South China Sea thoughts?
- Thread starter SpartanSG
- Start date
The main dissenters from the ASEAN statement were Cambodia and Laos, both closely aligned with the PRC
Not really. On many matters ASEAN has taken a common stand. With regards to the Spratlys however; it's true that the ASEAN members involved in the dispute have different ideas as to how to resolve the dispute. This is not surprising given that different countries have different ideas as to how to approach the issue and how to deal with China; to be expected given that different countries have different concerns and different levels of economic ties with China.
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If anything, I think that as long as China continues to take steps that are perceived as aggressive and uncompromising; the way ASEAN deals with China over the Spratlys issue will change. China's longstanding policy has been to capitalise on the various differences ASEAN members have and to deal with other claimants bilaterally but this might backfire. Frustration amongst ASEAN might lead to its members taking a more joint approach.
Revealed: The Truth Behind ASEAN’s Retracted Kunming Statement | The Diplomat
Revealed: The Truth Behind ASEAN’s Retracted Kunming Statement | The Diplomat
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Dispute on Indonesian Navy shooting and detained Chinese Fishing boat:
China Says Indonesian Navy Shot at Chinese Fishermen - ABC News
This is first time on recent time Indonesian send a Frigate to Natuna's water in SCS. This incident has been talked much on Chinese local media..some frm what I heard demand China send Navy Ships not CG ships to guard their fishing boats. The Indonesian send Frigates since smaller Indonesian "CG" boats being harrased (that Indonesian Maritime version) by larger Chinese CG ships.
However this kind of condition also potentially played by Chinese rival for economic contracts in Indonesia frm potential Chinese investor. Jokowi for instance already shown preferable treatment for Chinese Investment compared to Japanese ones..Now seems Japanese begin gain favor again in Jakarta..
On other spectrum..Philipines new President Elect begin to shown more conciliatory softer tone to China on Philipines claims..
Balancing move and counter move will continue circulate between China, Japan, US, Asean as whole or each individual countries..this will continue to be interesting..
China Says Indonesian Navy Shot at Chinese Fishermen - ABC News
This is first time on recent time Indonesian send a Frigate to Natuna's water in SCS. This incident has been talked much on Chinese local media..some frm what I heard demand China send Navy Ships not CG ships to guard their fishing boats. The Indonesian send Frigates since smaller Indonesian "CG" boats being harrased (that Indonesian Maritime version) by larger Chinese CG ships.
However this kind of condition also potentially played by Chinese rival for economic contracts in Indonesia frm potential Chinese investor. Jokowi for instance already shown preferable treatment for Chinese Investment compared to Japanese ones..Now seems Japanese begin gain favor again in Jakarta..
On other spectrum..Philipines new President Elect begin to shown more conciliatory softer tone to China on Philipines claims..
Balancing move and counter move will continue circulate between China, Japan, US, Asean as whole or each individual countries..this will continue to be interesting..
China is apparently lining up its ducks for when the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS), releases its ruling on the case the Philippines took to it against China. China has refused to recognise the jurisdiction and validity of the court. One Chinese method of lining up its ducks has been to fracture ASEAN and to coerce nations in an attempt to prevent discussion of the SCS issue in the UN General Assembly. Even though China is not recognising the court, it will not react pleasantly if the court rules against it and in favour of the Philippines, hence it has been suggested that the US and its regional partners must be prepared for such a reaction. The real point is that up until now the US and ASEAN policy of appeasement towards China has only encouraged China to further its ambition.
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Think_Tank
New Member
China in South China Sea
The truth behind Chinese annexation of Philippine sovereign territory is control of vast oil deposits discovered along West Philippine Sea after a joint energy exploration with Vietnam thru invitation of Philippine ex-president Arroyo (without congress approval). Evidence of large oil deposit was discovered adjancent to the Philippine oil rig (Manampalataya) extended thru Brunei, Indonesia and Malaysia. Control of Philippine island alone is insufficient that is why a new
9-dash line policy was adopted which practically engulfing all island belonging to Asean neighbors. China has achieved hitting two birds with one stone, control of energy reserves including conntrol maritime and airspace navigation in the region.
The truth behind Chinese annexation of Philippine sovereign territory is control of vast oil deposits discovered along West Philippine Sea after a joint energy exploration with Vietnam thru invitation of Philippine ex-president Arroyo (without congress approval). Evidence of large oil deposit was discovered adjancent to the Philippine oil rig (Manampalataya) extended thru Brunei, Indonesia and Malaysia. Control of Philippine island alone is insufficient that is why a new
9-dash line policy was adopted which practically engulfing all island belonging to Asean neighbors. China has achieved hitting two birds with one stone, control of energy reserves including conntrol maritime and airspace navigation in the region.
China does not really control the maritime and airspace yet. Yes they have pushed hard and fast for greater influence, but they know that the US and other regional powers are not going to fold up their tent.
Think_Tank
New Member
You are right specially when two of the US most advance attack multi-carrier groups Stennis and Eisenhower were recently navigated the area of conflict as show of force. I guess Chinese will fight for the control considering firm statement of dishonoring UNCLOS decision if in favor of the Philippine government. Recent observation conducted, China is developing another island after militarizing the occupied island fielded ASM, AAM and guns, SSM and cruise missile and stationing submarines and other surface combatant ships. At the same time I can comprehend tactical reason why there is a need for fielding artilleries too.
The Permanent Court of Arbitration has announced that it will release its decision on the Philippines Vs China case under Annex VII to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea at approximately 11am CEST, Tuesday 12th July 2016. China is still rejecting any award that the PCA makes. Regardless of the PCA decision, ASEAN will have to deal with Chinas response and China has been adept at splitting and weakening ASEANs resolve by putting pressure on Cambodia and Laos.
Just a minor correction, it was the Stennis and the Reagan, the Eisenhower is currently on the other side of the world conducting combat sorties against ISIS.
The news kinda of missed it, but June saw a huge surge in US Naval activity, with 7 CBG's at sea this last month. The Stennis and the Reagan in the SCS, the USS Carl Vinson off the US West Coast, the Goerge Washington was off the US East Coast, the George Bush just put to sea from Norfolk, and I believe the Truman's group is heading back to the US East Coast.
That leaves Nimitiz in Washington State finishing up a overhaul, the Lincoln nearing the end of a three year refuel in Newport News, and the Roosevelt in San Diego at low readiness, with the USS Ford nearing completion.
Just an update of what is where. The US Navy put to sea with a majority of its capital ships, an impressive display of power, and perhaps a clear message to any would be adversaries.
been done before - its a deliberate exercise in seeing how quickly they can pull together multiple battle groups into a mega battlegroup.
cdxbow
Well-Known Member
Whoops! https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/3...s-carrier-killer-missile-towards-china/#page1
Symbolic perhaps, of the newly elected DPP and it's less cozy relationship with the PRC. Dangerous times.
Symbolic perhaps, of the newly elected DPP and it's less cozy relationship with the PRC. Dangerous times.
Symbolic of their inadequacy, I would say. Now they'd better apologise properly, pay the family of the deceased, dismiss the officer responsible etc.
I don't think China will be intimidated by such acts of incompetence.
Cockups happen, in every military; even Tier 1 ones like the U.S. and others which spend much more on training than Taiwan does. I wouldn't be so quick to pass judgement. Sure, someone probably made a huge mistake and something went terribly wrong but I doubt it's indicative of the Taiwanese armed forces as a whole.
In 1992 5 Turks were killed and 15 injured aboard the Muavenet when it was hit by 2 Sea Sparrows fired by the USS Saratoga. Doesn't mean the USN as a whole was poorly trained.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Stuff does happen but considering the tensions between the two sides, any kind of testing in the area is not a great idea. Taiwan will be testing its anti-missile system in the US. It may want to consider testing its other missiles there as well.
Taiwan ‘to test-fire missiles in US’ as China tensions rise | at DefenceTalk
Taiwan ‘to test-fire missiles in US’ as China tensions rise | at DefenceTalk
Recently, CSIS organised a panel of speakers on "Anticipating the Next Moves and Countermoves" following the South China Sea Arbitration. Some of the comments by Ernest Bower on ASEAN is very insightful. Well worth the time watching on the options available to the US and the limits of ASEAN unity. See: https://youtu.be/6pNnIMkTimU
As Christopher Hill noted: "China obviously has the strength to drive out the Vietnamese, the Filipinos, the Malaysians, the Indonesians, and almost anyone else it chooses to confront. Southeast Asia represents but a fraction of China’s size and wealth. But does this behavior make China stronger in the region? Does a nineteenth-century approach to pursuing economic gain justify ongoing enmity with one’s neighbors? The peoples of Southeast Asia, after all, will be China’s neighbors for the rest of its history; while their knives may be short, their memories surely aren’t."
As Rimasta also noted in his post above, on the US Navy's deployment of two aircraft carriers into the region (USS Stennis and USS Reagan); and the arrival of USS Decatur, USS Momsen and USS Spruance in Singapore 2 July 2016 for a port visit (Third Fleet's Pacific Surface Action Group), serves to reassure the region and deter unilateral action by China to raise tensions in the days ahead of ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague on the South China Sea submission by the Philippines (please read the AMTI link provided here for the timelines before responding to this post). As the Philippines v. China case draws near, China is expected to raise the temperature with a few moves.
As Christopher Hill noted: "China obviously has the strength to drive out the Vietnamese, the Filipinos, the Malaysians, the Indonesians, and almost anyone else it chooses to confront. Southeast Asia represents but a fraction of China’s size and wealth. But does this behavior make China stronger in the region? Does a nineteenth-century approach to pursuing economic gain justify ongoing enmity with one’s neighbors? The peoples of Southeast Asia, after all, will be China’s neighbors for the rest of its history; while their knives may be short, their memories surely aren’t."
As Rimasta also noted in his post above, on the US Navy's deployment of two aircraft carriers into the region (USS Stennis and USS Reagan); and the arrival of USS Decatur, USS Momsen and USS Spruance in Singapore 2 July 2016 for a port visit (Third Fleet's Pacific Surface Action Group), serves to reassure the region and deter unilateral action by China to raise tensions in the days ahead of ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague on the South China Sea submission by the Philippines (please read the AMTI link provided here for the timelines before responding to this post). As the Philippines v. China case draws near, China is expected to raise the temperature with a few moves.
Anyone else planning to post in this thread, please take note of this April 2016 warning - we are giving one last chance to heed prior warnings.
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China has declared a "no sail area" of 100,000 sq km between Hainan and the island of Luzon in the Philippines. The reason given is for exercises being held from 5/7 - 11/7/16 ending the day before the Permanent Court of Arbitration announces its ruling. The disputed Paracel Islands are within the zone and the zone encompasses international waters. However it does not encompass the main sea routes for international trade. At the same time the Global Times has published editorials stating that China should prepare for military confrontation and "it should be able to let the U.S. pay a cost it cannot stand if it intervenes in the South China Sea dispute by force ... China hopes disputes can be resolved by talks, but it must be prepared for any military confrontation. This is common sense in international relations." (emphasis mine). Whilst the Global Times is not as authoritative as the Peoples Daily with regard to official policy, it is published by the Peoples Daily.
The Foreign Ministry spokesman stated: "China will work with ASEAN countries to safeguard the peace and stability of the South China Sea. As for the relevant dispute, China does not accept any decision imposed by a third party as a means of resolution, nor any solution plan that is forced upon China."
So the nationalist hardliners are calling for firm action and the official line is that they will not accept any form of arbitration.
The Foreign Ministry spokesman stated: "China will work with ASEAN countries to safeguard the peace and stability of the South China Sea. As for the relevant dispute, China does not accept any decision imposed by a third party as a means of resolution, nor any solution plan that is forced upon China."
So the nationalist hardliners are calling for firm action and the official line is that they will not accept any form of arbitration.
Re: the vast oil deposit. It's been much talked about, but I've never seen anything that says anyone has found anything there-certainly not anything to equate to "vast" (Bill Hayton's book says that the Chinese believe there's a deposit roughly the size of the Persian Gulf down there, something they seem to be alone in thinking). I think there's certainly something there, but I don't think it's nearly as big as anyone (esp the Chinese) are hoping, even granting that
Tim Newman, a Brit expat who runs the blog White Sun of the Desert and has worked in the oil industry for some 25 years or so, said a few years ago that he thinks we've basically found all the major deposits left to find-there will be no huge discoveries like the Persian Gulf that are easily extractable-and it will come down to effectively managing and finding cheaper ways to make current fields productive.
I don't think its about oil/fish or other resource, its just bonus. China expansion is to increase its influence in the region and secure sea lane for themselves, similar to many other rising/established power in the past. They have vast trade route via ScS, indian ocean, Persian gulf, and Africa coast, ScS seem like 1st step to secure it and expand from it. They have money to buy all the oil/resource they want, especially US now has largest oil/gas reserve, so we import less from other countries.