Japan, Koreas, China and Taiwan regional issues

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
In other news, President Donald Trump fired Defense Secretary Mark Esper on Monday, an unprecedented move by a president struggling to accept election defeat and angry at a Pentagon leader he believes wasn’t loyal enough. The decision was widely expected as Trump had grown increasingly unhappy with Esper.

Christopher Miller, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, will serve as acting secretary, sidestepping the department’s No.2-ranking official, Deputy Defense Secretary David Norquist.

I doubt it. The historical grievances Koreans have towards Japan has become part of their culture to an extent. My Korean and Korean-American students have told me that their parents didn't let them play with Japanese kids in school. Their parents haven't taken them to any Japanese restaurants and do not buy any Japanese brands. So, I doubt 4 years of Biden & Harris is going to affect these deeply ingrained feelings.
Thanks for the additional info and current context that is sad to hear. See this 2015 article that also explains — Korean nationalism is anti-Japanese: http://sinonk.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Denney_Dipl-Mag-Vol.-3_SK-Anti-Japanese-Sentiment.pdf
 
Last edited:

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
President-elect Biden’s competence as POTUS on display with regard to addressing Japan’s direct concerns with China’s intrusions into their terrorist waters; and this support by Biden to Suga provides clear justification and value to the Japanese, who have invested in 147 F-35As and F-35Bs, to be the World’s 2nd largest operator of stealth aircraft.

Trump has always tried to ‘extort’ money via host nation support payments from Japan.

This is in stark contrast to Trump’s incompetence.
 
Last edited:

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
Confirming the Senkaku (etc) Islands are covered by the US-Japan defence treaty is good news as far as Japan and even Taiwan are concerned. It's an early marker to China that he won't be soft on it just because he's a Democrat/not Trump. Beijing won't be happy that they'll have no scope to pick off outlying Japanese islands without a US response.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Beijing won't be happy that they'll have no scope to pick off outlying Japanese islands without a US response.
1. I see your point but I think it is not about the Chinese CCP being unhappy or happy; their goal is to improve their position and the PLA(N) will stop advancing or pause when they meet an opponent with (i) capability and (ii) resolve. In Dragon Against the Sun: Chinese Views of Japanese Seapower, Senior Fellow Toshi Yoshihara assesses how Chinese strategists perceive the shift in the Sino-Japanese naval balance. Yoshihara shows that the local naval imbalance, if left unaddressed, will strain the U.S.-Japan alliance and destabilize Asia.

2. The above study advances a two-fold argument.
  • First, Beijing anticipates an intensifying naval rivalry with Tokyo in the coming years. According to the Chinese narrative, a combination of realist impulses, insecurity, ill will, and deeply ingrained cultural traits have inclined Japan to perceive China’s naval ascent as a grave threat. Japan, so goes this logic, will do its utmost to frustrate Chinese maritime ambitions. In conjunction with its U.S. ally, Tokyo will organize a coalition of like-minded maritime powers to surround and counterbalance China at sea. In Chinese eyes, Sino-Japanese maritime competition and naval confrontation are virtually fated.

  • Second, the prospects of naval superiority—driven by China’s quest for rejuvenation by mid- century—will persuade Chinese statesmen and commanders to adopt an offensive strategy in a local maritime conflict against Japan. The accumulation of naval power has furnished warfighting options hitherto unavailable to Chinese leaders. In the past, China’s navy had to settle for operations to deny the enemy fleet’s operational and tactical objectives. Now, large numbers of advanced weaponry along with improved seamanship will allow the PLAN to launch offensive operations for localized sea control. Decisive engagements will constitute a core component of China’s war-winning strategy.
Beijing’s naval prowess has also buoyed its confidence, a mindset that had been absent in previous discourse. China is increasingly convinced that it possesses the means and skills at sea to bend Japan to its will. Such confidence will increase the likelihood that Beijing would act on its threat of violence. The convergence of China’s hardening national will and growing naval power thus bodes ill for the future stability of Indo-Pacific maritime affairs.

3. In terms of air power, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force‘s 98 F-15Js upgraded into the JSI configuration, over 60 F-2s and 147 F-35s (a mix of both As and Bs) on order, has a force structure that is by design, resourced to be superior in the air.

4. In terms of sea control and amphibious operations:
(i) the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF), with its 4 Escort Flotilla, has the capability to defend these outlying Japanese islands; and​
(ii) if the need arises, the 3,000 strong Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) has equipping and resolve to take them back.​

5. The JASDF’s sortie generation capability, the JMSDF’s ability to conduct ASW and surface warfare and Japan’s geographic position in the first island chain, all combine to loom large in Chinese thinking. The American and Japanese air and naval bases on the Japanese archipelago is a barrier to China’s maritime ambitions. These bases provide the basis upon which U.S. power projection rests. Tokyo possesses the latent capacity to choke off Chinese shipping, whether commercial or military in character. The doctrinal and unofficial literature shows that Beijing still regards Japan’s military capability and geophysical location with considerable trepidation.

6. The Ryukyus Islands and Okinawa worry the Chinese. The proximity of the Southwest Islands to Taiwan and Japan’s ongoing plans to garrison the island chain are another source of concern. The Chinese take seriously Japan’s ability to wage offensive mine warfare along the narrow seas and chokepoints. But Chinese perceptions of such immutable factors as geography have also begun to evolve. They see potential vulnerability in Japan’s position along its southern flank. These far-flung islands are hundreds of kilometers from the Japanese main islands, the logistical and material foundation of Japan’s defending forces. Should war break out, Japan would have to rush naval forces based in Yokosuka, Sasebo, and other bases to the scene of action. PLA forces could seek to interdict such reinforcements, which must flow across long and tenuous lines of communications.

7. As noted above, the writings suggest that Japan’s wartime position, may be less secure than once presumed.

8. Therefore, American willingness (with 50,000 troops based there) to stand with their Japan ally, in for any naval battle in the event of armed hostility, will protect the current peace and status quo thus ensuring:

“The greatest victory, which requires no battle.”​

 
Last edited:

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
I see your point but I think it is not about the Chinese CCP being unhappy or happy; their goal is to improve their position
I agree that Beijing will continue to work on its naval expansion, but at the same time it does seek to isolate its competitiors diplomatically so that any allies those countries have are reluctant to get involved.

Japan has a formal defence treaty with the US, but there's nothing in it to say that the US has to get involved in all territorial disputes Japan has. Beijing would avoid openly declaring war on Tokyo, and I can see a theoretical weak-willed US President justifying military inaction on the basis that the Senkakus are uninhabited and disputed territory. That's the sort of scenario Beijing would hope for, so it can just deal with Japan, or alternatively Japan with just US logistical/recon support. Biden knocking that scenario away will be frustrating for the CCP.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
To Ground 140+ F-16s after a single accident is quite a big decision.

"There have been seven crashes involving F16s since Taiwan took delivery of the fighters purchased from the United States in 1997." Loosing 7 from the 150 F-16s over a period of 23 years, thats not that much compared to other air forces.

Hopefully the pilot survived the crash .


Btw, the US already approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to Taiwan for 66 F-16C/D/V Block 70 aircraft and related equipment and support for an estimated cost of $8 billion, but is the contract already signed and when will the deliveries start?
 
Last edited:

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
To Ground 140+ F-16s after a single accident is quite a big decision.
It could also just be routine. When the F-5 crashed fairly recently, the fleet was recertified for service within a matter of weeks.

My guess is that these "grounded" F-16s would still be scrambled if a Chinese attack was being launched, because they're not going to be examined simultaneously. Plus given the time of year it's highly improbable a Chinese invasion would be mounted now, so it's not a bad time to make additional checks on the fleet.

is the contract already signed and when will the deliveries start?
The contract was signed in August. Deliveries start in 2023, with completion in 2026.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member

The ministry yesterday evening released the preliminary findings of its investigation at a news conference in Taipei.

Radio communications and maintenance records indicate that all systems were normal, and the chance of an accident due to mechanical failure is low, air force Commander General Hsiung Hou-chi (熊厚基) said.
@Musashi_kenshin The rules require a poster to provide some personal opinion in each post. No copy and pasting. Please do not do this again.

Ngatimozart
 
Last edited by a moderator:

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
1. In the economic arena, the Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, agreed to restart business travel between the two countries later in November, after months of discussions on reopening the routes amid the coronavirus pandemic.

2. While Motegi may view a stable relationship between Japan and China as being critically important in North East Asia, Wang Yi continues to adopt a policy of economic engagement but a policy of confrontation in the security arena. According to Japanese observers, China has been aggravating tensions by increasing the presence of China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels in the contiguous zone of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. The frequently cited graph put together by the Japan Coast Guard (JCG) shows that the number of Chinese official ships inside the contiguous zone increased dramatically starting in April 2019. In the 17-month period from April 2019 through August 2020, Chinese vessels were inside the contiguous zone 456 days out of 519. In the previous 17-month period from November 2017 through March 2019, Chinese vessels were inside the contiguous zone 227 days out of 516.

(a) For months this year, China has been sending government vessels to waters near the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands; Tokyo has labeled this as a “relentless” campaign to take control of the disputed islets. But more disconcerting for Tokyo is the refusal to deescalate tensions. Japan continues its engagement of India through the ‘Quad’, as a soft hedge against a rising China.​
(b) The negative Chinese reactions to the US-centred alliance system – means that Biden’s refocus on working with allies will cause concern in Beijing. Beijing expresses deepening frustration towards, and even open opposition to, US-Japan alliance strengthening, and instead champions alternative security architectures free of what it alleges to be “exclusive,” “zero-sum,” “Cold-war relic” US-centred alliances.​
(c) China did not like that U.S. President-elect Joe Biden assured the leaders of Japan and South Korea of his commitment to alliances with the two Asian nations in phone calls, signaling that he will pursue a markedly different strategy from Donald Trump. Biden told Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga that the security treaty between the two countries covers East China Sea islands also claimed by China.​
The highlight of Exercise Keen Sword 21 (KS21) is the joint offshore island defense drill at Gaja-Jima, a small uninhabited island in the Tokara Islands, about 200km southwest of the Kagoshima Prefecture. Japan’s Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade, a 3,000 strong unit specifically set up to defend offshore islands,​
(d) In a separate call with South Korean President Moon Jae-in, Biden reaffirmed his commitment to defending South Korea and resolving North Korea nuclear issues together, calling the country a “linchpin” for regional security.​
(e) The uneasy atmosphere at a joint news conference between Motegi and Wang Yi, in Tokyo, reflects the difficult reality that the rift between two Asian powerhouses runs deep on national security issues.​

3. China’s top diplomat’s visit to Japan (near the end of Trump’s rule), prompts a recalibration of Beijing’s relations with its neighbours, like Japan. Wang Yi said “the coronavirus is still raging across the world and the world affairs are rapidly changing. The world has entered a period of turbulence and upheaval. … It’s necessary for both of us to communicate strategically in a timely manner."
 
Last edited:

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
Wang Yi continues to adopt a policy of economic engagement but a policy of confrontation in the security arena. According to Japanese observers, China has been aggravating tensions by increasing the presence of China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels in the contiguous zone of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.

....China’s top diplomat’s visit to Japan (near the end of Trump’s rule), prompts a recalibration of Beijing’s relations with its neighbours, like Japan. Wang Yi said “the coronavirus is still raging across the world and the world affairs are rapidly changing. The world has entered a period of turbulence and upheaval. … It’s necessary for both of us to communicate strategically in a timely manner."
This is where China's foreign policy starts to break down. It wants to be able to push other countries around, but at the same time it demands they follow "diplomatic norms" and "talk things out". That may work for a chicken-shit country loaded with Chinese debt, but it's not going to work on Japan - it doesn't even work on Taiwan.

Diplomacy occasionally can make for good TV at home, but most frequently it's about getting what you want in the easiest way possible. It was only a few years ago that most countries around the world still wanted to have close relations with China and were happy to ignore things like human rights. But there's only so much you can take, especially when you're being told you have to buy from Huawei, or you're being told that you can't respond to Chinese provocation and have to act as if nothing happened.

I honestly doubt the average Chinese person cares that average fishing boat/coastguard incursions on Japanese territory are up year-on-year by a factor of x. They might be interested in the government saying they haven't given up their territorial claims, but that's about it. Whereas the average Japanese person is more likely to be worried because it looks like a growing threat. That piles pressure on Tokyo to do something about it, not to capitulate - and that's a real achievement given Japanese people are not all that nationalistic.

Besides, and this is the kicker, China has proposed no viable solution to the future of the Senkakus. If China keeps violating Japanese territory in those circumstances it only feeds suspicion that it plans to annex them.

Tokyo justifies the expansion of its military arsenal on the basis of the threat posed by North Korea, but it's fairly obvious China's threats are as much a factor, if not a greater one. That's not in China's interests, but Beijing is either unable or too proud to see this.
 

Panacea

New Member
This is where China's foreign policy starts to break down. It wants to be able to push other countries around, but at the same time it demands they follow "diplomatic norms" and "talk things out". That may work for a chicken-shit country loaded with Chinese debt, but it's not going to work on Japan - it doesn't even work on Taiwan.

Diplomacy occasionally can make for good TV at home, but most frequently it's about getting what you want in the easiest way possible. It was only a few years ago that most countries around the world still wanted to have close relations with China and were happy to ignore things like human rights. But there's only so much you can take, especially when you're being told you have to buy from Huawei, or you're being told that you can't respond to Chinese provocation and have to act as if nothing happened.

I honestly doubt the average Chinese person cares that average fishing boat/coastguard incursions on Japanese territory are up year-on-year by a factor of x. They might be interested in the government saying they haven't given up their territorial claims, but that's about it. Whereas the average Japanese person is more likely to be worried because it looks like a growing threat. That piles pressure on Tokyo to do something about it, not to capitulate - and that's a real achievement given Japanese people are not all that nationalistic.

Besides, and this is the kicker, China has proposed no viable solution to the future of the Senkakus. If China keeps violating Japanese territory in those circumstances it only feeds suspicion that it plans to annex them.

Tokyo justifies the expansion of its military arsenal on the basis of the threat posed by North Korea, but it's fairly obvious China's threats are as much a factor, if not a greater one. That's not in China's interests, but Beijing is either unable or too proud to see this.
Japan itself is involved in island disputes with every single neighbor in this region, namely China, South Korea, North Korea, Russia... it isn't as innocent as you try to portray it to be.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
Japan itself is involved in island disputes with every single neighbor in this region, namely China, South Korea, North Korea, Russia... it isn't as innocent as you try to portray it to be.
Like it or not, Japan controls the Senkaku Islands. That's a fact. If China wants to change that, it's not going to get its way by pushing Japan around and simultaneously demanding Japan be restrained in how it responds.

Also China has territorial disputes with several of its neighbours (not just Japan), as does South Korea, North Korea, Russia and Taiwan. So I'm not sure what your point is.
 

Panacea

New Member
Like it or not, Japan controls the Senkaku Islands. That's a fact. If China wants to change that, it's not going to get its way by pushing Japan around and simultaneously demanding Japan be restrained in how it responds.

Also China has territorial disputes with several of its neighbours (not just Japan), as does South Korea, North Korea, Russia and Taiwan. So I'm not sure what your point is.
My point is having territorial disputes is common among neighbors, it's not right trying to portray one as an agressor and the other the victim, it's far more complicated than that. Japan is not loved in her immediate neighborhood.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
My point is having territorial disputes is common among neighbors, it's not right trying to portray one as an agressor and the other the victim, it's far more complicated than that.
China is the one harassing Japan, not the other way around - Japan doesn't send its ships near to Chinese held islands, and if it did it wouldn't be as frequently as China pushes around Japan's borders. It isn't complicated in the slightest.

Japan is not loved in her immediate neighborhood.
Japan gets on very well with Taiwan and Mongolia. North Korea is simply insane. South Korea moves between talking tough on Japan for scoring political points and seeking better relations - currently we're in phase 2. Russia largely doesn't mind. That leaves China. Moving further afield, Japan has generally good relations with ASEAN nations, Australia, New Zealand, India, etc.
 
Last edited:

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
My point is having territorial disputes is common among neighbors, it's not right trying to portray one as an agressor and the other the victim, it's far more complicated than that. Japan is not loved in her immediate neighborhood.
The actual point is that the PRC is acting outside of established norms of behaviour amongst civilised nations. It's actions are against international law and it's calls for nations to follow "diplomatic norms" are hollow and two faced when itself doesn't follow diplomatic norms. Its actions in the South and East China Seas have shown that it's signature on any agreement is not worth the paper its printed on. It is a signatory to the UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law Of the Sea), which it willingly agreed to join and then ratify, and has since blatantly broken on multiple occasions. The Philippines took a case against the PRC to International Arbitration which found in favour of the Philippines and the PRC won’t accept. The PRC has a Free Trade Agreement with Australia and at present it is breaching the terms of that agreement by imposing illegal sanctions on Australian products. The PRC has a history of using trade as a weapon to punish nations who don't do what it demands. The security law it forced on Hong Kong makes it illegal for anyone, anywhere in the world, regardless of their nationality and country of residence, to criticise the CCP. That is pure arrogance and that law is just shows the delusions of the leadership.

So it is right to portray the PRC as the aggressor because it is acting as one. The claim that you make that Japan is not loved in her immediate neighbourhood is spurious. Taiwan quite likes Japan as do some other nations. Just for your information Taiwan is not and never was part of the PRC, nor do the Taiwanese want to be. By rights they should be an independent nation. If the PRC cannot except that then it's no better than a spoilt toddler.

Finally we do not accept state run propaganda or trolls.
 

Panacea

New Member
China is the one harassing Japan, not the other way around - Japan doesn't send its ships near to Chinese held islands, and if it did it wouldn't be as frequently as China pushes around Japan's borders. It isn't complicated in the slightest.
Who told you that? Japan is not a neighbor of Mongolia and Taiwan(Republic of China) has the same claim over Diaoyu Islands, people in Taiwan repeatedly take the street against Japan's occupation of Diaoyu Islands, on Diaoyu Islands, PRC and ROC are on the same page.
 

Panacea

New Member
The actual point is that the PRC is acting outside of established norms of behaviour amongst civilised nations. It's actions are against international law and it's calls for nations to follow "diplomatic norms" are hollow and two faced when itself doesn't follow diplomatic norms. Its actions in the South and East China Seas have shown that it's signature on any agreement is not worth the paper its printed on. It is a signatory to the UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law Of the Sea), which it willingly agreed to join and then ratify, and has since blatantly broken on multiple occasions. The Philippines took a case against the PRC to International Arbitration which found in favour of the Philippines and the PRC won’t accept. The PRC has a Free Trade Agreement with Australia and at present it is breaching the terms of that agreement by imposing illegal sanctions on Australian products. The PRC has a history of using trade as a weapon to punish nations who don't do what it demands. The security law it forced on Hong Kong makes it illegal for anyone, anywhere in the world, regardless of their nationality and country of residence, to criticise the CCP. That is pure arrogance and that law is just shows the delusions of the leadership.

So it is right to portray the PRC as the aggressor because it is acting as one. The claim that you make that Japan is not loved in her immediate neighbourhood is spurious. Taiwan quite likes Japan as do some other nations. Just for your information Taiwan is not and never was part of the PRC, nor do the Taiwanese want to be. By rights they should be an independent nation. If the PRC cannot except that then it's no better than a spoilt toddler.

Finally we do not accept state run propaganda or trolls.
It's more like western "international norm" and it's shifting with the gradual decline of the west, new world order and norm are in the making.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
1. Welcome to Defencetalk.

My point is having territorial disputes is common among neighbors, it's not right trying to portray one as an agressor and the other the victim, it's far more complicated than that. Japan is not loved in her immediate neighborhood.
2. It is true that Japan has territorial disputes with its neighbours and that the world isnt simply black-white/good-evil. But china has not just disputes with some of its neighbours, it has territorial and EEZ disputes with Bhutan, Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, South-Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and even North-Korea.
So the chinese dont only have disputes with much more countries which are also much further away, but their attitude towards these countries is also much more intimidating and agressive.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Who told you that? Japan is not a neighbor of Mongolia and Taiwan(Republic of China) has the same claim over Diaoyu Islands, people in Taiwan repeatedly take the street against Japan's occupation of Diaoyu Islands, in Diaoyu Islands, PRC and ROC are on the same page.
It's common knowledge. Something that is not censored by the CCP. We can look it up on the Internet. Japan is in the same region as Mongolia, so don't try arguing semantics.

You provide a reputable reliable independent source for your claim that people in Taiwan are repeatedly taking to the streets against Japanese "occupation" of the Senkaku Islands. PRC media sources such as Global Times and Xinhua, or RT of Russia are not acceptable. Nor is Fox News of the US. This is a Moderators requirement and failure to respond to this will result in further action being taken against you by the Moderation Team.
 
Top