The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
@Feanor My point was that no one has the ability to stop the war in 48h, not even the President of the US. What Orban said was stupidity perpetuating this myth.
Agreed. Well... stupidity from the standpoint of someone who wants to end the war in Ukraine. Orban was pursuing his own political goals within the context of which the statement was arguably not stupid, just dishonest.

Of course that Trump talked about funding for Ukraine. My point was that it's not funds to Ukraine that matter but the decision from the Russian leadership.
If Putin's advisers and ministers start to disagree with him and don't want to waste more money into the Special Military Operation or want to limit the expenses, then the war has a chance to end.

If the West completely stops funding the Ukrainian war, 1/ I's not a given that the war will stop and 2/ we have no garantee whatsoever that war will not continue beyond Ukraine.
Nazy Germany didn't stop at annexing Austria and Slovakia.
I think there is part of what you say it true and part of what you say is false. There are two parties that can end the war by near-unilateral decision-making. They are Russia and Ukraine. I say near-unilateral because in reality Ukraine wants Crimea back, and that's not a real option for Russian leadership. Withdrawing to the Feb '22 line, or even to the '14 Russian state border + Crimea won't necessarily end the fighting, and surrendering a territory whose population has a supermajority of ethnic Russians, and who were definitely in favor of annexation would be a massive betrayal. In reality even surrendering Donestk and Lugansk, territories where the population today (what they wanted in '14 is a different story) wants nothing to do with the Ukraine that has been their enemy for the past decade would be a major betrayal not just in perception but in reality. So ending the war unilaterally is only possible by a borderline surrender on Russia's part. And of course Ukraine can also end the war very easily. Russia has declared annexation of 4 regions, so give Russia those 4 regions (possibly in exchange for reparations disguised as economic assistance) and agree to neutral nation status with some sort of arms control treaty between Russia and Ukraine. The war can be ended by Ukraine too. If this doesn't sound particularly reasonable, well you're right. It isn't. But neither is expecting Russia to give up Crimea, Donestk, and Lugansk.

As to the Nazi Germany comparison, let's not forget that Nazi Germany was able to rapidly and easily overrun these countries, Nazi Germany had a prevailing ideology that dictated this kind of aggressive expansionism, and Nazi Germany was well supported by allies (Italy, Hungary, Romania, Finland). At the time it annexed Czechoslovakia (the country of Slovakia certainly didn't exist at that time) Poland was effectively a Germany ally, grabbing a piece of Czechoslovakia for itself. Russia spend 2 months losing a mobile war in Ukraine, and settled down for ~2 years of positional stalemate. A peace that gives Russia few low population areas it managed to conquer, and recognizes the realities of '14 (loss of Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk) doesn't enable Russia to continue invading other countries. If they can barely handle Ukraine earning themselves a Pyrrhic victory, what chances do they have to overrun other areas?

I disagree, Putin/Russia could make public what they want and we would know where to start. You don't need negotiations to know what they want. So far Putin has only talked about abstract concepts like demilitarization, denazification and protecting Russian minorities. Sometimes hinting, or more than just hinting, at the eradication of the Ukrainian state. He never posed territorial claims. He never said "I want this and this". He only said that the recently annexed territories have always been part of Russia and will be for ever and that it's not negotiable. But he never put a geographical limit to his vision of the Russian borders. In his mind, Russia has no border. As long as they are Russians somewhere, it's Russia.
Perhaps Putin is intentionally keeping his options open so he doesn't have to commit to a position before sitting down at the table. I can't speak confidently, but if it was me, that's what I would do. You want to know what I want? Sit down at the table and we can talk. You don't want to sit down at the table? Then why would I want you to know what I want? Being predictable isn't a good thing in conflicts.

So what can be negotiated, in your opinion?
Just about anything can be negotiated. Where to go to dinner with your significant other, what level of nuclear arsenal is acceptable, which part of Poland goes to the USSR and which part to Nazi Germany. Negotiations are bargaining. Bargaining of some sort is possible on just about every topic that exists. The problem Ukraine has is that their current bargaining position is terrible. They have little to offer besides surrendering some territory. What else can they give Russia? If they don't want to give anything, they can't get anything. Hence Ukraine's unwillingness to negotiate. If ones position is that it's unfair to expect Ukraine to give up anything since they're the victim, then ones position (whether they're willing to admit this or not) is against negotiations. Negotiations aren't about justice or fairness. They're about striking a deal. Right now any realistic negotiation would involve Ukraine deciding what territory they're willing to lose in exchange for getting something back, and possibly some sort of reparations. If Ukraine can come up with something Russia wants, they can improve their bargaining position. If they continue to lose territory and population, their bargaining position will get weaker. If we believe that this war ends at the negotiating table, and this seems to be the consensus from most observers, then the only real question is this; will Ukraine's bargaining position tomorrow be stronger then it is today?

There is no miracle receipt against war. But respecting borders established by the UN is a good start and has been effective. Even in the Middle East, and the Syria-Iraq-Kurdistan triangle, borders are still respected and no country is trying to invade the other. They use proxies, political influence. OK. But they don't invade.

The wars after the split-up of Yugoslavia happened precisely because there were no recognised border and no recognised entities. (And because some of them decided to use violence).

Nobody has recognised Taiwan as an independent state, even thought the West attitude to this issue is borderline, so to speak.

There are no recognised border for the Palestinian state, and war there is endless.

Borders are not sacred cows, but they are sacred.
The UN doesn't typically establish borders. The borders of Ukraine were established by Soviet leadership shortly after the Russian Revolution. While I'm touched by your respect for the sanctity of their decisions, I'm far less inclined to consider lines drawn by political figures from 100+ years ago sacred, especially when they rather poorly correspond to realities on the ground. I won't address the other examples to avoid tangents in what is already a very long reply, but it's fairly clear the reason the US doesn't recognize Taiwan is not because Chinese border are sacred but for political reasons. If respecting a border prevents a war, great let's do it. But in this case the war exists and can not be prevented, barring time travel. It's already happened. If your priority is peace, then at this point the question is, does insisting on the '91 border shorten the war or lengthen it?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The cross border attack circus continues. Ukraine's "Russian Legion" appears to be filming footage in Sumy region Ukraine and trying to pass it off for the village of Tetkino in Russia, where no sign of Ukrainian troops is visible. Russian soldiers are on the streets of Tetkino but it certainly doesn't look like a combat zone.


Russia has released more footage of strikes they're alleging are against Ukrainian forces participating in these attacks, including 2 tanks getting hit, what is claimed as an FPV drone crew getting hit, and a gliding bomb strike on the Zhuravlevka border check point where Ukrainian forces are located.


Footage published by Ukrainian sources showing two allegedly Russian BMDs getting hit by Ukrainian FPV drones. However I don't see any infantry, or any movement from the vehicles themselves. Given that Ukraine operated some BMDs pre-war, and captured quite a few Russian ones in '22, this might be a staged video of two possibly disabled BMDs inside Ukraine getting hit. The video shows some personnel near the vehicles before the strike, but none during the FPV footage, at least that I can make out. We also don't see the vehicles move, at all. Given the poor qualtiy of the video, I'm not even completely certain these are BMDs.


Footage of prior day fighting at the Nekhoteevka checkpoint. Apparently Ukrainian infantry entered the checkpoint, came under Russian fire, and then withdrew under the cover of their own tanks, one of which was lost.


Ukrainian infantry dismounts from an M113 as a Russian UAV watches, in preparation for their cross-border assault.


Ukraine continues cross-border drone strikes, hitting a Russian oil refinery in Ryazan', with Russian official sources claiming 58 Ukrainian drones downed, but no word on how many got through (clearly not 0). Some UAVs were downed in Voronezh region, where no successful strikes were reported.

 

Larry_L

Active Member
There are many reports of An Il-76 losing an engine over Russia. It was reported to have inhaled a bird or several, been hit by a Ukrainian drone, mistakenly shot down by AD, and mechanical failure. It is said to have safely made an emergency landing in a cemetery, crashed in a fireball in a forest, been ferrying Su-50 crew who died, survived, and on and on. From the videos posted there is a high probability that as a minimum the aircraft will not fly again. Several vids show the engine on fire.




The engine falls off in this video.


 

Vanquish

Member
The following is a vid of a conversation between Macron and Putin several days before the invasion of Ukraine.

Seems pretty clear to me that Putin had no intention of negotiating a peaceful resolution. In regards to the situation on the ground now. Should negotiations eventually take place to end Putin's 3 day S.M.O. I expect the Ukrainian territories currently occupied by the invading Russian forces will be lost to Ukraine. The only way I could ever see this as being acceptable to Ukraine is if they're allowed into NATO so in the future when Russia decides they want just a little bit more, Ukraine will have an answer.
 

KipPotapych

Active Member
The cross border attack circus continues. Ukraine's "Russian Legion" appears to be filming footage in Sumy region Ukraine and trying to pass it off for the village of Tetkino in Russia, where no sign of Ukrainian troops is visible. Russian soldiers are on the streets of Tetkino but it certainly doesn't look like a combat zone.


Russia has released more footage of strikes they're alleging are against Ukrainian forces participating in these attacks, including 2 tanks getting hit, what is claimed as an FPV drone crew getting hit, and a gliding bomb strike on the Zhuravlevka border check point where Ukrainian forces are located.


Footage published by Ukrainian sources showing two allegedly Russian BMDs getting hit by Ukrainian FPV drones. However I don't see any infantry, or any movement from the vehicles themselves. Given that Ukraine operated some BMDs pre-war, and captured quite a few Russian ones in '22, this might be a staged video of two possibly disabled BMDs inside Ukraine getting hit. The video shows some personnel near the vehicles before the strike, but none during the FPV footage, at least that I can make out. We also don't see the vehicles move, at all. Given the poor qualtiy of the video, I'm not even completely certain these are BMDs.


Footage of prior day fighting at the Nekhoteevka checkpoint. Apparently Ukrainian infantry entered the checkpoint, came under Russian fire, and then withdrew under the cover of their own tanks, one of which was lost.


Ukrainian infantry dismounts from an M113 as a Russian UAV watches, in preparation for their cross-border assault.


Ukraine continues cross-border drone strikes, hitting a Russian oil refinery in Ryazan', with Russian official sources claiming 58 Ukrainian drones downed, but no word on how many got through (clearly not 0). Some UAVs were downed in Voronezh region, where no successful strikes were reported.

What a circus. This one is probably a contender for the dumbest thing I saw in this war.

Ukrainian sources confirmed everything the Russians said so far (what I saw, at least). This one says that they didn’t even try to geolocate so that not to reveal the location of the “partisans”, but the Russians did so themselves and the video was taken in Ryzhivka, Ukraine. The post also says that “something like this never happened before, but here it is again” (lol):


The comments to the post are pretty much in line with “the Russians are idiots regardless of the side they are fighting on”, “clowns”, “discrediting GUR”, “loss of people and equipment again for no reason”, and so on. Many are having a good chuckle about it. But there are also claims that Ukraine lost more people and equipment in this circus than they did on an average day in Avdiivka.

The same source geo-confirmed the failed attack, in line with the Russian claims, and they never crossed the Russian border:


Regarding the destroyed/damaged armoured vehicle, whatever that was, it has been geolocated to be in Tetkino. I provided the source yesterday (Twitter), but here is a snapshot of it:



Whether it is valid or not, I do not know (but I do not have a reason to doubt it, really).


There are many reports of An Il-76 losing an engine over Russia. It was reported to have inhaled a bird or several, been hit by a Ukrainian drone, mistakenly shot down by AD, and mechanical failure. It is said to have safely made an emergency landing in a cemetery, crashed in a fireball in a forest, been ferrying Su-50 crew who died, survived, and on and on. From the videos posted there is a high probability that as a minimum the aircraft will not fly again.
From what I saw, there was no speculation about it in the Russian sources. Every source indicated that the (4th) engine caught on fire right after take off, they tried to return and land, but crushed a minute short. The plane is gone and so are 15 (some sources said 16) people who were on board. The engine fell off and it wasn’t clear at the time I read whether they crushed due to the wing damage caused by the fire, loss of control (same as the former, basically), or if another engine was damaged as well/caught fire and they lost power. Something like that.

In the video of the “partisan” interview I posted yesterday, the host asked him if they had anything to do with this aircraft or if they can confirm the “downing”. The “partisan” was clearly caught off guard and didn’t know about the plane. He said they can neither confirm nor deny at the moment.

I don;t believe they will go very far this time neither. IMO, it's just diversive actions to make Russians feel nervous. The Wagner rebellion had been crushed in less than 48 hours. And they had much more fire power than these Free Russian Liberation Armies (or whatever they call them).

Last time they entered Russia with one BTR and retreated after it was hit by an helicopter strike and a few artillery salvos. But the mere fact that they are trying again shows that they are not short of resources. And maybe this time they will be better prepared.
I do not think it makes anyone nervous and the Russians were prepared for it, judging by what happened. It also appears (to me) that the border is now mined.

Last time they lost a few vehicles, about a dozen, if I recall correctly. Last time, the Russians weren’t prepared at all and it took them a day to get their act together (again, from memory), but then they struck hard and these guys took some casualties in personnel and equipment. They even got into a couple/few villages before that, if I recall correctly.

This is their third such outing, I believe. Likely the last?

Overall, not sure what the purpose was, but the few minutes on the Ukrainian TV “for the masses” clearly isn’t worth the cost and effort. Especially considering what a joke it turned out to be.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It appears the cross-border efforts are continuing with Ukrainian losses mounting. To sum it up in general, the military side of the effort seems to be an unmitigated disaster for Ukrainian forces so far. There are at this point ~10 destroyed vehicles we have confirmed on video, and many KIAs from the footage below.

Ukrainian forces crossed the border and approached the village of Spodaryusheno, but took massive casualties and fell back. Russian social media sources are reporting that the incursion was made up of many foreign citizens including Russian and Belorussian citizens. Russian officialdom is reporting 195 Ukrainian KIA which for once doesn't look ridiculous on its face. Warning footage of corpses.


The location where the mass casualties took place, according to Russian sources. It's on the outskirts of Spodaryushino and about 300m from the state border.


A series of Russian lancet strikes against Ukrainian vehicles, allegedly all part of the current fighting at the border.


Russia also responded with a series of strikes against targets in Sumy region hitting a bridge, and an alleged Ukrainian staging area, some sort of building. The bridge in question is located in Velikaya Pisarevka, a few kms from the border near Kozinka.


Most strangely there are reports of a Ukrainian airborne assault force using helicopters to land at Kozinka, Belgorod region. I can't help but wonder if in the confusion Russian reinforcements arriving by helicopter aren't being misreported. Note Kozinka is about ~15 kms south-east of Spodaryushino and is right on the border next to the Grayvoron border checkpoint.


A video of pro-Ukrainian Chechen fighters at the Russian border. Note that when we talk about "Russian citizens" it's likely many of these Chechens also fall into this category.


A column of Ukrainian vehicles near the Russian border being watched by a Russian UAV. It appears there are Bradleys in the column, a poor use of such scarce resources.


Damage in Belgorod from recent Ukrainian UAV strikes and shelling. There again don't appear to be any military targets hit. We have some damaged cars in front of a shopping center, and residential buildings.

 

Fredled

Active Member
Larry_L said:
There are many reports of An Il-76 losing an engine over Russia. It was reported to have inhaled a bird
It's the swan migration season, so it's possible if the plane flew at very low altitude. Else it can be anything else.
Friendly AD fire ranks highest in the cause of plane crashes in Russia for the moment.

Vanquish said:
The only way I could ever see this as being acceptable to Ukraine is if they're allowed into NATO so in the future when Russia decides they want just a little bit more, Ukraine will have an answer.
This is the most probable scenario. However Putin has already rejected any talk involving Ukraine's membership in NATO.

Feanor said:
It appears the cross-border efforts are continuing with Ukrainian losses mounting. To sum it up in general, the military side of the effort seems to be an unmitigated disaster for Ukrainian forces so far...
....
A column of Ukrainian vehicles near the Russian border being watched by a Russian UAV.
It looks like the Russians saw them coming.

KipPotapych said:
Last time they lost a few vehicles, about a dozen, if I recall correctly.
They didn't have a dozen military vehicles with them. I remember that they lost one BMP, likely the only one they had, and then retreated. They suffered about 50 causalities. They entered Russia up to 10km, max.

If this time they came with Bradleys, it was a much bigger operation.

Feanor said:
Damage in Belgorod from recent Ukrainian UAV strikes and shelling. There again don't appear to be any military targets hit.
There neither:
Sumy
Karkiv
Kherson
Kryvvii Ryh
Nikopol

And that's only today. Everyday there are more.

Feanor said:
Withdrawing to the Feb '22 line, or even to the '14 Russian state border + Crimea won't necessarily end the fighting, and surrendering a territory whose population has a supermajority of ethnic Russians, and who were definitely in favour of annexation would be a massive betrayal. In reality even surrendering Donestk and Lugansk, territories where the population today (what they wanted in '14 is a different story) wants nothing to do with the Ukraine that has been their enemy for the past decade would be a major betrayal not just in perception but in reality.
If you are talking abut the population, they don't give a damn who is ther government. These population had in the past expressed a preference for joining Russia for several reasons. But nobody would have fought, killed or sacrifice their lives for that. For them the most important is that this war ends, no matter in which country they will live later.
They don;t see any economic incentive from either side and don't believe there would be any.

This is also true for the Ukrainian side to a large extend. But Ukrainians see a clear economic advantage in joining the West. So they have more motivation to support the war against Russia.

Now the official Russian narative is that if Ukrainian soldiers take the DonBas and Zaporizha, there will be a genocide of hundreds of thousands of ethnic russians. And, possibly, some poeple believe it and are scared.

The only ones who will be betrayed are the militia men and the pro-Russian officials and civil servant (if there is still something civil left overthere). But they have themselves betrayed their country. So serves them well.

Feanor said:
But neither is expecting Russia to give up Crimea, Donestk, and Lugansk.
Because they have the military power to hold these regions. The same could be said for Kiev had they succeded to take it. Or for whatever place they could have taken. Or the whole Ukraine.
Now, if the Russian army is defeated and Russian soldiers desert massively in a chaotic withdrawal, then reasonable expectations will change quickly.

Putin has not indicated that he could give up anything in a negootiated peace agreement.

you said:
As to the Nazi Germany comparison, let's not forget that Nazi Germany was able to rapidly and easily overrun these countries, Nazi Germany had a prevailing ideology that dictated this kind of aggressive expansionism,
Same with Putin's Russia. Russia has easily overrun large areas of Ukraine. Almost without a fight 2014, and with Blitzkrieg speed in 2022. Then the Western Allies came (coincidence?).

Putin has also this ideology dictating expansionism based on historical grounds, Pieter the Great inheritage (and other BS), and the concept of Lebensraum for the Russian nation. With a submitted buffer land between this Lebensraum and the eternal ennemies of Russia.

The only difference is that Russia may not have as many allies as Nazy Germany did. Still they have Iran, Syria and NK. And China to some extent.

Feanor said:
If they can barely handle Ukraine earning themselves a Pyrrhic victory, what chances do they have to overrun other areas?
If the Ukrainian resistance crumbles, the Russian army won't have to face any opponent in Ukraine anymore. And after a year or two, they will be able to focus to their next target.
They will always find a pretext. Like Poland should get out of NATO because it's a threat to Russian sovereign border security. Or Latvia should be invaded to protect the Russian community oppressed by the Nazy Latvian regime.
(I'm not kidding, that's what has been said in Russia for years.)

you said:
Perhaps Putin is intentionally keeping his options open so he doesn't have to commit to a position before sitting down at the table. ... You want to know what I want? Sit down at the table and we can talk. You don't want to sit down at the table? Then why would I want you to know what I want?
And how serious does that look?

you said:
The problem Ukraine has is that their current bargaining position is terrible. They have little to offer besides surrendering some territory. What else can they give Russia? If they don't want to give anything, they can't get anything.
....
If we believe that this war ends at the negotiating table, and this seems to be the consensus from most observers, then the only real question is this; will Ukraine's bargaining position tomorrow be stronger then it is today?
The current consensus is that Ukraine will be in a better position in one or two years.
Stoltenberg said:
Europe is fully committed to help Ukraine militarily for another year or two.

If Ukraine wanted to stop the war right now, yes, it wouldn't be a good position to negotiate. But why would they do that when they haven't got the F16's and long range missiles yet?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The following is a vid of a conversation between Macron and Putin several days before the invasion of Ukraine.

It seems to me to highlight how they are literally talking past each other. Ukraine signed an agreement whereby they took on obligations to complete the Minsk Accords, that included modifying the Ukrainian constitution and passing certain laws. And here is Macron stating that it's ridiculous to expect Ukraine to pass laws suggested by separatists. In other words, it's ridiculous to expect Ukraine to actually implement the Minsk Accords. It seems to perfectly underline the mess that led to the current war.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
There neither:
Sumy
Karkiv
Kherson
Kryvvii Ryh
Nikopol

And that's only today. Everyday there are more.
If we don't dissect the distinction between the Shahed and Ukrainian MLRS strikes, and we simply take your argument as presented, it means Ukraine's behavior is the same as Russia's. What better indictment of Ukraine's behavior can there be?

If you are talking abut the population, they don't give a damn who is ther government. These population had in the past expressed a preference for joining Russia for several reasons. But nobody would have fought, killed or sacrifice their lives for that. For them the most important is that this war ends, no matter in which country they will live later.
They don;t see any economic incentive from either side and don't believe there would be any.

This is also true for the Ukrainian side to a large extend. But Ukrainians see a clear economic advantage in joining the West. So they have more motivation to support the war against Russia.

Now the official Russian narative is that if Ukrainian soldiers take the DonBas and Zaporizha, there will be a genocide of hundreds of thousands of ethnic russians. And, possibly, some poeple believe it and are scared.

The only ones who will be betrayed are the militia men and the pro-Russian officials and civil servant (if there is still something civil left overthere). But they have themselves betrayed their country. So serves them well.
You're awfully confident about public sentiment. It doesn't match what I have observed. We can agree to disagree on this.

Because they have the military power to hold these regions. The same could be said for Kiev had they succeded to take it. Or for whatever place they could have taken. Or the whole Ukraine.
Now, if the Russian army is defeated and Russian soldiers desert massively in a chaotic withdrawal, then reasonable expectations will change quickly.
Sure. That would be the improved negotiating position I mentioned above. You seem to be implying likelihood. I don't see it.

Putin has not indicated that he could give up anything in a negootiated peace agreement.
This our second or third go on this merry-go-round. We don't have a clear negotiating position from Russia. We don't know what they would or wouldn't be willing to give up. Ukraine currently has a law banning negotiating with him anyway, so what would be the point of presenting such a position? Recently when Erdogan discussed the possibility of a peace conference with Zelensky, Zelensky stated that the conference should be held without Russia. Has Zelensky indicated he is willing to give up anything?

Same with Putin's Russia. Russia has easily overrun large areas of Ukraine. Almost without a fight 2014, and with Blitzkrieg speed in 2022. Then the Western Allies came (coincidence?).
You're simply wrong. Russia didn't overrun the Donbas in '14, Russia capitalized on an internal civil conflict and supported the side they felt was favorable for them. And western allies didn't arrive. They sent buckets of aid. Your analogy is not accurate.

Putin has also this ideology dictating expansionism based on historical grounds, Pieter the Great inheritage (and other BS), and the concept of Lebensraum for the Russian nation. With a submitted buffer land between this Lebensraum and the eternal ennemies of Russia.
Putin has glued together bits of imperialism, nationalism, Soviet nostalgia, and religion to try and produce an ideology. But he doesn't have a functioning ideology. He has a poor and ineffective substitute. It's one of the reasons modern day Russia is so bad at using soft power.

The only difference is that Russia may not have as many allies as Nazy Germany did. Still they have Iran, Syria and NK. And China to some extent.
Russia doesn't have allies. Russia has supporters, mostly opportunistic ones. There are distinct links between fascist ideology in Nazi Germany and other countries. Russia doesn't have this. DPRK troops aren't on the front lines in Ukraine, neither are Iranian ones. Iran was an ally of Russia in the Syrian War, but that's a different war and a different set of circumstances.

If the Ukrainian resistance crumbles, the Russian army won't have to face any opponent in Ukraine anymore. And after a year or two, they will be able to focus to their next target.
They will always find a pretext. Like Poland should get out of NATO because it's a threat to Russian sovereign border security. Or Latvia should be invaded to protect the Russian community oppressed by the Nazy Latvian regime.
(I'm not kidding, that's what has been said in Russia for years.)
Good point. One conclusion is that the west should mobilize the necessary resources and means to defeat Russia if this is at all possible. But if it isn't possible, or if the political will to do so is lacking, another possible conclusion is that Ukraine shouldn't fight to the point of collapse lest it find itself completely overrun and lose much more then it currently has.

And how serious does that look?
I don't understand your remark. Ukraine doesn't wish to negotiate with Russia. Ukraine doesn't wish this so strongly they reject attempts by third parties to suggest it, and have passed a law banning it. Putin hasn't stated a negotiating position. I have outlined a plausible reason why he may not want to do so. Is there a reason you think he should? From where I sit neither side is ready to negotiate on the other's terms because neither side is really ready to stop fighting and come to some sort of compromise. This means the war continues and we can only extrapolate from current events and trends as to what happens from here.

The current consensus is that Ukraine will be in a better position in one or two years.
Europe is fully committed to help Ukraine militarily for another year or two.
That was the consensus two years ago. Yet Ukraine is in a worse position then it was in the fall of '22. And certainly in a worse negotiating position then it was at the Istanbul meeting. Back then they were being offered all their territory back, minus the LDNR and Crimea. Personally I also disagree with this prognosis. I think that regardless of battlefield realities, this war is doing irreparable damage to the fabric of Ukraine as a country. The massive exodus of population is far worse then any current territorial losses, and the longer it goes on for the harder it will be to get any of those people to come back. I think Ukraine needs to think long and hard about how many lives they're willing to sacrifice to regain the ruins of Donbas and the mostly empty steppes of Zaporozhye and Kherson.

If Ukraine wanted to stop the war right now, yes, it wouldn't be a good position to negotiate. But why would they do that when they haven't got the F16's and long range missiles yet?
Good point. Long range strike is definitely the way Ukraine will win this war. If Russia had plentiful long range strike capabilities they would have won already right? This war is being fought by troops on the front. I believe it will be won or lost by those troops. And I don't believe the west will ever provide Ukraine with a volume of long range strike capabilities that can even come close to what Russia has been doing so far.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
Ukraine doesn't wish to negotiate with Russia. Ukraine doesn't wish this so strongly they reject attempts by third parties to suggest it, and have passed a law banning it. Putin hasn't stated a negotiating position.
But Medvediev did.

If you want to know why Ukraine refuses to negotiate:
intellinews.com said:
Dmitry Medvedev's proposed solution, which he called “calm,” “quite realistic” and “humane for everyone,” would see Ukraine admit military defeat and become a part of the Russian Federation. Furthermore, it would require the United Nations to recognise “the Nazi character” of Kyiv, and see its state apparatus dismantled, including the parliament.

Under his plan, Ukraine would also be forced to pay reparations to Russia, “including payments to the relatives of the dead citizens.”
link
(I don't think comments are necessary)

Feanor said:
Ukraine needs to think long and hard about how many lives they're willing to sacrifice to regain the ruins of Donbas and the mostly empty steppes of Zaporozhye and Kherson.
They don't fight for the ruins of the Donbas. They fight for the very existence of the state. If the eastern front collapses, Russians won;t stop at the administrative borders of Donetsk's province. That's the most ridiculous statement I'v read in the press.
But the further east, north and south, they repel the Russians, the safer they will be.

Feanor said:
And certainly in a worse negotiating position then it was at the Istanbul meeting. Back then they were being offered all their territory back, minus the LDNR and Crimea.
Yes, but on the conditions that it never joins NATO or the EU, that the Zelensky's government be sacked and that a pro-Russian government returns to the power.
Now give me your definition of "all their territory back". LOL.

Ukrainians are not trying to get a better position to negotiate. They are trying to be in a better position to repel relentless attacks. Their concern #1 is to get more Patriots, Iris-T, shells, Himars and F16. Not to sit at a table. Because negotiating is pointless if you are not in a position to defend yourself from further attacks. Negotiations are useful only when the other feels that you could have some military advantage.

Feanor said:
Long range strike is definitely the way Ukraine will win this war. If Russia had plentiful long range strike capabilities they would have won already right?
Yes that's right. Russia would have won the war had it used its long range capabilities on useful targets. It started to score gains on the battlefield now that they use it on Ukrainian (military) positions.

If Ukrainians could replicate a few times what they did when they got the semi-long range ATACMS, they have a chance. Or at least a better chance than now.
 

KipPotapych

Active Member
They didn't have a dozen military vehicles with them. I remember that they lost one BMP, likely the only one they had, and then retreated. They suffered about 50 causalities. They entered Russia up to 10km, max.

If this time they came with Bradleys, it was a much bigger operation.
I don’t want to surf the web and look for other sources (they are there, and I believe I posted some here previously as well), but from a quick search of this forum, here are a few lost vehicles from the last “raid”:

Update Belgorod Region.

[…]

According to Military Observer Ukrainian vehicle losses are broken down as follows; 2 MaxxPro MRAPs, 3 Humvees, 1 KrAZ Cobra, one AMZ Dzik-2. Second link has some more photos.

I am fairly certain there were a few more, including the BMP you may be talking about.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
But Medvediev did.

If you want to know why Ukraine refuses to negotiate:
link
(I don't think comments are necessary)
I'm reasonably confident he's mocking Ukraine. He's made a number of highly incendiary statements recently. He seems to be trying to ride the nationalist train as part of his own future political plans.

They don't fight for the ruins of the Donbas. They fight for the very existence of the state. If the eastern front collapses, Russians won;t stop at the administrative borders of Donetsk's province. That's the most ridiculous statement I'v read in the press.
But the further east, north and south, they repel the Russians, the safer they will be.
This is our definite third go on the merry-go-round. I think we can just agree to disagree. You believe they will eventually repel Russia. I believe on a long timeline they won't, and will suffer worse the longer the war goes on. This is separate from the grim reality that there is a point in the damage to Ukraine as a state where even regaining the lost territory won't make up for the cost spent doing so.

Yes, but on the conditions that it never joins NATO or the EU, that the Zelensky's government be sacked and that a pro-Russian government returns to the power.
Now give me your definition of "all their territory back". LOL.
I believe I was clear about what I meant above.

Ukrainians are not trying to get a better position to negotiate. They are trying to be in a better position to repel relentless attacks. Their concern #1 is to get more Patriots, Iris-T, shells, Himars and F16. Not to sit at a table. Because negotiating is pointless if you are not in a position to defend yourself from further attacks. Negotiations are useful only when the other feels that you could have some military advantage.
I understand your position, and I don't think we're going to resolve our disagreement on this. The west has not shown willingness to mobilize their industry to war footing. Currently Russian new military production is outpacing deliveries of aid to Ukraine. This is without considering the stuff being pulled from storage. If the US steps up to the plate in a bigger way this could change, but right now it is what it is.

Yes that's right. Russia would have won the war had it used its long range capabilities on useful targets. It started to score gains on the battlefield now that they use it on Ukrainian (military) positions.

If Ukrainians could replicate a few times what they did when they got the semi-long range ATACMS, they have a chance. Or at least a better chance than now.
You're just plain wrong. There was no way Russia could have used their long range strike capabilities in the manner you describe. The issue was the ability to find, identify, and make the decision to strike in a relevant timeframe. Russian failures in this regard have much to do with the incomplete nature of the military reforms Russia undertook '08-'11. They never completed reforms for the entire armed forces resulting in situations where some elite units could operate quite effectively but many regular units were still firmly stuck in the '80s. When they had to pull not ~40 000 troops but ~180 000 troops, they simply didn't have enough effective units to do that. Look at what the 8th Army with the 810th Marines spearheading the assault did in southern Ukraine. Consider the integration of FACs into their assault on Mariupol'. Now consider that Maj. Gen. Romanov was killed in a Ukrainian strike trying to close the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk pocket, because he had to move his HQ forward, due to issues controlling his forces at a distance. Some Russian units were operating in the 21st century, and some simply weren't. This is the reason Russia failed. And current Russian gains on Ukrainian positions have to do with a consistent advantage in armor and firepower. Russian infantry still appears to be completely mechanized, Russian artillery continues to outshoot Ukrainian by volume, and Russia combines these with EW, UAVs, and other resources to capitalize on local gains all over the front. Striking an oil refinery in Ryazan' or sinking another landing ship isn't going help Ukraine overcome any of this. Challenging Russian air superiority could make a bigger different, but it requires considerable numbers of modern aircraft. Until we get more clarity on what the F-16s they're getting actually look like, it will be hard to say if they can do that.

I don’t want to surf the web and look for other sources (they are there, and I believe I posted some here previously as well), but from a quick search of this forum, here are a few lost vehicles from the last “raid”:


I am fairly certain there were a few more, including the BMP you may be talking about.
It appears I'm misremembering. Thanks for digging that up.
 
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KipPotapych

Active Member
It appears I'm misremembering. Thanks for digging that up.
The location and circumstances for those losses were also confirmed by Reuters later, by the way (Ukrainians alleged that it was a photo op at the time):

Footage of some destroyed vehicles released by the Russian defense ministry showed U.S.-made military hardware such as Humvee military trucks. Reuters was able to confirm the location of damaged vehicles and surrounding details shown in the video, though could not verify the date it was filmed.



But Medvediev did.

If you want to know why Ukraine refuses to negotiate:
link
(I don't think comments are necessary)
Medvedev became a joker. I’d compare him to Danilov or someone even more nuts - those who suggest that Russian Federation needs to dissolve, give up the nukes, disarm, etc, all for the safety of Ukraine.

Yes, but on the conditions that it never joins NATO or the EU, that the Zelensky's government be sacked and that a pro-Russian government returns to the power.
NATO issue aside, none of it is true according to the reliable public sources. I don’t know if it is Ukrainian authorities spreading propaganda or where this rubbish comes from and this is not the first time I see it. As far as I know, there was only one “legit” western report on the negotiations and the accompanying conditions. The Wall Street Journal reported recently that they actually reviewed the 17-page document outlining those conditions. This is the original article (behind a paywall):


I won’t go on blabbing (as I am often guilty of) about it, but will mention that, according to that report, the draft specifically stated Ukraine would not be prohibited from seeking EU membership. The final draft was also to be signed into the Treaty by Putin and Zelensky, clearly suggesting that there was no forced government change on the table. Furthermore, Crimea was to remain under the Russian influence. Note that there are no demands of any formal recognition. Of course, Ukraine was not to be a part of any military bloc, mainly NATO, and its forces severely limited. In addition, prohibition of foreign weapons and forces on the Ukrainian territory was to be put in place. Russian language to be an equal counterpart to Ukrainian, which the UA side didn’t agree to. As of special note, the status of the eastern Ukraine was to be determined by Putin and Zelensky when finalizing the draft (I am assuming independence, but I have been wrong with my assumptions before, which I will quote at the end of this section of this post). I am going to quote the following because this seems to be the prevailing theme in all reports that are based on reality:

[…]the document reflects deep-rooted Russian fears that the West, led by the United States, has been developing Ukraine for years as a so-called "anti-Russia" to undermine, restrain and attempt to gain control over Russia.

To be frank, this is a much better deal than I thought they were negotiating, according to the report above, and I went on record stating my opinion here exactly a month ago:

Now consider the Russian position and their “offerings”. We don’t really know what was on the table in spring of 2022. We can guess and my guess would be as good as anyone else’s, but at the very least there would be forced federalization of Ukraine (more likely recognition of L/DNR independence), recognition of Crimea as Russian, neutral status of Ukraine, etc and the worst, all of the above, plus Zelensky’s resignation, territories held by Russia at that time recognized as Russian, etc. The latter clearly doesn’t seem very probable (not a couple of months into it anyway) and the real “deal” was likely somewhere in between. Perhaps, something like neutral status of Ukraine, recognition of L/DNR, the “landbridge”, while Russians would withdraw from Kiev (which they already did by the end of it) and I would guess the right bank of the river and Kharkiv region. Probably some security guarantees provided the Ukes keep their end of the deal (note, I am not discussing who can trust whom, etc). This seems like the most reasonable offer from the Russian perspective, at least to me.
To be frank again, they will never, in my opinion, get a deal as good as that unless they literally defeat Russia, which I do not believe is going to happen. Especially considering the cost they paid to get where they (we) are today and the cost they will pay to get to some point in the future when some sort of ending to this will take place.

I do not think I am going to discuss this further because I already did to a great extent, touching on this subject on several occasions. Perhaps, if some new information comes to light; otherwise, I do not see a point.

Last thing on this part, the Ukrainian Pravda had pretty much copied most of the relevant parts of the WSJ article, which can be read here without dealing with the paywall:


Their concern #1 is to get more Patriots, Iris-T, shells, Himars and F16. Not to sit at a table. Because negotiating is pointless if you are not in a position to defend yourself from further attacks. Negotiations are useful only when the other feels that you could have some military advantage.
Here is a crazy thought: why is Ukraine in this position to begin with?

Another thought: Zelensky idiotically constrained himself by making negotiations with Putin legally impossible and providing way more than necessary “kool aid” to the masses, so it is very unlikely that there will be negotiations when the circumstances reasonably call for it (I think we are way behind that point already). I will continue this thought in another post.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
You believe they will eventually repel Russia.
No. I said that Ukraine is trying to either repel Russian troops or to limit their advance as far as possible instead of negotiating. They don't trust Russian's promises as long as Putin is at the power. They don't believe that Putin will respect any agreement.

Personally, I don't think anything can be solved just by signing off a paper telling that Russia can keep the Donbas and Crimea and Ukraine can join the EU if it doesn't join NATO and everything will be all right. It won't work.
Russia has been too far in their agression. The 2022 invasion is a proof by the facts that Russia wants a total control over Ukraine, not just the Donbas and Crimea.

It's not that they don't want to talk. It's just that it's not actual.

But they have indicated that they could negotiate with another head of state if Putin stepped down or was removed from office.

KipPotapych said:
Medvedev became a joker.
Feanor said:
I'm reasonably confident he's mocking Ukraine.
Comparing Medvediev and Danilov is a good point. LOL :) It's true that they hold the same language. Just that Danilov is not #2 in Ukraine. While Medvediev if former President of Russia and former prime minister.

What Putin himself tells about Ukraine is not very different. Thought he is much more vague.
IMO when one of these two speaks, it should be taken seriously. Especially since, what they did materially, and continue to do concretely is in line with these incendiary statements. When they drop ballistic missiles on Ukraine, it's not just their statements that are incendiary.
What they do in Ukraine is precisely what Medvediev said.

Danilov is just one among the dozen of chiefs, deputies and chairmen of the various defence, security, president councel and intel offices of Ukraine. It's not clear what his role is. And not clear what the roles of the other Ukrainian actors are and who is the most important there.

KipPotapych said:
the Ukrainian Pravda had pretty much copied most of the relevant parts of the WSJ article, which can be read here without dealing with the paywall:

WSJ analyses Putin's demands for peace from 2022: turn Ukraine into neutral state
Thanks for the links.
I'm very surprised that Russians proposed to allow Ukraine to join the EU.
First because the Maidan revolution started precisely because Yanukovitch rejected agreements with the EU. Perhaps Putin thinks that joining the EU doesn't involve agreements, I don't know...
Second, it doesn't make sens because being part of the EU implies that European countries will be more likely to help Ukraine militarily in case of agression, or to prevent an agression, even if they are not in NATO.
I think that Putin didn't understand the seriousness of this point :rolleyes: (if he was serious about anything at all).

Anyway, this draft was useless (that's why it was a draft) because it didn't mention the Donbas. How can you make a deal about the end of hostilities in the Donbas without mentioning the Donbas?

KipPotapych said:
Another thought: Zelensky idiotically constrained himself by making negotiations with Putin legally impossible
Yes and it's perfectly logical. It would put Ukraine at risk if someone had the illusion that they made a deal with him.
 
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seaspear

Well-Known Member

Fredled

Active Member
This article goes into the lives of civilians under Russian rule in conquered Ukraine lands ,certainly including many Ukrainians drafted forcefully for the meat grinders
Men in occupied territories are in no hurry to take their Russian passport because the next day they will be drafted and sent to the meat grinder. This is what an Ukrainian refugee from this region told me. When somebody tells you these things about his brother left behind, you feel more emotional than when reading it from an article. And you know it's not a fake.
 

KipPotapych

Active Member
Comparing Medvediev and Danilov is a good point. LOL :) It's true that they hold the same language. Just that Danilov is not #2 in Ukraine. While Medvediev if former President of Russia and former prime minister.[…]

Danilov is just one among the dozen of chiefs, deputies and chairmen of the various defence, security, president councel and intel offices of Ukraine. It's not clear what his role is. And not clear what the roles of the other Ukrainian actors are and who is the most important there.
Medvedev and Danilov perform the exact same role in their respective governments, literally:






^ an excerpt form the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Wikipedia page.

Thanks for the links.
I'm very surprised that Russians proposed to allow Ukraine to join the EU.
First because the Maidan revolution started precisely because Yanukovitch rejected agreements with the EU. Perhaps Putin thinks that joining the EU doesn't involve agreements, I don't know...
Second, it doesn't make sens because being part of the EU implies that European countries will be more likely to help Ukraine militarily in case of agression, or to prevent an agression, even if they are not in NATO.
I think that Putin didn't understand the seriousness of this point :rolleyes: (if he was serious about anything at all).
I find it weird when people suggest Putin’s lack of understanding of the subject matter that they themselves think they have a better understanding of. Don’t you find? I mean this is the man who ruled Russia (one of the major players on the world stage) for a very long time, dealt with dozens (likely hundreds) of word leaders and most serious issues, and signed likely thousands of international agreements and treaties of various degrees of importance we are talking about. No? Pretty sure his understanding of the topic is better than suggested.

We can also say that all these reports suggest they (Russia) have a genuine concern over NATO (and Americans in particular) in Ukraine. I mean it just screams at you when you read these articles. In this case, it even screamed at the authors and I quoted that specific part. We can also interpret the EU membership as a no further invasion on the horizon was in the plans (why would there be if the agreement that both sides were satisfied with was reached and everyone followed it?).

While the EU has their own defense pact (Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty), it clearly does not provide the same level of protection as does the NATO membership (see Sweden and Finland) and the prescribed in the draft status of neutrality probably plays into it as well. I do not have sufficient knowledge of the subject matter to comment on it further. What’s clear is that there is no direct involvement of the United States, which is what actually offers protection rather the NATO membership itself. On a related/unrelated note, this is a long but interesting read on the subject of neutrality and the Article 42.7:


Anyway, this draft was useless (that's why it was a draft) because it didn't mention the Donbas. How can you make a deal about the end of hostilities in the Donbas without mentioning the Donbas?
The article specifically states that that was the subject of discussion between the two presidents in the final face-to-face negotiations once the remaining issues were finalized. So I am not sure how you come to your conclusion.

I wonder how would Ukrainian population feel about that agreement if they actually knew the details that aren’t readily revealed. Note that they (and likely most of the western world, really) think what you wrote in your previous post about Russia’s position and intentions in the winter/spring of 2022.

Yes and it's perfectly logical. It would put Ukraine at risk if someone had the illusion that they made a deal with him.
There is no logic in it because he closed the only or main avenue of ending the war via negotiations. To think that the negotiations are possible because Putin would step down in order to accommodate the process, one in Zelensky’s position has to be completely oblivious. It is much more likely that he is the one who would have to step down or be taken down in order for the negotiations to take place, wouldn’t you agree? No reasonable politician would legally limit themselves in the available (and viable) options. It should be noted that we are talking about a country with completely obliterated ability to function as an independent state, fully relying on outside financial and military aid to exist, etc. If you think that was (perfectly) logical, we would definitely disagree here.

I will have to come back on the subject of illusion because that relates to the other subject that I have been meaning to discuss for a couple of weeks now but can never get to it.


On the separate note… There was an article in the New York Times today about the “partisan” invasion. It interviewed the leaders and their journalist(s) were actually present during the preparations for the attack. According to the article, the attacks “were intended to show resistance to Mr. Putin during an otherwise stage-managed election.” This indicates a lack of basic understanding of the Russian people, in my opinion, and is completely counterproductive. Especially when this “resistance” shells civilians in the process while making their “voices be heard”. The journalists also talked to Kapustin (the leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps, who they define as a neo-nazi, which he is) who said that they surprised the Russians and opened the pandora box, so now anything could happen. He also said that Ukraine does not send Ukrainian citizens on these raids across the border.

The goal was to actually break the first Russian line of defense, take over the trenches, and let the equipment move in with the purpose to occupy and hold the land within Russia. Not sure how they were planning to accomplish it.

Once the “partisans” were ready to proceed, the accompanying tanks and armoured vehicles were no where to be found. Apparently, they got lost on the way and couldn’t even provide coordinates of where they were. The group had to send someone to find them and they only arrived hours later in the morning (the raid was supposed to take place into the night). The commander asked whether it was stupidity or sabotage. The article ends with:

“It’s a war, nothing ever goes according to the plan,” one of the officers said.

Later, one tank broke down before reaching the border, and another was hit with a rocket-propelled grenade in the fighting.

The group returned to its base Thursday evening, without having broken through the border. Soldiers reached by phone said they would try again over the weekend.


 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
I'm reasonably confident he's mocking Ukraine. He's made a number of highly incendiary statements recently. He seems to be trying to ride the nationalist train as part of his own future political plans.
Medvedev is playing the "worse cop" in "bad cop/worse cop" routine (not sure if that translates well). Yet, he is an official in the Russian government with close links to Putin. While his stance is super maximalist, I wouldnt assume it isnt a desire.
 

Fredled

Active Member
@KipPotapych I didn't talk about EU defence treaties which are, at best, dormant. I was talking about the political will to defend Ukraine in case of invasion.

I don't know if Russian leaders are really afraid of the US, but the official version is that the US, with the use of NATO and its puppets regimes in Europe are trying to dismember Russia.
Now, do they believe, and does Putin personally believes his own propaganda, is a question I'v never been able to answer.

Anyway, you gave me an answer: Putin was ready to allow Ukraine into the EU because he didn't believe that the EU could play a defence role of its own and Ukraine would still be invadeable if he wished so.
Maybe he thought that the EU will crumble anyway and will be soon irrelevant. (It was at the time of Brexit.)

We can see from the facts that the EU members didn't wait for Ukraine to be in the EU for helping defend itself against a Russian invasion. That more than half of military aid comes from the European countries. So Putin's assumption (if that they were) were wrong.

KipPotapych said:
I find it weird when people suggest Putin’s lack of understanding of the subject matter that they themselves think they have a better understanding of. Don’t you find?
No. The facts show that he is completely nuts. Everything he does is a total disaster both for Ukraine and Russia. (Remember he poses himself as a liberator of the Russian territory that others call Ukraine).
Every speech or interview he makes are laden with ideological rhetoric, stereotypes of every kinds and plain false assertions.

Finally suffice to see his face to understand that he is inadequate (in the Russian sens of the term).

You said:
There is no logic in it because he closed the only or main avenue of ending the war via negotiations.
Why would Ukrainians want to negotiate their unconditional surrender while they still hold 80% of their country?
I would understand if the last place of resistance was an underground bunker in Kiev where the Zelensky's government is still hiding while the whole country is under Russian control and their bunker is encircled. Then, maybe the main avenue of ending the war via negotiations could be embraced. But it's not yet the case.

About the Freedom of Russia Legion, Russian Volunteer Corp and Siberian Battalion


Ukrinform said:
The Russian Volunteer Corps reported the capture of 25 Russian soldiers.
link
Russian volunteers from the Siberian Battalion said:
"Units of the Russian liberation forces, together with volunteers of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, entered the settlement of Gorkovsky in the Russian Federation and captured the building of the local administration
link
Gorkovsky is 200 meters from the Ukrainian border. While it's not deep inside Russia, Russians didn't expect an Ukrainian counter-offensive north of Sumy or Karkiv.

Funny to see Chechens in this group. They don;t fight for Putin anymore? Dissident group?

They seem to have crossed each other without notice:
Russian reconnaissance groups in the Sumy region.

KipPotapych said:
the attacks “were intended to show resistance to Mr. Putin during an otherwise stage-managed election.” .....]Especially when this “resistance” shells civilians in the process while making their “voices be heard”.
When have you seen that these groups have shelled civilians?
They don't even have an howitzer.
The only bombing of civilian related to the elections was a non lethal bomb dropped by a drone near a polling station before the opening.
Also counter productive because they scared away voters who would otherwise have voted against Putin.

And a molotov cocktail in St-Petersburg.

Ukraine interfering with elections in Russia: (Next)
Ukraine MoD admits hacking online voting system.

Long time no see. The come back of the year: Serhii Haidai

Olaf Szolz said never a single German soldier in Ukraine:
A former Bundeswehr soldier has died at the front in Ukraine.
What do they mean by former? I'm curious...

Shells from North Korea.
Budanov said:
Russia’s main military ally today is North Korea, which supplies them with huge amounts of weapons. This is critical for them as it would be very difficult for them to fight without those weapons. Critically difficult, I'd put it this way.

The circle of nations supporting Russia remains stable and does not change much. However, the assistance from Belarus or Iran is rather limited. The governments of these countries do support Russia but they “have not completely lost their minds
IMO Lukashenko was very smart in this game. While openly supporting the invasion every time he speaks, he has never committed a single of his soldier in this madness.

Budanov said:
Although Russia did recruit a few mercenaries and received some aviation spare parts from Cuba, this “isn’t significant”.
I thought NK was the bottom of the pack. I forgot about Cuba... LOL. Relying on Cuba for plane spare parts... Wow. :p
link

Dniepr
Russians attempt to launch assaults on left bank.
That's bad news for Ukraine if Russians are still able, and willing to return to the left bank.
 
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