The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
If I might suggest we put a pin in the discussion of who is or isn't lying with regards to news and casualties. We all assume casualties for both Russia and Ukraine are higher then their respective governments state however how much higher is entirely guess work by us with out facts (though some numbers have been gleened from the Russian side via funerals, death payouts etc). All we are doing is going around in circles debating the same points over and over, could almost be like a family dinner with my sister's but much calmer here . Any discussion should be based around fact, so far it is largely around personal opinion and going nowhere, people have their views, they won't change without new info, let's move on from this point for now
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
President Zelensky has stated that Ukraine has received the NASAMS air defense systems. The source is an interview so it maybe some time before he said the relevant part. You can just search the transcript for the words NASAMS though.

While US has said that they will send NASAMS, this confirms that they have been received.

I believe Ukraine will use the NASAMS to defend against missile strikes in the rear areas. Ukrainian forces are often able to down fixed wing aircrafts and helicopters with their existing armaments, but reports of strikes by long range missiles at the rear areas suggests a defense gap that should be filled.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Krivoy-Rog-Odessa.

76th VDV delivering strikes near Kherson. Exact location and context unclear.


Russian quadcopter strikes, Kherson.


A failed Ukrainian attack at Pravdino.


Reportedly the center of Kherson got hit, near the city administration.


Russian strikes, Krivoy Rog.


Russian strikes on Nikolaev.


Russian VDV firing at something, Kherson region. Note the soldier at the end is wearing a strange uniform and is firing a suppressed weapon.


From the recent footage of the crossing at Ingulets, we have a destroyed Ukrainian BMP-1 and Kipri MRAP.


Gunfire in the center of Kherson, presumably Ukrainian resistance.


Ukrainian M-109s near Nikolaev.


Ukrainian mock NASAMS, near Nikolaev.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian Kuban' Cossack irregulars delivering UAV-directed mortar strikes, Zaporozhye region.


Russian strikes near Sinel'kovo, Dnepropetrovsk region.


A deputy of the mayor of Berdyansk and his wife were killed.


An explosion took place in Melitopol'. Reportedly it was a controlled demolition.


The North.

Russian strikes on Chernigov area.


Ukrainian ASU-85 at a checkpoint in Poltava region. What the value of it is there is unclear.


Oskol front.

Ukrainian BMPs pulling back rapidly. One falls into a dug in fighting position.


Russian and LNR forces continue to hold Liman as of Sep 17th.


Ukrainian forces riding Bushmasters and T-80BVs. The paint color and how clear the tank looks makes me wonder if it's a captured Russian T-80BV.


Ukrainian forces captured an intact T-90M in the recent offensive.


Ukrainian forces in Belogorovka.


Ukrainian security forces detaining someone who apparently worked at a sports arena under Russian occupation.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
LDNR Front.

Apparently a failed Ukrainian attack at Spornoe.


Russian strikes, Spornoe.


Russian strikes near Slayvyansk.


Apparently the powerplant in Slavyansk was one of the targets.


Russian MLRS strikes near Seversk.


Kaskad btln quadcopter drops a munition on a Ukrainian outhouse.


Shelling of Donetsk continues.


Allegedly a Ukrainian assault team near Peski, taken out. Warning footage of corpses.


An explosion took place in Lugansk, near the prosecutor's office.


BTR-80 based command vehicle and Tigr armored car in Lugansk, covered in K-1 tiles.


LNR recon soldier with a LAW RPG.


Russia.

Allegedly Russian strikes on Ukrainian military vehicles near the border, Belgorod region.


Valuyki, Belgorod region, Russia, reportedly got hit pretty hard.


Russian air defenses firing over Belgorod.


Russian Border Guard in Crimea apparently downed a Ukrainian UAV.


Chinese Y-20 has shown up in Russia. It's unclear why, it could be delivering weapons.


Misc.

Russian strike on apparent Ukrainian position, somewhere in the south.


Russian strikes against apparently L118s? Somewhere in the south.


Russia Grad fires, location and context unclear.


Russian D-30 fires, location and context unclear.


Ukrainian T-64BV withdraws after Russian troops attempt to drop a grenade down the hatch.


Two T-64BVs, apparently Ukrainian. One destroyed, the other knocked out and captured. Location and context unclear allegedly 30th Bde.


Ukrainian 2S3 taken out by Iranian-supplied loitering munition. This might be Kharkov area. Note the Shahed-136/Geran'-2 doesn't have a camera, meaning it needs another unit to do the targeting.


Ukrainian M-113 and SUV taken out, location and context unclear.


Russian forces captured a YPR-765. This was reportedly a failed attack by Ukrainian forces.


Russian T-80BVM that apaprently survived an RPG or ATGM hit.


Russian Mi-8 ops, Ukraine.


Russian Su-25 carrying 240mm S-24 rockets.


A Ukrainian mini-UAV allegedly intercepted by Russian Border Guard, though the "how" is unclear.


Reportedly Russian prisoners who took military service in the war as a chance to get out. In the video they're encouraging other inmates to accept the offer.


Ukrainian forces have adapted Soviet PTABs for UAV use.


Zuzana-2 in Ukrainian hands, location and context unclear.


Ukrainian forces have converted a captured TOS-1 into an armored evacuator.


NATO/EU.

Lithuania has promised Ukraine M113s and M577s. They're also apparently doing repairs on Ukrainian PzH-2000.


Apparently the M113s have arrived already.


Ukrainian WIAs arriving in Germany.


40 Greek BMP-1s are going to Ukraine.


Ukraine will reportedly the launch customers for 18 RCH-155s. Of course Ukraine can't afford this, and if they had the cash, they would probably spend it differently. This is likely an attempt to test the weapon system in a high-intensity conflict.


Reportedly Spain delivered munitions to Ukraine.

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The Russians have lost a significant amount of modern (for them) material and they aren't able to replace it in both quantities and time required. Also their body armour was rubbish and in this Chris Cappy video on whether the new US Army XM-5 rifle (6.8mm x 51) would be of use to the Ukrainian infantry, there is video of Ukrainian soldiers testing its effectiveness. He has commentary from actual soldiers who have fought or are fighting the Russians in Ukraine so it gives an idea of some of the type of fighting that the average grunt is undertaking over there.

 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Don't know if it was posted here before. Ukraine requests Israeli intel on Iranian drones.
Israel sends delegations from its security establishment to international forums where they explain such things, so some of the intel already exists. What we don't know is how this might connect to the anti-drone systems Israel sent to Ukraine recently. Whether it's to do with how to operate them, or how to design similar systems for wider distribution.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
I've given you an example & asked you to consider it. You've not responded to that.
I think he is not answering to that point because a single example would not be relevant.

He is not keen on a position that one is more truthful than the other. In his view, they are all guilty of the same thing, regardless of the degree or the purpose, noble or otherwise.

To move forward, rather than engage in fruitless debate, look at the incidents/tactical picture on a case-by-case basis, when information is available. There are some situations where it is clearer from the Russian sources, and there are some situations were Western sources provide more verifiable content.

I avoid this polemics of truth and lies but focus on what is verifiable, which helps to negate (but not remove) bias.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Thanks @koxinga as you have point out my point. I don't have time before to answer.

I've given you an example & asked you to consider it. You've not responded to
Because your example is debatable, and we don't have anything in the ground that independently can verify at this point around. This's why I said both side are master liars, because whether it is through crude lies or more subtle lies, they manage to give enough miss direction on what's really happening in the ground.

Thus create different perspective on each targeted audiences.

In his view, they are all guilty of the same thing, regardless of the degree or the purpose, noble or otherwise.
Thank you to point out the point that I try to shown several times. Not all people agree on my point, but I also know enough people (especially outside collective west) share agreeable view with this.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 2 of 2: Some inchoate reflections

5. Ex Pitch Black 2022, RIMPAC 2022, Ex Kakadu 2022, and Ex Garuda Shield 2022 — are all not yet hostile to China or obviously directed at China. The fact that Japan is a factor with support from Germany/France in many of these exercises shows the degree of shift. What we are afraid of is not the PLA(N)’s most likely course of action (ECA A). Rather, it is the PLA(N)’s most dangerous course of action (ECA B), that keeps war planners up at night.

6. PLA(N) task groups led by Type 055 destroyers / cruisers are too powerful to be attacked conventionally by single fighters or multi-ASM attacks; instead it takes specialist SEAD & EW packages for a fighter strike group to penetrate air defences — as Ex Kakadu 2022 demonstrates. These sorts of complex coalition exercises presents for the PLA(N), in the South China Sea, ECA B.

Former Putin advisor Andrei Illarionov believes it was Xi who pushed Putin to rush the scam referendums, to rush mobilisation, and to escalate the nuclear threat now. He does not believe that the Ukranian counteroffensive by itself was triggering these three events so soon. Instead, he argues that Xi has ordered Putin to act now. Former adviser sees influence by Chinese President Xi Jinping in Putin's recent decisions | DW | 24.09.2022

If true, this will be remarkable for many reasons. First, it would mean that Putin is demonstrating weakness vs Xi at a level I did not expect so soon. Second, it raises a number of questions around why Xi is in such a hurry to escalate. I am not sure if it is related to the upcoming Chinese party congress in October, as Mr. Illarionov seems to believe. It will take more than a month for the mobilisation to have an effect on the war. One scary hypothesis could be that it's related to other plans of escalation that Xi has in mind for Taiwan in the near future... I hope I am wrong.
7. This is my last post on anything related to China in this thread on latest developments impacting the Russian-Ukrainian War of 2022. Let me digress a bit more from the main topic of the thread by sharing 2 final thoughts:

One, China does not have the degree of leverage on Putin that Andrei Illarionov assumes, yet.​
Two, it is nonsense on stilts with regard to any referendum— as it’s a CCP own goal for Taiwan (if DPP decide to conduct a referendum for independence, at some point).​
 
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koxinga

Well-Known Member
7. This is my last post on anything related to China in this thread on latest developments impacting the Russian-Ukrainian War of 2022. Let me digress a bit more from the main topic of the thread by sharing 2 final thoughts:

One, China does not have the degree of leverage on Putin that Andrei Illarionov assumes, yet.​
Two, it is nonsense on stilts with regard to any referendum— as it’s a CCP own goal for Taiwan (if DPP decide to conduct a referendum for independence, at some point).​
Well, it does demonstrate the West (both Russian and Western) has somewhat of a naive and simplistic view on the Russian-China dynamics and of authoritarian systems like China. China is a non-factor (at the battlefield level) in this war.

Even at geopolitical level, China offering words of support is the "best deal" for them because it costs relatively nothing from China's perspective but gains some measure of influence on Russia. I.e it is a mutually benefiting relationship with China benefiting more, just like every deal China signs.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Well, it does demonstrate the West (both Russian and Western) has somewhat of a naive and simplistic view on the Russian-China dynamics and of authoritarian systems like China. China is a non-factor (at the battlefield level) in this war.

Even at geopolitical level, China offering words of support is the "best deal" for them because it costs relatively nothing from China's perspective but gains some measure of influence on Russia. I.e it is a mutually benefiting relationship with China benefiting more, just like every deal China signs.
China may be a non-factor in the manner being discussed above, but just as we're all cheerfully writing off China, a Y-20 landed in Moscow. Russia turned to Iran for UAV supplies. Is there any reason to think Russia wouldn't purchase Chinese? Is there any reason to think China won't sell them? People are busy looking at the big picture and imagining fantastical scenarios of Russo-Chinese collusion but in this miss the very real ties between Russia and China in terms of resource sales and military-technical cooperation. This isn't to say we can confidently state it's happening. But I think cargoplane traffic from China to Russia should be watched and will give us indications of where this is going. The battlefield might be exactly where China will be a factor in the form of supplying systems that Russia is deficient in.
 

Ranger25

Active Member
Staff member
China may be a non-factor in the manner being discussed above, but just as we're all cheerfully writing off China, a Y-20 landed in Moscow. Russia turned to Iran for UAV supplies. Is there any reason to think Russia wouldn't purchase Chinese? Is there any reason to think China won't sell them? People are busy looking at the big picture and imagining fantastical scenarios of Russo-Chinese collusion but in this miss the very real ties between Russia and China in terms of resource sales and military-technical cooperation. This isn't to say we can confidently state it's happening. But I think cargoplane traffic from China to Russia should be watched and will give us indications of where this is going. The battlefield might be exactly where China will be a factor in the form of supplying systems that Russia is deficient in.

other than political blowback on the world stage, I see no reason why they wouldn’t. Cheap crude in exchange Big plus for the PLA is live, real world weapons testing which can be invaluable
 

SolarWind

Active Member
China may be a non-factor in the manner being discussed above, but just as we're all cheerfully writing off China, a Y-20 landed in Moscow. Russia turned to Iran for UAV supplies. Is there any reason to think Russia wouldn't purchase Chinese? Is there any reason to think China won't sell them? People are busy looking at the big picture and imagining fantastical scenarios of Russo-Chinese collusion but in this miss the very real ties between Russia and China in terms of resource sales and military-technical cooperation. This isn't to say we can confidently state it's happening. But I think cargoplane traffic from China to Russia should be watched and will give us indications of where this is going. The battlefield might be exactly where China will be a factor in the form of supplying systems that Russia is deficient in.
Russia might need emergency weapon supplies from somewhere, given their current situation. This is even nothing high-tech, neither electronics nor special materials unless you consider rust a special material.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russia might need emergency weapon supplies from somewhere, given their current situation. This is even nothing high-tech, neither electronics nor special materials unless you consider rust a special material.
Yeah, I'm once again ~1 week behind. The mobilization is going highly inconsistently. Some areas the recruits are well fed, well uniformed, and given new weapons. Some areas are lacking in all departments. Additionally it appears the Russian government failed to put in the proper process for medical reviews and the military commissariats, an ossified bureaucracy, are drafting whoever and however. In some cases people are getting draft notices at 1600 hours ordering them to report at 1700 hours the same day, making it impossible to figure out job situations, family situations, etc.

It's a clusterf*ck. We're also seeing BMP-2s, T-62Ms, and T-80BVs being pulled out of storage in additional quantities. It will be interesting to see if this involves additional defense industry orders, since Putin met with defense industry leadership very recently.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
I wonder how big a role corruption had to play in this. Will we see a wave of firings and tribunals of military commissariats officials?
“And because Putin has constructed a personalist dictatorship where everyone around him is dependent on him for their wealth, power and even freedom, he will never hear the truth about how corrupt his military is and how badly they are likely to perform as a result.”

Putin and his advisers seriously overestimated military capabilities and manpower as a result, Person adds, leading to “a strategically disastrous miscalculation to launch a war that they were not equipped to win.”
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Does anyone know if the Ukraine has other
T-72 variants apart from the AV/B1/B3/ AMT/AMY/UA1/M1and whether there are photos of all these variants in combat? Do the Ukrainians operate any other T-80 variant apart from the UD?

As far as I can tell the Russians have deployed the T-72B/BI/BA/B3/B4 and the
T-80 variants they have are the U/BV and BVM.

For the unaccustomed keeping track of all these variants [some with minor differences] can be somewhat confusing.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
China may be a non-factor in the manner being discussed above, but just as we're all cheerfully writing off China, a Y-20 landed in Moscow. Russia turned to Iran for UAV supplies. Is there any reason to think Russia wouldn't purchase Chinese? Is there any reason to think China won't sell them? People are busy looking at the big picture and imagining fantastical scenarios of Russo-Chinese collusion but in this miss the very real ties between Russia and China in terms of resource sales and military-technical cooperation. This isn't to say we can confidently state it's happening. But I think cargoplane traffic from China to Russia should be watched and will give us indications of where this is going. The battlefield might be exactly where China will be a factor in the form of supplying systems that Russia is deficient in.
I am sure additional arms via Chinese Y-20s is in the cards but like the West, China will likely be very selective in what they offer unless $hit happens in which case both sides will offer more exotic kit. The other big unknown is Putin’s future and for that matter Xi’s. At this point I think Xi’s future is looking better than Putin’s…just IMHO.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russia is pounding Odessa constantly with Shahed-136 strikes. It's unclear why, but they're hitting it over and over again. Targets seem to have to do with Ukraine's military presence there. But this is really unclear. Maybe the logistics and HQ for Ukraine's Kherson offensive are in Odessa rather then Nikolaev? Maybe Ukrainian forces there are significant worse concealed? Very unclear.
 
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