War Against ISIS

[A.V. Berg]

Deployment? Which part of the Caspian were these missiles fired from? When you consider their ~2600km range.

But you're right on the price tag. They're quite expensive. If they continue using cruise missile strikes, the bill will go up fast. Then again this might have been a show force as much as an attempt to strike major military targets. The Syrians are launching a major offensive right now. I'll make a big update post later.

Feanor, from the MoD video, it's not clear which part of the Caspian the missiles were launched from. Shoigu confirmed the ships involved: Dagestan, Grad Sviyazhsk, Uglich and Veliki Ustiug.

I wonder if strategic bombers will be used soon, especially if Iraq requests strikes. I think there is an element of showmanship but at the same time, cruise missiles have their utility that goes beyond shock and awe.

It's a rather paradoxical situation now. Just as the Russian military is on the verge of a relatively costly campaign, its budget for next year is likely to be sequestered by over a hundred billion rubles according to the Finance Ministry.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

The Syrian Army has begun a major ground offensive in Idlib and Hama provinces. These are the same provinces that have been hit most heavily with Russian air strikes. The offensive was directly preceded with a mass (by Russian standard) cruise missile strike.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñèðèéñêàÿ àðìèÿ íà÷àëà íàñòóïëåíèå â äâóõ ïðîâèíöèÿõ, êîòîðûå áîìáèëà ÐÔ
Бомбардировка позиций боевиков на Ñевере провинции Хама - Юрий ЛÑмин
ÐачалоÑÑŒ наÑтупление ÑирийÑкой армии - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
Ð‘Ð¸Ð¾Ð³Ñ€Ð°Ñ„Ð¸Ñ ÐºÑ€Ñ‹Ð»Ð°Ñ‚Ð¾Ð¹ ракеты ЗМ-14 - Военный Блог
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â äåíü ðîæäåíèÿ ïðåçèäåíòà Øîéãó ðàññêàçàë Ïóòèíó î âûïóùåííûõ ïî ïîçèöèÿì ÈÃ ðàêåòàõ ñ êîðàáëåé ÂÌÔ ÐÔ
Первое боевое применение "Калибр-ÐК" - Юрий ЛÑмин
ÐžÐ¿ÐµÑ€Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð² Сирии: удар Ñ ÐšÐ°ÑÐ¿Ð¸Ñ - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½
Ðу в общем как бы пора наверное? - Берлога Бронемедведа

Russian MoD lists from Sep 30 to Oct 10, they've carried out 112 air strikes hitting 19 command posts, 12 munition dumps, 71 armored vehicles, and other targets.

ЭффективноÑÑ‚ÑŒ авиаударов. Отчет Минобороны - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

Destroyed rebel vehicles, and a destroyed munition dump.

Результаты - Военный Блог
Попадание крылатой ракеты в Ñклад боеприпаÑов - Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна

Russian Il-20 over Syria.

Ил-20 над Сирией - Военный Блог

Interesting article from the independent.

Syria’s ‘moderates’ have disappeared... and there are no good guys | Voices | The Independent

And the Pentagon declines Russia's offer of cooperation in Syria.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñîåäèíåííûå Øòàòû íå áóäóò ñîòðóäíè÷àòü ñ ÐÔ â Ñèðèè, çàÿâèë ãëàâà Ïåíòàãîíà

 

[Feanor]

Feanor, from the MoD video, it's not clear which part of the Caspian the missiles were launched from. Shoigu confirmed the ships involved: Dagestan, Grad Sviyazhsk, Uglich and Veliki Ustiug.

I wonder if strategic bombers will be used soon, especially if Iraq requests strikes. I think there is an element of showmanship but at the same time, cruise missiles have their utility that goes beyond shock and awe.

It's a rather paradoxical situation now. Just as the Russian military is on the verge of a relatively costly campaign, its budget for next year is likely to be sequestered by over a hundred billion rubles according to the Finance Ministry.

They could have (theoretically) fired without leaving the harbor. They flew, according to MoD statement, 1500 kms with their max range being 2600 kms. It will be interesting to see this develop, as the Black Sea Fleet is the next recipient of these weapons. They already have two small missile ships, and one Kilo sub, all of which carry these missiles. They're slated to have a total of 6 Kilos, and I guess they will end up with at least 6 small missile ships if not more (though potentially some will go to the Northern Fleet).

 

[gazzzwp]

Let's not get too carried away, these capabilities are known. The russians have even had MIRV ICBMs with nuclear warheads for decades, haha. And newer ones on the way.

A thought. Was this cruise missile barrage a show of force on Putin's birthday? ��

I'm beginning to think that every Russian action serves multiple purposes. One of the implications of the cruise missile salvo is that another couple of hundred miles later and they can strike targets in Israel. Whether or not the Iron Dome can cope with them I don't know.

Another that comes to mind is what if a salvo like that was launched against a US Carrier Battle Group? Apparently in the terminal phase these missiles accelerate to hypersonic speed. I hope the US have adequate counter measures.

On the other hand, it should in all seriousness wake these NATO nations up a little about the need to boost the necessary defense spending.

 

[gazzzwp]

Well, NATO still holds technological, numerical and doctrinal advantage in most areas.

Some capability gaps have been closed and you are right, even in a conventional all-out war, Russia can inflict horrendous damage. In terms of capacity for localised conflicts however, probably some kind of parity has been reached.

Western media and even commentators lived under a delusion that only the US and few other states possess long-range strike ability. This of course is simply false because Soviets had SS 21 Sampson cruise missile which Russia inherited.

The absolutely new feature of Klub - which must cause some anxiety - is not only its improved capability but its universality. The Soviets were not too interested in conventional cruise missiles, whereas now, the Russians try and stick their Klubs into every type of vessel in all variants. There is even a version which is hidden in a shipping container and is offered for export.

I dare say we now have to revise, albeit mildly, our earlier assumption that the Syrian campaign does not cost much. Cruise missiles are very expensive and they rarely get launched in exercises. Plus, deployment of four ships is not cheap either, especially considering that the Caspian Flotilla has already finished its major exercises for the year.

The US generals have been commenting on the closure of the gap for some time and now I dare say that all commentators can see it for themselves.

I know that Tomahawks have a horrendous price tag of approx $1M each. Do the Klubs have a price tag anything like that?

 

[gf0012-aust]

The US generals have been commenting on the closure of the gap for some time and now I dare say that all commentators can see it for themselves.

I know that Tomahawks have a horrendous price tag of approx $1M each. Do the Klubs have a price tag anything like that?

my understanding is that they are a third to half the price - but price is relative to the economy

 

[KiwiRob]

Exactly. Ship-borne trade across the Caspian between Iran and Russia has been growing steadily since 2000 despite sanctions. One tell-tale sign of that is a spike in the production of river/sea class container ships by ship-yards on the Volga and modernisation of Iran's Caspian ports. So, once Iranian economy improves, already existing trade nomenclature will grow even more. Plus, with the lifting of sanctions, Iran will be able to buy things it previously could not, hence the purported 21 billion dollar deal.
.

What river sea class container vessels are those, there have been a few dry cargo vessels which can also carry containers, but no pure container vessels, the bridges limit cargo heights which means most vessels can only carry a single layer of containers above deck. What has been built in large numbers are river sea tankers. Krasnoye Sormove, Okskaya and Nevsky are all building tankers at the moment.

I was at the NEVA Exhibition in St. Petersburg two weeks ago, there were plenty of Iranian delegates in attendance, it's the first time I've seen Iranians in numbers at any marine trade show.

 

[swerve]

I'm beginning to think that every Russian action serves multiple purposes. One of the implications of the cruise missile salvo is that another couple of hundred miles later and they can strike targets in Israel. Whether or not the Iron Dome can cope with them I don't know.

Another that comes to mind is what if a salvo like that was launched against a US Carrier Battle Group? Apparently in the terminal phase these missiles accelerate to hypersonic speed. I hope the US have adequate counter measures.

On the other hand, it should in all seriousness wake these NATO nations up a little about the need to boost the necessary defense spending.

The missiles launched from the Caspian at targets in Syria are, AFAIK, subsonic all the way.

They're not the same as the anti-ship missiles. They're part of a family, which share elements. The missiles with a supersonic (I've not seen them called hypersonic - & if so, there have been many hypersonic missiles in use for decades, in both east & west) terminal phase have different propulsion & shorter (though still long) range.

BTW, why would Russia attack Israel? They're not enemies. There are hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens living in Israel (polling stations are set up for them to vote in Russian national elections), & tens of thousands of Israeli citizens living in Russia (mostly in Moscow, I think).

 

[A.V. Berg]

What river sea class container vessels are those, there have been a few dry cargo vessels which can also carry containers, but no pure container vessels, the bridges limit cargo heights which means most vessels can only carry a single layer of containers above deck. What has been built in large numbers are river sea tankers. Krasnoye Sormove, Okskaya and Nevsky are all building tankers at the moment.

I was at the NEVA Exhibition in St. Petersburg two weeks ago, there were plenty of Iranian delegates in attendance, it's the first time I've seen Iranians in numbers at any marine trade show.

I'll chase up a link, but I was thinking of the Lotos Shipyard in Astrkhan. You are right, I confused dry carriers with container ships.

 

[A.V. Berg]

Is there any indication what the Iranians wanted? Surely it' not to buy vessels?

 

[gazzzwp]

The missiles launched from the Caspian at targets in Syria are, AFAIK, subsonic all the way.

They're not the same as the anti-ship missiles. They're part of a family, which share elements. The missiles with a supersonic (I've not seen them called hypersonic - & if so, there have been many hypersonic missiles in use for decades, in both east & west) terminal phase have different propulsion & shorter (though still long) range.

BTW, why would Russia attack Israel? They're not enemies. There are hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens living in Israel (polling stations are set up for them to vote in Russian national elections), & tens of thousands of Israeli citizens living in Russia (mostly in Moscow, I think).

Thank you for the helpful info.

Israel and Russia have not been best of friends traditionally and also in the antagonism over strategic alliances I would have thought that that alone makes Israel vulnerable.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Apparently in the terminal phase these missiles accelerate to hypersonic speed.

these aren't hypersonic

 

[swerve]

Thank you for the helpful info.

Israel and Russia have not been best of friends traditionally and also in the antagonism over strategic alliances I would have thought that that alone makes Israel vulnerable.

What would Russia gain from attacking Israel? Follow the money - or strategic advantage. I don't see any gain to Russia at all.

Russia has some interests in common with Iran, but I don't think anyone could call their relationship friendship. Long-term, they're pretty inimical, unless Iran changes its ideology & ceases to be Islamist.

 

[barney41]

Just heard om TV ... BBC is reporting that Saudi Arabia will supply 3 anti-Assad factions with advanced weaponry as a direct response to Russian intervention in the conflict. Presumably an increase in quantity and sophistication over what they had been providing previously. No details provided but things could get interesting if these include weapons to deal with Russian aircraft.

 

[Goknub]

What would Russia gain from attacking Israel? Follow the money - or strategic advantage. I don't see any gain to Russia at all.

Israel has a record of taking out advanced Russian munitions delivered to their neighbours that could be used against them, SAMs etc. Long-term, I could see Israel worried about a Syrian assault on the Golan Heights protected by Russian air defence bubbles. Evening just threatening to support the Syrians would limit Israel's option..

All pie-in-sky stuff at this point but the ME is the place for that sort of craziness.

----------------------------------

What do the Saudis have? Javelin? Stinger? Or just larger quantities of TOW?

 

[Feanor]

Thank you for the helpful info.

Israel and Russia have not been best of friends traditionally and also in the antagonism over strategic alliances I would have thought that that alone makes Israel vulnerable.

I think I mentioned this earlier in this thread, Russia has high level strategic links with Israel. They're not friends, but tit for tat, they do business quite often. There is no reason whatsoever for Russia to hit Israel. And of course destroying Russian munitions sold to some regimes would hardly lead to Russian strikes against them.

 

[gazzzwp]

Israel has a record of taking out advanced Russian munitions delivered to their neighbours that could be used against them, SAMs etc. Long-term, I could see Israel worried about a Syrian assault on the Golan Heights protected by Russian air defence bubbles. Evening just threatening to support the Syrians would limit Israel's option..

All pie-in-sky stuff at this point but the ME is the place for that sort of craziness.

Just as an aside; Israel has apparently discovered a major oil pocket in the Golan.

That could conceivably be a significant factor in a future flare up in that region.

Potentially game-changing oil reserves discovered in Israel | Fox News

and please could people refer to me as Sergeant from now on :rotfl

 

[KiwiRob]

Is there any indication what the Iranians wanted? Surely it' not to buy vessels?

Vessels, equipment for building vessels, meeting with potential suppliers. There are Iranian shipyards on both sides of the country.

 

[Ranger25]

The missiles launched from the Caspian at targets in Syria are, AFAIK, subsonic all the way.

They're not the same as the anti-ship missiles. They're part of a family, which share elements. The missiles with a supersonic (I've not seen them called hypersonic - & if so, there have been many hypersonic missiles in use for decades, in both east & west) terminal phase have different propulsion & shorter (though still long) range.

BTW, why would Russia attack Israel? They're not enemies. There are hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens living in Israel (polling stations are set up for them to vote in Russian national elections), & tens of thousands of Israeli citizens living in Russia (mostly in Moscow, I think).

The Russians have zero incentive to act V Israel and they may not enjoy the results. The IDF remains one of the most modern and capable integrated forces worldwide let alone in the ME. Like Swerve said as well they have hundred of thousand ethnic Russians living there

Link on 10/7 IDF-Russian deconfliction talks

http://www.defensenews.com/story/de...-first-round-of-deconfliction-talks/73522760/



The IDF and Russia have had talks prior to the ramp of us Russian activities in Syrian indicating to me a level of communication to deconflict any potential military incidents


My thoughts on the Cruise missiles strikes is two fold:

1. Highlight to the world a Russian capability ( NATO takes note as well as foreign buyers)

2. Happy Birthday VVP, cheers to you

 

[wild_Willie2]

Syria conflict: Russian cruise missiles 'crash in Iran'

That is the risk of having cruise missiles fly over your territory...

U.S.: Russian missiles heading for Syria landed in Iran - CNNPolitics.com