The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[rsemmes]

you could heat Europe all on your own!

I object to "whataboutism".

 

[Feanor]

It was stable, until it wasn’t. You can debate causes endlessly, but the outcome was reduced flows and then a shutdown. That alone alters the risk profile. Europe can’t base its energy security on the assumption that 2022 was just a one-off anomaly.

Even setting aside they'd need to trust something of that importance to someone that designated them “unfriendly countries” and musing about nuking their capitals on state TV.

The simple fact remains that Russia is at war, its infrastructure has been exposed to disruption, and deliveries were severely impacted in recent past. That alone makes energy reliance a strategic non-starter.

If the argument that is that Europe should diversify it's energy sources, I think you're right and I think that's obvious. But excluding Russia from the basket especially when the infrastructure already exists doesn't make sense. You don't get better energy security by having fewer sources. Keeping some Russian resources in the mix would encourage Russia to keep the infrastructure in place, and even develop it somewhat, and it would provide a fallback if other sources had disruptions for whatever reasons. Dependence on Russia is bad, but being a customer doesn't automatically equate to dependence.

 

[rsemmes]

And you'll notice Russia hasn't had much success in the Ivanovka area.



It appears Ukraine has shifted their resources away from this area and towards the Zaporozhye front. Russia seems poised to make significant gains in this area, though so far Russian consolidation hasn't been confirmed, only a substantial expansion of the grey zone. Grishino is probably about to be under Russian control. I keep waiting to see Russian forces enter Biletskoe.

There is mound north of Svitle, they could be just waiting to tight the noose? I've seen more than a few tall buildings (SE) in Bilitske, but I don't know what kind of "preparation" it has suffered.

 

[Feanor]

There is mound north of Svitle, they could be just waiting to tight the noose? I've seen more than a few tall buildings (SE) in Bilitske, but I don't know what kind of "preparation" it has suffered.

The town is basically destroyed. There's plenty of standing buildings, but it's been hit hard for quite some time. In general any town that spends a substantial amount of time on the front lines ends up destroyed in this war. The ones that come through more or less intact are ones where Russia manages to take them relatively quickly, like Selidovo or Kurakhovo. Even Dobropol'ye is slowly getting wrecked. Neither is at the state Artemovsk/Bakhmut was at, or Toretsk is at, but neither is a functioning urban locale in any way and would require substantial reconstruction.

Biletskoe has quite a few mid-rise apartments, and is generally fairly dense, even more so than Rodinskoe. Maybe Russia will make a play for the refuse mound that you mentioned, but so far they haven't even consolidated inside Noviy Donbas. I guess we'll see. Control of that refuse mound would cut Biletskoe off from Dobropol'ye, and would even compromise some Ukrainian positions towards Dobropol'ye, so it would be a good position for Russian forces to aim for. But there's not much cover on it, and there's a mine complex under Ukrainian control east of it and south of it, meaning it might be hard to hold.

EDIT: Just took a look at AMK's map and he has Russian forces with a foothold in southern Biletskoe, where Suriyak has the grey zone. He also has Russian controlling the mine complex west of Rodinskoe, again where Suriyak has a grey zone. I suspect they're interpreting the same underlying information slightly differently.

 

[rsemmes]

The town is basically destroyed. There's plenty of standing buildings, but it's been hit hard for quite some time. In general any town that spends a substantial amount of time on the front lines ends up destroyed in this war. The ones that come through more or less intact are ones where Russia manages to take them relatively quickly, like Selidovo or Kurakhovo. Even Dobropol'ye is slowly getting wrecked. Neither is at the state Artemovsk/Bakhmut was at, or Toretsk is at, but neither is a functioning urban locale in any way and would require substantial reconstruction.

Biletskoe has quite a few mid-rise apartments, and is generally fairly dense, even more so than Rodinskoe. Maybe Russia will make a play for the refuse mound that you mentioned, but so far they haven't even consolidated inside Noviy Donbas. I guess we'll see. Control of that refuse mound would cut Biletskoe off from Dobropol'ye, and would even compromise some Ukrainian positions towards Dobropol'ye, so it would be a good position for Russian forces to aim for. But there's not much cover on it, and there's a mine complex under Ukrainian control east of it and south of it, meaning it might be hard to hold.

EDIT: Just took a look at AMK's map and he has Russian forces with a foothold in southern Biletskoe, where Suriyak has the grey zone. He also has Russian controlling the mine complex west of Rodinskoe, again where Suriyak has a grey zone. I suspect they're interpreting the same underlying information slightly differently.

The "best" option seems to be taking Bilitske, then.
Even after that, and taking the mine and consolidating Novii Donbas, they're going to need a wide front to attack Dobropillia: the yards to the SW, the mine complex to the NE and School 7 in the centre; the houses to the SE would be the "easy" part.
I wonder if, by that time, Ukraine would still be contesting Liman and Kostiantinivka.