China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[BigM60]

I would agree about the trade minister, but I don't resile from what I have said. Sometimes yo need to take a good look at yourselves. We aren't perfect either by any means, but what I wrote is how some see Australia.

If you can't take criticism don't dish it out. Are how the other nations in the Pacific see Australia in the wider context not defence related? I think that they very much are. You cannot silo defence and security from other activities when you are dealing at diplomatic levels because that's how diplomacy, especially in the Pacific works. If you don't understand that you are pushing manure uphill in a big way. The other thing is FVEY is an intelligence agreement, nothing more and nothing less. It is not something that the Defence Forces are engaged in and and have exercises etc., unlike the FPDA etc. Whilst some of us may use the term FVEY in a non intelligence context, it is as a shorthand to denote the FVEY nations rather than typing out the alphabet of the acronyms.

I took the criticism but I just asked you to explain it better. If you are telling me that NZ is an important security and trading partner to Australia with better links to pacific nations - then that would be a reasonable response. There is going to be a point in time when NZ will have to choose - trade or friends. No avoiding it regardless how “mature” your relationship is with China. Nothing China is doing at the moment makes them a friend but NZ should stop handing out the advice to good friends on how to roll over and take a tummy rub.

 

[alexsa]

Good day folks

Can I suggest we wind this back a bit. Australia have had situations where comment has been made about New Zealand by a politician that was less than desirable. The relationship between Australians and New Zealanders is pretty good (except where rugby is concerned) and the one between the defence forces is excellent.

I do not see a divorce on the horizon.

 

[Shanesworld]

Good day folks

Can I suggest we wind this back a bit. Australia have had situations where comment has been made about New Zealand by a politician that was less than desirable. The relationship between Australians and New Zealanders is pretty good (except where rugby is concerned) and the one between the defence forces is excellent.

I do not see a divorce on the horizon.

Give us back phar lap, dragon and pavlova and you got a deal.

 

[recce.k1]

Good day folks

Can I suggest we wind this back a bit. Australia have had situations where comment has been made about New Zealand by a politician that was less than desirable. The relationship between Australians and New Zealanders is pretty good (except where rugby is concerned) and the one between the defence forces is excellent.

I do not see a divorce on the horizon.

Well put Alexsa. I would say even in NZ our new Trade Minister's comments will also have turned heads. It will be interesting to see the reactions from our own foreign affairs analysts over the next few days. It was very "undiplomatic" (to make comment on what another country should be doing, let alone about NZ's closest ally). So far local (NZ) pushback has come in the form of the Opposition (as this issue has only been reported tonight, NZ time).

Opposition Trade Spokesman "Gerry Brownlee said the comments were not helpful and "smack of a missive from an ivory tower ... telling someone in a most undiplomatic way that they've got to be more diplomatic in their discussions with some other country".

"It's a silly thing to do," he said, "you always want to present on the basis of the principles that New Zealand lives by and that's appropriate, but it's not appropriate to start telling a country like Australia to take a leaf out of our book."

Source: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/trade-minister-says-australia-should-follow-nzs-lead-on-china-diplomacy/HFWATPL74MWDHASR27EYUYXXCM/

And from the ABC News article linked to earlier:

New Zealand Opposition MP Simon O'Connor — who is part of an international coalition of MPs who advocate a more muscular stance towards China — hit out at the country's Trade Minister.

"While it's good that New Zealand has refreshed its trade deal, the New Zealand Government should also be doing so with eyes wide open — notably that the timing suits the Chinese Communist Party's current stance against Australia," he said.

"The New Zealand Minister may want to reflect that New Zealand's current situation has little to do with diplomacy and everything to do with expediency."

So yes there is no divorce as you say and I expect the NZ Labour Party (Government) to also walk back on Trade Minister O'Connor's comments (cynically I expect the NZ Labour Party and PM to say very little publicly if they can get away with it, which is not a sign of tacit support, it's a sign of a NZ Labour Party wanting to protect "Brand Jacinda" from being associated with "bad news or controversies" in order to keep her approval ratings high to ensure the Party survives electorally), which O'Connor has himself already started to do, judging by the fact he contacted Australian Trade Minister Dan Tehan (and perhaps O'Connor can learn from the way Dan Tehan diplomatically responded when contacted by ABC News for comment).

Personally I would put it down to (Trade Minister O'Connors) inexperience in such a role. However the silver lining is hopefully it is also a wake up call for NZ to act a bit more astutely when it comes to the wider geo-strategic picture when it comes to the 3 countries involved, which for the sake of defence, foreign affairs and ensuring stabilty can only be a good thing. And yes China is playing with NZ v Australia in terms of attempting to destabalise the relationship. But I think they underestimate things ...

 

[cdxbow]

Anyway back on topic, an Interpreter article discussing how the PRC "Wolf Warrior" diplomats and others have damaged the PRC's image abroad by catering to its domestic audience feeding its nationalistic appetite. Such an approach has damaged the Great Helmsman's plans for the CCP and the PRC, yet he seems to have done nothing to curb the "Wolf Warriors" enthusiasm.

Beijing’s “Wolf Warriors” score own goals | Lowy Institute

A confounding kimchi kerfuffle shows the CCP has made people at home hungry for news of China’s dominance.

www.lowyinstitute.org

Yes, they have scored a few 'own goals'. The PRC has certainly shown a willingness to punish countries that don't behave in what they perceive as the correct way, the current 'economic warfare' with Australia is an example. Despite PRC denials, the 50 ships full of Australian coal sitting waiting to be unloaded would certainly help them over the winter given they have had to ration power. Industrial activity has had to be reduced, black outs have happened and there are some very cold folks in some of the Chinese provinces. China shivers as Australian coal ban sparks blackouts - RN Breakfast - ABC Radio National So far they have managed to punish their own people more than Australians, so yet another 'own goal'.

Somewhat ironically and despite the tensions, total Australian exports to China in December increased by $2.3bn (21%) compared with November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Monday. This was on the strength of Iron ore exports and some one off wheat sales.

I know the message to other small/medium powers is don’t be like Australia, be obedient, subservient and compliant, however they have misjudged the reaction here very badly, which probably is best described as give 'em the finger and find new markets.

 

[ngatimozart]

Yes, they have scored a few 'own goals'. The PRC has certainly shown a willingness to punish countries that don't behave in what they perceive as the correct way, the current 'economic warfare' with Australia is an example. Despite PRC denials, the 50 ships full of Australian coal sitting waiting to be unloaded would certainly help them over the winter given they have had to ration power. Industrial activity has had to be reduced, black outs have happened and there are some very cold folks in some of the Chinese provinces. China shivers as Australian coal ban sparks blackouts - RN Breakfast - ABC Radio National So far they have managed to punish their own people more than Australians, so yet another 'own goal'.

Somewhat ironically and despite the tensions, total Australian exports to China in December increased by $2.3bn (21%) compared with November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Monday. This was on the strength of Iron ore exports and some one off wheat sales.

I know the message to other small/medium powers is don’t be like Australia, be obedient, subservient and compliant, however they have misjudged the reaction here very badly, which probably is best described as give 'em the finger and find new markets.

Agree, the CCP aren't going to back down soon. Xi has far to much invested and he's taking the PRC back to the days of Mao. That's why there have been the increase in censorship, restrictions, and political education within the PRC. With Xi think Lenin, Mao and to a degree Stalin, with 21st century surveillance technology and 21st century media. Everyone in the PRC now has a social score which is the same as a credit rating, but far more important than a credit rating because if your social score isn't good, it prevents your job placements, accommodation abilities, ability to own a vehicle, phone, access the internet etc. It could also mean periodic unannounced visits from the local police and eventually accommodation in a re-education camp for a long period of time.

Digital Authoritarianism, China and COVID

The coronavirus has showcased China's cyber-powered socialcontrol capabilities, with implications for human rights worldwide.

www.lowyinstitute.org

 

[Feanor]

Agree, the CCP aren't going to back down soon. Xi has far to much invested and he's taking the PRC back to the days of Mao. That's why there have been the increase in censorship, restrictions, and political education within the PRC. With Xi think Lenin, Mao and to a degree Stalin, with 21st century surveillance technology and 21st century media. Everyone in the PRC now has a social score which is the same as a credit rating, but far more important than a credit rating because if your social score isn't good, it prevents your job placements, accommodation abilities, ability to own a vehicle, phone, access the internet etc. It could also mean periodic unannounced visits from the local police and eventually accommodation in a re-education camp for a long period of time.

Digital Authoritarianism, China and COVID

The coronavirus has showcased China's cyber-powered socialcontrol capabilities, with implications for human rights worldwide.

www.lowyinstitute.org

I'm not sure the comparison to Mao is accurate or fair. Is modern China sponsoring a slew of Maoist armed insurrections in multiple countries? Are they launching a Cultural Revolution at home? China is certainly doing some unprecedented things, and some other things that are precedented but not exactly pleasant for others or even for many of its own citizens. But Mao is Mao, and Stalin is Stalin, and modern day China, in my (truth be told relatively limited) opinion is not going down the path of either. It's also important to note that events like the Great Purge and the Cultural Revolution are as much a social phenomena as they are state policy (arguably even more so a social phenomena). Are the conditions in China ripe of an upheaval such as the Cultural Revolution?

 

[swerve]

Mao is reckoned to have launched the Cultural Revolution (or backed & boosted it, depending on who you believe) to strengthen his hand internally, by steering the mobs at anyone whose loyalty he was unsure of - & away from himself. He didn't care how much damage it did.

Xi's legitimacy is based on competence & success. He delivers prosperity, internal stability & predictability, & a strong country which the world takes notice & which its citizens can be proud of. A cultural revolution would be the complete opposite to that.

 

[John Fedup]

Do we really know how well things are in China at present? Between COVID and some economic backlash, perhaps prosperity isn’t doing so well and certainly there is a huge disparity in terms of economic success amongst the Chinese population. Then there is the increasing repression by Xi’s CCP on Chinese industrialists and of course the HK grab.

 

[Toptob]

I agree with @ngatimozart that Xi is in it for the long run, thus it would seem unlikely that he would yield to short term contingencies if he can see ways to gain advantages in playing the long game. However as @swerve notes, the legitimacy of the CCP currently lies more towards it's capacity to provide economic growth and stability. And as @John Fedup mentions it's hard to say where China stands with that at the moment.

@cdxbow stated that despite sanctions Australia's exports to China grew because of wheat sales. I would think that has something to do with that whole mess with the Three Gorges Dam and the resulting flooding that ruined harvests in important agricultural areas. What damage has this, and the pandemic and the surrounding response had for the legitimacy of the CCP? From the little information that we could glean over the last year we've seen harsh lockdowns and strict information control.

So how should we look at the crackdown in Hong Kong? Was it the CCP showing that it is strong and no one should get any ideas of being defiant or was it taking advantage of other powers being busy and expecting them to look away? Over the last year the CCP has pushed on every front she could and it doesn't look like they're done quite yet, as the Actual line of control remains hot and the PLA is becoming ever bolder in the South.

I do wonder however whether Xi is an ideologue like Lenin or Mao or if he's a more medieval kind of leader in the old imperial Chinese style. Because Xi's rise to power and the political maneuvering that followed (i.e. the purges) look a lot like the kind of palace intrigue you'd find in Chinese history. Like a ruler that cleaned house after a dynastic struggle. The fact that he named himself ruler for life does indicate to me that he has, or intends to, organize the CCP in such a way that he'll be the absolute ruler for a long time. And he at least seems to think that he has the social/political capital to stay legitimate for a long time. But I do agree with @John Fedup that China isn't as prosperous as they would like to make us think. As most of the rural population lives in third world type poverty and those megacities are home to many millions of people that live like second class citizens because they can't register so they can't participate in society. And finally with the purging of the puppet billionaires the veneer of capitalism or market economy is coming down. So what does this all mean for the legitimacy of the CCP?

 

[cdxbow]

Politico has a good article about the US should respond to the PRC Opinion | To Counter China’s Rise, the U.S. Should Focus on Xi - POLITICO It's written by 'anonymous' who is presumably a FP insider. It does end with this warning:

"In the final analysis, the major problem facing the United States in confronting Xi’s China is not one of military, economic, or technological capabilities. It is one of self-belief. There is a subtle yet corrosive force that has been at work in the United States’ national psychology for some time now, raising doubt about the nation’s future and encouraging a sense that, as a country, America’s best days may now be in the past. Adversaries sense this as well. "

This article looks at the effects so far of Xi's trade war on Oz, (note - I'm taking the hint from the previous article, I'm calling it Xi's trade war not the PRC. Column: China fails to learn from Trump backfire in trade war, is losing against Australia | Reuters

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Many multinationals are in heavy weather, some companies are close to their end, but the China North Industries Group Corporation (Norinco Group) has reported strong profits and revenues for 2020.
The net profits are even 11,8% higher than the year before.

China's Norinco Group continues strong growth

The China North Industries Group Corporation (Norinco Group) has reported strong profits and revenues for 2020. The corporation is the latest Chinese defence industrial...

www.janes.com

 

[ngatimozart]

Politico has a good article about the US should respond to the PRC Opinion | To Counter China’s Rise, the U.S. Should Focus on Xi - POLITICO It's written by 'anonymous' who is presumably a FP insider. It does end with this warning:

"In the final analysis, the major problem facing the United States in confronting Xi’s China is not one of military, economic, or technological capabilities. It is one of self-belief. There is a subtle yet corrosive force that has been at work in the United States’ national psychology for some time now, raising doubt about the nation’s future and encouraging a sense that, as a country, America’s best days may now be in the past. Adversaries sense this as well. "

This article looks at the effects so far of Xi's trade war on Oz, (note - I'm taking the hint from the previous article, I'm calling it Xi's trade war not the PRC. Column: China fails to learn from Trump backfire in trade war, is losing against Australia | Reuters

It is the PRC's trade war because Xi is the PRC. He controls the CCP which controls the PRC. Xi has eliminated his political enemies within the CCP, security forces and the PLA. He's removed the governance reforms put in place by Deng Xaio Peng, after Mao's death and the liquidation of the Gang of Four, to prevent the rise of a dictator and a cult of personality.

 

[cdxbow]

It is the PRC's trade war because Xi is the PRC. He controls the CCP which controls the PRC. Xi has eliminated his political enemies within the CCP, security forces and the PLA. He's removed the governance reforms put in place by Deng Xaio Peng, after Mao's death and the liquidation of the Gang of Four, to prevent the rise of a dictator and a cult of personality.

Yes.
Still he might become a victim of 'a cult of personality' or 'overconcentration of power' if things don't go his way.

Apparently shutting ASPI down is demand number 10 on the Chinese embassy’s 14-point grievance list, it's the 'anti-china' think tank referred to. Still I'm grateful the PRC, whoops I should say President Xi, has revealed his true face and people can make realistic judgements how to respond to his despotism. The fantasy of increasing engagement realising a more open PRC has been well and truly been buried in the dustbin of history.

 

[ngatimozart]

Yes.
Still he might become a victim of 'a cult of personality' or 'overconcentration of power' if things don't go his way.

Apparently shutting ASPI down is demand number 10 on the Chinese embassy’s 14-point grievance list, it's the 'anti-china' think tank referred to. Still I'm grateful the PRC, whoops I should say President Xi, has revealed his true face and people can make realistic judgements how to respond to his despotism. The fantasy of increasing engagement realising a more open PRC has been well and truly been buried in the dustbin of history.

I don't know if he would become a victim of a cult of personality' or 'overconcentration of power' if things don't go his way. He has had a pretty thorough purge of his enemies and his own people are in control of the organs of state security and the PLA. He in a way could be like Stalin and stay in charge until he dies from old age, liquidating all possible challenges to his position.
He has shown that he has the planning ability, vision, ambition, drive, ruthlessness, and wherewithal to get to where he is now, and unlike Stalin or Mao he gives the impression of being very sane. He's more like Lenin in that aspect, cold and ruthless.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

This newsreport confirms that china is a peace-loving country which only desire a positive dialogue to achieve a relationship full of harmony and understanding with its neighbours.

China warns Taiwan independence 'means war' as US pledges support

The warning comes days after China stepped up military activities near the self-governed island.

www.bbc.com

 

[cdxbow]

I don't know if he would become a victim of a cult of personality' or 'overconcentration of power' if things don't go his way. He has had a pretty thorough purge of his enemies and his own people are in control of the organs of state security and the PLA. He in a way could be like Stalin and stay in charge until he dies from old age, liquidating all possible challenges to his position.
He has shown that he has the planning ability, vision, ambition, drive, ruthlessness, and wherewithal to get to where he is now, and unlike Stalin or Mao he gives the impression of being very sane. He's more like Lenin in that aspect, cold and ruthless.

We all die, even the mighty Lenin died of multiple strokes before his time. Riding the ultra nationalistic tiger can be difficult at times, especially when you you have staked so much personally on it. Which is why I am concerned about Xi drumming up a 'short glorious war' in the near term to bolster his stocks.

This one made me chuckle, apparently shortages of copper are becoming a problem along with coal - Will China’s hand be forced on lifting Australian coal ban?

I don't quite know what Xi expected, that Oz would immediately go belly up and appease the PRC and comply with their 14 point plan. It's not only doing financial harm to the PRC and it's people, it's also shown the rest of the world what they are really dealing with.

 

[RoyZZConnor]

We all die, even the mighty Lenin died of multiple strokes before his time. Riding the ultra nationalistic tiger can be difficult at times, especially when you you have staked so much personally on it. Which is why I am concerned about Xi drumming up a 'short glorious war' in the near term to bolster his stocks.

This one made me chuckle, apparently shortages of copper are becoming a problem along with coal - Will China’s hand be forced on lifting Australian coal ban?

I don't quite know what Xi expected, that Oz would immediately go belly up and appease the PRC and comply with their 14 point plan. It's not only doing financial harm to the PRC and it's people, it's also shown the rest of the world what they are really dealing with.

Russian coal is far cheaper than Australian coal due to lower labor cost. And now with the bridge across the Amur river it is far cheaper to deliver coal from Russia by train than it is to deliver coal from Australia by ship. I honestly don't see any reason China will resume coal import from Australia.

First-ever Bridge Between Russia and China is Completed

The first road bridge linking Russia and China is complete after the two countries launched a natural gas pipeline on Monday.

www.travelandleisure.com

 

[swerve]

Do you have any idea what proportion of the cost of producing coal is labour? In a big open-cast mine, wages are a very small part of the cost. Location & geology are the biggest factors. Geology for obvious reasons, & location because it affects the cost of transporting coal to customers, & the operating costs of the mine, via such things as climate & the ease of getting workers, machinery & supplies in & (when necessary) out.

BTW, how does the opening of a two lane ROAD bridge across the river Amur affect the cost of transporting coal from Russia to China by TRAIN? I suggest you read what you link to. Perhaps you could also think about how a long roundabout route would be cheaper than the shorter routes through Mongolia or Zabaikalsk. Look up where Russian coking coal is dug up.

At the moment, transporting coal across that bridge would mean either a long road trip (much, much higher cost than train or ship) or taking a train off the Transsib & down the branch line to Blagoveshchensk, then offloading onto lorries (adds cost) & driving across the bridge to Heihe. There, it could either carry on by lorry (expensive per ton-kilometre) or be loaded onto trains (another cost) on the branch line from Heihe, then to the nearest main line . . . . I'm not quite sure why you think that would be cheaper than loading it onto a train in the Kuzbas & going directly to China with just one break in gauge en route.

Can you explain?

I'd also appreciate if you could explain how such a bridge could replace Chinese coal imports from Australia when its officially stated cargo capacity is about 20% of those imports.

 

[Feanor]

Making things extra fun is the fact that for Russia there are no easy ways to ship the coal by sea. And sea transport is generally far cheaper then land routes. There's also the fact that Russia consumes most of its coal itself, and while production has gone up in recent years, that fact hasn't changed. Russia's interior is notoriously difficult to access, with climate and geography being heavily against you. The major rivers in Siberia tend to flow north into the Arctic and while in the future that may become a viable shipping lane (as global warming increases, and assuming Russia completes their proposed fleets of Arktika and Lider class icebreakers) but this certainly isn't the case now. Some resources have been put into expanding the capacity of Russian rail in Siberia and the Far East, including parts of Transsib, but its still quite limited. All of this could be accelerated but would come at a cost to China, they would have to invest into Russian rail as I suspect Russia itself is not ready for another giant infrastructure project on this scale (consider the delays to the bridge across Lena to Yakutsk).

Of course this could be the route for China to go - invest heavily into expanding Russian rail capacity, in exchange for some of the ownership over them.