The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russo-Ukrainian Border.

Piles of Ukrainian KIA and destroyed vehicles are left at the Russian border. Warning footage of corpses.


Inside Kozinka a Ukrainian soldier fires an RPG at a Russian tank, but hits a roadwheel and fails to stop the tank. It appears Ukrainian forces entered the first few houses, right across the border but were then hit by a FPV drone, and later pushed out by Russian forces. No further Ukrainian footage from inside Kozinka to confirm control has emerged.


An interesting UAV video of a single Russian soldier approaching a Ukrainian trench, shooting a Ukrainian soldier, and then falling back. The explosion in the trench is either a grenade or a Ukrainian soldier firing an RPG.


Some UAV footage of Ukrainian KIAs and knocked out vehicles, I believe in the same spot as above. Warning footage of corpses.


A Ukrainian helicopter (allegedly Mi-24) was shot down near Kozinka, giving some confirmation of Ukraine for some reason using a helicopter to land infantry. Reportedly Russia's 138th MRBde is responsible, and a MANPADS was used.


Ukrainian forces have lost quite a few engineering vehicles in fighting near the border including two BAT-2s, and allegedly 4 IMR-2s, and 2 VT-72s. It's unclear why so many engineer vehicles are present.


It appears Romanian fighters were involved in the fighting in Belgorod region.


The so-called Russian Legion using a French 120mm mortar, towed by Humvee, in the fighting. And allegedly a Ukrainian mortar team getting hit near Kozinki. Possibly the same ones?


A Russian loitering munition strike hits a clump of Ukrainian infantry next to a knocked out tank.


Ukrainian tank in Sumy region near the border getting hit.


Ukrainian forces apparently entered the village of Gor'kovskoe, took a picture with a flag near the local school and withdrew.


Russian cross-border fires destroy allegedly an M777 howitzer.


Allegedly a Ukrainian BM-21 involved in shelling Belgorod getting hit by a Russian lancet strike.


A Ukrainian BMP-1 with extra armor screens destroyed just on the Ukrainian side of the border about halfway between the Kozinka and the Spodaryushino areas.


Russia appears to have hit a Ukrainian BM-21 involved in cross-border strikes using an S-400 as a land-attack missile.


In Belgorod region a Russian volunteer formation shot down a Ukrainian UAV near Maslovaya Pristan' using a hunting shotgun. Note we've seen many of Russia's territorial defense formations in the area using civilian weapons, including the semi-automatic AK variant, and shotguns. Note there is also a report of the exact same thing happening in Kurks region but without good footage, suggesting it's the same incident being misreported.


At least some of the forces involved from the Ukrainian side were riding in a captured Tayfun-K MRAP. Note these vehicles have almost disappeared from Russian use during this war.


Ukrainian shelling of Belgorod continues. Valuable military targets include residential buildings, a convenience store, a school stadium, and the local zoo. Reportedly cluster munitions were used.


Ukraine has been using UAVs to drop land mines into Belgorod region.


Polish 122mm cluster munitions were used in Ukrainian cross-border fires.


Russian cross border fires and bombings are destroying Ukrainian villages close to the Russian border. Russia has reportedly dropped over 100 bombs in the area in less then a week. In all likelihood this area will end up depopulated if fighting continues, and Ukraine has already declared evacuations of 55 locations in Kharkov region.


Inside Kozinka Russian footage shows battle damage. Reportedly only 16 civilians remain in the village. The large man speaking appears to be a local, and reports foreign fighters from the Ukrainian side taking part in the fighting. He also mentions Russian Chechen personnel being involved from the Russian side.


Casualty reports are starting to trickle in on Ukrainian army regulars lost in the fighting at the Russian border. These don't appear to be the Russian Legion fighters that have been prominent in the reporting. Reportedly Ukrainian Col. Alexander Kamenev was killed in the fighting in Belgorod, and a company commander from the 45th Indepent Btln. We also have a brigade soldier from a repair unit that's part of Ukraine's special forces killed. It's possible he was in one of the engineering vehicles mentioned above.


A Canadian citizen, veteran of the Canadian armed forces and the French Foreign Legion was killed in the fighting at the border.


Russia has decided to evacuate 9000 children from Belgorod region.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Strikes.

Russia carried out a massive wave of strikes against Ukrainian powerplants, hitting several thermal plants near Kharkov and the famous Dneproges in Zaporozhye. The damage to Dneproges is reportedly severe. Blackouts are being reported in Kharkov. There are also reports of impacts in Odessa, Vinnitsa, Dnepropetrovks, Ivano-Frankovsk, and L'vov regions. Reports include hits against gas infrastructure.


Russia also hit Kiev. Some reports indicate objects related to Ukraine's military intelligence were the focus of the attack.


A Russian strike hit the Nikolaev armor repair plant.


Russia also apparently hit a NASAMS launcher near Zaporozhye at the same time.


Near Slavyansk Russia reportedly took out an S-300 TEL and radar.


Russia hit another ST-68U this one in Chernigov region. It's interesting that a single munition was used to hit the radar precisely, followed by a cluster munition strike against the vehicles and kit around it.


Russian long-range lancet strike hit a Ukrainian L-39 at the Kul'bakino airfield. The value of this aircraft is relatively low.


Russia hit Ukrainian helicopters in either the eastern part of Dnepropetrovsk region or the western part of Donetsk region. They first hit the area with cluster munitions. Two helos appeared unable to take off after and were finished off with missile strikes. Two pilots are reported KIA.


Afterwards apparently Russia spotted Ukrainian service members stashing munitions and kit recovered after the strike above in a warehouse. Russia then hit the warehouse.


Russia hit a Ukrainian 205P Coast Guard boat.

.

A Russian Iskander used in recent strikes in Chernigov region was found to have new Kometa satellite correction components. It's likely development and evolution of these munitions is ongoing and simply not being reported on.


Russia struck the Korotich airfield near Kharkov. They're claiming two destroyed Mi-8s but evidence is absent.


Russian strike taking out a HIMARS, or a convincing decoy.


Russia launched a strike at Odessa, hitting the Victoria sanatorium where Ukrainian MVD service members were staying. Casualties totals are unclear with Russian sources claiming 550 KIA, an unlikely number. A more realistic number claims 20 KIA and 60 WIA. One officer is from police SpN, likely the Lyut' brigade. The btln CO and XO of Tsunami btln were killed.


In Selidovo Russian strikes continue. Ukrainian EOD are cleaning up an unexploded FAB-1500.


Ukrainian brigade general Mel'nik apparently disappeared from public view after a recent Russian strike in Kharkov. His social media is also inactive. He may have been wounded or killed.


Ukraine launched a massive wave of strikes against Russian oil refineries. Reportedly 14 refineries were hit, though none actually destroyed.


We haven't seen this in a while but a Ukrainian Strizh was shot down in Belgorod region.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Other interesting bits.

Ukraine has lost their first Rak self-propelled mortar. Likely the 44th Mech Bde.


The third knocked out Leo-2A4 that's missing it's driver hatch. Reasons unclear.


Apparently another Ukrainian Su-24M was shot down, but confirmation is scarce. None of the usual sources are reporting it. It's possible that this is old footage being passed off as new.


Russian FPV hits a Ukrainain THEMIS unmanned platform.


A Ukrainian truck and Spartan APC knocked out near Kramatorsk. Cause is unclear.


Ukraine has apparently begun using FPV drones with the ability to autonomously select targets. This type of capability was fairly recently shown on Russina Lancet loitering munitions. Coupled with the FPV airburst munitions, the evolution of drones continues.


Russia is continuing the practice of using weapons from decommissioned warships to up-gun MT-LBs, this time using twin-DShK turrets from old patrol boats.


First footage of Russia's Pchelka dronecarrier UAV. Apparently it's been in use for some time but was kept under wraps until Ukrainian sources reported on it.


A Russian T-90M with a strange turret modification and a T-72B3 mod'22 with a new type of anti-drone roof cage.


11 new Russian T-62M mod'22s heading somewhere, near the 103rd Armored Repair Plant.


A Russian BMP-2 with a roof cage and extra armor kit, hidden by rubbish, inside some town.


Bulgarian BTR-60s and 50's passing through Romania on their way to Ukraine. While undoubtedly much better then nothing, these are old and unreliable vehicles (the twin-engine situation on the BTR-60 in particular is terrible).


It appears Ukraine now has two Blackhawks. Given the scarcity of Soviet/Russian kit left that can be supplied to Ukraine, we should expect to see more of this.


A Ukrainian MiG-29 carrying the Hammer gliding bomb.


Spain is reportedly considering sending 20 more Leo-2A4s to Ukraine, but these tanks will require repairs. The Netherland are planning to hand over 3 mine trawlers to the Ukrainian Navy, and up to 300 Iveco Lynx MRAPs. The second is far more significant then the first in my opinion. Greece is considering the handover of 2000 Zuni rockets, 180 M72 RPGs, 90 000 90mm rounds (possibly old M67 munitions), and 70 144A1 155mm howitzers.


Ukrainian forces have been spotted with M1117 Guardian ASVs for the first time. Their deliveries were discussed as far back as '22.


A Ukrainian Oncilla 4X4 armored car. It's a Polish-manufactured version of the old Ukrainian Dozor-B.


Ukraine's M-55S spotted in the 127th TerDef Bde. This is fairly unusual, as most of these units don't have much in the way of armored vehicles. Prior to this the tanks were thought to be in a tank bde.


Russia is planning to open rail traffic to Crimea through Kherson and Zaporozhye this year. This will significantly reduce the importance of the Crimean bridge. A highway has already been built along this route, and this additional infrastructure will no doubt benefit the local economy.


Russian ships have begun ferrying containers from North Korea, again, after a lull.


Russian volunteers apparently purchased Starlink terminals for the Russian military.


Ukraine continues desperate recruiting efforts, grabbing people off the streets and in public transportation. This sort of thing goes on constantly, and the footage is appearing in a steady stream, I'm just posting this to show that it's still happening.


A Ukrainian military commissariat employee from L'vov region who was recently fired has apparently managed to purchase two houses, two apartments, and a 2021 Lexus. No doubt all on his honestly earned salary. His wife recently purchased a further 6 apartments, 5 in L'vov and 1 in Kiev. Her salary is reportedly 100 000 grivna.


A Ukrainian POW who's from Berdyansk tells an interesting story. He left occupied Berdyansk and traveled to Ukraine to enlist, and apparently his family and relatives were less then supportive. This comes after an interesting recent video put up by a Ukrainian blogger from Berdyansk who also left, and was discussing a conversation she had with a friend who stayed. She was somewhat shocked and upset by the realization that the people living in occupied Berdyansk don't seem to be particularly upset about Russian presence, or eager to support Ukraine. These two stories highlight the situation where within a single group of friends or even a single family some might be so pro-Ukrainian as to voluntarily enlist and some might be so pro-Russian as to not even take issue with having their home town occupied.


Irony of ironies some children returned from Russia to Ukraine apparently preferred it in Russia, according to Ukrainian sources.

 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
Ukraine continues desperate recruiting efforts, grabbing people off the streets
Why do you believe that these people were grabbed for forced enlisting and not arrested for another reason. Supporting the Russian occupation for example?

Feanor said:
within a single group of friends or even a single family some might be so pro-Ukrainian as to voluntarily enlist and some might be so pro-Russian as to not even take issue with having their home town occupied.
Yes, people are split on the question. It real;y depends what side of the propaganda they believe. There are people who chose to listen to Russian channels, and other to Western channels. Once they have chosen which chanel to listen, they are flooded with propaganda.

There is the same phenomenon within the so called ethnic Russian families in the Baltic states. Some are pro-West others are pro-Putin. There are family disputes. Even divorces because spouses hold opposite opinions.
A lot of of those Russian speaking were so pro-Putin that the moved from the Baltics to Russia.
They are offered incentive, stipendium. But it's unclear how helpful it is once you are there.

(I don't want to say ethnic Russian because they are definitely not like Russians from Russia. And sometimes non-Russian speakers also believes in Putin.)

In Russia, many people are convinced that NATO is about to attack Russia. They hear it on TV.
I imagine that in the occupied territories, they think the same.

Feanor said:
rony of ironies some children returned from Russia to Ukraine apparently preferred it in Russia
They were well taken care of. Russians want to keep these children.
The condition they found in Ukraine were maybe not as good because of the war. In Russia, they saw that there were no war.
In any case there is an explanation to this.

Feanor said:
Ukrainian shelling of Belgorod continues. Valuable military targets include residential buildings, a convenience store, a school stadium, and the local zoo.
Sure. Did you really expect that the Russians would report what Ukrainians successfully hit? ...As if they aimed at such targets.

Maybe the Ukes destroyed a zoopark anti-battery radar system? There is real;y a zoo in Belgorod? They don't have already enough monkeys like that, in the Russian army? Makes no sens at all to have zoo there. :D
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Why do you believe that these people were grabbed for forced enlisting and not arrested for another reason. Supporting the Russian occupation for example?
Spend some time on Ukrainian social media. It's a well known phenomenon. So much so that documenting each individual instance is an impossible task. Basic differences is that they're being grabbed not by police or SBU but by military commissariat personnel.

Yes, people are split on the question. It real;y depends what side of the propaganda they believe. There are people who chose to listen to Russian channels, and other to Western channels. Once they have chosen which chanel to listen, they are flooded with propaganda.

There is the same phenomenon within the so called ethnic Russian families in the Baltic states. Some are pro-West others are pro-Putin. There are family disputes. Even divorces because spouses hold opposite opinions.
A lot of of those Russian speaking were so pro-Putin that the moved from the Baltics to Russia.
They are offered incentive, stipendium. But it's unclear how helpful it is once you are there.

(I don't want to say ethnic Russian because they are definitely not like Russians from Russia. And sometimes non-Russian speakers also believes in Putin.)

In Russia, many people are convinced that NATO is about to attack Russia. They hear it on TV.
I imagine that in the occupied territories, they think the same.
Media sources are a part of it but I suspect there is also a certain reality. You mentioned below that in Russia there is no war. In Berdyansk and Melitopol' there is also basically no war. I also suspect that wages for any government employees and pensions for retirees were reset to the Russian standard, i.e. increased substantially over Ukrainian ones. That surely helps. The extra military presence around the area means soldiers spending money on leave, boosting the local economy. Infrastructure projects related to Russia's logistical corridor create jobs, and even when the workers are from outside the region, they still spend some money locally. On the most basic level the locals drive the same nice new highway that was built for Russian military logistics to Crimea. And so a local who watches Russian TV and notices the local economy is getting better, wages are increasing, if he runs a small business, he's making more money, if he's a teacher/police officer/firefighter/medical personnel/bus driver, he's making considerably more money. All of this influences people's mindsets. It's very hard to convince people something isn't true when it's in their self-interest to believe it is. So they often believe Russia's story.

They were well taken care of. Russians want to keep these children.
The condition they found in Ukraine were maybe not as good because of the war. In Russia, they saw that there were no war.
In any case there is an explanation to this.
Makes total sense. But it cuts pretty hard against the western narrative about kidnapped children as part of a genocidal plot.

Sure. Did you really expect that the Russians would report what Ukrainians successfully hit? ...As if they aimed at such targets.
Russian sources have reported hits on the Beriev plant in Taganrog, and the loss of A-50s and Su-35S, Russian sources have reported on destroyed BDKs, and oil refineries. Russian officialdom isn't going to report, but Russian blogs have published buckets of footage from Belgorod. None of it shows any military targets. Unless you have evidence to suggest otherwise, what we have is indiscriminate shelling of a populated area with no specific target. Actions that are awfully close to state terrorism. And this isn't the first time Ukraine has been caught doing this. They've done similar things to Donetsk for years.

Maybe the Ukes destroyed a zoopark anti-battery radar system? There is real;y a zoo in Belgorod? They don't have already enough monkeys like that, in the Russian army? Makes no sens at all to have zoo there. :D
Do you have a meaningful comment to make?

I counted 5 impacts (sans secondaries if there were):
Apparently at least 3 Storm Shadows landed. Targets not immediately clear though reportedly one office building was hit.

 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Apparently at least 3 Storm Shadows landed. Targets not immediately clear though reportedly one office building was hit.
The post suggests there were 3 total impacts, even if he mentions Storm Shadows explicitly. Perhaps true for the first area but in the distance we also see ground-level explosions.

Regarding 10 downed missiles that's probably just an outright lie. Russia lied about numbers in Syria all the time, so it surely does the same here. Ukraine simply doesn't have the capacity to be throwing 13 missiles at a single target. Perhaps they downed some decoys like MALD that Ukraine operates, or none at all.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The post suggests there were 3 total impacts, even if he mentions Storm Shadows explicitly. Perhaps true for the first area but in the distance we also see ground-level explosions.

Regarding 10 downed missiles that's probably just an outright lie. Russia lied about numbers in Syria all the time, so it surely does the same here. Ukraine simply doesn't have the capacity to be throwing 13 missiles at a single target. Perhaps they downed some decoys like MALD that Ukraine operates, or none at all.
MALDs are likely, Ukraine seems to be using those fairly consistently. I tend to treat impacts claimed as a minimal number. If Russia says 3 missiles landed, to me that means at least that many. I.e. the number Russia admits is the lowest number theoretically possible. As for claimed intercepts, those don't tend to be particularly meaningful.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
A look at Ukraine's recent strike on Crimea, it appears some of the missiles hit the harbor but missed. One hit a pier, another hit an empty dock. I'm wondering if Russia anticipated the attack and moved the ships shortly before the strike. Though of course that doesn't explain the pier.

 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Is there information that can be confirmed that the target of the strikes was the communications building of the Black Sea fleet there is some footage being shown of a blackened building?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
They may well have damaged them with near misses but an actual hit would produce significant visual damage. So far we don't see any. Maybe something will emerge but I'm skeptical.

Is there information that can be confirmed that the target of the strikes was the communications building of the Black Sea fleet there is some footage being shown of a blackened building?
No confirmation but they did hit a building of some sort. It would make sense for it to be related to BSF operations.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
They may well have damaged them with near misses but an actual hit would produce significant visual damage. So far we don't see any. Maybe something will emerge but I'm skeptical.
If they were directly hit and we haven't seen footage yet, this may mean better Russian opsec.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk admits publicaly that things are not going well with mobilisation...
Pavliuk said:
Russia might win due to public attitudes in Ukraine toward military draft offices Russia might win due to public attitudes in Ukraine toward military draft offices.
_______________________

Satellite pictures show consequences of Ukrainian strike on Sevastopol admiralty:



It doesn't look like an empty warehouse. It looks like an administrative building.
@Feanor Maybe full of irreplaceable electronic and very expensive high ranking officers?

Of course hiting one building won't change much. They should be able to destroy ten building in the compound. more Storm Shadows needed.
_________________________

Ukraine claims to have damaged one large landing ship. Not two.

Ukraine's military intelligence said:
The vessel suffered critical damage: a hole in the upper deck caused it to roll to the starboard side.

The invaders are continuously pumping water from the damaged ship.
_________________________

Defence line

Fortifications are being built in Ukraine's southern Odesa region.
If they build them there it means they don't feel self-asured with the way events can unfold. They are preparing for the worst.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
If the building hit was the building responsible for all communications for the Black Sea fleet ,with Russian bloggers claiming thirty officers killed and "stating not to go into details to bring joy to the enemy" this type of facility may need to be built where the new naval facilities are being built in Anaklia
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Ukrainians are said to have set up a passive acoustic detection network against Russian drones by installing thousands of cellphones on 2 meter poles, in turn connected to a data center that relays data to hundreds of AAA units.
In one day they claimed to have downed 80 drones out of 84 launched, without using expensive missiles.

Honestly it puzzled me how we see so many videos from Ukraine showing mobile machine gun crews shooting down drones that could have come from anywhere on the huge front. To run into a drone by accident requires extreme luck.
 

Fredled

Active Member
......
Honestly it puzzled me how we see so many videos from Ukraine showing mobile machine gun crews shooting down drones that could have come from anywhere on the huge front. To run into a drone by accident requires extreme luck.
Drones are very slow and noisy. Teams have time to turn their turret or machine gun in their direction. Sometimes snipers shoot them down. Quadcopters are more silent and and may be more difficult to detect. Also they are small and more difficult to hit. UAV with horizontal propellers (Lancet, Orlan, Shahed...) are very noisy and their large wing span makes them vulnerable from small arms fire. They are faster than quadcopters but still quiet slow.

Smartphones on 2m masts is very smart. They could use the camera too. They just need to find a way to control the smartphones remotely and interactively. Then develop an IA app.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Want an advise? Don't mess with that guy.
(The Vasyl Maliuk official fan page)


Russia no longer using Crimea Bridge to transport weapons

Vasyl Maliuk said:
Before our successful attacks, 42 to 46 trains carrying weapons and ammunition used to pass across the bridge on a daily basis. Today it’s four to five trains. Four carry passengers and another one – consumer goods. That is, the enemy does not use the bridge today at all to supply weapons and means of destruction
It means that the rail track of Kerch Bridge has been severely damaged despite the explosion being on the road part. It was not damaged by the explosion but by burning fuel spilling from wagons damaged by the explosion.
(I don't remember what the second attack did.)

He didn't say how much is transported by road instead of by train. One lane of the road bridge is open to traffic.

The Russians should expect more blasts...


On another topic:
He said:
There is a certain list of measures to maintain appropriate hygiene, that must be taken so that the enemy is unable to do this. But we still discovered this large number of these ‘penetrations’
He was talking about Cyberattacks targeting defence forces .

_______________________

Ukrainian Navy claims to have hit yet one more ship with a Neptune missile.

Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said:
Russia stole the warship from Ukraine in 2014 during the occupation of Crimea. It remained in the bay for nine years and the invaders began to dismantle it for spare parts, but in the tenth year of the war, they realized that they were running out of large landing ships, so the vessel was restored within a year.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Artillery shells deliveries: Not before second half of 2024 even in the context of the Czech Initiative (to buy shells abroad, i.e. outside the EU).
We can;t expect any major engagement from the Ukrainian forces, other than defensive, before they get these shells.

In the meantime Germany is sending 10 000 shells in emergency. Enough for 3 or 4 days of normal fights. But the Ukrainians will still have to save on shells tightly.
It looks like the delivery was really urgent.

If in the second half of the year, the Ukrainians can get new shells and F16's and perhaps some long or semi-long range missiles, it will make a change.

Armoured vehicle coalition : Partners (called so rather than "Allies"... to show that they are not at war with Russia?) understand that military needs will be long term.
They probably see that many of the previously supplied vehicles are out of service and that repair is not obvious.
link

Left Bank: Defence Forces South says that they hold their position despite Russian attacks. They attacks occure daily.

Odesa: Russian retaliated for the Belgorod Zoo. Botanical garden damaged by Russian strike..
The garden director said:
The botanical garden is planning to hold a Saturday volunteer call, during which residents will be able to help arboretum workers clear the area of glass shards.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
Defence line

Fortifications are being built in Ukraine's southern Odesa region.
If they build them there it means they don't feel self-asured with the way events can unfold. They are preparing for the worst.
I agree. I also think Odesa could be the line in the sand as far as NATO is concerned. The French are already making noises about deploying non-combatant troops in Ukraine. I suspect Poland would support them. I believe it is called the Tripwire strategy.
 
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