan already answer, that saying basically sending JMSDF ships to Gulf and escorting Tankers and Cargo ships, will not happen. It is expected due to their consitutions put that action against self defense nature. Moreover most US allies except Israel want to stay away from this mess. Well perhaps Trump will then go back to his trade war tantrum to push anyone to send ships.
 
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