PRC Peoples Liberation Army Navy

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Chinese shipyards should be able to build a carrier in 2 to 3 years. They have 7 more to go. So 14 years should be doable. While Japan and US might not like the outcome of the battle, it is doubtful they will declare war on China, considering they do not have diplomatic relation with Taiwan and the fact they have a lot to lose economically. Chinese invasion of Taiwan is something they always expect considering Taiwan refuses to relinquish its claim on mainland China and Mongolia and therefore they are always a threat to mainland China.
The third carrier is still under construction so there are only two carriers at present. Producing a CV in 2-3 years is pretty demanding. If the 4th carrier is to be a CVN, it and any follow on builds will require a longer build period. If a Taiwan invasion happens, world reaction to it may or may not result in a serious military response but there will be massive economic consequences for China and significant problems for Europe, Japan, SK, and the FEYES. SE Asia will have some decisions to make wrt China should stuff hit the fan.
 

RoyZZConnor

Member
The third carrier is still under construction so there are only two carriers at present. Producing a CV in 2-3 years is pretty demanding. If the 4th carrier is to be a CVN, it and any follow on builds will require a longer build period. If a Taiwan invasion happens, world reaction to it may or may not result in a serious military response but there will be massive economic consequences for China and significant problems for Europe, Japan, SK, and the FEYES. SE Asia will have some decisions to make wrt China should stuff hit the fan.
In the coming years probably starting with 004 they'll be constructing multiple carriers at the same time instead of constructing them one by one. So the speed will surely increase. By 2030s I think they'll have 10 carriers built. I doubt there will be economic consequence with Taiwan battle. UN recognizes Taiwan as a province of China, unlike the Crimea case which UN recognizes as a province of Ukraine. So even if China takes Taiwan by force there will not be sanction. Also, such a battle will likely be bloodless as in the case of Crimea battle. Taiwanese defenses will mostly surrender after the ultimatum.

Russia took back Crimea with a short battle. Azerbaijan took back Nagorno Karabakh with a short battle. China Taiwan battle will also be very short without a high body count before China takes back Taiwan.
 
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Redlands18

Well-Known Member
In the coming years probably starting with 004 they'll be constructing multiple carriers at the same time instead of constructing them one by one. So the speed will surely increase. By 2030s I think they'll have 10 carriers built.
You are making some pretty big claims about what the PRC is going to do, do you have any proof to back these claims up?
 

RoyZZConnor

Member
You are making some pretty big claims about what the PRC is going to do, do you have any proof to back these claims up?
004 is the mass produced version. Think how Type 052 evolved from Type 052 to Type 052B to Type 052C to Type 052D, ultimately with Type 052D being the mass produced version with many Type 052D built at the same time. Same thing with 004.
 

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
004 is the mass produced version. Think how Type 052 evolved from Type 052 to Type 052B to Type 052C to Type 052D, ultimately with Type 052D being the mass produced version with many Type 052D built at the same time. Same thing with 004.
There is a huge difference between mass. Producing 10-12000t Destroyers and 100,000t Carriers.
Some advice on how Defence Talk works, you ar not allowed to make unsubstantiated claims on here without a credible source. You are making the claim that the PRC is going to build 6-7 type 004 Carriers in the next 10 years, you need to back this up with a credible source.
 

RoyZZConnor

Member
There is a huge difference between mass. Producing 10-12000t Destroyers and 100,000t Carriers.
Some advice on how Defence Talk works, you ar not allowed to make unsubstantiated claims on here without a credible source. You are making the claim that the PRC is going to build 6-7 type 004 Carriers in the next 10 years, you need to back this up with a credible source.
I didn't say they will. I said they likely will.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Chinese shipyards should be able to build a carrier in 2 to 3 years. They have 7 more to go. So 14 years should be doable. While Japan and US might not like the outcome of the battle, it is doubtful they will declare war on China, considering they do not have diplomatic relation with Taiwan and the fact they have a lot to lose economically. Chinese invasion of Taiwan is something they always expect considering Taiwan refuses to relinquish its claim on mainland China and Mongolia and therefore they are always a threat to mainland China.
There is no evidence to suggest that the PLAN is going to have 10 carriers around 2030. They only have 2 yards capable of building carriers and their first CATOBAR CV, the Type 003, will not be launched until later this year. It's not expected to achieve IOC until late 2025. It is unknown how many of these will be built, but a second carrier hull has been laid down at the Dalian shipyard. This is suspected to be a Type 003. The Type 004 CVN design process has been put on hold for about 2 months, and that is thought to because of economic problems.

So you are making some unfounded claims without evidence. Our rules require claims to be supported by evidence and links to sources. The sources for my claims are posted in recent posts that I have made on this thread.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
So we can expect every single year one Type 071 and one Type 075 at least coming out of this shipyard.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
"The new submarine will be part of the Chinese Navy’s (PLAN) massive expansion. Nuclear powered submarines will be critical to its ambition of becoming a true blue-water Navy. New Type-095 (more properly written Type-09V) is an attack submarine which is expected to be more closely comparable to the US Navy’s Virginia-class. And the Type-096 (Type-09VI) which increase the survivability and reach of China’s at sea nuclear deterrent."

Its amazing how a country can develop if there is an almost unlimited budget, the political will and the capability to gather knowledge and expertise by "forced Transfer of Technology".
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I wonder if this article about Chinese submariners will have any consequences for the submarine expansion program. To be fair, these issues probably exist for all submariners. However, as the article suggests, the more educated submariners on Chinese SSN/BNs may be more aware of potential problems, especially given the pace of new construction.
Chinese submarine sailors report significant mental health problems in rare study
Chinese submarine sailors report significant mental health problems in rare study
 

RoyZZConnor

Member
Making claims without providing sources as required by Forum Rules. 12 points for 12 months.
Its amazing how a country can develop if there is an almost unlimited budget, the political will and the capability to gather knowledge and expertise by "forced Transfer of Technology".
Not necessarily unlimited but I think it's safe to say China has been a global power since at least 2000 BC and continues to be this day. Such naval projects are not unexpected. China has always been a country with a strong work ethic. If anything, starting from this year, China will be working harder than ever to regain its place under the sun.
 

RoyZZConnor

Member
So we can expect every single year one Type 071 and one Type 075 at least coming out of this shipyard.
1 Type 075 DDH / LHD per year seems doable. I wouldn't be surprised if multiple such ships are under construction starting this year or the next rather than building them one after the other. I do wonder what sort of anti ship helicopters they will order for these ships. Ka-52K which is equipped with AESA and Kh-35 anti ship missiles are readily available and takes up less space than a naval version of Z-20. It's the most likely candidate IMO after purchase of Su-35 and S-400 recently.

 
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RoyZZConnor

Member
Image not sourced as required by Forum Rules. 12 points for 12 months.
a newly built Type 052DL heading out for sea trial

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
In the coming years probably starting with 004 they'll be constructing multiple carriers at the same time instead of constructing them one by one. So the speed will surely increase. By 2030s I think they'll have 10 carriers built. I doubt there will be economic consequence with Taiwan battle. UN recognizes Taiwan as a province of China, unlike the Crimea case which UN recognizes as a province of Ukraine. So even if China takes Taiwan by force there will not be sanction. Also, such a battle will likely be bloodless as in the case of Crimea battle. Taiwanese defenses will mostly surrender after the ultimatum.

Russia took back Crimea with a short battle. Azerbaijan took back Nagorno Karabakh with a short battle. China Taiwan battle will also be very short without a high body count before China takes back Taiwan.
It's pretty crazy to suggest that retaking Taiwan would be as east as annexing Crimea was. It's even crazier to put the 1.5 months long NKR war with thousands of dead, ballistic missile strikes against cities, and tens of thousands of troops actively engaged from both sides, in the same category as the relatively peaceful annexation of Crimea. I'm getting the idea that you literally have no idea what you're talking about. What short battle are you referring to in the taking of Crimea and how do you consider it at all comparable to the last NKR war? And what basis do you have for claiming that Taiwan would surrender after "the ultimatum"?

For the benefit of everyone else here the key factors that worked in Russia's favor when annexing Crimea were as follows;

1) Ukraine was economically doing significantly worse then Russia
2) Crimea had a majority ethnic Russian population, unlike the rest of Ukraine
3) point #2 above caused significant tensions between Crimea with its local government, and the central government in Kiev, which Kiev handled extremely poorly, and Russia took advantage of this
4) Crimea was part of the same country with Russia as recently as 1991, within the living memory of the majority of its inhabitants
5) the institutions of statehood in Ukraine had decayed to an extreme point
6) the Ukrainian military and civil authorities in Crimea were largely sympathetic to a Russian takeover, likely more so then the population itself
7) there is a disparity of military power between Russia and Ukraine that made a full-on war a non-option for Kiev
8) while Crimea is a peninsula that Russia can only reach by water, the strait is extremely narrow and easy to cross, Russia already had a large military presence in Crimea, and the rest of Ukraine has a long and poorly defended land border with Russia
9) Ukraine's military had also decayed to a point where mustering large numbers of combat ready troops bordered on impossible
10) Ukraine had to deal with the possibility (a possibility that became a reality) of other pro-Russian uprisings
11) Russian and Ukrainian societies were not that different pre-2014, and many people travelled back and forth, had families on different sides of the border, and did business in both countries or across the border, becoming part of Russia did not mean an unthinkable change to regular life

None of these factors apply to Taiwan. Taiwan has been separate from China for much longer than 1991. The population of Taiwan does not appear to be sympathetic to a PRC takeover. The state institutions of Taiwan are functioning just fine. The government of Taiwan also does not appear to be sympathetic to a PRC takeover. Taiwan does not have an "external" threat from which it wants protection (the way Crimean authorities had with Kiev). Taiwan has a large and highly capable military that displays impressive combat readiness. Taiwan is separate from mainland China by a fairly wide strait, and there is no easy crossing into Taiwan. China does not currently have any military bases in Taiwan. China is a wildly different country from Taiwan in terms of society, culture, and economics. Integrating Taiwan would be either an extremely painful affair, or extremely slow (possibly both).

Realistically speaking its far from certain that the PRC would even manage to occupy and take over Taiwan as things stand now. They're certainly stronger, but Taiwan is not a small and isolated corner of the world. For all practical purposes it's a large country in its own right with economic and diplomatic ties to many other countries (even if these ties are sometimes less than official). Even with the situation in Ukraine, Russia only moved after an illegal change of government took place when armed rioters broken into the government quarter in Kiev, and president Yanukovich fled. I don't know enough about the internal politics of Taiwan to speculate on the possibility of such an event occurring, but its a rather special and particular circumstance.
 

RoyZZConnor

Member
Spurious claims without adequate evidence. 12 points for 12 months.
It's pretty crazy to suggest that retaking Taiwan would be as east as annexing Crimea was. It's even crazier to put the 1.5 months long NKR war with thousands of dead, ballistic missile strikes against cities, and tens of thousands of troops actively engaged from both sides, in the same category as the relatively peaceful annexation of Crimea. I'm getting the idea that you literally have no idea what you're talking about. What short battle are you referring to in the taking of Crimea and how do you consider it at all comparable to the last NKR war? And what basis do you have for claiming that Taiwan would surrender after "the ultimatum"?

For the benefit of everyone else here the key factors that worked in Russia's favor when annexing Crimea were as follows;

1) Ukraine was economically doing significantly worse then Russia
2) Crimea had a majority ethnic Russian population, unlike the rest of Ukraine
3) point #2 above caused significant tensions between Crimea with its local government, and the central government in Kiev, which Kiev handled extremely poorly, and Russia took advantage of this
4) Crimea was part of the same country with Russia as recently as 1991, within the living memory of the majority of its inhabitants
5) the institutions of statehood in Ukraine had decayed to an extreme point
6) the Ukrainian military and civil authorities in Crimea were largely sympathetic to a Russian takeover, likely more so then the population itself
7) there is a disparity of military power between Russia and Ukraine that made a full-on war a non-option for Kiev
8) while Crimea is a peninsula that Russia can only reach by water, the strait is extremely narrow and easy to cross, Russia already had a large military presence in Crimea, and the rest of Ukraine has a long and poorly defended land border with Russia
9) Ukraine's military had also decayed to a point where mustering large numbers of combat ready troops bordered on impossible
10) Ukraine had to deal with the possibility (a possibility that became a reality) of other pro-Russian uprisings
11) Russian and Ukrainian societies were not that different pre-2014, and many people travelled back and forth, had families on different sides of the border, and did business in both countries or across the border, becoming part of Russia did not mean an unthinkable change to regular life

None of these factors apply to Taiwan. Taiwan has been separate from China for much longer than 1991. The population of Taiwan does not appear to be sympathetic to a PRC takeover. The state institutions of Taiwan are functioning just fine. The government of Taiwan also does not appear to be sympathetic to a PRC takeover. Taiwan does not have an "external" threat from which it wants protection (the way Crimean authorities had with Kiev). Taiwan has a large and highly capable military that displays impressive combat readiness. Taiwan is separate from mainland China by a fairly wide strait, and there is no easy crossing into Taiwan. China does not currently have any military bases in Taiwan. China is a wildly different country from Taiwan in terms of society, culture, and economics. Integrating Taiwan would be either an extremely painful affair, or extremely slow (possibly both).

Realistically speaking its far from certain that the PRC would even manage to occupy and take over Taiwan as things stand now. They're certainly stronger, but Taiwan is not a small and isolated corner of the world. For all practical purposes it's a large country in its own right with economic and diplomatic ties to many other countries (even if these ties are sometimes less than official). Even with the situation in Ukraine, Russia only moved after an illegal change of government took place when armed rioters broken into the government quarter in Kiev, and president Yanukovich fled. I don't know enough about the internal politics of Taiwan to speculate on the possibility of such an event occurring, but its a rather special and particular circumstance.
Soldiers won't fight to the death, especially in the face of overwhelming enemy superiority. Russia retook South Sakhalin and Kurils from Japan in WW2 without a high casualty only a few hundred KIA and that was against Japanese who are averse to surrendering. I expect more than 90% of Taiwanese military to lay down their arms and surrender without a fight. Sure, some diehards will fight to the death, but the overall casualty would not be particularly high. The technologically advanced Chinese military would likely suffer less than a hundred KIA and the Taiwanese military could see a couple hundred KIA. Body count should be much less than Falklands war which had about 800 KIA total.

 
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RoyZZConnor

Member
Source not provided as required by Forum Rules. 12 points for 12 months.
The 8th Type 071 LPD 985 has been commissioned.

 

swerve

Super Moderator
Japan had already lost when the USSR invaded. The emperor announced the surrender on August 14th. The invasion of the Kuriles began on August 18th, with the main landings from the 22nd. Those Japanese soldiers who resisted were ordered by Tokyo to surrender on the 23rd, & most obeyed. The Red Army still lost 1000 or so dead, against a demoralised & mostly unresisting army of a beaten country which had already announced that it was surrendering.

In South Sakhalin the Red Army had overwhelming numbers & even greater superiority in firepower. The attack began earlier, before the Japanese surrender but after the atomic bombings. The Japanese defences were still holding out when they were ordered to stop fighting by Imperial HQ, on August 15th. They didn't all obey immediately, but many did. Most Japanese casualties were after that surrender order.

It's really, really hard to defeat an army which has been ordered to surrender, isn't it?
 

RoyZZConnor

Member
Providing inaccurate information. 12 points for 12 months.
Japan had already lost when he USSR invaded. The emperor announced the surrender on August 14th. The invasion of the Kuriles began on August 18th, with the main landings from the 22nd. Those Japanese soldiers who resisted were ordered by Tokyo to surrender on the 23rd, & most obeyed. The Red Army still lost 1000 or so dead, against a demoralised & mostly unresisting army of a beaten country which had already announced that it was surrendering.

In South Sakhalin the Red Army had overwhelming numbers & even greater superiority in firepower. The attack began earlier, before the Japanese surrender but after the atomic bombings. The Japanese defences were still holding out when they were ordered to stop fighting by Imperial HQ, on August 15th. They didn't all obey immediately, but many did. Most Japanese casualties were after that surrender order.

It's really, really hard to defeat an army which has been ordered to surrender, isn't it?
Japan surrendered to US, not to USSR. The main reason of the poor defense of South Sakhalin and Kurils is the Japanese belief USSR would honor the Non Aggression Treaty between USSR and Japan which Japan honored in the war by not invading USSR from the east to help Germany.
 
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