Middle East Defence & Security

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Anyone have thoughts on the Chinese mystery flights into Iran? Their volume seems a little low for some sort of large scale military aid, and it's not clear what if anything small scale military aid would accomplish.

The translations suggest that it was B747's hauling freight, which China does have, however if the Telegram post was accurate, even a B747 F would have issues transporting and offloading outsized cargo. My first thought TBH is that China might have/had personnel and/or kit in Iran that was operating on a contract basis or under some sort of lease, and China was sending lift assets to extricate whomever/whatever they had in Iran.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The translations suggest that it was B747's hauling freight, which China does have, however if the Telegram post was accurate, even a B747 F would have issues transporting and offloading outsized cargo. My first thought TBH is that China might have/had personnel and/or kit in Iran that was operating on a contract basis or under some sort of lease, and China was sending lift assets to extricate whomever/whatever they had in Iran.
Yeah, sorry, I assumed people were aware of this. The telegram references The Telegraph, but I didn't find that article. I did find Yahoo news and MSN. It didn't occur to me that this was China evacuating their people because... why the secrecy? Why turn off transponders and risk something unpleasant happening? Why not tell Israel "these are our flights, they're removing our people, no military aid coming in, don't shoot them down"? I doubt Israel would take the position that Chinese jets are targets in that scenario...

 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Yeah, sorry, I assumed people were aware of this. The telegram references The Telegraph, but I didn't find that article. I did find Yahoo news and MSN. It didn't occur to me that this was China evacuating their people because... why the secrecy? Why turn off transponders and risk something unpleasant happening? Why not tell Israel "these are our flights, they're removing our people, no military aid coming in, don't shoot them down"? I doubt Israel would take the position that Chinese jets are targets in that scenario...

If it was things being removed from Iran, one possibility is that China (or Iran for that matter) did not wish others to know or have any real idea who or what was being removed. One example being Chinese missile tech in Iran that was not supposed to be there, or perhaps advanced chemical processing systems, etc.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
That is by definition a gut feeling.
I am going to check the dictionary later.

You literally quoted PressTV's statement and referred to it as "fact".
Say what? I am going to file this under “misread my post” rather than “comprehension issues” (though in combination with the “gut feeling”, it ain’t easy).

Neither do I, for as long as you refuse to provide any logical chain of thought and evidence.
I will interpret. I do not see a point to this engagement because you have personal vested interest and an extremely strong ideological alignment with the external policies of Israel. You are convinced in the legitimacy of the process. I see in your posts that you are here (in this thread) to prove yourself/Israel right and others, who disagree with you, wrong. More often than not, there is no discussion, but an argument. Furthermore, you have a tendency to grow rather aggressive rather quickly (you are attacking koxinga for no apparent reason, for example). And so on. You demand “logical chain of thought”, yet you come back at me with “gut feeling” to a post that is not hard to follow. Therefore, I have no reason to engage with you when I feel (gut feeling?) the argument is forthcoming, though I am a fairly patient person. I posted what I did, you followed up expressing your opinion, I did the same and assessed that I have no interest in continuing the engagement, and now we move on to the next thing: I will make another post -> you may or may not reply -> I will do the same. It’s that simple. I am not interested in peen measuring competitions, I am here to discuss (when I think discussion is worth it).

Is that argument in the shape of a man of straw?
No, it’s what I said above. Examples of what you are referring to are like this:

Baier then pressed Netanyahu about his claim that Iran launched two assassination attempts.

“Through proxies, yes.” he said.

“Through, through their intel, yes, they want to kill him,” he added. “He’s enemy number one.”


From here: Netanyahu says Iran tried to assassinate Trump as he tries to justify air strikes

“Today, it's Tel Aviv. Tomorrow, it's New York. Look, I understand 'America First'. I don't understand 'America Dead'[…]”

From here: Netanyahu tells ABC he's not ruling out taking out Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei

Reminds me of someone else.

Another example, that you refer to as consistency and assert that others should not participate due to their lack of understanding of the matter at hand:



Edit: BigZ, I now see your claims of the US supporting the Israeli intel, is there a source for the claims?
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I see in your posts that you are here (in this thread) to prove yourself/Israel right and others, who disagree with you, wrong.
I am here to post information. If people reply to me with a question or a challenge, I will reply. That is the purpose of a forum.

Furthermore, you have a tendency to grow rather aggressive rather quickly (you are attacking koxinga for no apparent reason, for example). And so on.
It seems you attempted to deduce tone of speech from written text. I would ask you how one can do that reliably, but you entirely misinterpreted my tone as aggressive and/or argumentative, so perhaps I shouldn't be asking you that.
If I was here just for the sake of argument and nothing else, I wouldn't ignore trolls like @Perun , regardless of how stupid the things they write.

I do not see a point to this engagement because you have personal vested interest and an extremely strong ideological alignment with the external policies of Israel.
I am both ideological and factual. I do not hide that my worldview is "peace through strength", hard work, and proactivity.
Not necessarily in that order.
Proactivity is not a word that can really be used to describe Israeli foreign policy. Israel only adopted a proactive military approach on September of 2024.
Our biggest disaster in decades, October 7th 2023, was a direct result of absence of proactivity.
I am not at all confident that Israel will maintain its current proactive approach when the war ends.
Nor do I agree with Israel's chronic lack of a foreign policy.
Further, I am near completely ideologically opposed to the current Israeli government, I vote opposition, and had my fair share of anti-government activism.
So while I do ideologically align with some policy decisions, it is impossible to say that I "extremely strongly align".

You demand “logical chain of thought”, yet you come back at me with “gut feeling” to a post that is not hard to follow. Therefore, I have no reason to engage with you when I feel (gut feeling?) the argument is forthcoming, though I am a fairly patient person.
It appears to be a mere comprehension issue.
The term "gut feeling" is often used to describe a decision or idea that is more rooted in instinct than logic.

Here is the direct quote
The American intelligence came up with a different assessment just very recently. I do not believe public revelations by Israeli intelligence. It is clear as day why Israel decided to strike now. There has never been a better time to do so.
You based your argument, that Israel struck because "there has never been a better time to do so", on the sole basis that you do not believe an intelligence assessment because it came from Israel.
I could not care less whether or not you believe any specific intelligence assessment. But that is not a way to structure an argument.
You then proceeded to refuse to elaborate, and when pressed further @koxinga provided an intelligence report by Tulsi Gabbard. Which you seem to trust, but not trust enough to properly understand that it aligns well with Israel's own intelligence report.
The argument that "there has never been a better time to do so" can be supported by "Trump is more permissive" which you argued. With that I agree.
You then, however, argued that it is also to torpedo US-Iran talks. That is something you actually need to back up. It doesn't stand on its own. It is a feeling, an instinct, not simple logic. A gut feeling.
And your refusal to explain any further and back up your claim, only confirms this. A person convinced of their argument would know how to back it up or reason through it.


No, it’s what I said above. Examples of what you are referring to are like this:
Baier then pressed Netanyahu about his claim that Iran launched two assassination attempts.
“Through proxies, yes.” he said.
“Through, through their intel, yes, they want to kill him,” he added. “He’s enemy number one.”

From here: Netanyahu says Iran tried to assassinate Trump as he tries to justify air strikes
“Today, it's Tel Aviv. Tomorrow, it's New York. Look, I understand 'America First'. I don't understand 'America Dead'[…]”
From here: Netanyahu tells ABC he's not ruling out taking out Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
Reminds me of someone else.
What is your argument or point? That Iran attempted to assassinate Trump?
I am neither familiar with such attempts nor do I see the relevance of that to this discussion, so elaborate please.

Another example, that you refer to as consistency and assert that others should not participate due to their lack of understanding of the matter at hand:
Yes and now you have shown me that you also lack the understanding of the subject, and apparently the ability to read.
I'm sorry but I can no longer regard you as either an honest person or one capable of complex thought if you are so conveniently presented with information yet refuse to learn it. It's not the inability, it's the refusal.
It is physically impossible to have any educated discussion on the subject of Iranian nuclear weapons not without understanding but with refusal to understand what the term "nuclear breakout" means.
Much as you would not argue about gravity with a person who thinks the earth is flat.

Edit: BigZ, I now see your claims of the US supporting the Israeli intel, is there a source for the claims?
On his way back from the G7 summit, he said Iran was very close to a bomb.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Can't even finish the first sentence without ad hominem?
The the best you can do ? I give you link on Isreal clearly hoping to get Pahlevi as alternative (call him lead opposition leader). You then try to deflect that. It is back to the fact Israel try to do Regime change, but simply don't have realistic alrernative.

All your ranting just prove Israel can not do regime change even to Hizbullah let alone Iran. You clearly delusional on Israel capabilities, beyond air attack to Iran. Israel need US to do regime change or even anything more than Air Attack to Iran, and that's the fact.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I give you link on Isreal clearly hoping to get Pahlevi as alternative (call him lead opposition leader). You then try to deflect that. It is back to the fact Israel try to do Regime change, but simply don't have realistic alrernative.
Reza Pahlavi is de facto the most prominent opposition figure to Iran's IRGC. This does not mean he is being prepared by anyone to assume leadership role in post-IRGC Iran. Nor has there been indication from Israel or the US of such.
A very realistic possibility is for Israel/USA to simply destabilize IRGC enough for a popular uprising, and then the leadership role is up for grabs, including by Pahlavi at his own personal risk.

All your ranting just prove Israel can not do regime change even to Hizbullah let alone Iran.
My words have a bearing on Israel's capabilities?

You clearly delusional
Are you sure it's the right or smart thing to start hurling insults instead of actually talking like a pseudo-adult?

Israel need US to do regime change or even anything more than Air Attack to Iran, and that's the fact.
Israel conducted a ground operation in north-western Iran without US assistance.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
In the last few days, we've seen more and more strikes on Iran's internal security apparatus. However, IRGC's severe limitations on internet connection has reduced our ability to see what's really being targeted.
Such strikes are not yet indicative of a destabilization campaign. That would require an intense strike campaign combining quantity and speed, which we cannot yet assess. It could also be a pressure campaign. Hopefully not.
 

Hoover

New Member
I have a question regarding the Iranian AA capabilities:
The Iran has ca. 950 mid range and 80 long range AA missile batteries
Every battery should have 4 TELs, giving a number of at least 4.000 TELs and 1000 radars.

I cannot believe that the IAF has destroyed all of them, not even half. So, where are the systems?
My thoughts:
1. The IAF realy has been able to destroy most of them
2. The IAF is able to surpress the radar detection
3. the Iran doesn´t activate the system for not wasting them due to the danger of destruction.

Any ideas?
 

Perun

New Member
12 interceptors launched against 1 Fatah missile. All 12 missed.

 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I have a question regarding the Iranian AA capabilities:
The Iran has ca. 950 mid range and 80 long range AA missile batteries
Every battery should have 4 TELs, giving a number of at least 4.000 TELs and 1000 radars.
You must first ask yourself how have you arrived at such numbers.

I cannot believe that the IAF has destroyed all of them, not even half. So, where are the systems?
My thoughts:
1. The IAF realy has been able to destroy most of them
2. The IAF is able to surpress the radar detection
3. the Iran doesn´t activate the system for not wasting them due to the danger of destruction.

Any ideas?
IAF claimed yesterday that 70 air defense batteries were destroyed.
I am not sure what constitutes a battery and whether TELARs inflate this number.
 

nesss01

New Member
Regarding Fordow....

couldn't Israel just put a solid metal penetrator warhead on its jericho 3 or 4 ICBMs?

warhead could be 1300 kg and impact at 5 km/sec

wouldn't this make a nice deep hole that regular bunker busters can be dropped on?
 

Hoover

New Member
12 interceptors launched against 1 Fatah missile. All 12 missed.

Is it confirmed that the 12 AA missiles were targeted the Iranian Missile? None of the interceptors are reacting to the Fatah.
Maybe the interceptors are heading to anothe target which is classified as a more important target (i.e. a missile heading to a more valuable target)?
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Regarding Fordow....

couldn't Israel just put a solid metal penetrator warhead on its jericho 3 or 4 ICBMs?

warhead could be 1300 kg and impact at 5 km/sec

wouldn't this make a nice deep hole that regular bunker busters can be dropped on?
Israel has an array of ALBMs (Air Launched Ballistic Missiles). Listed in order from light to heavy:
  • Elbit/IAI Rampage
  • Rafael ROCKS
  • IAI Air Lora
  • Golden Horizon (rumored Rafael Blue Sparrow)
This invalidates the need for something like the Jericho, which is rumored to be geared toward nuclear deterrent, not conventional strike.

Wikipedia.... and they claim 500 additional short range AA systems.
List of equipment of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Defense Force - Wikipedia
I am clear that these are not the actual numbers.
I would advise getting a better source.
Iran had a solid DIB/MIC. It produced its own air defenses.
What we know for now is that Israel has freedom of operation over north-western Iran.
5 days in, and Iran only managed to shoot down only 1 drone in central Iran (Isfahan).

What we know certainly is that Israel destroyed air defenses based on their tiers. In 2024 Israel destroyed Iran's S-300 systems which were Iran's only real defense against Israeli ALBMs. It then moved on to eliminate other radar sites and long range air defenses.
From there it progressively shifted to shorter ranged ones.
How much in percentage is unknown, but the freedom of operation is felt, strongly.

Logically, Iran could and perhaps should, try to salvage as much of its defensive capabilities as possible and conduct SAMbushes. But Israel can afford to let drones venture into such areas while its manned aircraft remain protected.
If Iran's remaining SAMs are not radar based, then they're a minor threat. If they are, then as a wise man once said "Emit, and die".
 
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