The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Update.

Russian forces have pushed past Industrial Ave and taken the first treeline in the fields past it. Specifically they seem to have a foothold there which definitively blocks the road and suggests Ukraine is still on the defense despite the arrival of fresh reinforcements. At the same time Russian forces are pushing to close the pocket around the Zenit and Cheburashka strong points in south-western Avdeevka. As this happens we have reports of Ukrainian troops withdrawing from positions in the north-east and south of Avdeevka. The next several days are likely to be decisive.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

⚔️‍☠️ Армия России вгрызается в Авдеевку, продвигаясь вперёд и окружая базу ПВО ▪️Работающий на ВСУ ресурс DS публикует новую аналитику, сообщая, что российские войска «снова продвинулись на севере и юге города». ▪️«На юге их основная задача окружить Зенит (этот укрепрайон находится уже под...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 721: Situation on Avdivka front: - From the northern axis Russian Army took control over the forest belt between Avdivka Coke Plant and Water Treatment facilities. In addition, troops crossed Industrial Avenue and began advancing in the forest belt southwest of it...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Идут уличные бои: на штурм Авдеевки Россия отправила 50 000 бойцов, спецназ и опытных штурмовиков, — спикер группировки ВСУ "Таврия" ▪️ Дмитрий Лиховий в эфире заявил, что в Авдеевке уже несколько дней продолжаются уличные бои, и обстановка "диктует определенную смену тактики боевых...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Противник заявляет, что штурмовые группы ВС РФ продолжают акцентировано продвигаться к последним дорогам в Авдеевку перевалив через Индустриальный проспект и продвинувшись к посадкам в направлении Ласточкино. Дальнейшее продвижение ВС РФ на этот участке поставит ребром вопрос об Авдеевском...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Относительно угрозы окружения части сил противника на опорниках "Зенит" и "Чебурашка". 1. Пока еще физического окружения нет, некая горловина по-прежнему существует, хотя и простреливается. ВС РФ естественно стремятся закрыть ее. 2. Окружение и ликвидация сил противника в этом мини-мешке...

t.me

VK.com | VK

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vk.com

In Selidovo we have some footage emerging of a Russian strike against allegedly a local medical facility where wounded from the recent strike were gathered. If the information is true as it is presented, this constitutes an obvious and flagrant war crime. Note details on the incident remain scarce. Note this appears to be the second Russian strike against a Ukrainian medical facility being used to treat military personnel in a short time. Russia recently also struck a hospital in Kharkov. While in principle these strikes mirror similar previous strikes by Ukraine, this might be an alarming new pattern. Russia certainly has far more ability to strike hospitals then Ukraine.

Colonelcassad

Российские войска ночью поразили медучреждение в Селидово. Стоит отметить, что вчера днем кассетными боеприпасами был нанесен удар по скоплению украинских солдат как раз в н.п. Селидово и сообщалось об огромном количестве раненых. Высока вероятность того, что данное медучреждение было...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Последствия ночных прилетов в Селидово. Вид сверху.

t.me

Some footage of damage from one of the strikes against Selidovo.

Colonelcassad

О ночных прилетах в Селидово.

t.me

 

[seaspear]

Is there information on the accuracy of these air dropped bombs with extendable wings as to regards accuracy ?

 

[KipPotapych]

There was a very interesting paragraph on a article refuting some points from the Putin's interview by Tuck Carlson. Unfortunately, I couldn't find this article anymore. Maybe it has been deleted.

They said that in march 2022, Ukrainian delegations met Russian ones to negotiate some form of capitulation. (the article didn't say the word capitulation but that's how I understood it). Then, when the Russian retreated from the Kiev direction, and seemed to be stopped elsewhere, there were no question of capitulation anymore and the talks failed.

This was to refute the claim that Ukrainians cancelled the imminent signing of a peace agreement with Russia because Boris Johnson told them so. IMO, there were no peace agreement but they were ready to talk a way to save their a*rses. And the pledge by the West to considerably increase military support in the shortest terms, gave them one more reason no to.

I don't agree with your parallel with the trading world. Trader always have a choice to play the goofs or be careful. Ukrainians didn't have any choice and still don't.

Their only choices were either capitulation, and if they are lucky, be able to go on exile in a remote country (If Zelensky have some money left in Panama - LOL) or fight on.

They didn't choose to be invaded. They didn't choose to be bombed by thousands of missiles. They are forced to fight a total war. It's not doubling down on a bad bet. It's just that they don;t have any other option, short of leting Ukraine be annexed by Russia. If Ukraine or the West give up the fight, the Ukrainian state disapears, with the uncalculable consequences that will follow.

There are always choices. Even among the bad alternatives. In this case, once the choice had been made, and it’d been made based on wrong assumptions, there was and is only doubling down. I guess this would be returning back to who knows when, so I won’t go into what I already wrote previously, but consider the choices Ukraine had over the past several years. Then consider that what we are doing, or the stated goal of what we are doing, is making sure Ukraine has an upper hand and negotiates from the best possible position. First, in this particular case at least, this thinking is completely flawed because at any given moment you do not know if you are in the best position possible. Therefore, we can only look at what is reasonably sufficient rather than best. Here we have a lot of contradiction between us and Ukraine though. For one, we declared that this war will end at a negotiating table but we will provide all we can to Ukraine to gain an upper hand at that table; Ukraine, at the same time, sees returning to its internationally recognized borders as the only outcome to the war and, thus, eliminating any possible negotiations (which are also legally impossible because they outlawed negotiating with Putin and there is no one else they can negotiate with). The latter must be true because that outcome would only be possible in case of a total victory, whether literally forcing the Russians out of its territory or the Russians leaving on their own after suffering devastating losses or some other extraordinary event. I would propose that the Ukrainian position is simply unrealistic. Not only because I do not believe it is possible for Ukraine to achieve that outcome by force, but also because they 100% (not 99% or some other number, but literally 100%) depend on our aid in order to achieve it and we stated that the end will be at the negotiating table. However, Ukraine negotiating “with the upper hand”, of course, assumes that the Russians are ready to negotiate at that point as well and are likely beaten badly or otherwise unable to continue the campaign due to maybe political, economic, or other reasons. If that is true, there is no incentive for Ukraine to negotiate, other than us refusing to provide further sufficient aid for offensive operations, because it could continue the fight and achieve their stated goal of restoring their recognized international borders. However, that contradicts at least some of our stated goals of Ukrainian support. Note that I when I say Russia is ready to negotiate, I am talking about actual negotiations and not dictating the terms of the Ukrainian surrender, which I will mention below. This is not going to happen unless, like mentioned above, they are beaten or other “extraordinary” event takes place. In other words, we have a classic one side beats the other or neither side can make any meaningful gains in spite of the incurred losses. Only they can determine what is actually meaningful though. Rationality is not necessarily a factor here and more on that below.

Now consider the Russian position and their “offerings”. We don’t really know what was on the table in spring of 2022. We can guess and my guess would be as good as anyone else’s, but at the very least there would be forced federalization of Ukraine (more likely recognition of L/DNR independence), recognition of Crimea as Russian, neutral status of Ukraine, etc and the worst, all of the above, plus Zelensky’s resignation, territories held by Russia at that time recognized as Russian, etc. The latter clearly doesn’t seem very probable (not a couple of months into it anyway) and the real “deal” was likely somewhere in between. Perhaps, something like neutral status of Ukraine, recognition of L/DNR, the “landbridge”, while Russians would withdraw from Kiev (which they already did by the end of it) and I would guess the right bank of the river and Kharkiv region. Probably some security guarantees provided the Ukes keep their end of the deal (note, I am not discussing who can trust whom, etc). This seems like the most reasonable offer from the Russian perspective, at least to me. I would also think that this may be supported by the recent Reuters reports. They had one in December, I believe, as well, but there was another one yesterday:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putins-suggestion-ukraine-ceasefire-rejected-by-united-states-sources-say-2024-02-13/

The article basically says that, according to some RU sources, there were meetings of Putin’s and Biden’s “unofficial” advisors in Turkey late last year, as well as Putin sending signals to the US via the Arabs earlier, that Russia wouldn’t mind ceasefire and peace. However, according to the same sources, the frontline would make the new border (paraphrasing). US declined because “not without Ukraine” and here we are. So my guess here is, provided what was reported actually happened, the Russians already lost what they were going to give up anyway and thus the offer to end thing with what they wanted to begin with, though probably losing neutrality, as well as a good chunk of DNR that likely wasn’t on the table previously. Again, if what is reported did take place, this was a very reasonable step by the Russians because it came after it was obvious to everyone (except the Twitter folks) at that point that Ukraine failed miserably in their offensive, took significant losses, losing all potential for another offensives at least in the foreseeable future, and further aid provided by the US as the main sponsor might potentially be spent in better ways. I would also note that this suggests that Russia may actually believe that it is the USA that can either keep this war going or pull the plug at any time, which is pretty consistent with their prior actions and statements over the years (and they aren’t necessarily wrong). Either way, this is a very rational move on the part of Russia, regardless whether the previous sentence is true or not (they can’t go to the Ukrainian administration with any offers for obvious reasons). To note here as well, both Russians and Americans officially denied that these contacts and/or signals took place.

Second (as in second to the first in the first paragraph of this post), if you look at the past, post invasion (because pre doesn’t matter anymore), and consider what hasn’t been deemed as “best possible”, things get a little more murky. That is, the Ukrainians liberated about half of the territory (probably close enough if Crimea is not taken into account) with minimal losses, relatively speaking, and that was not considered to be the “best possible”. They (and we) doubled down based, yet again, on the bad assumptions, created unrealistic goals (see getting in one or two days to where they got in half a year), taking a significant amount of losses, etc.

Didn't fit into one post, so part one is over and part two is in the next post.

 

[KipPotapych]

Third, it is not only territory gains and losses that need to be kept in mind here when discussing “best possible”. For instance, back to the demographic situation and mobilization that was already discussed to a great extent, the economic reality, among many other factors and all of them combined, it is pretty clear there is no vision or strategy on how to win this war. If you take the combination of the factors into account, you quickly realize that the “best possible” getting further and further away and actually is not achievable. For example, if Russians take some land and Ukraine manages to prepare more troops and conducts another offensive and takes back what the Russians take now and a little more, they are not going to be in a better position than when they were in the fall of 2022. In fact, it may get to the point that even taking the entire territory back would not put them in a better position. This is because of the other factors at play. Furthermore, there is no definition of winning to begin with. Zelesnky’s delusion aside, we cannot clearly define what it is we are looking to achieve exactly. The statements that have been made in the past two years are all over the place: Russia must be defeated; this will end on the battlefield; this will end at the negotiating table; Russia has been defeated and Putin cannot win; we cannot let Russia and Putin win; etc. The saying goes a little common sense can go a long way. Well, here the sense seems to missing and common is not common at all. In other words, there is no rationality here.

In the meantime, consider what has taken place in the west and what is happening now. The delivery of weapons and intel by various western countries was done on the case by case individual basis. Some of these countries have direct participation in the war due to providing targets, correcting coordinates of the strikes, etc. All of that was discussed previously. While all done by the individual countries, obviously in collaboration, now the reports suggest that NATO as an alliance is going to come in and take over at least some of the functions. For example, NATO wants to coordinate weapons aid to Ukraine (in German, so maybe a German member (kato?) can add some clarity as I only read it via Google translate):

Handelsblatt

www.handelsblatt.com

NATO is planning to create a training centre(s) for the UA troops (in Spanish):

La OTAN creará un centro de entrenamiento para mejorar la preparación de las tropas de Ucrania

La Alianza Atlántica eleva con esta iniciativa su implicación en el apoyo a Kiev en la guerra que libra contra Rusia. Los aliados alcanzan niveles récord de gasto en defensa

elpais.com

And so on. So while the Alliance is taking on a bigger and, perhaps, direct role in the conflict, we have been hearing leaders, directors of intelligence, ministers of defense, etc, of various member countries talking about a direct conflict with Russia taking place in the next 3 to 8 years (their estimates vary). A couple of the most recent examples would be the Danish minister of defense and the Estonian intel:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/danish-defence-minister-warns-russia-could-attack-nato-3-5-years-media-2024-02-09/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-preparing-military-confrontation-with-west-says-estonia-2024-02-13/

These are just from the past few days and I am sure everyone here read many more others claiming the same thing recently, including the Germans, Polish, etc. What would be a reasonable take away for the Russians here? I am talking about their actual perspective that does not consider NATO to be a “purely defensive alliance” because that is completely irrelevant (if someone is thinking about writing just that as it had been many times over).

Another “in the meantime”, the reports from the Ukrainian troops are very bleak and suggest an urgent need not for the weapons alone, but personnel that appears to be extremely scarce.

Fate of Avdiivka uncertain as Ukrainian forces defending it struggle with fortifications, resources

Editor's note: The full names of the soldiers introduced in the story are not disclosed due to security concerns amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. DONETSK OBLAST – As artillery began pounding the cold-hardened ground ahead of them, two Ukrainian soldiers listened warily to shell impacts creep...

kyivindependent.com

Note that the article is from Kiev Independent, which is generally “upbeat” and doesn’t fluctuate much from the official Kiev. The article is free to read, so I am not going to write much. Basically it talks about the lack of troops, lack of defence lines beyond the first (that appears to have been broken or about to be) because everything beyond is still under construction.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/08/ukraine-soldiers-shortage-infantry-russia/

This one is behind a paywall, so I will put in a few quotes:

The Ukrainian military is facing a critical shortage of infantry, leading to exhaustion and diminished morale on the front line, military personnel in the field said this week — a perilous new dynamic for Kyiv nearly two years into the grinding, bloody war with Russia.

In interviews across the front line in recent days, nearly a dozen soldiers and commanders told The Washington Post that personnel deficits were their most critical problem now, as Russia has regained the offensive initiative on the battlefield and is stepping up its attacks.

One battalion commander in a mechanized brigade fighting in eastern Ukraine said that his unit currently has fewer than 40 infantry troops — the soldiers deployed in front-line trenches who hold off Russian assaults. A fully equipped battalion would have more than 200, the commander said.

Another commander in an infantry battalion of a different brigade said his unit is similarly depleted.[…]

The debate in Kyiv about mobilization — and to what degree the country should ramp it up — has angered soldiers on the front line.

Oleksandr, a battalion commander, said the companies in his unit on average are staffed at about 35 percent of what they should be. A second battalion commander from an assault brigade said that is typical for units that carry out combat tasks.[…]

Asked how many new soldiers he has received — not including those who have returned after injuries — Oleksandr said his battalion was sent five people over the past five months. He and other commanders said the new recruits tend to be poorly trained, creating a dilemma about whether to send someone immediately onto the battlefield because reinforcements are needed so badly, even though they are likely to get injured or killed because they lack the know-how.

“The basis of everything is the lack of people,” Oleksandr said. “Where are we going? I don’t know,” he added. “There’s no positive outlook. Absolutely none. It’s going to end in a lot of death, a global failure. And most likely, I think, the front will collapse somewhere like it did for the enemy in 2022, in the Kharkiv region.”[…]

And so on. Perhaps, the Russian recent advances that are quite significant in comparison to “the usual” are so for a reason.

It also appears, if the reports are true, the mobilization that is undeniably coming is a little too late? Who the hell knows, really (beginning with what’s true and what’s not).

 

[KipPotapych]

Is there information on the accuracy of these air dropped bombs with extendable wings as to regards accuracy ?

I read (think it was an ISW report) that they used to be 160ft accurate but increased to 16ft in the new mods. Looking at the various videos posted though, I would think 160ft is a safe bet. Pretty sure the report was citing some RU or UA bloggers as usual though, so nothing is certain.

Edit: here is a Business Insider article that talks about the same report I read a few months ago:

Russia likely using upgraded bombs that can smash underground bunkers

Russia's suite of FAB bombs — with sophisticated upgrades — appears to be causing heavy damage in Ukraine.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[seaspear]

This article from Forbes suggests some disagreement on accuracy but not destructive capability ,but for the Sukhois 34 as mentioned to launch these from 25 miles from target to avoid return fire? I would wonder on how they are aimed.

Russia’s Got A Giant New Glide-Bomb

The Russians’ new glide-bomb is big. Really big. And not for no reason: a bigger bomb doesn’t need to be so accurate.

www.forbes.com

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

Russia's area of control in Avdeevka is continuing to expand. Russian forces are pushing primarily from the northern side, expanding both northward towards the chemical plant, southward along Industrial Ave., and west-ward across the road into the trees. From the north Russian forces have raised a flag ~70ms from the city entrance sign that Zelenskiy took a photo with some time back. This indicates Russian forces are almost at the chemical plant. Reportedly Russian forces are also now creeping up on Lastochkino in the west, and if Lastochkino is merely contested, this would potentially shut down logistics into Avdeevka. Lastly we have repots coming in that the Zenit position, the old air defense base, has fallen. Consequently Ukrainian forces there have either surrendered/been destroyed, or managed to withdraw. There is no information on the fate of the north-eastward Cheburashka strong point and to me this suggests the latter outcome. Events are evolving fairly quickly. Rybar once again shows yesterday's info, taking the more cautious approach, and for obvious reasons. The question of Ukrainian counter-attacks remains relevant.

Первый российский флаг на западных окраинах Авдеевки

Военкор Поддубный опубликовал кадры с дрона с установкой первого российского флага на западных окраинах освобождаемой Авдеевки (к югу от коксохима). Судя по всему участок Индустриального проспекта. Противник на вечер разгоняет зраду о близящемся окружении Зенита и Чебурашки и…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Colonelcassad

Ой, что сталося? Видео с флагом РФ в 70 метрах от Авдеевской стелы публикует "Военная хроника".

t.me

Сливочный каприз

15,02,24 Авдеевка - АКХЗ Последствия боевых действий в Авдеевке. Военнослужащий ВС РФ фиксирует контроль укрепрайона "Бревно" демонстрацией флага Российской Федерации к югу от АКХЗ на западной окраине Авдеевки. 48.15881, 37.7098 Источник https://t.me/epoddubny/19074 Геопривязка 22,02,24...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Противник утверждает, что ситуация для ВСУ в районе Ласточкино и в районе "Зенита" продолжает ухудшаться. Информация об отступлении противника из Авдеевки не соответствует действительности, противник продолжает ожесточенное сопротивление, пытаясь удержать оставшиеся линии снабжения и ключевые...

t.me

Colonelcassad

t.me

Рыбарь

❗️ Битва за Авдеевку: взятие укрепрайона «Бревно» обстановка по состоянию на 18.00 15 февраля 2024 года Не успел выйти наш предыдущий срез с обстановкой в Авдеевке, как наконец-то появилось подтверждение продвижения российских войск к стеле, о котором до этого ходили лишь слухи. ▪️В сети...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/02/15/20240215181922-9a27d968.jpg

VK.com | VK

vk.com

ДГШ Карта СВО

Видео водружения флагов на базе ПВО в Авдеевке 1-й Славянской бригадой. Слава русскому оружию и русскому солдату! #с_поля_боя Диванный генштаб

t.me

Colonelcassad

Военкор Пегов сообщает с ссылкой на источники в 1-й Славянской бригаде, что наши войска взяли часть ПВО (укрепрайон "Зенит") к югу от Авдеевки. Ждем фото/видео подтверждения. Данный узел обороны противника удерживался и готовился к обороне 10 лет. PS. А все, уже подтвердили. "Зенит" пал.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Для истории. Флаги России и 1-й Славянской бригады на территории бывшей части ПВО. Плюс расширенное видео установки флага https://t.me/ankavolonter/3770 снятое с дрона бригады.

t.me

A rare Ukrainian Dana howitzer destroyed near Lastochkino, near Avdeevka.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Сгоревшая в районе Орловки (Авдеевское направление) чешская 155-мм колесная САУ "Дана". PS. По чехам еще была сегодня информация - чешские СМИ сообщили, что наши войска уничтожили в Авдеевке чешского наемника.

t.me

EDIT: A brief video of Russian infantry from the "Veterans" tactical team of the 60th MRBde inside Avdeevka. They were previously involved in the assault in the south-east of Avdeevka, breaking through the industrial zone and the Vinogradniki neighborhood there. It's likely the video is from that area.

Colonelcassad

Штурмовики "Ветеранов" продвигаются в Авдеевке по улице Чернышевского. Идут активные уличные бои в жилой застройке.

t.me

Amidst all of this Ukraine carried out another MLRS strike against Belgorod reportedly killing 9 civilians (other sources list 6 killed 17 wounded) including at least one small child. The munitions used were possibly Serbian or Czech (sources disagree). The civilian casulaties appear to have occured when the Ukrainian rockets struck a shopping center and a soccer field. Russian sources are claiming 15/19 rockets intercepted. Warning footage of corpses 2nd link.

Обстрел Белгорода. 15.02.2024

Противник обстрлял из РСЗО Белгород. Обстрел велся из северных районов Харьковской области. Использовались РСЗО Вампир (чешского производства) и предположительно РСЗО Ольха. Силы ПВО сбили 14 из 18 выпущенных ракет. В итоге одна из ракет попала в торговый центр, а другой…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

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vk.com

Colonelcassad

Восточная окраина н.п. Липцы 50.215896411 36.429858400 Удары по Белгороду с чешских РСЗО "Вампир" были оттуда. Сообщают, что террористы не успели покинуть позиционный район и попали под сильный обстрел. @ukrainian_guide Впрочем, пока нет верифицированных данных о поражении РСЗО и расчета...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Фрагменты ракет в Белгороде.

t.me

Рыбарь

Украинские формирования обстреляли из РСЗО Белгород: одна из ракет разорвалась на территории торгового центра. По предварительным данным, четыре человека погибли, еще семь ранены, однако число жертв в ближайшее время может увеличиться. Также сообщается об ударе беспилотника противника по...

t.me

Рыбарь

Жителей Белгорода убили сербскими ракетами? Всё так. Ракеты, которыми били по Белгороду, — действительно сербские. Бытует версия, что они были проданы в Канаду, но попали на т.н. Украину по непонятному маршруту. Сербская компания Krušik якобы продала их канадской компании Canadian JNJ Export...

t.me

ZERGULIO

[18+] Белгород. Удар укронацистов по футбольному полю. Женщины и дети. Нацистскую Украину надо выключить безо всяких оглядок на «западных партнеров», «демократическое мировое сообщество» и прочий триппер вроде "Минских соглашений".

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Last but not least, after the continuing losses of ships, Russia's commander of the Black Sea Fleet has been removed. Vice-Admiral Pinchuk will be replacing him It's unclear what if any practical measures can be taken to alter the situation.

Рыбарь

На Черноморском флоте изменения: по предварительной информации, командующего Соколова сняли, вместо него обязанности командующего Черноморским флотом исполняет начальник штаба ЧФ. Подробнее об обстоятельствах отставки рассказали в закрытом канале @rybar_plus_bot. #Крым #Россия #Украина @rybar...

t.me

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vk.com

 

[Vivendi]

Now consider the Russian position and their “offerings”. We don’t really know what was on the table in spring of 2022. We can guess and my guess would be as good as anyone else’s, but at the very least there would be forced federalization of Ukraine (more likely recognition of L/DNR independence), recognition of Crimea as Russian, neutral status of Ukraine, etc and the worst, all of the above, plus Zelensky’s resignation, territories held by Russia at that time recognized as Russian, etc. The latter clearly doesn’t seem very probable (not a couple of months into it anyway) and the real “deal” was likely somewhere in between. Perhaps, something like neutral status of Ukraine, recognition of L/DNR, the “landbridge”, while Russians would withdraw from Kiev (which they already did by the end of it) and I would guess the right bank of the river and Kharkiv region. Probably some security guarantees provided the Ukes keep their end of the deal (note, I am not discussing who can trust whom, etc). This seems like the most reasonable offer from the Russian perspective, at least to me.

I will not comment on everything in your two (long) posts I just want to highlight one important point: Russia has again, again, and again demonstrated that negotiating a "deal" with Russia is simply worthless -- unless the country that is entering into the "deal" with Russia can back it up with a substantial and deterrent force. Russia has a well-known tactic of asking for "cease fire", and/or "peace negotiations" when they believe it's to their advantage, only to then break the cease fire / peace agreement whenever it suits them. In other words, it's useless to try to "negotiate" with Russia unless either:

A. Ukraine has lost and must accept defeat
B. Russia finds itself in such a weak position vs. Ukraine + allies that Russia has to accept the terms of a peace agreement.

Ukrainians know the Russians better than most on this forum (me included) and I think they understand this better than most.

Ukraine also knows that it is fighting an existential threat. Russia intends to wipe Ukraine off the map, raping, torturing and/or murdering all who disagrees with becoming a part of the Russian empire. And, as you probably know, they even steal children. They are monsters and I hope Europe/US can offer sufficient long-term support to Ukraine to kick monsters out of Ukraine.

"Too many forget what Russian occupation means for the people living there. They are not just taking territory. They are cleansing Ukrainians citizens." Michael McFaul

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758159245965484424

 

[Feanor]

Update on Avdeevka.

Ukraine appears to be in the process of pulling out of Avdeevka. Ukrainian forces have reportedly withdrawn from the Donetsk Filtration Station in the south-east of Avdeevka and Russian social media sources are claiming the road from Lastochkino to Khimik is cut by Russia. Azov sources are claiming the situation is worse then Artemovsk/Bakhmut, which lines up with the smaller area, and the density of Russian air strikes. There are reports of Ukrainian wounded being abandoned and a Ukrainian source confirming some Ukrainian forces were trapped inside Russian encirclement at Zenit and associated positions. Their fate remains unclear. Russian artillery and bombs are pounding the remaining Ukrainian-held sectors of the town. The fight isn't over yet, but the fate of the town appear sealed. The last major Ukrainian stronghold is the Khimik neighborhood with the roads to it under fire. The rest of the town is a pile of small houses in various states of destruction.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 723: Situation on Avdivka front: - From the northern axis Russian Army continue advancing in the forest belt east of Lastochkyne and are now 1,3 Km from the village, 600 meters from the latest supply line and 3 Km from the Russian troops of the southern front. In...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Противник оставил Донецкую Филтровальную Станцию и отходит к городу. Начался коллапс обороны Авдеевки. Враг постепенно оставляет часть позиций и оттягивается к "Химику", пытаясь сузить фронт обороны и не допустить отрезания отдельных позиций.

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️ВСУ частично отступают в Авдеевке ▪️«В Авдеевке наши подразделения частично отходят на более выгодные позиции», - заявил спикер Сил обороны Таврического направления. ▪️На момент захода 3-й штурмовой в Авдеевку там не осталось ни одной целой подготовленной позиции. ▪️"Снабжение и эвакуация...

t.me

Рыбарь

❗️ Авдеевская ДФС тоже перешла под контроль российский войск, подразделения ВС РФ закрепляются на достигнутых рубежах. #Авдеевка #Донецк #Россия #Украина @rybar Поддержать нас

t.me

Рыбарь

❗️ Битва за Авдеевку: коллапс обороны ВСУ на юге и прорыв на востоке обстановка по состоянию на 21.00 15 февраля 2024 года За последние три часа обстановка под Авдеевкой изменилась. Помимо новостей о взятии части ПВО и укрепрайона «Зенит», хорошие вести пришли также и с восточного фланга...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/02/15/20240215211236-74764840.jpg

Портфель Генштаба

Авдеевка сегодня. Артиллерия и авиация в течение всего дня наносит удары по позициям ВСУ. @genshtab24

t.me

Condottiero

Авдеевка. Дорога на нп. Ласточкино всё. Мы в овраге. Идет бой.

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️В Авдеевке ад страшнее Бахмута! Русские прут огромными силами! К заходу 3-й штурмовой там не осталось ни одной целой подготовленной позиции, - боевики "Азова" ▪️Замкомандира 3-й ОШБр (бывший "Азов"): «Наша третья штурмовая выполняет боевые задания в условиях, которые даже нам было сложно...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️1-я Славянская бригада подняла флаг России над главной крепостью ВСУ на юге Авдеевки, взяв укрепрайон "Зенит"! ▪️На юге Авдеевки наши бойцы фланговыми манёврами завершили окружение и захват мощнейшего укрепрайона "Зенит"! ▪️Пал важнейший узел обороны - база ПВО на юго-западе у Авдеевки...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Брошенный в Авдеевке раненый ВСУшник по телефону сообщает родным, что побратимы бежали и бросили его и других раненых в Авдеевке. Уже очевидно, что сегодня-завтра противник бросит целый ряд позиций и картографам придется серьезно перекрашивать зоны контроля. За этим стоит тяжкий труд наших...

t.me

✙DeepState✙

Виродки з бригади "Капєйка" підняли російську ганчірку над Зенітом ⚔️ Кацапи останні дні активно лізли в даному районі, де наші бійці давали їм відсіч. Останні дні позиції там були в повному оточенні. Сьогодні основні сили відійшли з позицій, але вийти вдалося не всім, тож не все так радісно...

t.me

Z комитет + карта СВО

#Авдеевка На данный момент ВС РФ так же удалось захватить коттеджный поселок Виноградники и "Чебурашку". Карта Поддержать Почта "Z-комитет"

t.me

Война Глазами Журналиста

Вид на ночную Авдеевку, 15 февраля 2024 года. В районе Коксохима и прилегающим к нему лесополосам фиксируется несколько очагов возгорания, по району продолжает работать артиллерия.

t.me

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Is there information on the accuracy of these air dropped bombs with extendable wings as to regards accuracy ?

Here you go ,king:

The Truth About Russia’s Mysterious Winged Glide Bombs

Russia’s wing kits for ‘dumb’ bombs are makeshift devices with numerous shortcomings but they do feature satellite guidance.

www.twz.com

When they hit they get the job done but right now reliability is a big issue. Russia's refining that design though, and it can be said that overall Russia does manage to adapt and constantly improve its capabilities.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Third, it is not only territory gains and losses that need to be kept in mind here when discussing “best possible”. For instance, back to the demographic situation and mobilization that was already discussed to a great extent, the economic reality, among many other factors and all of them combined, it is pretty clear there is no vision or strategy on how to win this war. If you take the combination of the factors into account, you quickly realize that the “best possible” getting further and further away and actually is not achievable. For example, if Russians take some land and Ukraine manages to prepare more troops and conducts another offensive and takes back what the Russians take now and a little more, they are not going to be in a better position than when they were in the fall of 2022. In fact, it may get to the point that even taking the entire territory back would not put them in a better position. This is because of the other factors at play. Furthermore, there is no definition of winning to begin with. Zelesnky’s delusion aside, we cannot clearly define what it is we are looking to achieve exactly. The statements that have been made in the past two years are all over the place: Russia must be defeated; this will end on the battlefield; this will end at the negotiating table; Russia has been defeated and Putin cannot win; we cannot let Russia and Putin win; etc. The saying goes a little common sense can go a long way. Well, here the sense seems to missing and common is not common at all. In other words, there is no rationality here.

Are you willing to consider that both sides bet on strategies that are not necessarily going to secure a quick and easy victory?
As it stands, in my opinion - both sides seem to rely on attrition, and with compelling cases for both.
This is something I want to tie for a second to the "peace" aspect - i.e. negotiations of any sort.

Why is it so attractive to both side and what factors are driving that decision making? Let's start with Russia:
1. Weapons start coming in from Iran, North Korea, and parts are secured from China as well. It doesn't seem like the flow is going to slow down.
2. Weapons development cooperation with said nations is also already impactful with strategic weapons of the early days already entering service in refined variants.
3. Western aid to Ukraine is slowing down and may just completely halt in the near future.
4. Assaults are costly but ultimately successful in that they add territory.
5. Propaganda efforts are effective and pressure to halt Ukraine aid is mounting in the US, which might evolve to lower financial aid as well, thus limiting Ukraine's own defense industrial capacity.
6. Local industrial capacity is in a constant state of improvement and supply chains get increasingly streamlined.

Now let's do Ukraine:
1. Russia keeps dipping into ancient strategic stocks and doesn't produce nearly enough brand new equipment and ammo. It's just a matter of time until it devolves to mostly light infantry with very limited support.
2. Local industry improves and provides capabilities at a faster rate than Russia's MIC, and with modern solutions provided by the west.
3. Slowly but surely the west also shapes Ukraine's armed forces into a modern and more capable force that ever increases its technological edge vs Russia.
4. Western aid could significantly ramp up or slow down. It's too early to tell but Ukraine can afford to wait.

Essentially it boils down to both Russia and Ukraine betting on a war of attrition, and each one thinks it'll outpace the other until a breakthrough is possible. When will that be? According to one OSINTer I follow - maybe 2026, and I agree with that.
For Ukraine it may be more of a gamble than it is for Russia, but now is too soon to fold.

 

[d-ron84]

Not sure if anyone has seen this yet;

"A Russian amphibious ship, the Caesar Kunikov, has been sunk off the coast of Russian-occupied Crimea, according to Ukraine's armed forces."

This looks to be the third operational success of the Ukrainian Magura V5;

• November 2023 two landing craft docked at a Russian Navy base in Chornomorske, in western Crimea, were destroyed by V5s
• In early 2024 Kyrilo Budanov indicated several V5s were responsible for the sinking of the Russian missile corvette Ivanovets

Russian landing ship Caesar Kunikov sunk off Crimea, says Ukraine

The landing ship Caesar Kunikov is hit in the Black Sea, according to Ukraine's armed forces.

www.bbc.com

 

[Larry_L]

A western look at Russian arms production shows that they have outdone expectation, while raising wages and running arms factories 24 hours a day. This comes at a financial price, but can be sustained for some time. While some NATO countries still do not meet the goal of spending 2% of gdp on defense Russia is spending an estimated 7.5%. They have a huge advantage in artillery shells, although armored vehicles production falls short of their losses.

‘A lot higher than we expected’: Russian arms production worries Europe’s war planners

Moscow has massively ramped up its industry, giving it advantages in Ukraine and leading to a redistribution of wealth

www.theguardian.com

Izvestia reports on an investigation into a discrepancy in paperwork regarding over 50 aircraft suspected of being sent to other countries, with some ending up in "unfriendly" countries. Some of these may even be in Ukraine being used against the Russian military.

Russia investigates mysterious disappearance of dozens of planes from its fleet - Executive Digest

Russian authorities are investigating the disappearance of some planes and helicopters in the hands of Ukrainian forces fighting Moscow's invasion.

www.oe-mag.co.uk

FSB Investigates Illegal Sale of Aircraft to Ukraine and Other ‘Unfriendly States’

Russia targets employees of the Federal Air Transport Agency, who removed 59 aircraft from the state inventory and transferred them abroad, after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

www.kyivpost.com

Dozens of Russian aircraft have mysteriously disappeared

A number of the unaccounted-for aircraft were used by Ukraine in military operations against Russia, state-backed outlet Izvestia reported.

www.newsweek.com

Warning: footage of corpses. A Russian video of the battlefield NE of Avdivka. A walk through a forest destroyed by fighting with the ground torn up by trenches, bunkers, and explosions.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1757919262889685150

A weapons deal with Ecuador to provide Ukraine with Russian weapons leads Putin to cancel banana imports from that country. In return Ecuador gets American weapons. Probably a stopgap measure while funding is negotiated in the US House of Representatives.

Putin cancels banana imports after sending weapons to Ukraine

Kevin Sullivan, the US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs, said Ecuador was "considering" supplying the US with Russian weapons to

www.oe-mag.co.uk

Ukraine is using acoustic direction finding to locate Russian drones. An old idea, predating radar, upgraded with data processing will probably be integrated into the US military also. Data processing, and digital communication is becoming more important in modern war.

Ukraine Using Thousands Of Networked Microphones To Track Russian Drones

Ukraine is using acoustic sensors to detect and hunt down incoming threats, and now the U.S. military wants to test the system.

www.twz.com

 

[seaspear]

Could the use of networked microphone sensors be capable against very loud stealth aircraft as per the F-35?

 

[Larry_L]

Could the use of networked microphone sensors be capable against very loud stealth aircraft as per the F-35?

That is an interesting thought. Radio fingerprinting has been in use for at least 56 years in warfare. I can see where the acoustic signature of aircraft could identify the type of aircraft, and in the proper environment give direction, and a general idea of distance. With enough stations triangulation would be used to refine the data. I am not sure how long Ukraine has been working on this. This will be evolving for some time. I would not be surprised if Russia has started developing some capability in this area. This may actually degrade the advantage of most, if not all stealth aircraft.

 

[Vivendi]

Not sure if anyone has seen this yet;

"A Russian amphibious ship, the Caesar Kunikov, has been sunk off the coast of Russian-occupied Crimea, according to Ukraine's armed forces."

Yes this was reported on the previous page of this thread.

Before posting news like this I normally quickly search the last few pages to check if somebody posted already... pressing CTRL-F in my net browser I can search for eg., Kunikov, and then discover in seconds that I posted this news on the previous page and Feanor confirmed the news on the same page. There is also a search function in the forum.

 

[Feanor]

Update on Avdeevka.

Russian forces are expanding their area of control along Industrial Ave. northward and southward. Southward they're approaching the Khimik neighborhood, having taken the metalworks. The Russian flag was raised in the central park of Avdeevka, next to the hospital, and at the city entrance sign where Zelensky took photos some time back. Reports are coming in of horrendous casualties in the Ukrainian 110th Bde, whose 3rd company was allegedly completely destroyed, losing their company flag. In parts of the town Russian infantry is sweeping forward with almost no resistance as Ukrainian forces prepare to withdraw. Ukrainian forces appear to have completely pulled back from the eastern outskirts, including the Donetsk Filtration Station, the summer cottages in the east, and parts of the countryside. Cheburashka and Vinogradniki-2 appear to have fallen. Rybar once again has day-old info.

Note, despite the initial movement towards Lastochkino which seemed to indicate Russian intentions in that direction, there have been no new reported advances by Russia westward from Industrial Ave. It seems Russia intends to complicate evacuation operations for Ukraine by contesting the area around the Khimik neighborhood rather then by cutting the road out of town.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 723: Situation on Avdivka front: Russian Army continue advancing along the Industrial Avenue and the private sector and took control over parts of Avdiivka Plant of Metal Structures, the first parts of the Train Station, the Church of Saint Nicholas, the clinic and the...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️1 Славянская бригада в районе Авдеевки полностью уничтожила 3 роту 110 бригады ВСУ, захвачено знамя нацистов! ▪️Знамя подразделения было захвачено в бою Стрелковым батальоном 1 гвардейской Славянской бригады. ▪️Также подразделением Шторм 1-й Славянской захвачен следующий объект...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️«Чёрные барсы» освободили городской парк и поликлинику Авдеевки! Воины 55 бригады из Тувы водрузили флаги в том числе на памятнике «Братская могила» в городском парке Авдеевки. «Где поднят российский флаг, там он опускаться не должен. Цитируя слова Николая I мы чтим славные традиции наших...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Сибирские бойцы завершили зачистку частного сектора Авдеевки! ▪️Наши армейские подразделения зашли из частного сектора в городскую застройку и продвигаются с боями вперёд, зачищая город от нацистов. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Подтвержденное продвижение ВС РФ внутри Авдеевки после занятия городского парка и поликлиники. Карты https://t.me/z_arhiv/26052

t.me

Рыбарь

❗️ Битва за Авдеевку: зачистка «Чебурашки» и продвижение на севере обстановка по состоянию на 14.30 16 февраля 2024 года Украинские формирования продолжают поэтапный отход с невыгодных для обороны позиций на юге и северо-западе города. ▪️На данный момент подтверждаются сообщения о контроле ВС...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/02/16/20240216151318-a0a3cc05.jpg

Colonelcassad

Бойцы 114-й бригады ВС РФ повесили красный флаг с серпом и молотом на стеле на западном въезде в Авдеевку, где еще не так давно фоткался Зеленский. Видео https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/23014

t.me

Colonelcassad

"Чебурашка" наш!

t.me

Colonelcassad

Подтверждающие видео от 1-й Славянской бригады. Опорный пункт "Чебуршака" перешел под контроль российских войск.

t.me

WarGonzo

⚡️Авдеевская ДФС перешла под контроль российских войск⚡️ Бойцы интербригады «Пятнашка» установили флаги на Донецкой фильтровальной станции, откуда этой ночью был выбит противник. ДФС являлась одним из мощных укрепрайонов ВСУ на юго-востоке Авдеевки. @wargonzo *наш проект существует на...

t.me

Continued casualties are being reported by Azov.

Рагуль из овощей

Хваленая ТикТок бригада "Ософ" зашла в Авдеевку и снову "чорный день пидроздилу". Ну как так то? Малолетние нацисты отправлены на перевоспитание в подземный штрафбат. Возвращение не предусмотрено. Козак Богдан (2005 г.р.) из Львова; Назар Янкевич (2004 г.р.) с позывным "Ян" из Львовской...

t.me

Ukrainian tanks pulling out of Avdeevka, one is literally on fire.

Colonelcassad

Поврежденные украинские танки к западу от Авдеевки. По одному явно были прилеты FPV.

t.me

Allegedly a Ukrainian unit of female fighters is deploying to Avdeevka.

Colonelcassad

Поговорим о стандартной тактике украинских войск, когда мало-ценные подразделения оставляют прикрывать отход более боеспосбных. Теперь и в Авдеевке. Заслоны из теробороны закончились и теперь в этой роли женские отряды. Что, как-бы, логично. Запад же просил гендерные квоты и равенство. Значит...

t.me

A Ukrainian Bradley under UAV-directed Russian fires trying to get through to Tsarskaya Ohota and failing.

НгП раZVедка

Хроники тигров. Кадры уплотнения хохла на городских улицах к северу-западу от Царской Охоты. Можно также заметить как самоходный свинарник врага (Брэдли) пытался проскочить к району ЦО, но столкнулся с внезапным приступом благоразумия и развернулся. Это достаточно разумное решение, воевать с...

t.me

Azov appears to be set up partly inside the chemical plant. The facility has Russian forces on about ~60% of it's perimeter, but it's definitely not surrounded. It is getting bombed regularly and their service members are complaining that the situation is bad, comparing the situation to Azovstal' which in my opinion isn't particularly accurate.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

On the subject of Russian bombs, reportedly Ukrainian positions in and around Avdeevka got hit with 250 strikes in ~60 hours (2.5 days). That's a bombing rate of 100 bombs per day, significantly above recent Russian averages. I don't think it represents a production increase but rather an expenditure of some accumulated stocks to take Avdeevka. I believe Russian strike averages suppored

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[koxinga]

The inevitable withdrawal has started. It should have happened earlier IMO.

I understand the symbolic nature this looks, but Ukrainian resources are not infinite and being drawn into attritional conflict was what Russia wanted. Better to live and fight another day.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/16/europe/ukraine-withdraws-avdiivka-intl/index.html

 

[Ananda]

Avdiivka fall, increasingly become another PR battle by Russian channels toward Ukranian/Pro Ukrainian ones. Today I see this photo circulating in several Pro Russian accounts and channels. Shown Russian troops hoisting Red Banners on the poles in Avdiika, where before Zelensky doing selfies and vows to retain the city strongholds at all costs.

The war already become War of Attrition as soon as Russia pull out from possitions outside those four Oblasts, and concentrate their campaign in the four Oblasts fronts.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758516653548093951

However now even OSINT defender that ussualy accuse as overstated Russian losses, now basically saying the attrition so far can be covered by the Russian eventually. This will in the end raise questions how long West especially US going to keep pumping money and equipment to Ukranian. Especially with increasing opposition from Republicans and Right Wingers for Ukranian aids (which increasingly being portrait by them), as "Bidden's" investment projects.

The tragic end of Gonzalo Lira: A voice silenced in Ukraine

Gonzalo Lira, a Chilean-American war commentator known for his critical views on the Zelensky regime and Russia-Ukraine conflict, passed away on January 11, 2024, in a hospital in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Lira's death followed an eight-month imprisonment on charges of ”justifying Russia's military...

www.helsinkitimes.fi

Some in Mainstream media try to put down Gonzalo Lira deaths in Ukranian captivity as part of 'regretful' incidents. However not increasingly those on other sides of US political spectrums. This become part to stop US Aid to Ukranian.

After all Trump basically saying Euro to take much bigger portion on Aid to Ukraine and while US pulling out the financial flow. He seems either said to Ukraine stop the war, or call EU to finance it. Like it or not, it is increasingly sell in US ellection.

All this back to attrition war situation. Without US money, US aid, and US support, can Ukranian keep fighthing the attrition war ? Personally I have big doubt, as if US pull out, I have doubt on Euro 'political' commitment to keep pumping more aid to Zelensky, to cover US withdrawal. Off course it's all depends on Trump's win again. Still his momentum is continues gaining.

Add:
Osint X account shown video of Russian basically already taking over Central Avdiivka. Finding this outside ussual Pro Russian accounts, seems confirming Ukrainian dire situation on that city.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758557231698657429

 

[koxinga]

All this back to attrition war situation. Without US money, US aid, and US support, can Ukranian keep fighthing the attrition war ? Personally I have big doubt, as if US pull out, I have doubt on Euro 'political' commitment to keep pumping more aid to Zelensky, to cover US withdrawal. Off course it's all depends on Trump's win again. Still his momentum is continues gaining.

It is what I call a leaky bucket situation, a question of how fast and how much water to put in a leaky bucket to prevent it from running dry. Europe or US can give public commitment, but either volume or it takes longer to approve as we see in recent US actions.

The Russians have their own leaky bucket situation, so it is now a race.