NZDF General discussion thread

[Depot Dog]

Australia/NZ defence treaty. What is Australia's obigation to NZ? Our defence force is modest in size. In grey conflict or small skermish like RAMSI, I couldn't see any problems. If the threat increased, there will be point where Australia would have to defend its own interests over NZ. What would NZ do in that circumstance?

The second thing is I hope NZ is never governed by Australia. I visit NZ for business atleast 2 times a year. The culture is unique and wonderful. The unique like the tooting tunnel in Wellington. To the wonder of the South Island. To be influenced by Australia would be bad. Better we stay friends and good neighbours.

Regards
DD

 

[ngatimozart]

From memory the treaty was based on the 1944 Canberra Pact, which by the way annoyed the hell out of the Americans because it rained on their parade. I would have to look into it more because its been decades since I have learnt about it.

 

[ngatimozart]

Part 2 of 2: Can the NZDF be given more resources?

4. Given a choice, I would prefer that NZDF acquire a 5th P-8A (beyond the current 4) to increase the ISR capability of your navy or a 6th C-130J (beyond the current 5), to support army taskings. If NZ deploy 2 x C-130s for 2 months, your army and airforce can’t make do with only 3 C-130s at home.

Ideally another 3 C-130J-30 and 2 P-8A should be acquired. That would cover your concerns there.

5. In a Solomon Islands crisis scenario (3,956.73 km away from Christchurch), imagine what 2 A300MRTT and 6 C-130Js can do to fly in troops and equipment. During the Feb 2011 Christchurch earthquake, the RSAF used 2 C-130Hs and 1 KC-135R to bring in our Command element of HQ7SIB and our civil defence DART team’s equipment. And because the RSAF operates 10 C-130Hs, we could afford to station 2 C-130Hs to support the NZ Government, for a few weeks without disrupting our normal training needs. Even for flying oxygen cylinders to India or Indonesia, our C-130Hs are heavily tasked.

6. In the near future, in a Solomon Islands crisis scenario:

​

(a) China could effortlessly use 12 to 20 Xi'an Y-20 to move their rapid deployment troops in support of their operations and keep 4 to 8 to support local operations for months on end. That’s even before we consider the PLA(N)’s capability to move armoured and artillery forces to a nearby port to unload — 10+ PLA brigades have conducted maritime transport/amphib training activities since June 2021. They are prepared to deploy, having trained for it. When that happens, the combined effort of all FPDA members to influence outcomes would just be over looked. NZ’s ability to help your allies, by deploying 2 to 4 C-130Js will become more important.​

(b) China plays rough in the game of international diplomacy. A trip by the US VP can be delayed by reports of a Havana Syndrome case — they can do more harm than joe public in NZ think, even if they don’t shoot at NZ troops. The PLA may not be in direct conflict with your troops, but NZ may still face the need to evacuate people who feel ill from ‘XYZ’ weapons that leave no trace.​

7. IMHO, NZDF has less than the minimum aircraft required and are forced to make do. The issue is having the right mix. Please feel free to correct me, if I have missed something.

The problem that NZDF has is the continual under resourcing over the last 30 years. For the period 2008 - 2020 the defence %GDP varied between 1.15% and 1.5% with the 1.5% (2020) being an anomaly.


Source: TRADING ECONOMICS | 300.00 INDICATORS | 196 COUNTRIES

The political elite do not regard defence as worthwhile enough to fund, preferring to talk the talk but failing to walk the walk. That's the problem and Treasury doesn't help either being anti defence since WW2.

 

[John Fedup]

Why would the political elite care about defence? Pollies prime directive is re-election. Only the electorate can change this and like Canada, defence is seen by the electorate as a financial drain on social benefits. If NZ can change this, please forward instructions to Canada.

 

[Rob c]

Ideally another 3 C-130J-30 and 2 P-8A should be acquired. That would cover your concerns there.


The problem that NZDF has is the continual under resourcing over the last 30 years. For the period 2008 - 2020 the defence %GDP varied between 1.15% and 1.5% with the 1.5% (2020) being an anomaly.

View attachment 48448
Source: TRADiING ECONOMICS | 300.00 INDICATORS | 196 COUNTRIES

The political elite do not regard defence as worthwhile enough to fund, preferring to talk the talk but failing to walk the walk. That's the problem and Treasury doesn't help either being anti defence since WW2.

`The recent increase is due to capital payments as this depicts both operational and capital as it is derived from the NATO definition and would include the current ongoing payments for the frigate up grade, trucks, P8 etc. The 50 year display from the same source is even more enlightening.

 

[KiwiRob]

It was something I read years ago at uni so don't have the reference off hand.

My point is that you are grasping at straws, don't live in NZ, don't really have a clue about how the people here currently feel about things and don't grasp that the country has really changed since you have left it. You may have whanau back here, but you still don't feel the vibe of living here. You have the same problem as every other expat who hasn't been back here for long spells. And the country has changed in the last 18 months. Some of for good, and some of it isn't so good.

it doesn’t matter that I don’t live in NZ, I still have friends and family in NZ, I can still read the papers you're ignoring the fact that NZ has made a turn to the red green side of the political spectrum, a side of the spectrum which is not interested in defence. As you said the country has changed we’ve shifted more left than right. Right is boomers, left/green is younger people, the future of NZ’s not you and people your age. I would take your POV with a grain of salt, as former military you are biased.

if you think NZ has changed to a pro defence stance I’d like to see you trying to prove it.

@KiwiRob

You are entitled to your view but suggest you respect others view as well. This accusation:

I would take your POV with a grain of salt, as former military you are biased.

Was unnecessary and simply inflames the debate. Lets all play nice please.

Alexsa

 

[MrConservative]

you're ignoring the fact that NZ has made a turn to the red green side of the political spectrum, a side of the spectrum which is not interested in defence. As you said the country has changed we’ve shifted more left than right. Right is boomers, left/green is younger people, the future of NZ’s not you and people your age. I would take your POV with a grain of salt, as former military you are biased.

The last election was more to do with gender than with age. Jacinda being more popular with woman than Judith on a 1:4 basis during a solely media event based "presidential style" campaign (due to Covid) and been seen to do a good job on the immediate Covid response, which was the defining preoccupation of the electorate.

if you think NZ has changed to a pro defence stance I’d like to see you trying to prove it.

What has happened in public perception surveys that the major political parties conduct and with focus groups is not a strong move to a pro-defence stance with the general public but a gradual shift over the last 25 years and in particular over the last ten from being supportive of spending cuts, to being generally neutral, to being unconcerned about increases in defence spending. However in that mix there are some groups - the sizeable outliers, that have moved to being supportive of increases (males over 45 both urban and rural) and not supportive (urban females under 30) the rest generally - neutral. Public perception surveys conducted by the NZDF and VA via polling companies like Curia show that the NZDF has a higher trust level and positive perception than the other uniformed services and is in the top handful of government departments. I have spoken with a former defence minister from a few years ago who said that they were slightly surprised that when they announced a $20 billion defence spend package including the announcement of the P-8A's that there was nothing like the push back they expected.

 

[KiwiRob]

The last election was more to do with gender than with age. Jacinda being more popular with woman than Judith on a 1:4 basis during a solely media event based "presidential style" campaign (due to Covid) and been seen to do a good job on the immediate Covid response, which was the defining preoccupation of the electorate.

What has happened in public perception surveys that the major political parties conduct and with focus groups is not a strong move to a pro-defence stance with the general public but a gradual shift over the last 25 years and in particular over the last ten from being supportive of spending cuts, to being generally neutral, to being unconcerned about increases in defence spending. However in that mix there are some groups - the sizeable outliers, that have moved to being supportive of increases (males over 45 both urban and rural) and not supportive (urban females under 30) the rest generally - neutral. Public perception surveys conducted by the NZDF and VA via polling companies like Curia show that the NZDF has a higher trust level and positive perception than the other uniformed services and is in the top handful of government departments. I have spoken with a former defence minister from a few years ago who said that they were slightly surprised that when they announced a $20 billion defence spend package including the announcement of the P-8A's that there was nothing like the push back they expected.

Your first comment backed up my statement, women are less interested in defence, women play a much greater role in NZ today than they ever have, this role is growing. The top political and judicial roles in NZ are all held by women.

Please post some links to the polling and the results.

 

[MrConservative]

Your first comment backed up my statement, women are less interested in defence, women play a much greater role in NZ today than they ever have, this role is growing. The top political and judicial roles in NZ are all held by women.

Just providing further context. And there are now currently three 1 stars in the NZDF who are woman too.

Please post some links to the polling and the results.

That kind of commissioned data is not online Rob. But the results are not unexpected, even predictable.

 

[ngatimozart]

Your first comment backed up my statement, women are less interested in defence, women play a much greater role in NZ today than they ever have, this role is growing. The top political and judicial roles in NZ are all held by women.

I believe that many of my female veteran sisters and the women currently serving in NZDF would find your remark condescending and offensive. In fact I have some left wing women friends who definitely would find that remark of yours sexist, condescending and offensive, and that's just the start. FYI those left wing women never served in any military. They are feminists to boot.

You accuse me of having a military bias, however unlike you I have served so that gives me background, experience, some expertise and understanding. I also have a tertiary education outside of the military which gives me other skills. However because I am military doesn't make me a war maker or one who is a neocon. I am far from it, but I do have an understanding of the risks and dangers that NZ faces. I also know the costs suffering and damages that war brings and inflicts upon people. My own family have experienced it.

FYI, speaking for myself I have mokopuna - grandchildren for whom I want a safe and secure world where they have all the freedoms that I had and have. If that means that I push for a capable and resilient NZDF then I am proud to do that because it will help keep my mokopuna safe. At the same time I am also advocating for my brothers and sisters in uniform who are unable to advocate for themselves because they are not allowed to by law. They are the ones who are put into danger and possibly lose their lives. They are, and always have been my main consideration when I am advocating for NZDF.

Now as someone who has never served in the military, I understand that you are like just about any other civilian and don't understand the service culture and the bond that exists between service personnel and veterans. It's different and it's special. Family is a term that's often used and that is exactly what it is. That's why we call each other brothers and sisters. That’s why we look out for each other.

You also have the arrogance to presume that because I am of the boomer generation that our generation no longer has anything to contribute. You are very much mistaken because everyone, no matter their age, always has something to contribute to society and to the world. You should remember that because one day if you have the good fortune of good health, you will be in your dotage and with luck have mokopuna of your own. I hope that the generations that come after you aren't as judgemental of their preceding generations as you are.

Po marie.

 

[ADMk2]

Who said we would want you anyway

Here, here! We’ll take their rugby team and Queenstown, but the rest?

Serious question though, there was a suggestion for a “Pacific Islands Regiment” operating under the auspices of the ADF, in some manner analogous to the Gurkhas in the British Army. Some PC issues aside, I don’t mind the idea.

However would such an arrangement be more appropriate for the NZDF, given their closer historical links to Pacific Island nations?

 

[Jellybeen]

I believe that many of my female veteran sisters and the women currently serving in NZDF would find your remark condescending and offensive. In fact I have some left wing women friends who definitely would find that remark of yours sexist, condescending and offensive, and that's just the start. FYI those left wing women never served in any military. They are feminists to boot.

You accuse me of having a military bias, however unlike you I have served so that gives me background, experience, some expertise and understanding. I also have a tertiary education outside of the military which gives me other skills. However because I am military doesn't make me a war maker or one who is a neocon. I am far from it, but I do have an understanding of the risks and dangers that NZ faces. I also know the costs suffering and damages that war brings and inflicts upon people. My own family have experienced it.

FYI, speaking for myself I have mokopuna - grandchildren for whom I want a safe and secure world where they have all the freedoms that I had and have. If that means that I push for a capable and resilient NZDF then I am proud to do that because it will help keep my mokopuna safe. At the same time I am also advocating for my brothers and sisters in uniform who are unable to advocate for themselves because they are not allowed to by law. They are the ones who are put into danger and possibly lose their lives. They are, and always have been my main consideration when I am advocating for NZDF.

Now as someone who has never served in the military, I understand that you are like just about any other civilian and don't understand the service culture and the bond that exists between service personnel and veterans. It's different and it's special. Family is a term that's often used and that is exactly what it is. That's why we call each other brothers and sisters. That’s why we look out for each other.

You also have the arrogance to presume that because I am of the boomer generation that our generation no longer has anything to contribute. You are very much mistaken because everyone, no matter their age, always has something to contribute to society and to the world. You should remember that because one day if you have the good fortune of good health, you will be in your dotage and with luck have mokopuna of your own. I hope that the generations that come after you aren't as judgemental of their preceding generations as you are.

Po marie.

very very well spoken

 

[Gracie1234]

I think most NZ realize that the world is changing but do not understand the impact of the change, who does? One aspect to the changing view of defense i feel has been overlooked is the number of new migrants over the past 30 years who have quite different views on what are the risks and the value of defense. I do not want to get into who thinks what, that is not my point. But we need to acknowledge that many people view defense forces in different ways and that will influence how NZ views defense. I would also like to acknowledge that their were no massive protests at all when the $20B of investment was announced. We are a wealthy country and do not have the significant financial issues we had in the 80s and 90s.

 

[spoz]

Here, here! We’ll take their rugby team and Queenstown, but the rest?

Serious question though, there was a suggestion for a “Pacific Islands Regiment” operating under the auspices of the ADF, in some manner analogous to the Gurkhas in the British Army. Some PC issues aside, I don’t mind the idea.

However would such an arrangement be more appropriate for the NZDF, given their closer historical links to Pacific Island nations?

The Pacific Islands Regiment already exists it’s the PNGDF’s infantry. While they were pretty good soldiers, at least during my time with them, they wouldn’t see themselves as becoming multinational, or some form of mercenary which is what the ghurkas are at the end.

 

[ngatimozart]

Here, here! We’ll take their rugby team and Queenstown, but the rest?

If you can relocate Queenstown help yourself. The ABs are off limits.

Serious question though, there was a suggestion for a “Pacific Islands Regiment” operating under the auspices of the ADF, in some manner analogous to the Gurkhas in the British Army. Some PC issues aside, I don’t mind the idea.

However would such an arrangement be more appropriate for the NZDF, given their closer historical links to Pacific Island nations?

A Pacific Islands Regiment wouldn't be a stupid idea. However I think it would have to be part of either the ADF or an Anzac formation for political reasons. Not Australian or NZ political reasons, but Island political reasons. The Island nations can work well together but they can also be a fractious lot, very much depending upon the personalities of the leaders. Then there is also Island time which you Aussies would find exceedingly frustrating. Some people here have problems with Māori time.

Having said all of that the Pacific Island soldier is a formidable soldier when trained right. Just look at any of the Fijian, PNG, Samoan, Tongan, etc., soldiers who are well trained. Most of them are also built like brick outhouses. You just have to look at their Rugby Union and League players. Bipedal tanks. IMHO such a Regiment would be an asset to the region.

 

[MrConservative]

It would have to come under the umbrella of the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat and the 2018 Boe Declaration which expands on the earlier Biketawa Declaration. Also the Micronesian states have pulled out of the PIF this year due to unhappiness over its leadership and the influence of NZ and Australia, so now is not a good time to progress this. I am surprised that the great Pacific reset by our useless Foreign Minister has seen five PIF members leave has not had any traction in the local media.

 

[ngatimozart]

It would have to come under the umbrella of the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat and the 2018 Boe Declaration which expands on the earlier Biketawa Declaration. Also the Micronesian states have pulled out of the PIF this year due to unhappiness over its leadership and the influence of NZ and Australia, so now is not a good time to progress this. I am surprised that the great Pacific reset by our useless Foreign Minister has seen five PIF members leave has not had any traction in the local media.

Ah but didn't you know that the local media get their instructions from the 9th Floor every Monday morning.

There is anecdotal evidence of Jacindarella getting backlash on lack of action WRT taking Afghani refugees. Quite a few of my contacts of the left wing persuasion are quite unimpressed about it and there has been grumbling on various social media platforms. People are also unimpressed with their handling of the Afghanistan rescue effort. Noticeably NZDF are praised and the government are criticised.

 

[ADMk2]

The Pacific Islands Regiment already exists it’s the PNGDF’s infantry. While they were pretty good soldiers, at least during my time with them, they wouldn’t see themselves as becoming multinational, or some form of mercenary which is what the ghurkas are at the end.

Okay the name to one side, I think the proposal meant something coming from the South Pacific nations formed from everyone of them, funded, equipped and initially trained by us.

Maybe housed and collectively trained by NZ as a joint effort? With deployments assisted by us with transports and logistics efforts for HADR and stabilisation operations as their primary operational roles, UN support and combat roles depending on partner nations interests as their secondary roles?

 

[Gooey]

if you think NZ has changed to a pro defence stance I’d like to see you trying to prove it.

Tēnā koe. Although I left over 30 years ago, I recently spent 7 months in Kiwi and, IMHO, was dismayed by the deterioration of defence standing in the nation and its sliding down the totem pole within Government influence (IE. the current capability and ranking of MinDef). Resources are everything and Rob Cs funding graph speaks volumes, over generations. Defence is not given any adequate thought, by anyone, in government. Full stop. Even former National PM Sir Key, was disturbingly flippant with his remarks on the CCP threat when interview by RNZ.

I'd also say, very sadly, that I observed stagnating professional knowledge (both female and male) within NZDF. Rapidly. It is two decades since ACF was raped by PM Clark and this has clearly had an impact on the mind-set of both RNZAF and NZDF. Literally, over night, any offensive capability has been removed. The salami slicing of other operational capabilities since ditching 75SQN et al has further reduced the standing of NZ as a nation within the Pacific. I'm afraid NZDF is little more than a coast guard, with the associated peace-keeping centric, mind-set, and promotion of associated non-warfighters. Literally. It hurts me deeply to say this.

PS. Thumbs up for the idea of a Pacific Islands Regiment, especially as per ngatimozart, via a ANZAC structure. Good luck getting the funding for that ... alongside first line FFGs, more P8s & C130s, and LRASM, F-35B etc.

Tou pono, Gooey.

 

[StingrayOZ]

The Pacific Islands Regiment already exists it’s the PNGDF’s infantry. While they were pretty good soldiers, at least during my time with them, they wouldn’t see themselves as becoming multinational, or some form of mercenary which is what the ghurkas are at the end.

There was talk about having a focus on Fiji for this. Fiji runs a huge number of UN security jobs. It has massively inflated their forces size and influence in the country.

Since 1970, per capita, Fiji has contributed more people to more UN missions, that any other nation.

Fiji: The Peacekeepers

Per capita since 1970, Fiji has contributed more personnel to UN Peacekeeping missions than any other state.

thediplomat.com

This is also part of the reason blackrock was choosen for peacekeeping center in the pacific.

Fiji and Australia sign deal over Blackrock

The Fiji and Australian governments have signed a deal that formalises their cooperation in the redevelopment of Fiji's Blackrock military training centre.

www.rnz.co.nz

Plenty of Fijians had been working in diplomatic security in places like Afghanistan. And Syria.

Situation in Kabul forces Fijian to flee - The Fiji Times

Fijian national Kitione Bonakeli Leleavono said the situation in Kabul was so bad he was forced to flee the Afghanistan capital with only the clothes he had on his back. The Lomaiviti native said he had to leave all his belongings behind when he boarded a British Royal Air Force flight for...

www.fijitimes.com

Stepping up to the UN: Australia’s peacekeeping deployment with Fiji | The Strategist

During last week’s visit to Fiji, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that Australian peacekeepers would soon be joining Fijian peacekeepers in the Golan Heights as part of the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). The ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

Its not the same as the gurkhas, which is really a huge thing, and feeds into the Nepalese forces, UK and India and beyond and involves thousands, and for generations. But there is certainly an element to it that has similarities. But usually under the Fijian armed forces. Private work only for older ones.

If a professional Pacific force could be stood up for ~$1500 a month average per quality soldier, during operations, it would seem like a very easy and cheap way to build capability as well as help the region. But it would have to be very joint and very multinational. It does become harder, anyone who knows anything about the pacific islands, knows that putting a bunch of various Fijians, Tongans, Papuans, and Samoans in a tight space is a great way to start a disagreement. Who will be in control and wear will we meet and train and base out of will be key questions.

The wider pacific community becomes very hard. Fiji has the biggest armed forces (4000), then followed by PNG(2,500). Then it drops off very quickly. Tonga has like a few hundred (small but good, early days), and Samoa has a police force. East Timor has about 2,000, but not in any state in training or equipment to travel expeditiously, Timor leste also has issues about overseas actions and the bigger global mission thing that is far less of an issue for something like Fiji.

Funny enough, no one wants to be ruled by Australia, even Australians. Australia is somewhat self-aware of its own dominance in spheres. However, there is pretty much near infinite bilateral support for effective pacific engagement. Ultimately when the SHTF Australia will be the leading nation rolling out, and until the Americans turn up, most likely have all the toys and all the strategy. We all have to get better at interfacing with each other.