The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

STURM

Well-Known Member
Don't think that will happen. Putin appears to have Hitler's disease - thinking that he's a far better strategist than his Generals and General Staff.
Indeed. There were however certain times when he was right to overrule them.

A major problem is that they often weren't on the same page; a problem made worst with Gernany's dwindling resources. An example of this is Operation Spring Awakening. At a time when the Soviets were very close to Berlin the General Staff wanted Germany's last reserves to be used for the defence of Berlin. For them the war was lost and they wanted to keep the Soviets back as far as possible in the hope the Allies would reach Berlin first. Hitler on the other hand was convinced the war would drag and and sent 6th SS Panzer Army to Hungary to safeguard the oil fields.

Hitler did the same many times refusing requests to withdraw with the most famous being Stalingrad which cost him a Field Marshall and the 6th Army, some 600 thousand troops.
What's often overlooked is that if 6th Army was completely withdrawn it would have enabled the Soviets to redeploy their forces to other areas where the Germans were weak; this had the potential of collapsing Germany's front in the south. Hitler's major blunder was sending 6th Army to Stalingrad and another large force to simultaneously take the Caucasus.
 
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SolarWind

Active Member

Looks like Ukraine Armed Forces are fully exploiting the weaknesses of the Russian Air Force. Four Russian warplanes were reportedly brought down by short-range SAMs in one day. Per the article, Russian pilots are not trained to independently track down air defense systems. Russians seem to fly CAS at risk of Ukraine's air defense systems out of last-minute desperation.

The Russian air force was nowhere to be found in the first week of the counteroffensives. Ukrainian units had close air support. Russian units ... didn’t.

Analysts chalked up the Russian air force’s absence to the enduring strength of Ukrainian air-defenses, as well as to Russian air-warfare doctrine that assigns warplanes to bomb preplanned targets. The Russian air force doesn’t train its pilots to think and act independently—prerequisites for tracking down moving targets.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 2 of 2: Interesting threads & discussions on Ukraine

7. Clear evidence that Iran has helped Russia with the supply of drones. “Over past week, Shahed-136 delta-wing drones, repainted in Russian colors & rebranded as Geranium 2, started appearing over Ukrainian armor & artillery positions in…Kharkiv…said Col. Rodion Kulagin, commander of artillery of Ukraine’s 92nd Mech Brigade.”

8. Serhii Bratchuk, a spokesperson for the Odesa Oblast Military Administration, said early on 25 Sept 2022 that the administrative building in Odesa city center was hit 3 times. In response to Russia's attacks on Ukraine with Iranian kamikaze drones, Kyiv strips Iran's ambassador of his accreditation, limits number of Iranian diplomats in Ukraine.

9. Around 8 have been launched against the city this morning - most likely from Russian occupied Crimea.

10. In the Battle for Lyman, the notion of an Ukrainian push in northern Luhansk Oblast may also be worth considering. If they can extend control over the area east of the Oskil River, it might be better suited to address Russia's mobilisation. Unconfirmed reports are saying that Russian defences are collapsing north and west of Lyman, a key city in northern Donetsk, which is one of the gateways to the northern part of the Luhansk Oblast. Unconfirmed but Russian sources also report that some Russian forces are retreating from Lyman to avoid being surrounded.
 
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vonnoobie

Well-Known Member

Looks like Ukraine Armed Forces are fully exploiting the weaknesses of the Russian Air Force. Four Russian warplanes were reportedly brought down by short-range SAMs in one day. Per the article, Russian pilots are not trained to independently track down air defense systems. Russians seem to fly CAS at risk of Ukraine's air defense systems out of last-minute desperation.
Will have to dig up the tweet about it but apperantly one of the Su-30's shot down was at lowish level and by a stinger.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Looks like Ukraine Armed Forces are fully exploiting the weaknesses of the Russian Air Force
They have adopted the strategy of air denial in depth; this was based on the realisation that lack of resources prevented them from gaining air superiority.



Russians seem to fly CAS at risk of Ukraine's air defense systems out of last-minute desperation.
Same applies to the Ukrainians; at low level they are vulnerable to MANPADs but safe from other types of threats. For the Russians isn't out of "last-minute desperation" but out of sheer necessity; the need to avoid certain threats and to employ certain types of ordnance.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Russians aren't "master liars". They tell crude, easily disprovable lies. For example, their latest published figure is significantly less than the tally of individually verified deaths from funeral notices & the like, i.e. less than a number we know is both out of date & even if up to date would be incomplete.

The Ukrainians either keep quiet, or give numbers which might possibly be true. You can't point to Ukrainian numbers & confidently say "That's a lie!". You can dispute it, but you have to do so on the basis of probabilities, not proven facts. It's pretty much certain that it's closer to reality than the Russian numbers.

Treating these as equivalent is either a serious error (maybe due to not looking beyond the headline numbers), or possible evidence of (perhaps unconscious) bias.
I would submit that the sophistication and believability of the lie are independent variables for how far the lie is off from objective reality. In other words, being better liars doesn't make Ukraine more truthful. If anything is makes Ukraine more suspect since in those circumstances it becomes harder to identify the lies. Prime example, recent casualty figures put out by Shoygu are clearly wrong. But the DNR casualty figures are probably true (they show combined WIA+KIA numbers to be to the tune of 50% of DNR forces including those mobilized during this war). For Ukraine we have no way of saying.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
According to the internet the Dnepr typically freezes near Kherson between Jan and March. I hope the UKR can clean out the pocket before then, or it might not happen.
It might never freeze hard enough. It takes a good solid six inches of ice to support a 2 1/2 ton 6x6 truck. A typical winter in Ukraine is supposed to have temperatures hovering around the freeze mark or slightly below, as in the case of January.
" Mean winter (December to March) temperatures range from -4.8°С to 2°C. "

There are periods when artic air is pushed south and the temperature can drop -20 degrees C. This could allow some vehicles to cross if it is this cold for long enough. I know 3 feet or about 1 meter could support some armored vehicles, but I don't see that happening in that type of climate.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
With regards to recent prisoner swap there was some controversy in Russia of the release of the leaders of captured Azov brigade did Ukraine have any senior officers to swap to explain this going ahead
Apparently someone known as Putin"s Godfather, (Viktor Medvedchuk ) was exchanged.

 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Former Putin advisor Andrei Illarionov believes it was Xi who pushed Putin to rush the scam referendums, to rush mobilisation, and to escalate the nuclear threat now. He does not believe that the Ukranian counteroffensive by itself was triggering these three events so soon. Instead, he argues that Xi has ordered Putin to act now. Former adviser sees influence by Chinese President Xi Jinping in Putin's recent decisions | DW | 24.09.2022

If true, this will be remarkable for many reasons. First, it would mean that Putin is demonstrating weakness vs Xi at a level I did not expect so soon. Second, it raises a number of questions around why Xi is in such a hurry to escalate. I am not sure if it is related to the upcoming Chinese party congress in October, as Mr. Illarionov seems to believe. It will take more than a month for the mobilisation to have an effect on the war. One scary hypothesis could be that it's related to other plans of escalation that Xi has in mind for Taiwan in the near future... I hope I am wrong.

What do people think about the hypothesis about Xi from the former Putin advisor?
 

swerve

Super Moderator
"Pretty much certain their number is closer to realities then Russian", seems perhaps you do also have 'unconscious' bias. Considering how we debate long before on Zelensky coming from same cloth with Putin, seems we all have this perception of what you claim as unconsius bias.

You say Russian number are crude lies, well the Ukranian also come out and claim numbers that are 'crude' questionable. However if you base the 'truth' only to what Western sources also claim (which we see mostly tilted to what Ukraine numbers), then off course you came to that conclusions.

If you already think whatever the Russian and Pro Russian telegram is simple 'propaganda' lies, then fell free to come to conclusions Ukraine numbers are close to the truth. However looking to what Ukraine claim (especially when they are under pressure on June and July), it is similar exageration and evasion of truth with Russian done in last Ukraine counter offensive in Kharkiv-Izium.

For me, I look to both of them, I got impression it is similar level of lies. Thus has to be seen on how the results in the ground. As Russian evading their true losses after being wiped in Kharkiv-Izium fronts, same thing the Ukranian evading their losses when they are bogged down in Kherson fronts.
You're reacting emotionally rather than considering the evidence. Just think about this:

Lists of dead soldiers in this war have been compiled from funeral notices, death notices etc. in newspapers, websites of funeral directors etc. The chance of the public notices being fake is about zero. Not all families post such notices, the people searching for them almost certainly don't find all of them, & they're quite often delayed. They can therefore safely be taken as an absolute minimum number of deaths.

The lists of Russian dead compiled in this way have considerably more names than the official Russian number of Russian armed forces dead to date.

Think! And give a specific example of a Ukrainian lie which is as crude & obvious as that one, if you can.
 

Boatteacher

Active Member
I would not think that it is in Xi's interest to support a view that a referendum can change a state's Nationality. It would seem like a very bad precedent for him to support.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
I would submit that the sophistication and believability of the lie are independent variables for how far the lie is off from objective reality. In other words, being better liars doesn't make Ukraine more truthful. If anything is makes Ukraine more suspect since in those circumstances it becomes harder to identify the lies. Prime example, recent casualty figures put out by Shoygu are clearly wrong. But the DNR casualty figures are probably true (they show combined WIA+KIA numbers to be to the tune of 50% of DNR forces including those mobilized during this war). For Ukraine we have no way of saying.
Fair enough. But you must agree that the Russian authorities are certainly not master liars.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
I would not think that it is in Xi's intrest to support a view that a referendum can change a state's Nationality. It would seem like a very bad precedent for him to support.
But in this scenario, Xi is not supporting referendums publicly, only privately, that is without setting a state precedent. Can Xi coordinate with Putin without creating a precedent of China supporting such referendums?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Fair enough. But you must agree that the Russian authorities are certainly not master liars.
No. More like awful liars. In my book lies and propaganda are a bad thing. So someone who is better at them is inherently more suspect then someone who is worse. Not that being bad at it is more justifiable.

EDIT: It appears Ukraine's attempt to surround Liman from the north are stalled. Still no update on Drobyshevo or BARS-13, but a Ukrainian mobile armored group was repulsed.


Footage of destroyed vehicles near Liman, allegedly Ukrainian. We have a couple of BMPs, a couple trucks, and a couple of SUVs. Unclear if related to the above incident, though quite possible. There has been a lot of heavy fighting in the area but the incident listed above is the only one where Russian forces would be re-entering an area that Ukrainian forces had set up in.

 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
reacting emotionally rather than considering the evidence. Just think about this:
Why I'm reacting emotionally ? Do you have effidence that Ukraine numbers is more truthfull then Russian ? Perhaps you are not agreeable on my term calling both Russian and Ukranian are master liars.

Well if Russian are awfull liars cause their lies are cruders then Ukranian (which is better on orchestrating propaganda), then is this make Ukranian are more 'master' liars then Russian ?

For me term of master liars more on context of they are already so immerse on miss direction that all they are putting must treated in much 'grain of salt' as difficult to see which are truth and which are lies. On that context both Russian and Ukranian are 'master' liars as both full of miss direction. If one of them are better on miss direction, then they are better 'master' liars then the other one.

In the end it is not hide the fact both are full of missdirection and propaganda thus in short 'structually' liars. Which in the end making all their media information (officially and unoffcially) can not be taken directly as truth. This make people need to be looking other effidences from development in ground, and continuesly questions what are real situations. On that, those are in my book shown both of them are 'master' liars, as making people continues guessing what's real situation.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
In reference to Russian partial mobilisation Zelensky has called on Russian troops to desert. Something which just occurred to me is why aren't the Ukrainians conduction a sustained psychological/propaganda campaign to get Russian soldiers to desert? It could be done easily via social media and via broadcasts on the battlefield.

German propaganda in WW2 was quite effective against the Soviets. We know of the thousands of Ukrainians, Uzbeks, Georgians, Tartars, Kazakhs and other non Russian groups which crossed over but it's often not realised that up until the last months of the war Soviet soldiers were still.crossing over; albeit in small numbers.

Something to consider perhaps is that just because a Russian is not supportive of the war doesn't mean he's going to desert. Many are probably staying out out of loyalty to their fellow soldiers or have adopted the right or wrong it's still my country altitude.
Ethnically the Russians and Ukrainians are very close. I think as a result there are going to be a large number of conflicted soldiers on both sides.

The average Russian is likely to be more conflicted given that they are the ones currently occupying Ukrainian territory. They would be aware that Putin’s claims of Nazification of the Ukraine and a local population that welcomed the Russian invasion are greatly exaggerated.

My theory is that what we are seeing at the moment isn’t so much a devastating counter offensive by the Ukrainians or a tactical withdrawal by the Russians.

I think what we are seeing is a widespread refusal by Russian forces to fight. Certainly reports I have read talk of Russians just straight up abandoning equipment and running like rats rather than engaging in combat.

That Putin felt it necessary to threaten his own soldiers with prison if they deserted or surrendered is a pretty strong indication that a big percentage of his army is not willing to fight.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Ms. Matilda Bogner | CivilMPlus
Report on the Human Rights situation in Ukraine | United Nations in Ukraine New report by UN Human Rights shows the shocking toll of the war in New report by UN Human Rights shows the shocking toll of the war in Ukraine | United Nations in Ukraine
Ukraine | United Nations in Ukraine
I have included these reports by Matilda Bogner the head of the United Nations Human rights monitoring commission I believe her reports by a neutral body shows some accuracy as to what is happening in the Ukraine war and the conduct shown towards civilians this is not fake news
 

SolarWind

Active Member
The discussion on lying here is not differentiating the intentional deception of the enemy from lying to your own citizens. The difference between Ukraine and Russia is that while deception of the enemy is a part of the art of war, lying to your citizens in an obvious and crude way is not and is considered bad statecraft.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
The difference between Ukraine and Russia is that while deception of the enemy is a part of the art of war, lying to your citizens in an obvious and crude way is not and is considered bad statecraft.
Is lying to your own citizens only done by Russian ? The West (mostly based on Ukranian report) call enermous numbers of Russian death being concealed from their families. While Pro Russian telegrams talk on Ukranian soldiers bodies left in the ground with their dog tag intacts, talk on Ukranian families (based on their links) claiming of no information of their sons or fathers in the services. Some of them (Russian telegrams) even claim to be asked by Ukranian families to check Russian military sources on unclaim Ukranian bodies.

So whose going to be believe ? Looking on Pro Russian telegrams they do tell the truth (outside propaganda contexts) from time to time, even (some of them) can becriticals to Russian defense establishment from time to time. Still will those in West (for example) can trust Pro Russian channels?

This is why I call both sides already masters of lying. Creating miss direction and continues guessing on real pictures need structural support systems. Even those which can be consider 'crude' lies if place or mix with bit of truths can still create enough miss directions.

Thus if the results creating heavy fog of war from both sides, this in my book shown 'institutional' lies fully establish on both sides. Make them both 'masteries' of lying.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 1 of 2: Some inchoate reflections

What do people think about the hypothesis about Xi from the former Putin advisor?
1. Throwing every Russian able-bodied male in uniform and shipping them out can get Putin more BTGs, but this does not get give the Russian Army capable BTGs to fight and win in the decisive terrain in Eastern Ukraine. Especially in modern warfare, where physically-massing ground forces isn't a strength but a liability. The PLA knows this, which is why China reduced troop count by 300,000 to have money reallocated to buy advanced gear.
(a) The hastily trained Russian replacements are headed for a tragic future in a meatgrinder of a war for both sides. The Russians have always deserved better leaders than they have had, whether tsars, or presidents — the issue is not the time lag for the mobilisation to produce trained troops — the issue is that mobilisation at best can result in a stalemate in Northeast Ukraine (where the Ukrainian Army has won back Kharkiv) or even cause Russia to be defeated, eventually.​
(b) The decisive terrain in east Ukraine is the convex line running from Izyum through Siverskyi Donets to the Severondontsk Salient; and this portion of the Donbas front is the key to victory or defeat in Ukraine’s Eastern offensive.​
(c) Putin’s mobilisation in part is to avoid immediate defeat in the line of contact in Eastern Ukraine — the Russians have decided to defend Lyman and there is a risk of encirclement of Russian troops in Lyman — will need to see how this part of the Ukrainian Army offensive works out. Meanwhile, we need to keep in mind that Ukraine has secured bridgeheads on the east bank of the Oskil River, which Russian troops tried to integrate into "a consolidated defensive line.​
2. Sensing the risk to a possible Russian defeat, Xi probably told Putin that Chinese support the Russian invasion of Ukraine is not as unconditional as presented to the West; and that he needs to mobilise and ‘end’ this war on Russian terms before Europe gets more serious about decoupling the Russian economy with Europe’s (and due China’s stance on future Taiwanese reunification by coercion, there is a risk that Europe may decouple their future from China). Right now, China needs to manage its differences with the US and Japan. The last thing China needs is a united Europe backing the US and Japan over their geopolitical concerns with China.
(a) IMO, China’s prior use of coercive tools against Australia, the Philippines and Korea have shifted the geopolitical landscape. Xi’s miscalculation has helped:​
(i) provide the justification for AUKUS — a trilateral security pact between Australia, the UK, and the US; and​
(ii) increase hedging behaviour from a wide range of actors beyond the Quad. Korea, Indonesia and Singapore are increasing their engagement to position themselves in an increasingly multilateral world order.​
(b) Chinese scholar Zhou Bo said that the US should do what China wants (i.e. force Taiwan to recognize 1992 Consensus and stop visits to Taiwan). He thinks this will avoid the next Taiwan Crisis but the boat has sailed, with the US Congress threatening to up-end Biden’s desire to keep the status quo. Both the US and China miscalculated over the stupid Pelosi visit.​

I would not think that it is in Xi's interest to support a view that a referendum can change a state's Nationality. It would seem like a very bad precedent for him to support.
3. This is the most sensible take on Xi & the CCP to refute the senseless and illogical speculation by Andrei Illarionov.

4. People who believe this nonsense by Andrei Illarionov can’t understand China (and not just don’t understand). The war in Ukraine has not only created a set of precedents that is not in China’s interests, it is creating the conditions and accelerating US plans (at DIME levels) for the 5th Taiwan Straits Crisis.
 
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