There was an announcement made over the weekend by the budget secretary that the AFP will be receiving an additional P40 Billion ($960 Million) in the next 4 years at P10 billion per year and will come from government shares of royalties from the operations of the Malampaya gas field...
Manila Standard Today -- Military upgrade pushed amid Spratlys’ tension -- 2011/june/21
Hmm... If I am reading this correctly, then the AFP budget will increase by ~$240 mil. p.a. for the next four years. Afterwards though...
A $240 mil. p.a. increase would allow for modernization of existing equipment, and some augmentation/replacements. IMO however, that amount, even if held out repeatedly over four years, is insufficient to allow a proper fast jet replacement.
I think we must not pre-judge or immediately judge the purchasing desire of the P.A.F. in acquiring the modern fighter jets. We know the cost are high and the support and training needs a large sum of money, but if you have the desire and focus towards your goal the PAF can achieve them, specially the circumstances that is happening this time in west phil. sea or south china sea the government must enhance the capability of the AFP
The issue I have, and I suspect other DT posters have it or something similar as well, is just where a fighter jet would fit within the AFP.
There are a few very important concepts which must be kept in mind, and these concepts keep cropping up in my head, causing issues for the AFP.
The first is that the force construct has to be done at a system, not platform level. What this means is that the defence requirements for the AFP as a whole need to be considered, with priority given to the most critical areas within the AFP, relative to the likely threat matrix. A platform level consideration would be that 'the AFP has not operated fighter jets since 2005, so new ones need to be purchased," while ignoring the fact that half the fleet used to patrol the EEZ and maritime approaches and SLOC are WWII-era ex-USN vessels, where the original USN crewmembers are likely either dead or dying of old age...
The second concept, which relates to the first as well as the section I commented on at the beginning of this post, is how a platform acquisition needs to be handled.
First, based off the system construct one has, or one is working towards achieving, platforms which work within the system construct to provide needed/wanted capabilities are identified. Once the various required platforms are determined, consideration is given to the various raise, train, and sustain requirements for the specific platforms. In this case, for a systems construct requiring
nn fast jet-capability, decisions need to be made about which fast jets can deliver
nn. From here, decisions then are needed about how many jets are needed, in order to provide the desired level of coverage at any one time. At a minimum, if the objective is to have a pair of fast jets available to be scrambled from a single location 24hrs/day, every day of the year, that would mean at least six aircraft need to be purchased. Realistically, eight or ten fighters really be needed, and that would just provide a pair of hot pad fighters.
So, at this point the platform capability requirements have been identified, and the number of platforms required to provide the capabilities when needed are being identified. From here, funding is required to then purchase whatever the number of fighters indicated by the requirements, as well as sufficient stocks of parts, munitions and spares required to keep the platforms useful.
This is an area where I see some significant issues for AFP aspirations to re-enter figher jet operations. Going off of figures for recent fighter jet sales to other ASEAN nations, a budget of only $960 mil. is not going to go very far. Taking the Royal Thai Air Force purchase of Saab JAS-39 Gripen fighters as an example, it is/was estimated that each lot of six Gripens purchased cost ~$460 mil. with the total programme cost being higher since additional aircraft like Saab 340 AEW aircraft were purchased, as well as spares, training and support.
So, for an AFP budget of ~$960 mil. that would allow for purchasing only about a dozen Gripen fighters, including some spares and support training. Unfortunately, a dozen fighter jets is not going to provide any real fighter jet presence, especially in the event of hostilities.
Extrapolating further from that, it has been said that the initial purchase cost for a fighter aircraft is typically only a half to one third the overall cost of upkeep and operations for a fighter over its service life. That means if the AFP were to spend nearly $1 bil. to purchase fighters in the next couple of years, the AFP would also have to commit itself to on going funding for fighters over then next few decades of $1 - $2 bil. just to keep the fighters initially purchased operational and reasonably relevant.
Given the budgetary problems the AFP has been faced with, can it commit to this sort of funding requirement?
Lastly, I know I have been considering 'Western' fighter aircraft, and not including PRC or Russian aircraft, that is not an accident. While Russian fighters, particularly remanufactured examples of the MiG-29 might have a lower initial purchase cost than similar generation 'Western' fighters, they are also noted for having significantly higher on going operational costs and lower availability rates. Particularly when only operated in small numbers.
Another fighter purchase to use as an example is the RAAF purchase of F/A-18F Super Hornets. This purchase cost AUD$6 bil. for 24 fighters, and the price included the aircraft, training, anticipated parts, spares and support, as well as a weapons package and operations for ten years. Worth noting was that the advanced weapons package along was somewhere in realm of $600 mil. for PGM's.
So to recap, I suspect that if the AFP is serious about getting back into fighter jet operations, additional funding beyond $240 mil. per annum is going to be required and that careful consideration is needed to decide what, and how many, fighters the AFP wants and needs.
-Cheers
