Ukranian Crisis

[Nick underscore]

Ukraine and Russia agreed to the swap (finally). 2 GRU officers for Savchenko. Both back in their respective countries.

 

[Feanor]

There's information that Russia has agreed to the idea of an armed OSCE peace-keeping mission in Eastern Ukraine. This comes on top of a recent burst of fighting, when the rebels first lost ground, then regained in a decisive counter-offensive.

Украина заÑвила о ÑоглаÑии Ñо Ñтороны Ð*оÑÑии на полицейÑкую миÑÑию ОБСЕ в ДонбаÑÑе | Военный информатор

 

[lowgo]

Some media outlets report Russian heavy equipment massed near Armyansk and Dzhankoy.

Looks like its based on the post made by Nariman Dzhelalov the deputy head of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar:

facebook.com/nariman.dzhelalov/posts/1177641688966356

State Border Service of Ukraine confirms Russia also closed its checkpoints along the Crimean border with Ukraine on Sunday morning.

Any idea whats that about?

PS. Sorry for plain text link but cant post urls.

 

[Toblerone]

https://southfront.org/1-killed-3-injured-in-firefight-at-border-between-crimea-and-ukraine-reports/

I don't know much about that region but I read that news article earlier.
Maybe the escalation has to do with this little skirmish?

 

[Feanor]

Allegedly a group of Ukrainian fighters tried to cross into Crimea. The Russian troop movements were not additional units but units already there being moved closer to the border, to back up the border guards.

 

[Boatteacher]

Allegedly a group of Ukrainian fighters tried to cross into Crimea. The Russian troop movements were not additional units but units already there being moved closer to the border, to back up the border guards.

This has a horrible sense of being a re-run of the Polish set up in 1939. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Feanor]

This has a horrible sense of being a re-run of the Polish set up in 1939. I hope I'm wrong.

It sure doesn't look like it though. There are no giant concentrations of Russian troops near the Eastern Ukrainian border. And the forces in Crimea are ill-positioned for this. Meanwhile Ukraine has declared large-scale exercises in Kherson, right across the border. To top it off there are dead Russian service members, captured Ukrainian personnel in Crimea, and a fairly muted response from Russia, so far. Finally certain "patriotic" activists in Ukraine have threatened to do things of this sort for a while. It's not inconceivable that a hair-brained scheme was cooked up by some part of the military. And it's even likely that if this took place, Russian intelligence services knew it was going to happen, and let it happen, so they could take them red-handed. Keep in mind, over the past year, the OSCE has consistently reported ceasefire violations from the Ukrainian side, and there is increased fatigue over dealing with that mess among many European nations. Then again, with this whole mess, who knows. Maybe it was all cooked up by Russian intelligence services as an excuse to take certain people under arrest and make Ukraine look bad. Of course it's hard to fake heavy weapons fire from the Ukrainian side of the border, which was reported in an official statement.

One thing I think we can be fairly certain of, this is not the prelude to a Russian blitz through Ukraine.

EDIT: I will write a bigger post with updated information, if I have time, after work.

 

[Tsavo Lion]

Russia Launches Naval Exercises in Black Sea Amid Escalating Standoff with Ukraine
Reid Standish,Foreign Policy Magazine 5 hours ago

One day after Russia accused Ukraine of attempted incursions across the de-facto border into Crimea, the territory annexed by Moscow in 2014, Kiev put its military on high-alert and the Kremlin announced the start of war games in the Black Sea, raising fears of a return to open war in the country for the first time in more than a year.
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with members of his Security Council on Thursday to discuss mounting tensions with Kiev in Crimea. According to the Kremlin’s press service, the Russian leader pledged to take countermeasures “along the land border, offshore, and in Crimean airspace” against Ukraine, which he accused on Wednesday of sending intelligence agents into Crimea to carry out terrorist acts and provoke a conflict with Moscow. The Russian Defense Ministry also announced that it will hold naval exercises in the Black Sea — off the coast of Crimea — to practice countering underwater attacks by “saboteurs.”
The Russian drills — which will last from August 11 to 13 — are part of the already planned Caucasus-2016 naval exercises by the Russian Defense Ministry in the region, but their timing has left Ukrainian officials worried that the heightened military activity could escalate quickly into a direct conflict with Moscow.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko ordered his country’s army to be on combat alert near Crimea and along the front line in eastern Ukraine — which has seen an uptick in fighting in recent weeks. Oleh Slobodyan, a spokesman for the Ukrainian border guards, told reporters on Thursday that Russia has massed troops near Crimea’s northern border with mainland Ukraine.
“These troops are coming with more modern equipment and there are air assault units,” Slobodyan said during a briefing in Kiev.
The chain of events that have resulted in the current standoff remain murky. On Wednesday, the FSB announced that two different incidents had taken place: a raid on a terror cell in Crimea over the weekend that left one FSB officer and an accused Ukrainian intelligence officer dead, and an exchange of gunfire across the Crimean border that left one Russian soldier dead. Kiev, however, has denied any involvement in a terrorist plot or in a firefight with the Russian military, calling the FSB’s claims “false information” and accusing the Kremlin of using the scenario as a pretext for war.
U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt also disputed Moscow’s version of events, saying on Twitter that: “Russia has a record of frequently levying false accusations at Ukraine to deflect attention from its own illegal actions.”
Adding to the confusion on the ground, Valery Kondratyuk, the head of intelligence at Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, said during a meeting with Poroshenko on Thursday that a skirmish had taken place over the weekend in Crimea between the Russian military and border guards in Russia’s Federal Security Service, the FSB — not with Ukrainian forces as alleged by the Russian agency.
Kiev took further measures on Thursday, with Vadim Troyan, the acting head of Ukraine’s National Police Force, announcing that a kidnapping investigation has been launched into the disappearance of Evgeny Panov, the alleged Ukrainian intelligence officer the FSB has in custody. The security service says that Panov tried to infiltrate Crimea in order to carry out a series of terrorist attacks. According to reports in Ukrainian media, Panov is a former volunteer in the Ukrainian armed forces who fought in the war in eastern Ukraine against pro-Russian separatists. His family says that he went missing over the weekend and his brother reportedly believes he was kidnapped.
Amid the growing accusations, insults, and aggressive rhetoric from Moscow and Kiev, Poroshenko instructed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to arrange a phone conversation with Putin to discuss the mounting tensions. However, it remains to be seen how receptive the Russian leader will be to talking with his Ukrainian counterpart. During comments to the press on Wednesday, Putin accused Ukraine of resorting to terrorism and that continuing in internationally-backed talks on the war in eastern Ukraine — slated to pick up in a few weeks during the G20 summit in China — were “pointless.”
Both the European Union and the United States have tied the decision to remove economic sanctions on Russia to the success of the Minsk deal — the peace process brokered in the capital of Belarus in February 2015. However, both Moscow and Kiev have become frustrated with the stalled and often violated agreement. Russia has accused the Ukrainian government of refusing to live up to the terms of the truce, exchanging fire in eastern Ukraine and denying elections in the separatist held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk. Kiev has rebuffed the charges and insisted that Russia has no interest in observing the peace deal or preserving the status quo.

The Ukrainian version on kidnapping and border incident sounds like their usual damage control- who'll want to risk capture of their men while taking someone out of the country, just to later use him for propaganda purposes?

 

[Boatteacher]

It sure doesn't look like it though. There are no giant concentrations of Russian troops near the Eastern Ukrainian border. And the forces in Crimea are ill-positioned for this. Meanwhile Ukraine has declared large-scale exercises in Kherson, right across the border. To top it off there are dead Russian service members, captured Ukrainian personnel in Crimea, and a fairly muted response from Russia, so far. Finally certain "patriotic" activists in Ukraine have threatened to do things of this sort for a while. It's not inconceivable that a hair-brained scheme was cooked up by some part of the military. And it's even likely that if this took place, Russian intelligence services knew it was going to happen, and let it happen, so they could take them red-handed. Keep in mind, over the past year, the OSCE has consistently reported ceasefire violations from the Ukrainian side, and there is increased fatigue over dealing with that mess among many European nations. Then again, with this whole mess, who knows. Maybe it was all cooked up by Russian intelligence services as an excuse to take certain people under arrest and make Ukraine look bad. Of course it's hard to fake heavy weapons fire from the Ukrainian side of the border, which was reported in an official statement.

One thing I think we can be fairly certain of, this is not the prelude to a Russian blitz through Ukraine.

EDIT: I will write a bigger post with updated information, if I have time, after work.

Thank you Feanor. That gave a much better perspective of it.

I would hope the Ukraine isn't silly enough to make this a test of military strength and that it all turns out to be a few foolish individuals.

 

[Feanor]

The Crimean Incident

Putin's statement, the highlights.
-the Kiev government is illegitimate
-Ukrainian agents planned terrorist attacks in Crimea
-the Normandy 4 negotiations are pointless
-there's a connection between the events in Crimea and the recent assasination attempt on a rebel leader (Plotnitsky)
-the death of Russian service members will not be ignored

ЗаÑвление Путина по Крыму - влаÑÑ‚ÑŒ в Киеве захвачена незаконно.: eastdiary

The internet in parts of Northern Crimea has been disabled for security reasons. No word on whether it still is.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íà ñåâåðå Êðûìà ïîñëå ñîîáùåíèé î äèâåðñèè îòêëþ÷èëè èíòåðíåò

Ukrainian officials state that they have no intention of returning Crimea by force and that they "have no right to hurt anyone". A very ironic statement in light of their response to Eastern Ukraine.

Внезапно, Украина не будет оÑвобождать Крым.: eastdiary

During questioning Panov, allegedly a Ukrainian agent, has been giving up names of contacts and associates. He entered Crimea legally, and there is documentation on his crossing the border. Which shuts down the Ukrainian claim that he was kidnapped on Ukrainian soil.

Перекоп: ÐŸÐ¾ÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ - Colonel Cassad
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Çàäåðæàííîãî ïî ïîäîçðåíèþ â äèâåðñèè â Êðûìó óêðàèíöà ïîõèòèëè íà ðîäèíå, ñ÷èòàåò áðàò ïîäîçðåâàåìîãî

The arrested agents confessed that their intent was to sabotage tourism in Crimea by setting off several blasts with no casualties.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: "Êîììåðñàíò": äèâåðñàíòû â Êðûìó ñîáèðàëèñü "óáèòü òóðèçì" áåç ÷åëîâå÷åñêèõ æåðòâ

 

[Atasas]

The Crimean Incident

Putin's statement, the highlights.
-the Kiev government is illegitimate
-Ukrainian agents planned terrorist attacks in Crimea
-the Normandy 4 negotiations are pointless
-there's a connection between the events in Crimea and the recent assasination attempt on a rebel leader (Plotnitsky)
-the death of Russian service members will not be ignored

ЗаÑвление Путина по Крыму - влаÑÑ‚ÑŒ в Киеве захвачена незаконно.: eastdiary

The internet in parts of Northern Crimea has been disabled for security reasons. No word on whether it still is.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íà ñåâåðå Êðûìà ïîñëå ñîîáùåíèé î äèâåðñèè îòêëþ÷èëè èíòåðíåò

Ukrainian officials state that they have no intention of returning Crimea by force and that they "have no right to hurt anyone". A very ironic statement in light of their response to Eastern Ukraine.

Внезапно, Украина не будет оÑвобождать Крым.: eastdiary

During questioning Panov, allegedly a Ukrainian agent, has been giving up names of contacts and associates. He entered Crimea legally, and there is documentation on his crossing the border. Which shuts down the Ukrainian claim that he was kidnapped on Ukrainian soil.

Перекоп: ÐŸÐ¾ÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ - Colonel Cassad
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Çàäåðæàííîãî ïî ïîäîçðåíèþ â äèâåðñèè â Êðûìó óêðàèíöà ïîõèòèëè íà ðîäèíå, ñ÷èòàåò áðàò ïîäîçðåâàåìîãî

The arrested agents confessed that their intent was to sabotage tourism in Crimea by setting off several blasts with no casualties.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: "Êîììåðñàíò": äèâåðñàíòû â Êðûìó ñîáèðàëèñü "óáèòü òóðèçì" áåç ÷åëîâå÷åñêèõ æåðòâ

Poor ruskies, defending somebodies land...

 

[Feanor]

Poor ruskies, defending somebodies land...

First off we have forum rules against one-liners. While we sometimes let this slide, your comment also contains little content and seems designed to provoke. I strongly suggest you reconsider your engagement style.

 

[Feanor]

Questioning continue of various persons arrested in relation to the incident. The driver supposed to be picking up some of the Ukrainian agents confessed, and additional explosives were found hidden in the tires of his car. Grenades and detonators were found in the body of the vehicle. Also a canister of what appears to be napalm.

Apparently the intent was to have the Crimean Tatars, Muslims, blamed for the attacks. And Panov says that his job was to find work either at the Belbek airfield or the Simferopol train station. He was also told to plant fake IEDs, then call the police, and observe and document response times, and actions of the responders.

Finally, one anti-tank mine was actually placed, and since it was impossible to disarm, had to be destroyed by FSB sappers.

Свалить на муÑульман - Colonel Cassad

 

[Nick underscore]

In this situation - blame could be equally placed on either state actor. I wouldn't be surprised if this was originated on either side of the annexed line.

Feanor - you found any recent links/ Intel on the current state of Ukr forces (orbat-wise) on your recent follies relating to this 'Frozen' conflict ?

Cheers

 

[Feanor]

In this situation - blame could be equally placed on either state actor. I wouldn't be surprised if this was originated on either side of the annexed line.

Feanor - you found any recent links/ Intel on the current state of Ukr forces (orbat-wise) on your recent follies relating to this 'Frozen' conflict ?

Cheers

Unfortunately I do not have any updates on the Ukrainian OrBat. I have some info about their recent equipment purchases, and confirmation that they're re-manufacturing BTR-70s into BTR-3s, indirectly confirming earlier news that they can't really produce the APC from scratch, any more. I know they've basically completed the process of merging various separate btlns into existing bdes. I know some new bdes were formed, including a "mountain" bde which is really just an infantry bde without much armor.

 

[Nick underscore]

Unfortunately I do not have any updates on the Ukrainian OrBat. I have some info about their recent equipment purchases, and confirmation that they're re-manufacturing BTR-70s into BTR-3s, indirectly confirming earlier news that they can't really produce the APC from scratch, any more. I know they've basically completed the process of merging various separate btlns into existing bdes. I know some new bdes were formed, including a "mountain" bde which is really just an infantry bde without much armor.

Interesting and thanks for the feedback. Seems the information is scarce. I will endeavour further my side and post if successful.

That mech/mtn bgde would be the 2nd under formation.

 

[Nick underscore]

ISW have compiled a report illustrating the RF build-up and comparative changes since May 4th this year. Map of Russian military build-up

Primary reasons many believe the recent events are solely Russian-led actions;
1. Ukrainian Independence Day - Aug 24th
2. Upcoming G20 meeting - Sept 4th
3. Western-imposed sanctions, under review over the following months

Speculation on a 'flare-up' occurring between the 24th Aug - Sept 4th window.

 

[Feanor]

ISW have compiled a report illustrating the RF build-up and comparative changes since May 4th this year. Map of Russian military build-up

Primary reasons many believe the recent events are solely Russian-led actions;
1. Ukrainian Independence Day - Aug 24th
2. Upcoming G20 meeting - Sept 4th
3. Western-imposed sanctions, under review over the following months

Speculation on a 'flare-up' occurring between the 24th Aug - Sept 4th window.

Interesting. I can't speak for the position of the Russian state, but I would have thought that "everything quiet on the eastern front" would have served them better then this mess. And, again, no Russian response has actually come out so far. I mean a few harsh words from Putin hardly suffices.

 

[Feanor]

It appears that Panov, the first of the Ukrainian agents captured is indeed part of the Ukrainian GRU.

At this point, it looks like the Ukrainian explanation is dead in the water. For those who didn't follow too closely, it went like this.

1) His brother said he was kidnapped from his summer cottage.
2) He we to Crimea of his own accord to settle a property issue.
3) He's only a member of a volunteer btln, not really career military.

What they will say now, I don't know. Maybe nothing at all.

РаÑÑекречивание гоÑтайны - Colonel Cassad

 

[Mig-29M2]

The US will help Ukraine enhance its defense capabilities according to a cooperation agreement on defense technology. The agreement will improve Ukraine's Armed Forces which have been fighting in the ongoing conflict in the country's east.

US to help Ukraine strengthen its military according to a new agreement