War Against ISIS

[A.V. Berg]

The Turks have good reason to be worried. The priority for Syria and Russia will not only be to push back IS from areas they occupy but also to cut the land routes from Turkey.

It will safe the assume that the Iraqis are under pressure not to accept any large scale help from Russia, for which the right thing would be for the Sunni Arab Gulf states to provide more assistance to Iraq; unlikely to happen.

Even if the Gulf states wanted to help, they might find it very difficult to do so, bogged down as they are in Yemen. Maybe an odd air-strike and perhaps some financial assistance.
In the case of the latter, Iraq might end up buying more Russian gear on top of what it has already purchased.

I am somewhat surprised with the short-sightedness of Erdogan's politics. He huffs and puffs not realising that it may leave Turkey even more alienated from its neighbours.

 

[gf0012-aust]

I am somewhat surprised with the short-sightedness of Erdogan's politics. He huffs and puffs not realising that it may leave Turkey even more alienated from its neighbours.

well, he's juggling multiple bee hives

syrian kurds
iraqi kurds
assad
the turkish equiv (his) view of manifest destiny
internal party issues
the saudis
the GCC
NATO
egypt
iran
local politics

etc etc...... his "long view" is shaky at best

 

[gazzzwp]

So what are the rebels chances now? I would have thought their position looks impossible given the US' declaration to end support. To what degree I wonder will Turkey and the Saudi's offer support?

Where are people predicting things to go from here?

 

[A.V. Berg]

Gazzwp, you might find it interesting:

Why Russia Needs an Exit Strategy in Syria | The National Interest

 

[gazzzwp]

Gazzwp, you might find it interesting:

Why Russia Needs an Exit Strategy in Syria | The National Interest

Thanks for the link. Written presumably before the US decision to not provide further support for the opposition? Will the US still do this covertly? Given the state of US/Russian relations it is hard to see the US missing an opportunity here to at least see their adversary become unavoidably entrenched.

Unless for once the US is maintaining stricter principles?

 

[A.V. Berg]

Thanks for the link. Written presumably before the US decision to not provide further support for the opposition? Will the US still do this covertly? Given the state of US/Russian relations it is hard to see the US missing an opportunity here to at least see their adversary become unavoidably entrenched.

Unless for once the US is maintaining stricter principles?

Yes, it was written a few days prior.

I don't think the US made a blanket objection to all help. I was more the case of seriously rethinking how and to whom that help would be rendered. Even if the US were to completely opt out, that still leaves the Saudis to distribute military aid. Only yesterday it became known that five-hundred TOW missiles were delivered by Saudis to the moderates.

I generally agreed with how the article drew attention to the technological limitations of the Russian contingent. At the same time, I was rather amused by how the author thought that whilst air strikes against ISIS are useless, they could still do much damage to the moderates.

Last time US foreign policy reflected real principles was when F. Roosevelt was around.

 

[ryder004]

Well this could be a game changer
I can't post links yet since my post count is under 10 but :

A RUSSIAN jet has been shot down by Turkish forces after it flew into the country's airspace, according to as yet unconfirmed reports circulating on social media.

 

[Toblerone]

Social media, heh, if Feanor doesn't confirm it, I don't worry about it.

 

[RobWilliams]

I've seen it in The Mirror, The Express and the Daily Mail (not good sources) and in them there's only 'unconfirmed eyewitness statements'.

I'd say wait before believing it, It could be true, it might not, but the sources right now aren't credible enough IMO.

 

[Toblerone]

Someone just saw the planes and heard an explosion, supposedly. It was probably a sonic boom or something, heh. Well, hopefully.

 

[wittmanace]

For context, it is worth pointing out that when you follow the reports, the source is this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/yasseralhaji1

Who has had no confirmation. Also, the same stories that get updated (daily mail etc as cited above) have been referring to a mig-29 and saying it is Russian. The same papers did say yesterday an MI-24 was shot down..though that part was the only bit left out of the videos of the hind combat in several minutes of videos.

I'm sceptical. If there was a shoot down, I would imagine it would be a Syrian mig29 if anything. I doubt even that, to be honest. The provenance, lack of sources and lack of response and confirmation etc combined with a confused story make me think this is very unlikely. The hind shoot down disappeared as a claim from those same papers fairly quickly, where it was once the main line in the story.

Whatever one's views of these events, it seems rather poor form for the media to be trying to stoke passions and escalate things. Shoddy journalism at best.

 

[Vitellus]

The plan to connect north Iraq with the mediterranian through a corridor between Turkey and Syria has failed due the Russian . The pentagon must now come with a new Plan.

 

[wittmanace]

To be honest, until the Russians arrived, it seemed the problem was precisely that there wasn't a clear plan or, if there was, the problem that the different parties and countries had different plans or ideas as to how they were going to be enacted.

The large sortie numbers against Isis don't seem to have done the trick, not to mention the logic failure of attacking the strongest force opposing Assad, at the same time as opposing Assad and wanting him to lose, as well as not really do a great deal effective work to support the supposed moderate force (I'm guessing that doesn't include people like Al nusra etc, though I'm struggling to see actual moderates in maps or groups that show any military contenders). It seems to me the moderates, as they are being referred to as, went to the countryside leaving the heavy lifting to all those we are told are undesirables by various members of the western sphere (Al Qaeda affiliates Like Al nusra, Isis of course, the Kurds according to Turkey, Assad and his forces and their associates like Hezbollah, the NDF etc)

 

[2007yellow430]

This is an interesting spin on the Turkey/Syrian border issue. Wonder if it's true:

Russia “Violated†Turkish Airspace Because Turkey “Moved†Its Border | Global Research - Centre for Research on Globalization

Art

 

[gf0012-aust]

This is an interesting spin on the Turkey/Syrian border issue. Wonder if it's true:

Russia “Violated†Turkish Airspace Because Turkey “Moved†Its Border | Global Research - Centre for Research on Globalization

Art

I wouldn't put too much behind this article as its a bit "weighted" - eg it makes some pithy comments about other violations but ignores the other established examples of russia violating airspace over the nordic states in the last 3 years - in fact russian violations have increased over sweden, finland and norway by 400% since 2010. - so there is example of prior form by russia .....

I wouldn't be putting money on the integrity of the article unless someone trotted out the regional operating picture which would show track evidence of a violation

however countries are loathe to trot out the ROP as it can show their capabilities...

 

[Feanor]

I've seen it in The Mirror, The Express and the Daily Mail (not good sources) and in them there's only 'unconfirmed eyewitness statements'.

I'd say wait before believing it, It could be true, it might not, but the sources right now aren't credible enough IMO.

I've seen rumors of an Mi-24 downing by rebels, but no confirmations. Pfc Joker suggests that they may have confused smoke from the S-8 rocket launches with smoke from a damaged helo.

 

[wittmanace]

I watched the video supposed to include the supposed aftermath of the hind Downing. All it is is smoke near the camera operator, the smoke appearing to be the same as the usual after munitions have detonated there, as in the rest of the clip. The claim of it being just after a hind downing just doesn't fit the video either. People aren't moving to it or reacting to that smoke in any particular way.

It would be remarkably odd to film hind combat for minutes on end, from relatively close, and then to not include a shoot down, but include a little pan of some smoke after combat only.

I can only imagine what'll happen next time an aircraft of any type goes down. SAA FSA etc it'll immediately be said to be Russian no doubt, as the lines between Russian/soviet made and thus Russian, as opposed to Russian as in Russian armed forces operated, seem to have been lost on many members of the media.

I remember the daily mail briefly having a sub headline of American humvees surrendered to ISis(implying US forces surrendering to them the way the put it), when in fact they had been Iraqi army humvees captured by Isis. They did the same with the tanks, running a sub headline of American tanks being captured in combat by Isis. They also has been Iraqi army operated, and in fact stolen from a depot, not in combat, if I understand correctly. Quite a difference.

The sensationalism isn't a help. It's click bait.

 

[A.V. Berg]

Given how low some of these Hinds flew, it's a miracle they did not take any hits. Either the pilots are completely in the know as to any threats or absolute daredevils. I am pretty sure the Hinds rarely made attack runs that low in Chechnya let alone in Afghanistan. Maybe someone familiar with Soviet/Russian helicopter tactics can explain.

 

[Feanor]

Given how low some of these Hinds flew, it's a miracle they did not take any hits. Either the pilots are completely in the know as to any threats or absolute daredevils. I am pretty sure the Hinds rarely made attack runs that low in Chechnya let alone in Afghanistan. Maybe someone familiar with Soviet/Russian helicopter tactics can explain.

Low altitude, high speed, means harder to hit for small arms and AAA. MANPADS are another story. As for Chechnya and Afghan, not only Hinds but even Su-25s made insanely low attack runs. In the case of Chechnya there is footage of Su-25s going between two rows of apartment buildings. That low.

 

[chris]

Here's a nice article

Russia's Aim in Syria Is to Strategically Defeat ISIS and Al Qaeda | Alastair Crooke

It does a political analysis on what's going on, that people can easily agree or disagree with, but...

The three paragraphs starting with "So what are the Russians doing?", give in my opinion an extremely accurate view of the actual military objectives and scope of the Russian intervention.