War Against ISIS

[Nick underscore]

Why would Russia want to do so? Lose the kuznetsov for any other tasks or roles, the PR weary Russians would also publicly point to a gap in their capabilities as well as a reminder of the downside of the Mistral deal not going through etc. Why not just use the bases they have? What is gained?

Some good points Wittmanace.

Although, not as being confirmed as yet. I believe there are a few reasons that RF is seriously considering deploying the Kuznetsov (plus group) to the eastern Med.

Much of my reasoning actually centres on what you have mentioned I.e PR angle. The positive PR gained, on the recent tactical strike from the Caspian sea, furthers my belief. That capability demonstration spoke volumes, domestically and maybe internationally as well..

If, the MetroJet airline crash is confirmed as related to 'Daesh', then I can see the scenario whereby the RF deploys the Kuznetsov as a signal of 'doing more' militarily.

Finally, I believe that that the current Russian SAG (Moskva Grp) is planing on returning to Black Sea over next 4-5 weeks now that the land based S-300's system's have been established.

Interesting article in the economist on Sergei Shoigu - Master of emergencies - Economist

I personally don't see the RF using the Kuznetsov in any roles other than recon/strike/ interdiction. In fact, I think this situation is ideal for the MiG-29K and live training Ex's

I guess we will find out more in the following month or so.

One thing to note, is that if she does deploy, it will be a crowded space with CdG and her Grp in the same AO.

 

[Feanor]

Finally, I believe that that the current Russian SAG (Moskva Grp) is planing on returning to Black Sea over next 4-5 weeks now that the land based S-300's system's have been established.

Did you manage to find confirmation of that? I haven't. All we have is unconfirmed reports. In fact recently when they released a statement saying they had deployed SAMs there, they listed the Pantsyr, the Buk-M2E (likely Syrian in origin), the S-200 and S-125. The last 3 are probably Syrian SAMs hooked up to the Russian network. They did not list the S-300. There were claims by the US of some sophisticated and unknown radar system that might be the S-400, but it could have been something else.

I personally don't see the RF using the Kuznetsov in any roles other than recon/strike/ interdiction. In fact, I think this situation is ideal for the MiG-29K and live training Ex's

I guess we will find out more in the following month or so.

One thing to note, is that if she does deploy, it will be a crowded space with CdG and her Grp in the same AO.

It's been expressed that the Kuznetsov will likely, from here on, operate with mixed Su-33 and MiG-29K air groups, the Su-33s flying air superiority, and the MiG-29Ks focusing on strike missions but this is unconfirmed.

 

[wittmanace]

Some good points Wittmanace.

Although, not as being confirmed as yet. I believe there are a few reasons that RF is seriously considering deploying the Kuznetsov (plus group) to the eastern Med.

Much of my reasoning actually centres on what you have mentioned I.e PR angle. The positive PR gained, on the recent tactical strike from the Caspian sea, furthers my belief. That capability demonstration spoke volumes, domestically and maybe internationally as well..

If, the MetroJet airline crash is confirmed as related to 'Daesh', then I can see the scenario whereby the RF deploys the Kuznetsov as a signal of 'doing more' militarily.

Finally, I believe that that the current Russian SAG (Moskva Grp) is planing on returning to Black Sea over next 4-5 weeks now that the land based S-300's system's have been established.

Interesting article in the economist on Sergei Shoigu - Master of emergencies - Economist

I personally don't see the RF using the Kuznetsov in any roles other than recon/strike/ interdiction. In fact, I think this situation is ideal for the MiG-29K and live training Ex's

I guess we will find out more in the following month or so.

One thing to note, is that if she does deploy, it will be a crowded space with CdG and her Grp in the same AO.

Sure, but all those points refer to the kuznetsov operating as a fixed wing deployment platform, whereas the Haiti reference was about the kuznetsov being used with rotary on deck and as an FOB with infantry. I think we are talking about different things. Kuznetsov deployment is not in itself the debate, but rather if it is deployed the incredibly low likelihood of the rotary and inf scenario.

 

[gazzzwp]

On my smart phone so linking isn't easy, but the US have used a Nimitz class carrier to deploy large numbers of US Army Blackhawks and infantry. I believe this was for the intervention in Haiti but need check once I have time.

A large carrier actually makes for an excellent forward operating base, its more a question of whether it can be spared from its usual deployment cycle to cover the contingency. I suppose this is why the US is ingesting in sea basing, so as to find an affordable way to get the same effect.

There is no mention of this in the popular media! Are the US covertly ramping up their campaign do you think?

 

[Nick underscore]

Did you manage to find confirmation of that? I haven't. All we have is unconfirmed reports. In fact recently when they released a statement saying they had deployed SAMs there, they listed the Pantsyr, the Buk-M2E (likely Syrian in origin), the S-200 and S-125. The last 3 are probably Syrian SAMs hooked up to the Russian network. They did not list the S-300. There were claims by the US of some sophisticated and unknown radar system that might be the S-400, but it could have been something else.

Nothing comfirmed from Russian MoD. Social media sat images mostly. Personally, I believe the assets are in-theatre currently.

Sure, but all those points refer to the kuznetsov operating as a fixed wing deployment platform, whereas the Haiti reference was about the kuznetsov being used with rotary on deck and as an FOB with infantry. I think we are talking about different things. Kuznetsov deployment is not in itself the debate, but rather if it is deployed the incredibly low likelihood of the rotary and inf scenario.

Ok aplgs.

I can't see any benefit (above capabilities and requirements in place currently) in rotary/ air assault operations from the Kuznetsov

Ironically, there has been a lot of social media chatter on more helicopter units moving into the Syrian AO. Maybe Feanor can confirm.

 

[stojo]

Syrian army made much progress today. They captured Al-Hadher, which was supposed to be rebel stronghold, and in just a couple of hours, captured most of the surrounding villages.

It seems the rebel front south of Allepo has crumbled. However, this advance also points out the weaknesses of SAA, since it is clear that they are advancing solely on those parts of the front, where they are supported by Hezbolah and Iranians.

In other parts of Syria they where losing ground.

 

[Feanor]

Nothing comfirmed from Russian MoD. Social media sat images mostly. Personally, I believe the assets are in-theatre currently.

Do you have recent OSINT sat-images? Could you link to it? All I have right now is this which suggests one of the radars from an S-400 unit.

Ð’ÑевыÑотный обнаружитель 96Л6 на базе в Латакии ? - Блог "ВеÑтника ПВО"

Ironically, there has been a lot of social media chatter on more helicopter units moving into the Syrian AO. Maybe Feanor can confirm.

It would make sense but I haven't seen anything yet. I'll be making another update post later tonight, I'll go through my usual sources in detail then.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Al-Hadr has fallen, and the Syrian Army has already taken Al-Eis. They're rapidly pushing for the Damascus-Homs road. It looks like the rebel groups in this area are just too weak to hold ground effectively.

ВзÑли Ðль-Хадер - Colonel Cassad

A detailed photoset from Kuweiris airbase, but the most interesting to me is the presence of what appears to be a single T-72B, covered in K-1 ERA tiles, and with a mineroller attached. This is standard Russian Army. It may be one of the recent deliveries of new gear to Assad, though the paintjob doesn't match. While significantly less likely, it may be a Russian Army tank, though the recent photos of cheerful looking T-90As from Hmeimeem make that even more unlikely. There are two photos of it, one from behind one from the front, but the quality isn't great, and the tank isn't a close up on any of them.

Also noteworthy is that unlike the recent photos from Latakia where the Syrian army is riding new GAZ Sadko trucks, and wearing Russian tactical gear, here we see up-armored pickups, and Soviet BMPs and MBTs. The individual gear seems to be Syrian, but a lot of it is just haphazard. Whatever was available.

Ð›Ð¸Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ñ„Ñ€Ð¾Ð½Ñ‚Ð° - ÐšÑƒÐ²ÐµÐ¹Ñ€Ð¸Ñ - Colonel Cassad

Soviet ML-20 and M-30 pre-WWII howitzers are apparently in action in Syria. Not the first antique to surface, but interesting none the less.

Gur Khan attacks!: Легендарные орудиÑ-ветераны, громившие нациÑтов, теперь иÑтреблÑÑŽÑ‚ террориÑтов в Сирии

Russian T-90As in Syria, probably part of the Hmeimeem base defense. Their presence was claimed earlier, and this is confirmation. The photos are from what appears to be a concert by the group Blue Berets.

Gur Khan attacks!: РоÑÑийÑкие Т-90Руже в Сирии - бойтеÑÑŒ "духи"!
Т-90Рв Сирии - bmpd
Якобы в Сирии - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
ВероÑтно Т-90 охраны базы в Латакии.. - Юрий ЛÑмин

What was originally thought to be an S-400 component may simply be part of a radio-technical unit there to provide airce control and awareness.

Ð’ÑевыÑотный обнаружитель 96Л6 на базе в Латакии ? - Юрий ЛÑмин

Turkish explosives in rebel hands in Syria.

Компоненты взрывчатки из Турции - Военный Блог

 

[Nick underscore]

Do you have recent OSINT sat-images? Could you link to it? All I have right now is this which suggests one of the radars from an S-400 unit.

Ð’ÑевыÑотный обнаружитель 96Л6 на базе в Латакии ? - Блог "ВеÑтника ПВО"

Cheers for the info.

S-300 and 76N6 clamshell - unconfirmed

Hard to confirm, but could be 30N6 Tombstone & the 76N6 Clamshell low altitude radars, plus the S-300 TEL's.

I'll dig out the other

 

[Feanor]

Cheers for the info.

S-300 and 76N6 clamshell - unconfirmed

I'll dig out the other

Russian commentators are saying that this is radar gear for a a radar unit, including some newer stuff like Kasta, PRV-17, and an unidentified one, possibly the Gamma. A P-18 was seen too. So it's likely a radio-control point.

I think we're going to need better images to get solid confirmation.

 

[Nick underscore]

Russian commentators are saying that this is radar gear for a a radar unit, including some newer stuff like Kasta, PRV-17, and an unidentified one, possibly the Gamma. A P-18 was seen too. So it's likely a radio-control point.

I think we're going to need better images to get solid confirmation.

Cheers. The position clearly hasn't been established, but this was mid-Sept

Do you think they're TEL's in the top (x3)?

 

[Feanor]

Cheers. The position clearly hasn't been established, but this was mid-Sept

Do you think they're TEL's in the top?

I can't really tell, but they might be.

 

[barney41]

The Paris attacks are being attributed to ISIS. I expect this to spur even more aggressive Coalition action on the battlefield. Awkward timing though for Canada who would be the odd man out as it will be withdrawing from a combat posture.

 

[ngatimozart]

The Paris attacks are being attributed to ISIS. I expect this to spur even more aggressive Coalition action on the battlefield. Awkward timing though for Canada who would be the odd man out as it will be withdrawing from a combat posture.

Daesh haven't claimed responsibility although they are reported to be celebrating the attacks and no official has stated that Daesh are the culprits. Having said that some of the attack methods do reflect Daesh style tactics, such as the executions at the concert. At present any news media outlets attributing the attacks to Daesh are broadcasting false information. As long as they state that they think it is Daesh because ........ that's OK but if they categorically state that it is Daesh then that is crap.

 

[ngatimozart]

As at 0600 Paris time (0500 GMT - UTC)

At present 153 killed, 250+ wounded plus five terrorists eliminated. The terrorists were executing hostages in the theatre. There has been no official confirmation of who is responsible for the attack, however there are unconfirmed reports from survivors of the theatre attack that the terrorists were saying that this was in response to Syria. There are reports that approximately 250 French residents have been fighting for Daesh and that some have been infiltrated back into France. This could be either Al Quaeda or Daesh.

 

[Toblerone]

A captured terrorist claims he is ISIS. That's why the media is reporting it as such.

 

[wittmanace]

In Britain the press started saying it was Daesh/ISIS after witnesses had said the attackers claimed to be ISIS during the attacks. As I've been listening and watching as opposed to reading on my computer, I don't have the link yet.


Edit 1:

There is also this though:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rime-suspects-for-a-complex-killing-operation


Regarding effect on French efforts against Isis, it seems opinion in France was already for more involvement before these attacks:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/paris-vs-public-opinion-on-fighting-islamic-state-1443465302

 

[wittmanace]

I see Hollande has just said Isis were behind it:



BREAKINGFrench president blames Islamic State for attack
Posted at 10:04
Francois Hollande has said the Islamic State is behind the attack in Paris, which he called an "act of war".

Mr Hollande said the attacks had been planned and organised from abroad with help from inside France.

He also declared three days of national mourning.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-34815972

 

[ngatimozart]

Update 1100 Paris time 1000 GMT UTC.

The French President François Hollande has just gone on French TV (broadcast live on Al Jazeera English) and said that Daesh has committed an act of war against France. He has declared three days of mourning. The casualty count has been adjusted to 128 dead and 80 seriously wounded. I don't speak French so had to rely on translation by interpreter on Al Jazeera.

My earlier point about claims by the media regarding Daesh involvement is that some media outlets don't let the truth stand in the way of a story tending to twist it. There is enough suppistions out there without them needing to be endlessly repeated as though they are facts. It just clouds the issues and muddies the pitch. I did hear the the reports of what the theatre survivors said but again that is just one more item of evidence that needs to be added to the mix. Just remember with the news media what the witnesses actually said and what is eventually reported can be different because the media will editorialise and may insert a word of phrase which changes the whole context.

 

[wittmanace]

Update 1100 Paris time 1000 GMT UTC.

The French President François Hollande has just gone on French TV (broadcast live on Al Jazeera English) and said that Daesh has committed an act of war against France. He has declared three days of mourning. The casualty count has been adjusted to 128 dead and 80 seriously wounded. I don't speak French so had to rely on translation by interpreter on Al Jazeera.

My earlier point about claims by the media regarding Daesh involvement is that some media outlets don't let the truth stand in the way of a story tending to twist it. There is enough suppistions out there without them needing to be endlessly repeated as though they are facts. It just clouds the issues and muddies the pitch. I did hear the the reports of what the theatre survivors said but again that is just one more item of evidence that needs to be added to the mix. Just remember with the news media what the witnesses actually said and what is eventually reported can be different because the media will editorialise and may insert a word of phrase which changes the whole context.

Agreed. I just added the point as to who was saying it and what their basis was. I think doing so keeps things a little clearer, I wasnt citing the media as gospel. Point taken though.